Now that Anthony Davis has requested a trade from the New Orleans Pelicans, the sweepstakes for one of the NBA’s generational talents has officially begun. The Pelicans released a statement on Monday that made it clear that the organization doesn’t feel pressured to trade Davis before the February 7 deadline. “[W]e will do this on our terms and our timeline,” the statement read. Waiting until the summer could be the prudent path for the Pelicans, since more teams will have assets, which can lead to stronger trade offers. On the other hand, the Pelicans can probably leverage that fact against the teams (i.e., the Los Angeles Lakers) willing to go all in on an offer in the next 10 days. There are plenty of pros and cons to delaying the inevitable. Let’s go over them all.
New Orleans has options right now. The Lakers, Knicks, Bucks, and Raptors are expected to make trade offers for Davis ahead of the deadline, according to multiple front-office sources. To some degree, every team will at least consider making an offer. But the Nuggets are considered by front-office executives as the off-the-radar team that actually has the assets to complete a deal, should they choose to enter the sweepstakes.
There have been rumblings since early January that Davis would request a trade by the end of the month, but front-office executives I spoke with still find the timing to be curious. One factor is clear, though: By requesting a trade now through his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, the window has been pried open for the Lakers to at least have a shot at landing Davis. The longer this drama drags along, the harder it will be for the Lakers, because teams like the Celtics, Knicks, and maybe others will be able to tap into different resources. The Lakers’ brass of Rob Pelinka and Magic Johnson will be aggressive in pushing for a deal now, per league sources, knowing that if they wait, they will likely lose Davis.
Every Lakers asset not named LeBron James (also a Klutch client) should be available, and they will be. But the value of some of the Lakers’ top young players has depreciated over the course of this season. Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, the team’s two recent no. 2 overall draft picks, haven’t made a leap playing alongside LeBron, nor have they proved that they can shoot efficiently. Ingram is scoring only 0.86 points per possession in the half court, a dismal number, and Ball is even worse, at 0.77 points per possession, per Synergy Sports. Kyle Kuzma, their other notable recent first-round pick, also still hasn’t shown he can do much consistently besides score. Still, all these players are young and talented and have flashed the upside to be starters on a championship roster; Ingram, despite his recent struggle, is still a 21-year-old, 6-foot-9 forward who can make plays for himself and others. An offer including Ingram and any other young players on the roster, plus three or four unprotected first-round picks, is strong, and should at least be considered by the Pelicans.
The Pelicans won’t necessarily oblige. The timing of the request doesn’t beget much goodwill from them; in a statement, the Pelicans said that their decision won’t be “dictated by those outside of our organization,” and they’ve requested that the NBA “strictly enforce the tampering rules associated with this transaction.” Plug that into Google Translate and you’ll get a bunch of expletives directed at the Lakers and Klutch Sports. Davis, who purchased a $7.5 million home in Westlake Village, a suburb of Los Angeles, this past summer, could have a desire to play for the Lakers, but the Pelicans will be taking the best offer regardless of their star player’s wishes, like the Pacers and Spurs did before them.
What the player wants can impact the incoming offers, though. The Lakers and Knicks can feel confident that Davis would re-sign long term should they land him in a trade, which could embolden them to make the sort of all-in offer that other teams can’t. How much of an advantage that is, however, is debatable. Since Davis can’t become an unrestricted free agent until 2020, teams that aren’t the Lakers or Knicks have the luxury of time. Even if they doubted that Davis would re-sign with them past his current contract, they could still make a run with him this season and trade him again this offseason, or up until the 2020 trade deadline.
Take the Raptors, for example. If Raptors president Masai Ujiri were to theoretically acquire Davis for an offer including Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and other assets, they’d immediately become the favorites in the Eastern Conference. Maybe they even win it all and both Kawhi Leonard and Davis commit long term to form a potential dynasty in Toronto. Even if Davis’s agency prefers him to play in Los Angeles, Davis is a grown man who will make his own decision. Davis prefers to play in a big market, according to Yahoo’s Chris Haynes. But Davis, above all else, wants to win. “Anthony wants to be traded to a team that allows him a chance to win consistently and compete for a championship,” Paul told ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. It’s hard to foresee him leaving a team that makes a title run. And if Davis doesn’t want to re-sign, the front office could then flip him in another trade. The same is true for any other contending team that’s interested in acquiring Davis now, whether it’s the Bucks, Nuggets, or someone else. The return for Davis this summer could be larger than what any team gives up for him now, which is why the Pelicans themselves just might wait.
The reward for the patient approach would be the offers that Boston can put together for New Orleans. (A quirky league rule prevents teams from acquiring two players on designated rookie-player extensions, which both Davis and Kyrie Irving are under until Irving can opt out of his this summer.) Most league sources have long felt that the Celtics are favorites for Davis if this drama reaches the summer because of the combination of young players and draft assets they could put on the table. Jayson Tatum is arguably the best asset who will be available in a trade; and though Jaylen Brown struggled to start the season, he has surged lately and previously shined during the postseason.
There’s no guarantee that the Pelicans will wait until the offseason and that a pot of gold with Tatum’s face on it will be waiting at the end of the Celtics’ rainbow. Boston can make all the promises it wants now about offering a full boat of assets this summer, but it’s another thing to actually do it. Then there’s Irving’s situation. For Davis, the whole appeal of Boston, according to league sources, would be to team up with Irving, one of his closest friends in the league. The Athletic’s Jay King reported in October that the Celtics point guard has already recruited Davis to Boston. But while Irving said in October that he would re-sign in Boston, and league sources still expect him to re-sign, plans can always change. And if Irving walked away, the Celtics would suddenly have less appeal to Davis. The looming threat of the Celtics making a Godfather offer is what would push the Lakers and other teams to go over the top for Davis right now, but if that threat is gone, New Orleans might be forced to take on a less-valuable package because of its diminished leverage.
Another reason to wait is Zion Williamson. The Duke big man is considered by some scouts as the best prospect to enter the draft since Davis in 2012. One scout called him “the perfect player for the modern NBA” because of his versatility on both ends of the floor. Show video of Zion to your grandma, and she’ll ask, “Is this a video game?” He’s a gravity-defying superhuman and a bulldozing, acrobatic scorer. Williamson needs to improve his spot-up jumper, but it’s the one notable flaw in his game. He has translatable strengths across the board. Having the rights to the no. 1 overall pick could be a game-changer in the AD derby, but we won’t know which team will have the pick until the draft lottery on May 14. So while the Knicks are preparing to make an offer now, they can’t make their best offer until then. And even then, they’ll have, at best, only 14 percent odds at landing the no. 1 pick, thanks to the new draft lottery rules.
A surprise team could also emerge for Davis on lottery day. Imagine, for example, if the Kings’ first-round pick landed at no. 1 overall; the pick would then go to the Sixers, and not the Celtics (who would get it if it lands in any spot other than first), and, suddenly, Philly would be a strong contender to land Davis. In December, I mentioned the Suns, Nets, and Bulls as teams that’d have assets to enter the conversation if they win the lottery. I’ve since been told by league sources that Davis doesn’t want to play for Chicago, his hometown team, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst first reported. The Nets are a virtual playoff lock, even after losing Spencer Dinwiddie to injury, and thus wouldn’t be involved in the lottery. The Suns remain an intriguing option, though; they inquired about stars dealt in recent years, such as Irving and Leonard, but ultimately weren’t serious threats to acquire either star because of the strong possibility those players would walk in free agency. The odds are the case would be the same for Davis, whose potential suitors may be narrowed to teams with an immediate chance of actually contending for a championship.
The Pelicans have their own first-round pick to think about, too. At 22-28 overall, New Orleans is currently 10th from the bottom of the standings, but two games out from the sixth-best lottery odds, which provide a 9 percent chance at no. 1 and a 37.2 percent chance at a top-four pick. If Davis returns to the floor, the Pelicans will be too good to be that bad; trading Davis now would give them better odds at landing a top pick.
Maybe there’s another way: Davis suffered a volar plate avulsion fracture on his left index finger, and Paul told Wojnarowski last week that Davis will be “re-evaluated every 48 to 72 hours.” Surgery is often an option for this injury if the pain becomes too much. If the finger did eventually require surgery, then shutting down Davis for the rest of the season could be beneficial to all parties. Davis would get his finger fixed; the Pelicans would help their lottery odds; and prospective suitors would get a healthy, bubble-wrapped Davis.
Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry told reporters on Monday that Davis plans to play out the season, but Gentry is the same person who said last month that the Pelicans wouldn’t trade Davis for anybody—“even Beyoncé.” By playing Davis, there’s everything to lose and nothing more to gain other than another second-round loss in the playoffs, at best. If Davis, who hasn’t been very durable throughout his six-plus NBA seasons, were to suffer a major injury, then the Pelicans’ leverage would plummet—much like San Antonio’s did during last year’s Leonard saga.
The Pelicans must keep in mind what happened to the Spurs, though. Leonard’s desire to play in Los Angeles was so strong that it caused other teams to offer less, or not make an offer at all, for the disgruntled star out of fear that he’d flee the following summer. Even the Raptors know there’s a chance this is a one-year fling with Leonard. As of now, Davis and Klutch have yet to take the same approach as Leonard—or George, the year prior—by claiming to be hell-bent on Los Angeles. But there’s always a chance they do say it’s Lakers-or-nothing, and if that happens, offers could fall further, and the Pelicans could end up having to take less this summer than what they’re being offered now.
Regardless of what happens with Davis, the Pelicans were going to be aggressive as the deadline approaches. League front-office sources have said in recent weeks that forward Nikola Mirotic and guard E’Twaun Moore are available in trades; New Orleans also offered both in November for Jimmy Butler. ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported on Monday that both players and forward Julius Randle were being shopped for draft picks over the weekend. Already, it seems like Davis’s eventual departure has caused friction: Pelicans point guard Jrue Holiday said Davis was “like 90 percent” of the reason he re-signed in New Orleans. Besides the $132 million, what could the other 10 percent have been: the food? Mardi Gras? The music? It couldn’t have been the rest of the team. Without Davis, the Pelicans will be cellar dwellers, unless they get a proven player back in the trade and start nailing their draft picks.
Ultimately, the Pelicans should listen to incoming offers, and if one is too good to pass up, sure, you take it. But I think the best course of action is for the Pelicans to try to sit Davis for the remainder of the season. Waiting until this summer to make a decision would increase their own odds of winning the lottery, while giving teams like the Celtics, Knicks, and others time to gather their best offers. The upside is too good to pass up.
It’s a shame it’s come to this for the Pelicans, but short-sighted decisions over the past decade—not tampering, as the organization alluded in its statement—have led to this day. It wouldn’t be the first time, either: Davis is averaging over 29 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and one steal; the last, and only, player to post those numbers in a full season is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who did so in 1974-75, his final season with the Bucks before he demanded a trade to the Lakers or Knicks. Kareem was eventually dealt to the Lakers. History has repeated itself, but Davis’s future is still to be written.