Down go the Philadelphia Eagles! The league’s last remaining undefeated team lost as an 11-point home favorite against the Taylor Heinicke–led Washington Commanders on Monday night, which is just another testament to how wild and parity-ridden the 2022 NFL season has been through 10 weeks. The Eagles’ loss creates an opening for the Minnesota Vikings to potentially steal the no. 1 seed away in the NFC—but it isn’t changing the top of these rankings. There is movement at the no. 2 spot, however, as the Kansas City Chiefs jumped ahead of the Buffalo Bills—both here in the power rankings and also atop the AFC standings. No team is guaranteed anything this season. Now, on to the rankings:
Lines are from FanDuel.
The Best of the Best
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1 | last week’s ranking: 1)
The Eagles had just three turnovers entering Week 10, four fewer than any other team in the NFL. They were bound for regression and got it all at once on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia matched its season total in turnovers with three against the Commanders, including a Dallas Goedert fumble on a play during which he was clearly grabbed by the face mask. Officials did not throw a flag—and the face mask was not reviewable. Monday also marked the first time the Eagles trailed in the second half at any point this season. I’m not dropping the Eagles from this spot after their first loss, but they can’t afford many more of these messy games if they want to hold on to the top spot in the NFC standings.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 | last week: 3)
Everything is coming up Kansas City right now. Patrick Mahomes is the best player in football, and it doesn’t feel close. He is priced at +135 to win league MVP, and no other player has better odds than +340. And now with the Bills losing to the Vikings on Sunday, the Chiefs are the new favorite (+125) to earn the first-round bye as the AFC’s top-seeded team in January.
3. Buffalo Bills (6-3 | last week: 2)
Don’t overreact to the Bills losing two consecutive games. Falling behind the Chiefs in the race for the no. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs is a concern, but I’m confident that the Bills are still one of the league’s top three teams. The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz ran through the questions the Bills will need to answer down the stretch to legitimize their Super Bowl run, but there’s no real reason to doubt that the Bills will be playing in the AFC championship game in late January.
Deep Postseason Contenders
4. Minnesota Vikings (8-1 | last week: 5)
The easy way out would be to rank Minnesota over Buffalo coming off a game Sunday that the Vikings likely would have lost had Justin Jefferson not made one of the best catches in NFL history, or if Josh Allen didn’t fumble a snap on the goal line in the final minute of regulation. The reality is that the Bills are still the better team and deserve to be ranked accordingly. Breathe, Vikings fans. Yes, your team just beat the Bills in Buffalo, and yes, they have the second-best record in the NFL. You should enjoy it while also understanding that despite Jefferson’s heroics, the Vikings rank just 16th in offensive EPA per drive and 14th in points allowed per game. They rank just tied for eighth in point differential (35) and have won seven consecutive games by eight points or less. Without a dominant four-quarter win since Week 1, I just can’t put Minnesota into the top tier of this list.
5. Miami Dolphins (7-3 | last week: 7)
Tua Tagovailoa has three consecutive games with three touchdown passes and no picks. The Dolphins have won every game he’s started and finished. He leads the league in EPA per dropback and has Miami ranked second in offensive EPA per drive. Tua certainly deserves a ton of credit, both for how well he’s playing and for the overall success Miami is having, but head coach Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins’ elite cast of skill position players deserve just as much, if not more. The potential for this offense is sky-high because of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and McDaniel is hitting the ceiling with creative run schemes and Shanahan-level mastery of personnel groupings, play-action and presnap motion. Tagovailoa, McDaniel, and the supporting cast are all at the top of their games right now; that makes them a legitimate Super Bowl threat.
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3 | last week: 4)
Hot-take alert: Lamar Jackson is the only player who should be in consideration with Patrick Mahomes as the league’s MVP this season. Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins will all draw acclaim for leading some of the best teams in the league, but Jackson and Mahomes are the only two consistently elevating their offenses above the means of their supporting cast and coaches. Jackson is nearly single-handedly positioning the Ravens as deep postseason contenders and is well on his way to a record-breaking payday this offseason.
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-4 | last week: 8)
A second Steven Ruiz mention in these rankings! I agree with my esteemed colleague that Jimmy Garoppolo currently belongs in the bottom half of the QB rankings, but that doesn’t mean Garoppolo’s not finding success in an uber-talented Kyle Shanahan offense. San Francisco ranks 10th in offensive EPA per drive since Garoppolo took over for Trey Lance as the starter in Week 3, and Garoppolo ranks seventh in EPA per dropback in the same eight-week period. His average time to throw is the eighth-fastest in the NFL, and his pass catchers lead the league in yards after the catch per reception. He isn’t elevating the offense, but he’s doing what he has to in order to keep it on schedule and keep the 49ers primed for a deep postseason run.
Flawed Postseason Contenders
8. Dallas Cowboys (6-3 | last week: 6)
Dak Prescott can’t have many more games like he did on Sunday against the Packers if the Cowboys are going to be a serious threat in the playoffs. Even with his three touchdown passes, Prescott finished the week ranked second to last among starters in EPA per dropback; only Rams backup John Wolford ranked lower in Week 10.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 | last week: 10)
Blowing the doors off the Panthers got the Bengals over .500 ahead of their bye, but they’re still far away from celebrating a return to the postseason. The Ravens are most likely to win the division (-490 on FanDuel), casting Cincinnati in a hotly contested race for an AFC wild-card spot. An early 4.5-point road favorite against the Steelers in Week 11, the Bengals are in a must-win situation this week as they play one of the easiest remaining games on their schedule. Cincinnati has to take on the Titans, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bills, and Ravens all in the next eight weeks.
10. New York Giants (7-2 | last week: 12)
The fact that the Giants are only three-point favorites over the Lions at home in Week 11 but still -310 to make the playoffs is very representative of their season. They’ve significantly exceeded preseason expectations against the third-easiest schedule in football in weeks 1-10, which puts them in the driver’s seat for a wild-card bid in the NFC. But they still aren’t heavy favorites over one the worst teams in the NFL because betting markets still aren’t buying them as the type of powerhouse their 7-2 record would suggest.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6-4 | last week: 9)
Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense are still among the league’s best; losing to the Bucs in Germany doesn’t change that. What the loss did magnify, however, is how important it is for Seattle to run the football effectively and avoid slow starts. The Seahawks trailed the Bucs 21-3 with 10:48 remaining in the fourth quarter in large part because they simply had no success on the ground to start the game. It was just the second game in which Seattle averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry; they’ve lost both contests by a combined score of 48-23.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4 | last week: 11)
Justin Herbert is special. He’s an unreal talent capable of making absolutely mind-boggling throws, like this one he made Sunday night in a loss to the 49ers. Of course, that means little if you’re not a winning quarterback, but that is not on Herbert as much as it is on the offensive play-calling and supporting cast. How much of the Chargers’ offensive struggles are because of OC Joe Lombardi and how much are due to injuries to the receiving corps and offensive line is hard to say, but the bottom line is the Chargers are simply too conservative and too unsuccessful on early downs. That, combined with a Brandon Staley–led defense that still can’t stop the run and ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed per game just isn’t going to get it done regardless of how sexy the all-22 angles of Herbert’s throws are every week.
13. Tennessee Titans (6-3 | last week: 14)
Barring a late-season miracle in Jacksonville or Indianapolis, the Titans will be hosting a playoff game in January, but their next three games will tell us a lot about the kind of success we should expect from them in the postseason. They’re currently three-point road underdogs on a short week against the Packers on Thursday Night Football, and will play the Bengals (the team Tennessee lost to in the divisional round last season) and the top-ranked Eagles in subsequent weeks. The Titans could still make the playoffs even if they lose all three, but this upcoming stretch has a chance to be a major confidence builder and could change the way the rest of the NFL views the Titans heading into the final month of the season.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5 | last week: 15)
The Buccaneers recorded single-game season highs in rush attempts (44) and rushing yards (161) in a convincing 21-16 win over the Seahawks in Germany last week. It was just the second time this season Tampa Bay finished a game with a positive EPA per rush average and called at least 10 play-action passes. Rookie RB Rachaad White out-snapped veteran Leonard Fournette 48 to 22 and recorded a career-high 105 rushing yards. With the Falcons losing back-to-back games and Tampa Bay winning both of its games in the same stretch, the Bucs are again runaway favorites (-420) to win the NFC South. Winning when they get to the postseason will require the same kind of production that White and the Bucs’ rushing attack had against Seattle.
On the Bubble
15. New York Jets (6-3 | last week: 13)
A win against the Patriots this week would be huge for the Jets’ playoff chances. They already have a one-game lead over the 5-4 Bengals, Chargers, and Patriots, and New York has the easiest remaining schedule of any NFL team, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. FanDuel currently prices New York at -102 to make the postseason and +1100 to win the division, but those odds would shift significantly in the Jets’ favor if they win in Foxborough as 3.5-point underdogs in Week 11.
16. New England Patriots (5-4 | last week: 17)
Simply put: Sunday is a must-win game for the Patriots. Dropping to 5-5 as the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets pull away in the division would force New England into a three-way race with the Bengals and Chargers for the remaining playoff spot in the AFC. And, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Patriots have the league’s hardest remaining schedule.
17. Green Bay Packers (4-6 | last week: 20)
The good news is rookie wide receiver Christian Watson broke out in a major way on Sunday, catching four passes for 107 yards and three touchdowns to help secure a much-needed win over the Cowboys. The bad news is it may be too little, too late for Watson and the Packers to avoid missing the playoffs. After Sunday’s games, Green Bay was +300 to make the postseason with games against the Titans, Eagles, Dolphins, and Vikings—each of whom are leading their respective divisions—still remaining on the schedule.
18. Washington Commanders (5-5 | last week: 24)
The Commanders ranked 29th on this list after the team’s first six games of the season. Starting quarterback Carson Wentz was an unmitigated disaster before undergoing finger surgery, and the team was just 2-4 going into Week 7. Enter everyone’s favorite underdog, Taylor Heinicke, who is 3-1 as the starter since taking over with wins over Green Bay, Indianapolis, and now, Philadelphia. Heinicke was coy in his response to questions about being named the permanent starter with Wentz expected to be cleared to play next week, but the choice for Ron Rivera should be obvious: This is Heinicke’s team, and the Commanders are better because of it.
19. Arizona Cardinals (4-6 | last week: 23)
Backup QB Colt McCoy kept the Cardinals’ postseason aspirations alive with an upset win over the Rams on Sunday, but Arizona remains a long shot with two games remaining against the 49ers and games against the Chargers, Patriots, and Buccaneers on the upcoming schedule. All signs point to Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray finishing their fourth consecutive season together without a playoff win.
20. Denver Broncos (3-6 | last week: 16)
The Broncos simply spent too much to acquire and extend Russell Wilson for the offense to be this bad. Denver ranks 30th in offensive EPA per drive, and Wilson ranks just 24th in EPA per dropback. The Broncos’ brass will be pressured to make significant changes at the end of the season to ensure their bet on Wilson hits, which could mean first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett and others on the coaching staff will get the ax.
21. Cleveland Browns (3-6 | last week: 18)
The Browns defense is a mess. Only the Texans and Lions have a lower success rate defending the run than the Browns this season—Cleveland was gashed by the Dolphins for 195 yards on the ground on Sunday—and the defense overall ranks 31st in points allowed per game. Cleveland needs Jacoby Brissett to be a superhero every week to overcome such a disastrous defense, and that’s just not going to happen.
22. Atlanta Falcons (4-6 | last week: 19)
Marcus Mariota hasn’t played well this season and was particularly reckless in the Falcons’ 25-15 loss to the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, but he’s not the only reason they’re losing games. Even after his disastrous performance in Week 10 that had some in the media calling for rookie Desmond Ridder to replace him, Mariota ranks 11th in EPA per dropback and 14th in EPA per attempt on throws 10-plus yards downfield. He isn’t a top-half-of-the-league starter or the quarterback of the future, but Mariota is doing enough for head coach Arthur Smith to show commitment to him as the starter and for Atlanta to remain at least in the hunt for a playoff spot in a dreadful division. And that is what matters to the Falcons with seven games remaining on the schedule.
23. Los Angeles Rams (3-6 | last week: 21)
All is lost for the Rams this season. They were already a long shot to make the playoffs going into Week 10, and odds only worsened with a loss to the Cardinals. Now they’re bracing for extended time without their best offensive player, WR Cooper Kupp.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7 | last week: 22)
The Jaguars should be right on the edge of being in the playoff hunt. The defense is young but talented, with legitimate star power in Devin Lloyd, Travon Walker, and Foye Oluokun. Walker has now recorded four pressures in back-to-back games, according to Pro Football Focus, and earned a career-high single-game grade against the Chiefs on Sunday. Trevor Lawrence ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA per dropback and should only continue to improve as the Jags add talent around him, Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne. Lawrence has averaged 0.10 EPA per dropback or better in four of his last five games, including the Jags’ loss against Kansas City. The foundation is in place for Jacksonville to return to prominence as soon as 2023.
Long-Shot Playoff Hopefuls
25. Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1 | last week: 28)
No, Jeff Saturday winning in his NFL coaching debut doesn’t make Colts owner Jim Irsay any less of a madman. Asking his friend to coach the team on short notice and bizarrely dodging a Rooney Rule question in his first press conference with Saturday is evidence of a disappointing, unsurprising fact that minority coaches are held to a different and often arbitrary standard in the NFL. Of course, a disappointing process can still yield positive results. Saturday was smart to announce Matt Ryan as the starter over Sam Ehlinger right before Sunday’s game against the Raiders, and he quickly asserted himself as a leader in the locker room. The Colts are still unlikely to make the playoffs and opened Monday as a 7.5-point underdogs against the Eagles this week, but the unprecedented Saturday experiment is off to a positive (and potentially telling) start.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6 | last week: 29)
Mike Tomlin isn’t going to go down without a fight. With the return of T.J. Watt and with fresh legs after their Week 9 bye, the Steelers defense allowed a season-low 10 points against the Saints on Sunday. They’ll need that sort of defensive performance throughout the rest of the season while rookie QB Kenny Pickett and the offense goes through their growing pains.
27. Detroit Lions (3-6 | last week: 30)
Back-to-back wins over division rivals should ease rumors swirling about Dan Campbell’s future in Detroit and is good enough to bump Detroit up a few spots in these rankings, but the Lions are still far away from postseason contention. Jared Goff ranks fourth in EPA per dropback over the two-week stretch but just 29th in average depth of target. His success is still largely dependent on the supporting cast making plays after the catch, and he has specifically struggled in obvious passing situations. A question now is if they’ll be drafting high enough to get one of the top two QB prospects (C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young), or if Detroit’s front office will have to be aggressive in trading up in the draft or for a veteran quarterback this offseason.
28. Chicago Bears (3-7 | last week: 26)
Justin Fields is nearing Lamar Jackson levels of dynamism and entertainment—great company to be in. He currently leads all players with 100 or more carries in EPA and yards per rush, and also ranks 10th among QBs in EPA per dropback since Week 5. He’s overcome a slow start to his career to affirm his positioning as the Bears’ quarterback of the future and one that the front office should surround with talent with the ample resources they have this offseason.
29. New Orleans Saints (3-7 | last week: 25)
The Saints are bad, and there’s no obvious light at the end of the tunnel. Neither Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston are long-term solutions at quarterback, and the team’s defense is just too inconsistent. No amount of patented aggression from general manager Mickey Loomis can get the cap-strapped Saints out from the depths of the league overnight; he needs to finally commit to a rebuild and overhaul the roster to get the team back on track.
30. Carolina Panthers (3-7 | last week: 31)
A convincing win against a hapless Atlanta defense missing its two starting cornerbacks doesn’t do much to move the Panthers up these rankings, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t reason for some positivity in Carolina. Both former first-rounders still on rookie contracts, Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn, have been breakout stars for Carolina this season. Brown has quickly developed into one of the league’s best nose tackles, and Horn currently leads all cornerbacks with 200-plus coverage snaps played in passer rating allowed (23.1), according to Pro Football Focus. Brown, Horn, edge rusher Brian Burns, safety Jeremy Chinn, and linebacker Frankie Luvu all create the foundation for a bright future for the Panthers defense.
Bottom of the Barrel
31. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7 | last week: 27)
Derek Carr was extremely emotional at his postgame press conference after the Raiders lost to a bad Colts team they had no business losing to. Carr and Davante Adams were both clearly disappointed in their teammates’ effort and buy-in. But others in the organization aren’t on the same page. Head coach Josh McDaniels said he doesn’t have any issue with his team’s effort, and owner Mark Davis thinks McDaniels is doing a “fantastic job” and remains committed to him long term. So, who’s right? McDaniels and Davis don’t want to accept that they’re losing the locker room, because that would mean McDaniels isn’t doing his job and Davis, notably one of the league’s most cash-strapped owners, would have to spend big—again—on a new coaching staff and/or front office. What I see is a head coach who is not getting the best out of his players and a bunch of veteran additions (like Chandler Jones, Bilal Nichols, Anthony Averett, Rock Ya-Sin, Brandon Bolden, Duron Harmon, Jakob Johnson) who are not playing well, and an owner who risks losing the few good players he has (Carr, Adams, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Maxx Crosby). Someone will have to pay at the end of the year, but who?
32. Houston Texans (1-7-1 | last week: 32)
Rookie RB Dameon Pierce remains fun to watch, but everything else in Houston isn’t. Every losing week should draw more excitement around the fact that he’ll be playing with Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud next season.
