Which NBA player first comes to mind when you watch the following clip?
The crossover. The double stepback. The lefty stroke. The debatable travel. James Harden is the only answer! The player performing the Harden impression is a French point guard by the name of Killian Hayes, who recently declared for the 2020 NBA draft. In a league where perimeter shooting, playmaking, and defensive versatility are at a premium, Hayes is my top-ranked prospect in this year’s class.
Comparing Hayes to Harden would be unreasonable; his foot is on the line in the video and deep 2s are considered an unforgivable sin in Houston, so right off the bat, the comparison isn’t perfect. But at just 18 years old, Hayes is developing moves that have an undeniable Harden influence. While playing last season in Germany for Ratiopharm Ulm, Hayes showed skill beyond his years, taking stepbacks, side steps, and fearless pull-up jumpers. Most NBA players, let alone teenagers, don’t possess the type of footwork required to attempt such complex moves, but Hayes is ahead of the curve.
The 6-foot-5 guard has a diverse repertoire, too. While averaging 11.6 points and 5.3 assists last season, Hayes did most of his damage in the paint, displaying a soft touch on floaters, runners, and layups. With long arms and a strong, 215-pound frame, Hayes has an ideal build to penetrate the defense and score through contact. Over the last three years playing overseas, he drew one foul for every three shot attempts, a high rate for a player of his age. And he hit 86 percent of his near-300 free throw attempts, an important number given free throw percentage is historically the most reliable predictor of shooting ability in the NBA (he shot only 29 percent from 3 last season). Add his high percentage at the line to his natural touch and advanced footwork, and he has the ingredients to someday become a dynamic scorer from all over the court.
Playmaking might actually be Hayes’s best strength right now, though. He can mimic more stars than just Harden. Check him out channeling Manu Ginobili:
Hayes is already adept at whipping the ball to spot-up 3-point shooters, which is a tough pass for players to make and deliver with accuracy.
When a ball handler is a threat to make those types of cross-court passes, the weak-side defender must stay on the corner shooter to protect against an open shot. But if Hayes continues to improve his drives to the basket, it’ll become a pick-your-poison decision for defenses. Hayes already has a feel for weaponizing his scoring to create open passing lanes to teammates:
He can manipulate defenders with hesitations and quick crossovers, then can throw over-the-head dimes to rollers and cutters. At just 18, he’s already hard to contain and he’s still only starting to figure things out. Hayes doesn’t have the tightest handle yet like a Harden or a Ginobili, and he’s left-hand dominant, often to a fault. He rarely uses his right hand to score around the rim, which makes some layups more difficult than they should be. And some passes aren’t currently possible if he’s not able to drive with his right hand and then comfortably pass across his body to the left.
Skills are improvable with time and work, but they aren’t there yet for Hayes. Maybe he never becomes Harden. Maybe he never turns into Ginobili. But those are two future Hall of Famers, and the odds are extremely slim for any teenager to reach that level. Maybe Hayes projects as something closer to D’Angelo Russell, who just signed a max contract last summer. They both have fluid scoring styles with a knack for playmaking. The differentiator is that Russell has a severe allergy to defense, whereas Hayes plays hard on both ends. Hayes keeps his head on a swivel when he’s off the ball and frequently disrupts passing lanes. Though his fundamentals need to improve on the ball, that’s common for his age. With his size and length, Hayes projects as a versatile man-to-man defender for years to come.
There’s a lot to like about Hayes, with his playmaking, scoring, and defensive ability at such a young age. But he’s not a no-brainer superstar prospect like Luka Doncic or Zion Williamson in recent years. Hayes probably won’t be the first pick like Zion. He might not even go third like Luka. Most executives currently expect the first three prospects to come off the board to be Georgia wing Anthony Edwards, Illawarra guard LaMelo Ball, and Memphis center James Wiseman. But it’s too early to say where each prospect will go when opinions vary so greatly. I’ve spoken with NBA executives who have Wiseman first, and others who have him ranked outside of the top 10. Edwards has been labeled a boom-or-bust prospect. And I’ve heard LaMelo called both “underrated” and “overrated” because of his family’s last name. Hayes also has his skeptics.
The NBA’s rookie-scale structure means that this year’s no. 1 pick will earn $12 million annually over the next four seasons—that’s a lot of dough to drop on an unproven player. Why invest so much financially in a prospect with such a volatile range of outcomes like LaMelo, whose immense passing ability will be diminished if he never develops a jumper? Or Wiseman, who struggles to read the floor and make quick decisions? Or Edwards, whose feel for the game is lacking? Why not take Hayes, the prospect with the strongest foundation for success and a comparable upside?
All four of these players should get picked somewhere in the top 10, it’s just a matter of where, and that won’t be determined until after the lottery takes place and the evaluation process is completed. For now, the NBA doesn’t even know when its draft events will take place because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has pressed pause on the season. Teams can’t conduct in-person workouts or interviews because of social distancing measures. There are many variables at play in what’s shaping up to be an unusually unpredictable draft.
One prospect, though, checks more boxes than all of the others. Who can shoot? Who can generate space off the dribble? Who has a feel for the game? Who makes his teammates better? Who can defend? Who conjures memories of All-Stars? It’s the best prospect in the 2020 NBA draft: Killian Hayes.
The Ringer’s 2020 NBA Draft Guide launched today, featuring Kevin O’Connor’s scouting reports and rankings for his top 30 players. Click here to check out the Draft Guide, including his full profile of Killian Hayes.