The American Gaming Association expects 50 million Americans to bet on Super Bowl LVII this weekend, a 61 percent increase from last year’s Super Bowl. If you’re one of those 50 million, you might as well have fun with it.
There are endless ways to have fun betting on the Super Bowl. Unless you’re closely following the sports betting models, regularly betting on NFL games, and tailing whales (like The Ringer’s Warren Sharp or Raheem Palmer), it’ll be much more entertaining to focus on prop bets, touchdown scorers, and totals. And betting that way will leave you far less likely to end your night crying over the empty Buffalo Wild Wings boxes as the host of the house party fires a Venmo request for your share of the food.
While your pals are getting taken to the cleaners by the sportsbooks on the traditional lines, I urge you to look at the ways you can gamble on the entire Super Bowl Sunday viewing experience: Will Pringles or Doritos have the first commercial aired during the game? How many songs will Rihanna play during the halftime show? How many times will the fact that the Kelce brothers are playing against each other be mentioned on the broadcast, and how many times will Fox show their mother, Donna? What will be mentioned first during the Super Bowl MVP speech after the game: his teammates (-120) or the city/fans (+325)? (Or will it be God, currently sitting as an underdog at +370?) You can bet on whether a player will propose marriage after the game. If you think the answer is yes, books are taking those odds at +350. And that doesn’t even include all the in-game betting opportunities on the actual football!
How long will Jalen Hurts’s longest pass travel? Will Patrick Mahomes break the record for most passing yards in a Super Bowl? What will be the result of the first play of the game? Will any player score three or more touchdowns? Will any player score exactly three touchdowns? If you want to bet anything in regard to the Super Bowl, you probably can.
I am here to help guide you through this wild betting landscape. I can’t promise you’ll make money, but can assure you that if you follow this guide the payout will be a damn good time, from coin flip to Gatorade bath.
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday evening unless otherwise noted.
Coin Flip
There’s no actual value in betting the coin flip, you degenerates. Most sportsbooks will have the odds set at -105 for both heads and tails, which gives each result an implied probability of 51.2 percent. But a coin flip by definition implies that heads and tails both mathematically have a win probability of 50 percent, so the books are cleaning up, big time.
And yet, betting the coin toss is absolutely electric. It’s the start of the single biggest sporting event in the world, and everyone at your Super Bowl house party or neighborhood bar is backing one side of the coin. The “tails never fails” group is always the loudest (and most annoying). Those backing heads are initially reserved yet eager to scream in the faces of tails backers if the coin does rear its head. (Sorry.)
Fox Bet reported that 52 percent of coin flip bettors were on tails in last year’s game. Heads is a man-made underdog in what is a mathematically 50-50 situation because of that stupid goddamn rhyme. Someone has to put their foot down, and that someone is me.
Pick: Heads (out of spite)
National Anthem Length
I’d rather be trapped in Aaron Rodgers’s dark room with just my thoughts for the duration of the Super Bowl than not have a bet on the length of the national anthem. Having your iPhone stopwatch out as some famous singer belts out “ROCKET’S RED GLARE” while the lads scream and holler is a national pastime! I’ve got to believe that even President Lyndon B. Johnson had a cheeky Benjamin on the Pride of Arizona, Michigan Marching Band, and UCLA Choir to go over 125 seconds ahead of Super Bowl I.
Country star Chris Stapleton, a Kentucky native known for his song “Tennessee Whiskey,” will sing the anthem at Super Bowl LVII. Despite some exhaustive research, I haven’t been able to find a video of Stapleton singing the anthem. We’re flying blind here, folks! But maybe it’s for the best. Country artist Mickey Guyton did have a recorded anthem prior to her showing at last year’s Super Bowl, but it turns out the YouTube scouting report wasn’t all that helpful on game day. Her previous performance ran for just under 86 seconds, but she went on to drop a 112-second banger at SoFi Stadium. It’s not just the football players who save their best performances for the Super Bowl, which might mean longer renditions of “The Star-Spangled Banner” than they’d perform on a small stage.
So what does this mean for Stapleton? The sportsbooks don’t seem to know! The line is all over the place. Books have it anywhere from 119 to 127 seconds, with juice toward the over as of Thursday evening. The expectation is that Stapleton’s Kentucky drawl will drag out the song quite a bit even though only 39 percent of Super Bowl anthem performances have gone over 120 seconds since 1990. I’m riding with the money backing the over and rooting for every extended syllable and extra breath.
Pick: Over 119.5 seconds
Gatorade Flavor
Let Ben Solak and Steven Ruiz grind the all-22 film. Let Sharp crunch the numbers to explore early-down efficiency metrics by personnel usage and field position. I’ll be here 40 Gen Z trends deep into the rabbit hole that is TikTok to learn what color the Gatorade dumped on the Super Bowl–winning head coach will be.
If the Eagles win, I expect Nick Sirianni to be bathed in the yellowish-green lemon-lime Gatorade. How do I know this? Lane Johnson and Fletcher Cox doused Sirianni after the Eagles’ NFC title game win against San Francisco; Philadelphia’s social media team provided us with the evidence on TikTok. Yellow/Green/Lime is the current favorite on FanDuel at +150 because TikTok sees all and sharps have caught on, one viral clip at a time.
Orange has the second-best odds on FanDuel at +280 because Chiefs head coach Andy Reid showered in the splendor of orange Gatorade when Kansas City won their Super Bowl over the 49ers in 2020.
Could either team go off-script? Could Fierce Blue Cherry, Riptide Rush, or even Frost Glacier Cherry shock the world? Of course. But there’s no reason for either team to change their process now. I’m backing the Chiefs to win, so orange is the bet for me. If you’re flying with the Eagles, you’re drinking lemon-lime all day long.
Pick: Orange
Now, to the most fun football bets:
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
These bets are always fun. They can hit anywhere from the first play to the last. They’ll also have you screaming at the TV for someone named Britain Covey to find pay dirt so you can cash a long-shot bet at 15-to-1 odds. Here are my favorites:
Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (+300)
Since Mecole Hardman is out with an injury, the Chiefs will field Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in their two-wide-receiver personnel grouping; no team in the NFL runs more two-wide-receiver sets in the red zone than Kansas City. Because Valdes-Scantling has a touch lower odds than JuJu at +290, I like the value I’m getting with Smith-Schuster at +300. He’s also second on the team behind Kelce in red zone team target share at 15 percent.
Chiefs TE Noah Gray (+1000)
More two-wide-receiver personnel in the red zone usually also means more tight ends on the field for Kansas City. Travis Kelce, not surprisingly, is the favorite of any player in the Super Bowl to score a touchdown at -125, but I don’t see any value on those odds, and the fun is picking a rando to score. If Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon does anything on Sunday, it will be throwing the kitchen sink at keeping Kelce out of the end zone. So give me Gray at 10-to-1 odds to be the beneficiary of the Kelce triple coverage. Also, Gray is the Chiefs’ go-to option in sneak situations because Kansas City has gone away from sneaking Mahomes ever since he injured his knee doing so in 2019.
Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney (+350)
I am sure the wizard that is Andy Reid will have multiple plays drawn up for Kadarius Toney in the red zone, especially with his speedster Hardman sidelined. Toney has run just 12 red-zone routes since he played his first game for the Chiefs in Week 9, but his target rate on those routes is 42 percent. He left the AFC championship game with an injury, but he’s said he will “definitely play” on Sunday, so I will definitely play his anytime touchdown prop at +350.
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (+165)
A.J. Brown finished the regular season ranked second among all pass catchers in team target share in the red zone at 34 percent. Not too much further down the list, however, is his teammate Smith at 26 percent, which was good for 15th in the NFL. Brown should get all of the extra attention when the Eagles get into scoring position, leaving Smith to steal the show.
Passing Prop
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes over 294.5 passing yards (-110)
Mahomes has thrown for more than 294.5 yards in 58 percent of the games he’s played this season, including his 326-yard performance in the Chiefs’ win over the Bengals in the AFC championship game. The Eagles’ pass defense will be one of the best Mahomes has faced all season, but expect him to rise to the occasion. In his two games against the Broncos—the team that finished the regular season first in yards per attempt allowed (6.31)—Mahomes threw for 352 and 328 yards.
Rushing Props
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Everything about this matchup screams you should take the under for Pacheco. The Eagles’ defensive front is menacing. The Chiefs run the ball less often than any team in the NFL when the game is within one possession. The Chiefs activated RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire off injured reserve, and he expects to play. There is a scenario where the Chiefs get out to a comfortable lead and are able to feed Pacheco as they sit on the ball in the second half, but I doubt that will be the case.
Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-104)
The Eagles allowed 20 or more rushing yards to quarterbacks in nine games during the regular season, and they finished the year ranked 29th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Mahomes’s lingering ankle sprain is likely driving the line a bit lower than it should be; he rushed for 20 or more yards in 10 games this season and should leverage his legs every chance he gets against Philly.
Receiving Props
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Under 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Everyone and that one random friend you wish you hadn’t invited to the Super Bowl party is going to be betting the Kelce over. It’s a square bet, and we’re staying away from it. Let everyone else mispronounce his name as they annoyingly root for every Mahomes pass to go to him. Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is going to do whatever it takes to double Kelce on every play. Kelce’s lowest single-game receiving yards total in any regular or postseason game since 2019 came against Gannon’s Eagles defense in 2021, when he had just four receptions for 23 yards on 31 routes.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Smith-Schuster is going to be the biggest benefactor of Kelce getting the Gannon treatment. I already like his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +300, so I’m riding with his over receiving yards prop as well.
DeVonta Smith Over 5.5 Receptions (+112) and Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Smith very quietly finished the regular season ninth among all pass catchers in total receiving yards (1,196), and he has at least five catches and 60 receiving yards in eight of the Eagles’ past 10 games, so while he’d have to slightly overperform those marks to hit both of these overs, it feels like good value here, especially if the Eagles manage to have a heavy passing script for the first time since Smith caught five passes for 126 yards against Chicago in Week 15.
Super Bowl MVP
Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (+130)
This is simply a veiled Chiefs moneyline bet with better odds. I expect Kelce to be held enough in check to where he’s not in the MVP conversation, and Mahomes just needs one patented game-winning drive and he’ll win MVP, regardless of his final stat line. He’s the best player on the planet. I can’t imagine a scenario where I don’t bet on Mahomes.
Line and Total
My Pick—Line: Chiefs +1.5 (-110) | Moneyline (+104)
I refuse to tell my future children that I had an opportunity to bet on Mahomes as an underdog in the Super Bowl and opted against it. I simply can’t pass up this opportunity. He’s never been a playoff underdog before, and I believe everyone will be reminded why on Sunday.
My Pick—Total: Under 50.5 (-105)
The public will continue to dump cash on the over the closer we get to Sunday. Mahomes, Hurts, both Kelce brothers, Brown, Smith, and Eagles TE Dallas Goedert are all the talk of the town, so you’d think this game is going to be all about offense. Going against the grain and betting the under is a way to avoid falling in line with the masses. Embrace being the villain at every Super Bowl soiree in America. As everyone cheers for touchdowns and exciting offense, you can stand tall, clapping for every stalled drive and coffin-corner punt.
