It’s that time of year again—the Super Bowl is over and the streets of Philadelphia are presumably in shambles, which means it’s time for the NFL offseason to really begin. Free agency and the 2025 draft will reshape the league over the next few months. Here are the top story lines to follow this spring, from QB movement to franchise tags, rule changes, and more:
1. What will Aaron Rodgers do next?
The biggest story line of this offseason was also the biggest story line of last offseason … and the one before … and the one before that. Aaron Rodgers is about to be on the move again, after the Jets formally announced their intention to part ways with the quarterback in a statement last Thursday.
According to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini, Rodgers flew to New Jersey to meet with new head coach Aaron Glenn and new general manager Darren Mougey, after which the Jets made the decision to move on. Glenn and Mougey did outline conditions under which they would have been open to a possible return for Rodgers—including an agreement to do no outside media appearances during the season and to attend all mandatory practices in the offseason—but after that meeting it was clear things were over.
Most likely, Rodgers’s Jets tenure will officially end soon in a release with a post–June 1 designation, which will help New York shoulder the salary-cap implications of cutting him. Because they have the no. 7 pick, the Jets are unlikely to get a top quarterback in the draft, so they’ll most likely pursue another veteran quarterback via free agency or the trade market, like Kirk Cousins or Justin Fields, in the short term while they look for a more developmental young player at the position.
Other likely fallout from the Rodgers-Jets split includes uncertain futures for players like Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, both of whom followed Rodgers to New York and both of whom have contracts that make them candidates to be released.
For Rodgers, the first question is whether he wants to play for another team or retire. At the end of the season, he said he needed a “break, mentally” to think about his options. The next question is, if he does want to play a 21st season, which teams would be interested. Rodgers is a mid-tier quarterback at this point. He’s still an excellent processor and occasionally is capable of creating the downfield magic or off-platform trick shots he was once known for, though those come less and less frequently these days. But his physical skills are on the decline, and he comes with a lot of baggage. The Steelers could make sense as a short-term landing spot, as could the Browns or the Raiders. Or Rodgers could wait to see whether an injury to a starting quarterback creates an unexpected vacancy later in the year. And there is always podcasting …
2. Will other QBs be on the move?
In addition to Rodgers, other veteran quarterbacks could switch jerseys this offseason.
One to watch is Sam Darnold, who started every game for the Vikings this season after first-rounder J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus in August, requiring season-ending surgery. Darnold played well for Minnesota, and the Vikings could keep him on the franchise tag as an insurance policy for McCarthy’s return, though the cost would be significant, at around $40 million for 2025.
Last week, though, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell made it sound like the team would be moving on. In an interview on The Dan Patrick Show, O’Connell said that Darnold would be “the premier player at the [QB] position going into free agency” based on how he’d played in 2024 and would “have some opportunities.”
On the flip side, there have been some concerns with McCarthy’s recovery, which could change the Vikings’ calculus. McCarthy needed a second surgery in November to reduce swelling, and, while that procedure was not supposed to impact his timetable for return, The Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora reported recently that McCarthy still has “significant” work to do in his rehab.
If the Vikings decline to use the franchise tag on Darnold between February 18 and March 4, they could let him test the market when the legal tampering period opens on March 10 and see what’s available to him. If he’s not getting significant offers—perhaps something like the three-year, $100 million deal Baker Mayfield signed with the Buccaneers last offseason—he could be willing to re-sign in Minnesota on something less than the $40 million quarterback tag. But O’Connell’s comments certainly make it seem like the Vikings expect Darnold to play elsewhere next season.
The Raiders have $93 million in cap space, Tom Brady lobbying on their behalf, and no quarterback, so Las Vegas figures to be in the mix for Darnold. Other QB-needy teams include the Steelers, Browns, Giants, and Titans.
In addition to Darnold, Cousins is likely to find a new team. According to the NFL Network, there’s been little communication between Cousins and the Falcons since the end of the season. Due to his no-trade clause, Cousins has the ability to choose his destination or, more likely, put his foot down to essentially force the Falcons to cut him, so he can go where he wants, based on interest. The list of other veteran quarterbacks who could be on the move includes Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Fields, and Derek Carr.
3. Will the Rams be rebuilding?
Speaking of Stafford, Los Angeles is one of the teams to watch this offseason. Over the past few years, the Rams have shown that as long as they’ve had Sean McVay, a healthy Stafford, and a few star stalwarts like Cooper Kupp, they’re capable of keeping up in the NFC. But could this be the offseason in which Los Angeles starts moving into a new era?
The Rams have made clear their intentions to trade Kupp this offseason. Last week, Stafford’s wife, Kelly, said on her podcast that she was “confused” by that decision because her husband wants to compete and believes Kupp contributes to that goal. Stafford is 37 and still playing good football when healthy, but his injury history is significant, which could lead Los Angeles to trade him while he’d still command a significant return. If he does stay in Los Angeles, he may be clamoring for a raise, given that his salary is set to go down to $27 million this year after he earned $40 million last year.
Stafford and the Rams still work well together, but they clearly have a lot to figure out. If they can’t, he could make sense for a team like the Giants or the Steelers, but his departure would jump-start a true rebuild for McVay’s team.
4. Which non-QBs might get traded?
Super Bowl week brought a slew of news reports regarding high-profile players potentially being traded. Kupp was one. Myles Garrett was another, though Browns general manager Andrew Berry has said he plans on keeping the elite pass rusher in Cleveland.
And on Super Bowl Sunday, Adam Schefter reported that the 49ers had given receiver Deebo Samuel and his agents permission to seek a trade.
If Garrett does move, he could command a significant return in the range of a high first-round draft pick, or a first-rounder and additional draft picks. Garrett’s goal is to get to a contending team, so the Bills, Lions, Eagles, Commanders, or Chargers could all make sense.
The 49ers aren’t likely to get much in return for Samuel, given that he’s set to hit free agency in 2026 and would therefore require an extension from his new team, and given that it seems possible that if they can’t find a trading partner soon, the 49ers could release him instead of picking up his $15 million option bonus that kicks in on March 22. Still, he’s an electric player at his best and could make an impact wherever he lands.
Other names to watch include Tee Higgins in a tag-and-trade situation or—maybe—Micah Parsons in Dallas, if things go badly in contract negotiations.
5. Will Joe Burrow’s pressure campaign on the Bengals work?
Speaking of Higgins, who would cost Cincinnati more than $26 million on a second consecutive franchise tag, something that’s looking increasingly likely, his quarterback did some lobbying on his behalf last week.
“The Eagles are paying everybody,” Burrow said on the podcast Pardon My Take. “That seems like the way.”
Burrow then advocated for the Bengals to restructure contracts, including his own, to be able to bring back Higgins while also extending receiver Ja’Marr Chase, pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, and tight end Mike Gesicki.
“You could convert some of the money to a signing bonus, which will lower the cap hit,” Burrow said. “You can push some of the money to the back end of the contract. That lowers the cap hit. And then when you get to the back end of the contract, you can restructure it and convert it to a signing bonus.”
The Bengals have $46 million in cap room this offseason, according to Over the Cap. Extending Chase will be a top priority, but how that extension shapes up and the rest of Cincinnati’s moves will reveal how invested the organization is in maximizing its window with Burrow. And given that the quarterback has begun speaking out about what he wants them to do, it’s possible there’s a new, relationship-management component to this story.
6. Who are franchise tag candidates?
There aren’t many obvious franchise tag candidates this year, due to a combination of team financial constraints and players who are a better fit to just extend. So expect a quiet tag deadline on March 4, though there are still a few players, like Higgins or Darnold, who could be tagged.
Another possibility is Kansas City guard Trey Smith. The franchise tag for offensive linemen is calculated using the contract numbers for all positions across the line, and since tackles tend to earn the most, it’s rare for a team to use the tag on an interior lineman. That said, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Chiefs use the franchise tag on Smith, which would cost the team around $23 million for 2025. That’s a big move for Kansas City financially, but Smith would be one of the top free agents in this year’s class if he did hit the market, and the Chiefs probably want to avoid losing one of their better interior linemen when they have issues to address at tackle this offseason.
In Miami, safety Jevon Holland could probably command near the $18 million projected tag value on the open market, so the Dolphins could see the value in having him stick around. Money is tight, though. The Dolphins project to be near the bottom of the league in expected cap room and are currently in the red, according to Over the Cap.
7. How will a weak QB draft shape the offseason?
Right now, I can’t say this is the most highly anticipated draft class we’ve seen in recent years. There are only two quarterbacks, Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, who are surefire first-round picks, and it’s not even clear whether the top skill-position player, Colorado’s Travis Hunter, will be a cornerback or a receiver in the NFL. This draft is deep at defensive tackle and running back, positions that aren’t traditionally high-value.
It’s possible that the relative lack of buzz about this class could spur teams to action in free agency or via trade or to hang on to players they might otherwise have sought to replace.
Then again, it’s only February. We know that draft perception can change dramatically in a short period of time, especially when events like combine meetings and pro days come around.
8. What rule changes are on the horizon?
There are a few rules changes on the table for 2025. The first involves the new kickoff rules that the league tested out last season. Team owners in March will decide whether or not to make the dynamic kickoff permanent. The new kickoff was generally successful in increasing the return rate, from 21.8 percent in 2023 to 32.8 percent last season, and league officials said recently that the rule change helped reduce concussions by 43 percent on kickoffs.
Still, there’s a sense that maybe the new kickoff rules didn’t go far enough and that additional changes, like moving touchbacks from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line and developing a new alternative to the onside kick, could lead to more exciting plays. The league certainly won’t go back to the old rules, and it could just make the existing rules permanent, but it’s possible the league will go further this offseason.
It’s also possible, after ~the refs~ were a frequent topic of discussion this season and postseason, that there will be additional discussion of using technology and replay review to assist (or overturn) calls made on the field. NFL officials have suggested that face mask penalties—including missed face mask calls—could join the list of calls subject to replay assistance next season. That’s significant because the league has historically been hesitant to give replay review the authority to call a missed penalty, only to adjust those that have been called.
9. Will Travis Kelce retire?
It’s possible that one of the most—if not the most—recognizable faces in the NFL could hang ’em up this offseason. The Chiefs have reportedly given Kelce until mid-March to decide whether he wants to come back for another season in 2025.
Kelce has an $11.5 million roster bonus that’s due on March 15, the effective deadline for him to make the call. If he retires, he’d be going out on a low note—just four receptions on six targets for 39 yards in the Super Bowl loss, all of which came in the second half. But that result was perhaps emblematic of a reason that Kelce could want to walk away, as it’s becoming clear that years of hits and extended seasons have taken a toll on him. Kelce has started more than a full season’s worth of playoff games since Mahomes came to Kansas City in 2017.
Kelce also, obviously, has a lot of opportunities waiting for him outside of football, and a rather famous girlfriend he might enjoy spending more time with if he chooses to walk away.
10. What will up-and-coming teams do to get better, fast?
Offseason roster overhauls, especially those executed mostly by spending big in free agency, don’t always work out for the best. But there are several teams who enter this offseason in a good spot—with a young quarterback in place and money to spend rounding out the roster. The Patriots, Commanders, and Bears all fit this description, ranking inside the top six teams by salary cap room this offseason and having no need to go after a quarterback. New England has an NFL-high $119 million in cap space, while the Commanders have $75 million and the Bears have $62 million. The Chargers are in a different place, roster-wise, given that Justin Herbert is a highly paid quarterback already on his second contract, but they fit some of this description, too—they’re fifth in the league with $63 million in projected cap room.
New England and Washington both badly need offensive line and receiver help. The Bears need to build up both lines. The Chargers need defensive playmakers. But at least they have the means to spend to get them.
