What Will Be the 2019 Song of Summer? Our Official, Mathematical Guide Presents the Early Contenders.
Memorial Day has come and gone, and the race for music’s summer crown is now underway. Our foolproof formula sets the stage for which track will become inescapable at every cookout and pool party you attend in the next few months.
Seventeen months—that’s how long it took for the puppy love confection “Boo’d Up” to climb from total obscurity on Ella Mai’s 2017 EP Ready to no. 5 on the Billboard Hot 100 and be declared the 2018 Song of Summer by various outlets. The success of the song, a traditional R&B groove in an era dominated by rap and rap-adjacent music, surprised a lot of Song of Summer prognosticators, including Ella Mai herself. “I literally had no words,” she told Billboard when describing her reaction to the song’s meteoric rise. “I definitely believe that there are songs that, as artists, we don’t know the full potential.”
“Boo’d Up” defied many of the criteria that The Ringer found typically define a Song of Summer when we analyzed 20 years of chart data back in 2017. The Song of Summer usually debuts in April or May; “Boo’d Up” appeared as an album cut in February of the previous year. The SoS tends to be imminently danceable; “Boo’d Up” could bring down a karaoke booth, but not a nightclub. As the music industry drifts further into the digital age, though, the Song of Summer DNA is rapidly mutating. A recent New York Times analysis found that while the Song of Summer converged around a specific kind of radio-friendly, Max Martin-influenced bombast early in the decade (take “Roar” by Katy Perry), the sonic variety of the songs that top the summer charts is now expanding for the first time in a generation.
Even if it’s getting harder to predict the SoS, it’s still a worthy endeavor to track the contenders as they arise, whether they’re from splashy major-label rollouts or year-old EPs. Throughout the summer we’ll be keeping tabs on potential competitors for the crown, using a highly scientific formula we engineered in that 2017 exploration to explain, definitively, just how oversaturated “Despacito” really was. Here’s a refresher on our four metrics, each of which is given 25 percent weight in our calculations.
Hot 100: Once upon a time the Billboard Hot 100 was the de facto arbiter of what song in the country was most popular. If you compare the Billboard charts to the Spotify ones in today’s music landscape, however, you’ll see that popularity is in the eye of the beholder. (Lizzo’s “Truth Hurts” is no. 5 on Spotify’s chart and no. 42 on the Hot 100.) Still, it is fair to say that any song in the top 10 of Billboard’s list has reached some level of ubiquity via traditional forms of music consumption. We’ll award points to the songs that chart in the top 10 each week — two points for no. 10, four points for no. 9, six points for no. 8, and so on — with the no. 1 song jumping up to receive the full 25 possible points. This accruing total will be converted to a percentage of maximum possible points, and that percentage will be applied to a 25-point scale, in order to account for one-quarter of the overall score in our formula.
Bloggability: If a pop song can’t spawn a thousand thinkpieces, social-media memes, and breathless music video recaps, did it really even have a cultural impact? We’ll measure how many hits each song gets on Google News in one-month intervals throughout the summer, keeping track of its average as we go. Every 1,000 hits is worth one point in our calculations, up to 25,000 hits. Songs that exceed 25,000 hits get props for being megaviral (or simply tied to cultural monoliths like Justin Bieber) but are awarded no additional points.
Playlist Prevalence: About half of music consumption on Spotify now happens via playlists, and a lot of that listening comes through lists curated by the company’s music experts, such as “RapCaviar” and “Today’s Top Hits.” A track that lands on different playlists across multiple streaming services probably contains cross-genre appeal. And if it remains on these constantly updating lists throughout the summer, that means it has staying power with listeners as well. We’ve picked out 25 playlists on Spotify and Apple Music that cover genres such as pop, hip-hop, dance, R&B, and rock (as well as some popular lists that vaguely gesture toward the zeitgeist, such as Apple Music’s “All Day Dance Party” and Spotify’s “Teen Party.”) We’ll measure how regularly these songs land on this crop of popular playlists on average in one-month intervals throughout the summer. A song’s appearance on each individual playlist is worth one point, up to 25 points total.
Quality: A Song of Summer must be, on some level, universal — not in the grating way of purposefully bland Top 40 hits, but in the cross-cultural, cross-generational, “I can’t believe grandma is dancing to ‘Trap Queen’ at this wedding,” kind of way. They are songs best enjoyed in the company of others. These qualities are difficult to measure empirically, so we’ve left it to our summer-loving colleagues here at The Ringer to rate the candidates on a 1-to-10 scale based on how essential these songs are to their summer playlists. We’ll apply the average score as a ratio to give each song a score out of 25 points. For example, a 7.5 song would earn 75 percent of the 25 possible points.
New contenders may be added to our list as they arise during the summer, but here’s the starting lineup coming out of Memorial Day weekend.
The Favorites
“Old Town Road (Remix),” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus
Hot 100 Ranking: 1 (25/25)
Bloggability: 20,900 articles (20.9/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 9/25
Quality: 8.67 (21.68/25)
Total: 76.58
The Red Dead Redemption 2 visual play turned viral meme turned superstar country-rap crossover turned Blazing Saddles music video remake seems to take on a newer and more popular form every month. Custom would dictate that “Old Town Road” peaked too early—surely the cowboy cosplay can’t continue for months on end. And yet Lil Nas X has already deprived Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, and Justin Bieber of the no. 1 chart ranking they must at this point view as their birthright. The Atlanta rapper has already explained exactly how long he plans to ride this horse. The question now is, how long will listeners?
“I Don’t Care,” Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber
Hot 100 Ranking: 2 (18/25)
Bloggability: 147,000 articles (25/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 7/25
Quality: 4.72 (11.8/25)
Total: 61.80
Every year brings at least one paint-by-numbers Song of Summer contender that has a candy-coated catchiness that’s too bland to be remarkable, like eating a Smartie. This year Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber have delivered us that song with “I Don’t Care,” a track that somehow feels at once irrelevant and too big to fail. Sheeran has the most-streamed song in Spotify history and is second only to Drake for total career streams. That means, unless or until Aubrey comes through with a summer banger, Sheeran will be the de facto king of streaming, and climb the charts on a mountain of passive, perfectly pleasant listens. Sorry, I don’t make the rules; the algorithms do.
“Bad Guy,” Billie Eilish
Hot 100 Ranking: 4 (14/25)
Bloggability: 4,120 articles (4.1/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 9/25
Quality: 5.22 (13.05/25)
Total: 40.15
“Bad Guy” has a lot going for it as an off-kilter Song of Summer contender. It’s been parked near the top of the Spotify charts since it was released in March, and it’s steadily climbed the Billboard Hot 100 in the last several weeks. While Eilish is a superstar among teens, she’s relatively unknown among older listeners, which means she has a huge pool of potential new fans compared to known quantities like T-Swift or the Jonas Brothers. “Bad Guy” isn’t a poolside anthem, but the simultaneously sinister and bratty tune could definitely soundtrack some light teenage vandalism on a muggy summer night.
“Sucker,” Jonas Brothers
Hot 100 Ranking: 3 (16/25)
Bloggability: 3,380 articles (3.38/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 3/25
Quality: 3.83 (9.58/25)
Total: 31.96
While Sophie Turner’s ever-rising stock probably boosted the popularity of the “Sucker” music video, this latest Jonas Brothers contender still seems unlikely to take the SoS crown given that it already peaked at no. 1 in March. Barring a forthcoming remix with Maisie Williams, chances are that this song is on the decline.
“Boy With Luv,” BTS feat. Halsey
Hot 100 Ranking: 61 (0/25)
Bloggability: 13,100 articles (13/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 5/25
Quality: 4.56 (11.4/25)
Total: 29.40
After releasing three consecutive no. 1 albums in the United States within the last year, BTS has officially entered Beatlemania territory when it comes to the group’s hyper-devoted fan base. The K-Pop boy band has been doing more collaborations with American artists as its clout has risen, and “Boy With Luv”—the lead single off its latest album—employs Halsey in that role. Though the song is languishing in the bottom half of Billboard’s Hot 100, the band’s high bloggability score (have you seen how BTS dominates Twitter?) will give it an advantage if the single happens to catch fire.
The Longshots
“ME!,” Taylor Swift feat. Brendon Urie
Hot 100 Ranking: 8 (6/25)
Bloggability: 8,570 articles (8.57/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 7/25
Quality: 2.44 (6.1/25)
Total: 27.67
Taylor Swift is perhaps more tied to the systematic rigor of the traditional music industry than any other modern artist. Her albums always drop in the fall; her lead singles always debut in the waning weeks of summer. Perhaps somewhat shook by the disappointing sales of Reputation, Swift has decided this is the year to make a highly transparent Song of Summer play, and “ME!” sounds like it was made for the Trolls 2 movie soundtrack and not the next Swift album that’s expected to drop imminently. The song is so generic that the outlets that spent a year conspiring with 2014-era Taylor to mutilate the word “squad” couldn’t even be bothered with this trifle, except to note the hilarious overstepping into Beyoncé’s turf. 1989 honestly feels like it was put out 30 years ago.
“Big Ole Freak,” Megan Thee Stallion
Hot 100 Ranking: 65 (0/25)
Bloggability: 634 articles (0.63/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 9/25
Quality: 7 (17.5/25)
Total: 27.13
While “Big Ole Freak” is not featured on Megan Thee Stallion’s debut album Fever, it will remain her signature song for the foreseeable future. It’s the track that most succinctly captures her bravado, her ear for melodic hooks, and her extremely detailed description of what she plans to do with the man of her choice before ghosting. Every viral freestyle and magazine cover that makes her a little more famous will eventually bring new fans to this track. All roads lead to “Big Ole Freak,” and if this is truly the summer that Megan takes off, the single could be a force on the charts come July.
“Before I Let Go,” Beyoncé
Hot 100 Ranking: 71 (0/25)
Bloggability: 2,200 articles (2.2/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 3/25
Quality: 5.78 (14.45/25)
Total: 19.65
Beyoncé essentially triple-dipped on her iconic HBCU-themed Coachella performance, turning it into a major pop culture event via the initial livestream in 2018, a Netflix documentary a year later, and a live album that dropped alongside the doc. “Before I Let Go,” the Frankie Beverly and Maze cover at the end of the live album, represents the fourth creative production from the concert. It even has its own viral challenge. However instead of springing up from the chaos of the internet, the #BeforeILetGoChallenge was sponsored by Beyoncé herself. That may help explain the relatively muted response, and the fact that this song hasn’t made all that much noise despite the theatrics surrounding its release.
“Act Up,” City Girls
Hot 100 Ranking: 33 (0/25)
Bloggability: 310 articles (0.31/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 5/25
Quality: 5.72 (14.3/25)
Total: 19.61
Though this track from the Miami duo dropped last November, it works as a summer anthem mainly because warm weather has been scientifically proven to increase the prevalence of actin’ up. A nocturnal club banger that increases in quality the closer it plays to midnight and your fifth gin and tonic, “Act Up” boasts that elusive flood-the-dance floor energy. But the rappers themselves, Yung Miami and JT, remain relatively anonymous despite their success. They have to become stars before a song like this can really take over the summer.
“Truth Hurts,” Lizzo
Hot 100 Ranking: 42 (0/25)
Bloggability: 481 articles (0.48/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 5/25
Quality: 5.44 (13.6/25)
Total: 19.08
If “Truth Hurts” catapults to the top of contention, the phenomenon would be something of a “Boo’d Up” redux. The song was released way back in the fall of 2017, music video and all, but has found a second life on the tracklist of Lizzo’s breakout album Cuz I Love You. It debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 at no. 50 and climbed to no. 42 in its second week. There’s still a long way to go to the top, but Lizzo is one of the buzziest artists of the year, and her infectious optimism was built for summer playlists.
“If I Can’t Have You,” Shawn Mendes
Hot 100 Ranking: 13 (0/25)
Bloggability: 3,890 articles (3.89/25)
Playlist Prevalence: 7/25
Quality: 3 (7.5/25)
Total: 18.39
I’ll admit that the name Shawn Mendes has been floating around the subconscious of my brain long enough that I figured he at least was old enough to drink. Nope—somehow he’s still only 20 years old. But unlike another teen heartthrob who used a video app to propel to superstardom, Mendes is not having his Purpose moment. There will likely be no “Why It Became Not Uncool to Like Shawn Mendes in 2019” thinkpieces boosting his bloggability score. Claiming the Song of Summer crown requires either winning over the millennial music snobs, like Bieber did, or leapfrogging them to create an Olds anthem, which must be what happened with Magic’s “Rude” in 2014. “If I Can’t Have You,” at least until now, has done neither.