There’s still one game left in this NFL cycle, but we’ve already got our first big trade of the offseason. Sean Payton will reportedly become the head coach of the Broncos after Denver sent a 2023 first-round pick (the 29th overall, which came over in the Bradley Chubb deal) and a 2024 second-rounder to New Orleans in exchange for Payton and a 2024 third-round selection.
It’s a significant price to pay for a non-player, but Denver had reportedly already whiffed on 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans—whom Houston successfully recruited with a six-year offer—and didn’t want to miss out on Payton. Coming off Nathaniel Hackett’s short-lived stint as coach, the Broncos needed an adult leading the locker room and were willing to pay a steep price to land one. And while past NFL history doesn’t necessarily determine the future, teams have a surprisingly good track record when it comes to swapping draft picks for head coaches. The Dolphins (Don Shula), Patriots (Bill Belichick), and Buccaneers (Jon Gruden and Bruce Arians) all won Super Bowls after making those trades. The Jets turned things around after trading for Bill Parcells in the late 1990s. And the Seahawks eventually made a Super Bowl after trading for Mike Holmgren.
Payton has already won a ring as head coach. His career winning percentage ranks 24th in NFL history. He has developed a Hall of Fame quarterback, and his track record of offensive success is now decades long. We know good coaching matters, and the teams that have paid a little extra for it haven’t regretted it. This deal should be viewed as a step in the right direction for a franchise that hasn’t gotten a lot right since winning Super Bowl 50.
The Broncos hired Payton to eventually bring them another Lombardi Trophy, but the team might even feel the deal was worth it if the offensive-minded head coach can get some level of production out of Russell Wilson. In his first season in Denver, the former Pro Bowl quarterback threw for a career-low 16 touchdowns and finished 27th in QBR en route to a last-place finish in the AFC West. Payton’s long-term plans may not ultimately include the 34-year-old quarterback—despite the fact that Wilson has six years and a $107 million dead cap charge left on his current deal—but his first offseason will certainly center around the team’s highest-paid player. So I hope Payton didn’t get tired of answering questions about Wilson during his yearlong foray into media because those are all he’ll hear over the next eight months. It might be the only topic he’ll be asked about at the introductory press conference.
His answers there will, I’m sure, be rather uninteresting: He’s really looking forward to working with such an accomplished quarterback; Wilson was one of the main reasons he chose Denver; he can win a Super Bowl with this quarterback. Whether any of that is actually true doesn’t really matter: We’ll have to wait until September to see what kind of belief Payton truly has in Wilson, and that will come through in the scheme he deploys.
Payton isn’t known for working with quarterbacks of Wilson’s skill set—mobile passers who are more adept at out-of-pocket splash plays than down-to-down consistency. And we likely won’t know what the coach has really got cooked up until Denver takes the field in September. But during an October appearance on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Payton was asked how he’d try to help Wilson improve, and he offered up some specifics:
“Today, I’d want a cut-up of all Russell’s pass plays of 30 or more yards from the field,” Payton said. “And I’d want to see are there some schemes that he felt very comfortable with? … Then I’d want to look at another film of his red zone touchdown passes inside the 20 [yard line.]
“I’m asking for some of his greatest hits and to make sure that we have those song lyrics available. And if not, let’s put them in.”
In other words, Payton may start by looking back at how Wilson made his big plays and trying to find ways to recreate them. That’s not necessarily going to change the foundation of Payton’s scheme, which will likely be based on the West Coast offense, but it might affect the way he dials up explosive plays. In the clip, Payton pointed to Seattle’s use of throwback plays off of play-action as an example of a concept Wilson used to great effect. Wilson would fake a handoff, roll to one side of the field, plant, and throw back across the field to Tyler Lockett, who was running against the flow of the defense. Here’s an example from Wilson’s last season in Seattle:
While those plays are more of a luxury for most offenses, they were integral to Seattle’s success when Wilson was there. He’s a unique quarterback who was able to thrive in volatile situations. He turned plays that yield inconsistent results for most quarterbacks—deep balls, scramble drills, etc.—into high-percentage successes while struggling to consistently execute the more basic, some may say easier, passing concepts. Pete Carroll and his rotating cast of offensive coordinators tried many times to build a more sustainable approach around Wilson’s skill set but invariably went back to his strengths because the results were just better.
Payton is mostly known for his work with Drew Brees, a quarterback Wilson is often compared to because both are on the shorter side for NFL passers. But that’s where the comparisons end. Brees was the ultimate pocket passer. Despite his height, he had no problem seeing the field from the pocket, and his quick mental process allowed him to hit a receiver in his progression on any given play. Brees was an efficient thinker and passer. He combined quick decision-making with unreal accuracy, and that freed Payton up to do whatever he wanted in the passing game. Early on in their tenures, that meant downfield shots to speedy receivers, but as Brees aged and his arm grew weaker, Payton adjusted and ran an offense built around the quick passing attack. And it worked.
That doesn’t mean Payton wants to run that style of offense in Denver. He did what he had to do to maximize his quarterback and win games. But when Brees was hurt, the former Saints coach showed he was willing to adapt. Teddy Bridgewater filled in for Brees during the 2019 season, and Payton employed a similar offense. But when it was Taysom Hill back there, New Orleans used more shotgun and called deeper passing plays that didn’t ask the part-time quarterback to do too much processing after the snap. And when Jameis Winston took over after Brees’s retirement in 2021, the offense, then led by a quarterback capable of pushing the ball downfield, looked more like the one we saw during the early years of Payton’s tenure.
Based on Payton’s own comments and Wilson’s past success, I’m expecting to see some combination of the Hill and Winston offenses in Denver. We should see more shotgun formations and downfield shots that take advantage of Wilson’s arm, which is easily his biggest strength at this point. And Payton will fill in the rest of the gaps with his scheme and play-calling. Expect a robust screen game to go along with quick passing concepts that don’t ask Russ to hang in the pocket for longer than he’s comfortable. That’s how the offense worked over the last few seasons in New Orleans, at least.
Payton is a good coach who has built successful offenses with numerous quarterbacks of varying skill sets. He’s going to find a way to get the most out of Wilson, even if it means copying Seattle’s old playbook. But, really, Denver should already be looking beyond the Wilson issue. Getting improvement out of him isn’t going to make up for the gap between the Broncos and the Chiefs. A better version of Wilson is still only the third-best quarterback in the division, behind Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. If Payton wants to win championships, he’ll need to find himself a passer who’s capable of playing with those two. It’s been three seasons since Wilson has looked the part.
Payton did a lot of talking during his year off from coaching, and he was asked about various players, including one quarterback he will almost certainly be scouting over the next year: USC’s Caleb Williams, who will be eligible for next year’s draft. Payton called the Heisman Trophy winner a “generational” prospect and even suggested that he’s good enough to force the NFL to institute a lottery system to prevent teams from tanking for him. Payton compared him to Mahomes, a player the Saints were looking to draft in 2017 before Kansas City traded up to take him. It sure seems like the new Broncos coach views him as a player who can compete with Mahomes and Herbert.
Landing Williams may be an unrealistic dream, but the Broncos and their new coach should be thinking about the quarterback situation in those terms either way. Reclaiming Wilson’s career would be a nice side project for this offseason, and that could give the fan base a much-needed punch in the arm after last year’s train wreck. But you don’t hire a coach like Payton just to be competitive or keep fans in the seats. You hire a coach like Payton to develop a team capable of winning a Super Bowl every season. You hire him for his long-term vision, whether that includes who’s currently under center or not.
