The World Cup enters its knockout stage this weekend, which means we’ll see heartbreak and joy in every game. From multigoal thrillers to dour defensive battles that lead to anxiety-inducing penalty shootouts, the emotional roller coaster is about to ramp up a notch. Here are some statistical primers derived from the World Cup data collected by StatsBomb during the group stages.
Can Isco Drive Aging Spain?
Two teams have stood out during the group stage for their sheer volume of passing: Spain and the now-eliminated Germany. The circumstances surrounding this were different; Spain has a core that dates back to their world champion team of 2010, and still play a fairly pass-heavy brand of football, looking to dominate the ball high up the pitch with their technical adeptness. Germany, with a core that dates back to their world champion team of 2014, couldn’t buy a break in front of goal and spent nearly the entire tournament trying to peg back the opposition or gain a lead. That they weren’t quite good enough to do that was revealing: They were fundamentally short of ideas.
Spain have veterans Andrés Iniesta and David Silva putting in significant pass volume up the pitch (34 and 31 successful final-third passes per 90 minutes, respectively), but it is Isco who is leading the way with more than 40. At 26 years old, the Real Madrid man is the present and the future of the Spanish national side, and ahead of a possibly heavy schedule—up to four games in 15 days—they will need him to retain top form. His 5.5 passes per game directly into the box is significantly ahead of anyone else on his team (next best Dani Carvajal with 2.2), while his rate for successful dribbles (4.6 per game) again leads his team and is more than double that of next best Iniesta (2.2).
Spain have talent throughout their side, but are also aging in key areas. The younger legs of Isco and how he interacts with his teammates in the final third of the pitch may be a major factor in how far they go from here.
Uruguay’s Defense
Behind their star-studded forward line of Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez, Uruguay’s defense could well be a decisive factor in determining how far they go in this competition. They won all their group games and have yet to concede a goal, a feat last achieved by Argentina in 1998. Uruguay simply haven’t been threatened by anyone they’ve played, as we can see here via their opponents’ combined shot map:
There is a huge gap right where you would expect shots to exist: in front of goal. Part of this is the central defensive partnership formed by Diego Godín and José Giménez (although Giménez was replaced by Sebastián Coates for the final group game). The Atlético Madrid teammates have been primed by playing in one of Europe’s most reliable defenses in their club careers, and Godín in particular has stood out. But Uruguay’s defense is really a team effort. They have allowed only two of these 19 shots within 10 seconds of the opposition getting the ball, which is the best record in the entire tournament. And they have been sufficiently compact to stop the opposition from attacking with any speed.
The big question from here is how much of this is down to the relative quality of the opposition they’ve faced. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were generally poor, while the match to decide the group saw Russia reduced to 10 men by an Igor Smolnikov red card in the first half. We will find out soon enough, though: Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal now await them.
Brazilian Flair
Ah, Neymar. Ever divisive Neymar.
When there are compilations of a player’s best dives that date back five years, you know you’re dealing with one of the world’s best, and this World Cup has not disappointed. A VAR overturned penalty call against Costa Rica was followed up with further exaggerated shenanigans against Serbia. It makes him hard to like.
What makes Neymar easier to like are the tricks and the flair. Only four players have completed two nutmegs in this entire tournament and he’s one of them. He also leads the tournament for successful backheel passes with six. And no player has completed more dribbles; Neymar’s 20 leads the way, ahead of Lionel Messi’s 18. This is what you also get from Neymar: plenty of entertainment.
But is it frivolous?
Brazil’s attack hasn’t quite kicked into top gear yet, and it’s arguable that it is Philippe Coutinho rather than Neymar who has been their most decisive attacker. The Barcelona midfielder has two goals and an assist, of which each has been an opening goal, while Neymar’s one goal and one assist have come late in matches and gilded solid but unspectacular performances. There’s also a growing view that Neymar slows down Brazil’s attack by holding the ball too long—he completes so many dribbles partly because he attempts so many. Only Morocco’s Hakim Ziyech has lost possession more frequently in this way.
Neymar clearly sees himself as Brazil’s main man. That’s fine as long as the results keep coming, but without a little humility and team focus, there could be a greater chance that Neymar’s eventual legacy will end up less like his former teammate Lionel Messi, and more like another wayward genius with a penchant for the extravagant: Ronaldinho.
Deschamps the Denier
On paper, this France side should be thrilling us. In reality, they are making themselves hard to beat and edging out results. That manager Didier Deschamps has apparently decided to join the Louis van Gaal school of pragmatic football is possibly not surprising: in six years running France, the team has rarely added up to a sum of their parts. A runner-up slot in the 2016 Euros kept him off the hot seat, but as ever he’s under pressure to deliver.
France emerged from their group with because of their defense—an expected goal rate against of below a quarter of a goal a game is a solid foundation for success. The only goal they did allow was a penalty following a bizarre, flailing hand error from defender Samuel Umtiti in their opening game against Australia. The Van Gaal comparison may overstate Deschamps’s nous, but no team has featured fewer shots in its games (below 19 per game) and no team has had such talented players create so little (three goals all in), both clear hallmarks of late-stage LVG.
As ever, Paul Pogba has garnered attention, having a hand in all three French goals, supplying the ball for Antoine Griezmann that generated France’s penalty against Australia, pressuring high up the pitch to force the own goal that won them the same game, and being involved in the build-up for the game-winner against Peru. However, it’s possible that his interaction with his teammates in defense is helping too. This zone, where France have allowed practically nothing in the way of opposition shots, is right behind Pogba’s normal position:
With Blaise Matuidi, Steven N’Zonzi, and N’Golo Kanté in the squad, France have midfielders that can provide the platform from which Pogba can play bold football. Their round of 16 matchup with Argentina looks like a huge mismatch in that area too. At 34 years old, a bloodied Javier Mascherano showed against Nigeria that while he may have enough fight to win a midfield battle, he will struggle in the war with more organized and physically dominant opponents. Éver Banega showed passing range in that Nigeria match, but France have a constrictive focus that can continue to eke out further wins. Lionel Messi may need to perform magic again.
England’s Idiosyncrasies
Eight goals in two games and two wins against inferior opposition meant that England qualified readily from Group G alongside Belgium. However, it’s tricky to get a solid handle on how good they really are. The defense has looked capable for the most part, with a distinct lack of high-quality chances allowed. And of the three goals England conceded in the group stage, two were broadly explainable. Only Felipe Baloy’s late consolation for Panama, while that side was down 6-0, should cause any real worry, given how readily it beat England’s defense from a set piece.
You face England and you might start to think you know what’s coming. The England attack is set-piece heavy. After the first two games, that reliance on set pieces contributed to England’s entries into the opposition penalty box by way of a cross being a tournament high 78 percent. While England have prospered via the dead ball, they have been oddly deficient in creating from open play. By the time they had reached 6-0 mark against Panama, they had taken only one shot inside the box in open play—Harry Kane’s deflected sixth goal. The Belgium game taught us little, as the two teams of backup players battled it out. The last time we saw England really click in attack was in the first 30 minutes of their opening game, when they created a host of chances but scored just once—from a corner. Set-piece heaven.
Gareth Southgate has gotten buy-in from his young team. Only Spain are recording pressure events higher up the pitch than England and the set-piece focus is a welcome edge to exploit. Yet deploying a method to squeeze every last benefit from the squad may go only so far. There’s still the nagging feeling that a lack of quality, especially in midfield and in open play, may find England out.
All statistics used in this article via StatsBomb.