Is Daryl Morey About to Break Up the Rockets?
With a disappointing postseason still fresh in the mind, rumors are circulating that Houston’s general manager has made practically the entire roster available. Does that mean the end of Chris Paul’s time in H-Town? Or could other Rockets be on the block?
It’s ironic that a team named the Rockets is trapped by space and time. Houston has no cap room to change a roster that is built for a window that may be closing. Chris Paul is 34 years old. He’s missed 48 games in the two seasons he’s been a Rocket. And yet Houston owes Paul max money for the next three seasons. At 37, he’ll collect $44 million. His body will not age as gracefully as his bank account.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Rockets general manager Daryl Morey was calling other front offices with “an aggressive desire” to make the roster better. No player or pick is off the table. I know as well as you know (and as well as Woj knows) that there’s almost no chance this means James Harden is being shopped, though Woj does curiously describe the “possibility” as “limited” (which is different than “when hell freezes over”). Still, trading for Harden in 2012 was Morey’s master stroke. Seven years later, it’s still bearing fruit. Harden isn’t just coming off a career year; he’s coming off a historic one.
Sacrificing future flexibility to give Harden what he needed wasn’t a bad move. When Houston acquired Paul two summers ago, the Point God was a figure worth praying to. But even at the time, the contract’s length and heft were a known risk. A championship is the only thing that would justify a 36-year-old CP3 hobbling around in 2022 for 17 minutes a night, acting out his own version of the Dirk grace period. But the Rockets haven’t won a title with Paul. Or reached the Finals. This postseason, they were stopped in the semis. Along the way, Paul looked depleted, in health and stature. A superstar became a star became a trade piece. A source within the Rockets organization told Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle that “‘Run it back’ is not what we do.” This isn’t Portland. Houston is more attached to winning than it’ll ever be to a certain player or plan.
Because of his age and cost, Paul is the Rocket most likely to be shopped. For the same reasons, he’s not the easiest sell. Someone like Clint Capela makes for a much sexier investment; last July, he re-signed for five years and $90 million. With such a reasonable contract, though, and at only 25 years old, dealing Capela feels like working backward. The same goes for Eric Gordon, who’s entering the final season of a highly affordable deal ($14 million in 2019-20). Normally it makes sense to flip an expiring for some type of return, but Houston’s surrendered the future for the present before, and Gordon is essential to what the Rockets want to accomplish next season.
Could Paul bring back much more? Preying on desperate teams isn’t as easy when you’re desperate, but there is one organization that’s living below rock bottom this summer. Trading with the Lakers might be loud and messy, but there’s clear incentive on both sides. Paul and his good pal LeBron James are fighting against the same clock. If no top-tier free agents bite—Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker—Paul is a decent backup-to-the-backup plan. For Houston, Los Angeles could offer breathing room. Sending Kyle Kuzma to Texas for Paul works straight up because the Lakers have so much cap room this summer.
Trading CP3 wouldn’t even be the hardest part. The real puzzle is how Houston can improve on the past two seasons without him. Does someone like Kuzma really move the needle? Maybe the Rockets are framing the wrong culprit here. Despite the cons I’ve listed, he’s still productive on the court. After missing 17 games in December and January, Paul returned for one of his best stretches as a Rocket. (Add the beginning of that sentence to the cons list.) One last hurrah for this core might be enough; they’d be staying together as other rosters break apart. Free agency could break up the Warriors dynasty as we know it—the opening the Rockets have longed for. On the other hand, say Houston comes up short in 2019-20. By next postseason’s end, Harden will be two months shy of 31. In this era, players are less inclined to wait for front-office plans to materialize than ever before.
Houston’s main objective will change this summer. Since Kevin Durant’s arrival in Golden State, the Rockets have been singularly focused on building a team to beat the Warriors. Now, that focus shifts to keeping Harden happy. Just because he’s under contract through the 2022-23 season (and set to make $228 million) doesn’t mean he can’t agitate for a change of scenery. Failing to surround a superstar in his prime with what he needs is grounds to demand a trade. Morey can’t afford to keep the roster the same, but he can’t afford a complete failure to launch, either.