Somehow, after a credulity-testing Game 6 for the ages, the Celtics are still alive. Thanks to a frenetic, season-saving, buzzer-beating, result-of-sheer-will putback by Derrick White, a Game 7 will be played in Boston on Monday night with history on the line.
If it feels like that type of shot basically never happens—to win a game, staring down elimination—it’s because that type of shot basically never happens. Throw in a whole bunch of contextual factors—one minor example being the fact that teams are 0-150 in playoff series when they fall down 0-3—and it’s unclear when we’ll see that level of magic happen again.
It looked as if no drama would be needed to force a Game 7. The Celtics were up 10 with just under four minutes to go before their crunch-time offense went idle, scoring six points the rest of the way. Over that same stretch, they had to survive a 13-point sledgehammer from an otherwise timid Jimmy Butler, who drained three clutch free throws with Miami down two and just three seconds left on the clock—poetically avenging last year’s heart-wrenching miss at the end of Game 7.
The Celtics survived two wide-open 3s by a red-hot Duncan Robinson (who was 3-for-4 from deep before serving up those bricks that will keep him awake until Game 7 tips off, at least). As a team that lives and dies by the 3 ball, Boston also survived a putrid 7-for-35 shooting night behind the arc—literally its worst of the entire season—against the Heat’s blistering 14-for-30 effort.
They survived an official review that gave Butler that aforementioned third free throw (it was originally ruled a 2-point shot). They survived wild emotional swings, Malcolm Brogdon’s absence, 15 (!) fewer field goal attempts than Miami, seven more turnovers, and a defense that allowed the Heat to grab 37.1 percent of their own missed shots.
In the end, they also survived a desperation 3-point attempt by Marcus Smart that rattled in, out, and straight into White’s fingertips as he crashed the glass. “Sometimes, things just don’t break your way,” Erik Spoelstra said after the game. “It’s just a shame, you know.”
Zoom out for a minute, and what the Celtics survived was far more meaningful than a dramatic 3-point disparity or a gutsy last gasp from an all-time iconic playoff performer or Jayson Tatum making only one basket in the second half. This Celtics team also survived a pair of series-opening losses in front of their own fans before what could’ve been a direction-changing Game 3 loss, where they shot themselves in the foot two dozen times, completely splintered, then let go of the rope. Yet somehow, six days later, Boston is alive.
Now we’re at the series finale. Game 7. Winner goes to the Finals. Loser drowns in regret. Every tactical adjustment that matters between these two teams has already been made. The rotations feel set. (Miami replaced Kevin Love in its starting five with Caleb Martin, who finished Game 6 with 21 points, four 3s, and 15 rebounds.) The pick-and-roll coverages are clear. The bread-and-butter actions are well-known. Both teams know each other’s playbook almost as well as their own.
Game 7’s result will come down to execution, effort, discipline, and, of course, shotmaking. Boston will have to realize its margin for error switching on- and off-ball screens is essentially zilch against a pack of Heat role players who seemingly make them pay every single time.
The Celtics have mostly been on point executing their switch-almost-everything scheme, though, communicating well enough to hold Miami’s offensive rating at 110.3 in the last three games. Boston is big and physical and has made an asserted effort to pack the paint and contest everything at the rim. (Miami was 14-for-35 at the hoop in Game 6, which is its fourth-least accurate showing all season—two came in the play-in.)
In Game 6, when Miami was trying to target Jaylen Brown so he’d either pick up his fourth foul or go out of his way to avoid it, Boston pre-switched to keep Brown off Butler or Bam Adebayo for a key minutes-long stretch late in the third quarter. The awareness was particularly notable on this play, where Adebayo switches onto Brown on one end and then seals him in transition. But before Miami can take advantage, Brown and Rob Williams III switched, reset the matchup, and eventually got a stop:
Now, are you ready for some next-level Game 7 analysis? After staying up all night to crunch the numbers, I’ve determined that on offense, both teams have to hit shots. It’s about Tatum and Brown capitalizing on their isolation chances, rising above lesser defenders (or, as was Tatum’s case for a decent stretch in the second quarter when he repeatedly abused Butler, very good and capable defenders), and knocking something down or getting to the free throw line.
In Game 6, Butler and Adebayo combined to go 9-for-37 from the floor. If they do that again, there’s an extremely good chance the Heat will lose. Adebayo in particular has really struggled in Miami’s losses. Since this shot early in the third quarter of Game 4, with Miami up nine, seemingly in control, and ready to complete its sweep, he’s 16-for-38 from the floor and just 5-for-8 from the free throw line. When asked how he can be more efficient in Game 7, Adebayo whispered “Make a fucking shot” under his breath before actually answering the question. “For me, man, keep shooting the shots I’m shooting. I’ve got confidence in myself like no other. So for me, man, feels like a lid is on the rim, but I’ve got to figure out how I can make that basketball go in.”
Game 7 will be all about his ability to punish Celtics switches in the post, force help, and make the right reads out of a crowd:
It’ll be about gang rebounding on the defensive glass, generating second-chance opportunities, and forcing and preventing live-ball turnovers. Mistakes will be made. Which side will better leverage the errors to their advantage?
If the Celtics prevail—punching their ticket to a second straight NBA Finals and becoming the first team ever to win a playoff series down 0-3—Saturday night’s Game 6 will go down in history. White’s buzzer-beater will be replayed for decades to come. It’s the remix of Larry Bird stealing Isiah Thomas’s inbound pass and then somehow finding Dennis Johnson for a reverse layup.
Iconic. The stuff of legend. But the Celtics winning Game 7 against one of the most mentally resilient teams in basketball is still a big “if.” Miami can still win its third game of the series inside TD Garden and turn Game 6 to dust. Doing so would still qualify as one of the most shocking conference finals upsets ever, regardless of blowing a 3-0 lead, cracking the Finals as a no. 8 seed with key injuries up and down its roster.
Both sides believe they are destined to win the hard way. Both sides are confident in their star power. Both sides believe they have enough to win. But only one has been playing with its back against the wall for three straight games and is now somehow the winner of five (!) straight elimination games.
The Celtics have the momentum (if you believe in that sort of thing). They’ve somehow managed to position themselves as, somewhat incredulously, the group that nobody thought would be here, playing a Game 7, with every reason to believe they can do something no team in their sport ever has before.
“We’re still in survival mode,” Joe Mazzulla said in a celebratory postgame Celtics locker room, Tatum’s arm draped over his shoulder. “We’re still in survival mode.”
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article stated Joe Mazzulla’s challenge resulted in Jimmy Butler’s third free throw in the fourth quarter.
