The dawn of Week 15 signifies the start of the sprint to the finish of the NFL regular season. Bye weeks are now over, and each team has only four games remaining until the 32 teams are whittled down to the final 14 playoff contenders.
Seven teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention, with six of them coming from the AFC. Although it may not be the most high-profile game of Week 15, the Colts’ visit to Denver holds the highest playoff implications. If the Colts (6-7) win, they would be in a good position to secure a playoff spot over the Broncos (8-5). On the other hand, a win for Denver would bring them closer to clinching a spot in the AFC playoffs.
The most anticipated games of the week are the Battle for Pennsylvania between the Steelers and Eagles, and the Bills facing off with the Lions, a matchup that has the highest total of any NFL game this season at 55.
This week, we have a full 16-game slate, including a Monday Night Football doubleheader. I’ve included bets I’ve already made at the bottom of this post, and all lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Michael Corleone’s line, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in,” is the perfect way to describe my feeling about the 49ers following their dominant win against the Bears.
A lot of NFL media wrote off the 49ers following uncompetitive consecutive losses at Green Bay and Buffalo, which dropped them to 5-7.
The market also took note, opening San Francisco as a 5.5-point favorite against Chicago before the spread fell to as low as -3 by Sunday. San Francisco responded with one of the most one-sided wins of the entire NFL season. It was also a win for the Kyle Shanahan system, which made the offense work without Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, and Trent Williams.
There are still lasting injury concerns facing the 49ers on both sides of the ball. Nick Bosa, Isaac Guerendo, and Williams didn’t practice on Tuesday and are listed as questionable against the Rams. McCaffrey and Mason are out again. The unit I have the most uncertainty about in this game is the Niners defense.
By DVOA, the Niners defense is a top-10 unit overall. But it ranks just 20th in DVOA against the run and 14th in pressure rate. If Bosa can’t play, Matthew Stafford should have plenty of time to carve open the secondary, making this a coin-flip game. I’ll wait for more injury news to see if this line pushes up to +3 before potentially investing in the Rams.
Verdict: Lean Rams +2.5
Sunday Matchups
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
This matchup presents a classic scenario of movable object versus stoppable force whenever Kansas City has possession on Sunday. The Chiefs currently rank 30th in explosive play rate, making it a challenge for them to methodically advance the ball and score points. However, facing the Browns, who rank 31st in explosive play rate allowed, provides the Chiefs with a prime opportunity to generate big gains. It is worth noting that there is some wind in the forecast and potential showers in Cleveland.
The Browns should have success passing the ball against the Chiefs secondary, a unit that has not performed as well as it did last season. Since Week 8, Kansas City has ranked 20th in pass success rate allowed, coinciding with the absence of cornerback Jaylen Watson.
FanDuel offers the option to parlay the Chiefs to win the game while the Browns cover the +4.5 spread at +398. At this stage of the season, it may be prudent to acknowledge the likelihood that the Chiefs are destined to win every game by a one-score margin. After all, the Chiefs have outperformed their Pythagorean win expectation by 12.6 percent in all games since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, a margin unmatched by any other team (Pittsburgh is second at 7.3 percent).
Verdict: Pass, but consider the Chiefs inevitability parlay +398
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ 32-27 win against the Texans in Week 12 is one of the more puzzling results of the season and should raise more alarm bells about the Texans given how the Titans have looked for most of the last five weeks. Despite all the talk of the improved Titans offensive line in the offseason, only the Bears have a higher sack rate allowed.
Will Levis is still taking way too many sacks, and as a result, he ranks 36th out of 37 quarterbacks in success rate among those with at least 200 snaps this year. His completion percentage and yards per attempt haven't been terrible, but the sacks and turnovers are too much to overcome. By comparison, Joe Burrow, who is third in success rate, makes it hard to back the Titans in this matchup.
The Bengals have the lowest havoc rate—percentage of negative splash plays—in the entire NFL. They are one of the best teams for any offense to bounce back against, but the Titans might be unsalvageable.
Verdict: Lean Bengals -4.5
Washington Commanders (-7) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints have taken a hit in the betting market due to Derek Carr’s injury, but that may not be enough to secure a win against the Commanders. Both Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener have shown they are not yet ready to lead an NFL offense. And with Taysom Hill out for the season, the Saints won’t have their usual packages to rely on. Rattler currently ranks 43rd out of 46 quarterbacks with at least 50 snaps this season in success rate.
Last week’s game was concerning for the Saints. Despite Carr playing most of the game and facing one of the league’s worst defenses without Dexter Lawrence, the Saints only managed 4.4 yards per play in a 14-11 win. Their offensive line is still ranked last in PFF pass block grades.
Even with Drew Lock at the helm, the Giants offense outperformed the Saints. The loss of left guard Jon Runyan Jr. adds to the struggles of an already weak offensive line.
The Saints defense is among the worst against the run, giving the Commanders an opportunity to run the ball effectively and build a lead. Washington had a recent rough patch offensively, but seems to be getting back on track with Jayden Daniels nearing full health after the bye week.
Verdict: Bet Commanders -7 (-120)
Baltimore Ravens (-14.5) at New York Giants
Baltimore is favored by more than two touchdowns, making this the largest spread of the NFL season. The Ravens have had a bye week, but they are now facing a tough three-game stretch in 10 days with Pittsburgh next Saturday and Houston on Christmas the following Wednesday. This is a quick in-and-out situational spot for Baltimore, who has had trouble in the past closing out games against weaker teams.
The Ravens have a strong run defense, meaning the Giants will likely have to rely heavily on Drew Lock playing behind a makeshift offensive line to score points. It’s unlikely that this strategy will be successful. However, the large spread is due to the circumstances of the game. Betting on the Giants or passing may not be the best choice, as there are better options than hoping the Giants will still be competitive when down by 10 points in the fourth quarter.
Verdict: Lean Giants +14.5 or better
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
The Panthers are favored against the Cowboys, marking the first time Carolina has been favored in a game since 2022. Carolina has covered five consecutive weeks, coming off a close 22-16 loss to the Eagles in Philly. If Xavier Legette hadn’t dropped the ball 2 yards from the end zone in the final minute, Carolina might have won that game. It’s hard to believe that the Panthers would be laying points at any point this year, but they have the better offense in this matchup.
What impressed me most on Sunday was how the Panthers held up against the Eagles’ strong front. They’ll need that same level of blocking this Sunday, as Dallas has an elite pass rush unit, especially with Micah Parsons on the field. Carolina has a better offensive line, better quarterback, and more reliable run game compared to Dallas.
Since Week 9, the Panthers rank 17th in EPA per play on offense, while Dallas ranks 32nd. Bryce Young has been consistently making plays outside of the structure, reminiscent of his days at Alabama. On the other hand, Cooper Rush had a 36 percent success rate at home against the Bengals’ weak defense on Monday.
It’s possible that this line is still undervaluing Carolina and the market may not have adjusted enough by reaching the full 3 points.
Verdict: Bet Panthers -2.5 (-110)
New York Jets (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This game shouldn’t be on your screen, even if you’re a fan of one of the teams. It’s the only Week 15 matchup featuring two teams that have already been eliminated.
For gamblers, it’s an interesting matchup on paper. The Jaguars and Jets have been sharp betting darlings all season, as both have received consistent market support throughout the week and on Sunday from bettors with market influence. The Jets lost in overtime last week and landed right on the +6 closing spread. They still haven’t covered a spread since a Halloween win against the Texans. Bettors backing them have consistently been burned.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has been a covering machine in the last two months. Since bottoming out in the market with their Oct. 13 loss to Chicago, Jacksonville has covered the spread in six of seven games. They’ve only won two games outright in this stretch, but for bettors, the Jaguars have quietly been a cash cow.
The covering streak doesn’t make too much sense on paper, because the Jaguars defense remains one of the league’s worst. The Jaguars limped to 10 points last week, and it’s hard to imagine that will be enough this week to cover. But I won’t underestimate the Jets ability to go full Jets and finally put together a complete performance after they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention.
Verdict: Pass
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2.5)
Situationally, this game is a prime opportunity for Houston. We’ll see what Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has come up with during the bye week to improve their struggling offense. Despite the talent on paper, they have the lowest success rate in the league at 39.6 percent. Last season, when Houston ranked 20th, the critics blamed how much they ran on early downs. But this season, Houston is just 14th in early-down run percentage. C.J. Stroud’s passing has regressed, and the offensive line has struggled to protect him, resulting in one of the highest sack rates in the NFL. On the other hand, the Dolphins are top 10 in sack rate allowed since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion. (They also rank third in success rate and second in EPA per drive.)
These offenses are operating in totally different stratospheres, and we can bet the superior offense as a +3 underdog at multiple books.
While Houston may have the defensive advantage, and they have excelled in creating chaos this season, it may not be enough to make up for the offensive disparities. If Houston isn’t careful, they could lose the AFC South with upcoming tough matches against Miami, Baltimore, and Kansas City. While it’s unlikely, the Colts are close behind with a favorable schedule to close out the season.
Verdict: Bet Dolphins +3 (-115 at DraftKings)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4)
I think we’ve reached the peak of the market for the Broncos. Both the Broncos and Colts are coming off bye weeks, which could give an advantage to these two excellent offensive strategists. The Broncos won and covered the spread in their last two games against the Raiders and Browns, but they were outgained in total yards in both games. Only the Raiders’ struggles in the red zone and Jameis Winston’s interceptions helped the Broncos cover and exceed market expectations.
Denver is known for bringing extra pressure, but Anthony Richardson has done well at avoiding sacks this season. He ranks seventh out of 34 quarterbacks in sack rate, below 5 percent. While the Broncos have better offensive EPA numbers, it’s important to note that they have faced weaker defenses compared to the Colts, who have played the fourth-toughest schedule.
There’s a strong possibility for first-half offense in this game, considering how few negative plays each quarterback produces, the passive nature of the Colts defense, and the extra week of preparation for two offensive-minded head coaches.
Injury update: Josh Downs’s status is still uncertain for the Colts, and his presence is crucial for the offense’s ability to sustain methodical and consistent drives.
Verdict: Bet Colts +4 and lean first half over
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2)
This is the highest total for an NFL game in two years, and I still couldn’t possibly bet the under. The only two ways this game goes under 55 are if the Lions offense is extremely methodical and bleeds out the clock to shorten the game, or if there are a bunch of failed fourth-down conversions in the red zone.
Detroit should have no real issues carving open Buffalo’s soft zone defense indoors. Efficient running teams have been able to move the ball consistently on the Bills, and the Lions are as effective on the ground as any team.
The Lions defense has already passed its peak and the injury concerns are still lingering from both Thanksgiving and last week’s thrilling win against Green Bay. Josh Allen showed last week that he can propel a comeback by putting the team on his back and improving his MVP case, even in a defeat to the Rams. He’ll need to be near perfect to keep up with Detroit here.
A couple weeks ago, we probably would have been able to bet Buffalo +3 here. But the market has responded to Detroit’s injuries and made this line under a field goal. That turns this into an ideal teaser opportunity to grab Buffalo over a touchdown in a game that’s probably decided deep in the fourth quarter by whomever has the ball last. The Bills have only lost two regular-season games by double-digits since the 2021 season began—Indianapolis in 2021 and Baltimore earlier this year.
Verdict: Tease Buffalo up to +8
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
The Eagles and Steelers have the highest run frequencies in the league. Since the bye week, Philadelphia has been 10.6 percent more run-heavy than any other team. Jalen Hurts has seen an increase in his sack rate, hindering the Eagles offense. While he has minimized turnovers by passing less frequently and taking fewer risks, the Eagles are relying on their offensive line, Saquon Barkley, and a strong defense to win games. Philadelphia has played the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL this year.
While Pittsburgh’s defense can be exploited on the ground, it may result in long, deliberate drives for the Eagles to score.
Pittsburgh scored 27 points in their recent home victory against Cleveland, but it was evident that they missed George Pickens. The Steelers averaged only 4.3 yards per play and lacked Pickens’s deep-threat capability.
Pickens’s availability for the game is uncertain, and the Steelers may be cautious with him considering their tough schedule ahead. The Eagles excel at preventing big plays, suggesting a low-scoring game where both defenses dominate.
Verdict: Bet under 42.5 (-110)
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Six of New England’s eight games have gone over the total since Drake Maye became the starting quarterback. The market has taken notice of this trend, as the total has been increased to 46.5. The only two Patriots games that went under were the ones against the Bears and Titans, which says more about the state of those two offenses than anything else. Every offense with a pulse can move the ball and score points against the Patriots defense.
Arizona should be able to establish its running game early, and the Cardinals are a difficult offense to stop when they do so. The Patriots have a below-average run defense this year.
Despite the Patriots’ weak offensive line, this is another matchup where Maye should be able to get the ball out quickly and exploit an Arizona defense that has performed well above its talent level so far this season.
The Cardinals rank 14th in defensive DVOA, but have a relatively passive defensive scheme that allows for high completion rates—similar to the Colts, against whom Maye had his best game as a pro. The Jaguars, Colts, Falcons, and Cardinals have allowed the highest completion rates in the NFL this year.
All signs point to the Maye over train continuing, especially if the Patriots clean up some of the penalties and procedural issues that were present before the bye week.
Verdict: Lean over 46.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
The injury to Antoine Winfield Jr. is a significant setback for the Tampa Bay secondary. It comes at a time when the Chargers may be welcoming wide receiver Ladd McConkey back from injury. His status is still unknown as of Wednesday, but given that he nearly played on Sunday night, the Chargers could have him back for this game. The Bucs have had a favorable stretch lately, with games against the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders in the past three weeks. However, this upcoming game against the Chargers presents arguably the toughest defense they’ve faced since Week 3 in Denver, when they scored only seven points.
Even in their win against the Raiders, Baker Mayfield’s turnover-worthy plays continued to accumulate. The Chargers, on the other hand, lack explosiveness and efficiency but make fewer mistakes and are well-coached in situational play. In many aspects, the Bucs and Chargers are opposites. Tampa Bay boasts better offensive metrics and aerial explosiveness, while the Chargers are less error-prone.
Mayfield’s two additional turnover-worthy plays in the Raiders game bring his total to 20, second only to Kirk Cousins. Justin Herbert, on the other hand, has only 11. In a close game, that difference could be crucial. I predict the Chargers will win this game, but I believe the market has accurately priced Los Angeles as a three-point favorite.
Verdict: Pass
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
This line has fluctuated between Green Bay -2 and Green Bay -3 for most of the week. The Packers come into this game with an extra three days of rest, which they’ll need for their trip across multiple time zones. The total has been lowered from 47 to 46, which has been consistent with Seattle totals in recent weeks as the market starts to recognize the improvement of Seattle’s defense.
The Seahawks have allowed only 21 total points in the second half in the four games since their bye week. Mike Macdonald’s unit is ranked first in the NFL in EPA per drive since the bye, and first in the NFL for the season in EPA per play on third down.
The key to slowing down the Packers is not necessarily focusing on Jordan Love, but rather on their early down rush attack. Green Bay is in the top 10 in rush rate this season and the Seahawks’ improved early down run defense has been a key factor in their improvement as the season has progressed.
If you’re looking for the perfect second teaser leg to pair with Buffalo, then this is the spot. Seattle’s offensive line has stabilized with the return of Abe Lucas, and the Seahawks might be peaking at the right time.
Verdict: Tease Seattle up to +8.5
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
There’s a major difference in how these two teams perform offensively in the early stages of their games, which could offer some betting value in this matchup. In the first quarter this season, Minnesota ranks sixth offensively in EPA per drive. Since new offensive coordinator (and now interim head coach) Thomas Brown took over, the Bears have struggled to be productive early in games. Chicago ranks 31st in first-quarter EPA per drive for the season. In the four games Brown has led the offense, they’re 30th.
In its past two games, against the Lions and 49ers, Chicago has struggled to move the ball in the first half, gaining only 57 yards of offense. Additionally, the Bears defense is currently allowing the highest explosive play rate in the NFL. This presents an opportunity for Minnesota to establish an early lead, especially with Kevin O’Connell’s superior game plan. I would recommend backing Minnesota in the first half.
Verdict: Bet Vikings -3.5 first half (-110)
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Though he was carted off the field on Sunday, Aidan O’Connell avoided a major injury. But all signs point to a Desmond Ridder revenge game in the second game of this Monday night doubleheader. Ridder’s overall success rate numbers across the past two seasons aren’t bad, but his tendency to turn the ball over in high-leverage situations makes him difficult to bet on.
Kirk Cousins had multiple bad interceptions, but the Falcons offense was actually really explosive against Minnesota last week.
Atlanta managed 4.9 yards per rush and 7.1 yards per play while putting up 496 yards of offense. Despite this, the offense still has its problems in the red zone, and Cousins’s decline in completion percentage over expected in the second half of the season foretells some real concern about the sustainability of the offense.
Verdict: Pass
Bets from the article made for Week 15:
Carolina -2.5 (-110)
Miami +3 (-115 at DraftKings)
Indianapolis +4 (-110)
Washington -7 (-110)
Pittsburgh/Philadelphia under 42.5 (-105)
Buffalo +8/Seattle +8.5 teaser (-120)
Minnesota first half -3.5 (-110)
Chiefs inevitability voodoo parlay (Chiefs ML + Browns +4.5) +398
