This is my favorite time of year. The NBA Finals are beginning. The draft is just weeks away. Free agency and blockbuster trades are around the corner, too. It’s a time when dreams are realized and fans across the league can feel hope that their teams too will someday feel the same glory.
But for now, it’s time to lock into Thursday night’s Game 1. What can we expect from the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat in their first Finals clash?
I’m picking the Nuggets to beat the Heat in six games. No team has seemed capable of decoding the basketball wizardry of Nikola Jokic, and he’s backed by the strongest supporting cast he’s had yet. Plus, the Nuggets offense is a lot less predictable for the Heat to defend than the Bucks or Celtics were. So while I respect the Heat enough to give them two wins in the series, considering all that they’ve accomplished to make it this far, I’m still rolling with Denver.
But I can’t rule out Miami. There is something special about Jimmy Butler, and his supporting cast has playoff-caliber performers. Bam Adebayo is sensational on defense. Caleb Martin is an unexpected two-way breakout star. And the Heat are coached by Erik Spoelstra, who’s put on a master class this postseason with differing, evolving game plans within every series. The Heat are not to be underestimated.
Spo will inevitably pull out some surprises against the Nuggets. Two things I’m looking for from the Heat’s offense are related to the usage of Butler.
First, I’d expect the Heat to run more dribble handoffs than in the previous rounds. The Heat scored 1.13 points per dribble handoff against the Nuggets this season, which ranked as the team’s third-best mark against any team, according to Second Spectrum. We’ll see Max Strus and Duncan Robinson flying through handoffs, launching 3s, and hopefully drawing two defenders:
Butler or Adebayo will be delivering the ball most of the time. If Denver is forced to step out high, that’ll open pocket passes off the short roll or kickouts to players who can attack an off-balance defense.
Tyler Herro returning from his hand injury would also really benefit the Heat here because of his ability to attack off the dribble. Herro was ruled out for Game 1, but Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes expects him to return for Game 3. That’d help a lot.
In the clip above, from earlier this season, Butler screens for Kyle Lowry, and the Nuggets switch Jamal Murray onto Butler. The Heat want the Butler screen because it brings the smaller Murray into the paint as the help defender. Suddenly, Denver feels smaller than if Aaron Gordon were in that position.
Meanwhile, Adebayo and Herro run a handoff on the right side of the floor, and with Jokic stepping up, Adebayo has a lane to drive into Murray. The action that started the play brings me to my next thought: We’ll see more screens by Butler in this series, too.
This season, Butler set 17 on-ball screens against the Nuggets and scored 24 points. It’s a tiny sample size, but the action usually forces the Nuggets to switch screens, which leads to advantageous situations for the Heat. Sometimes, that edge was directly obvious for Butler:
In the clip above, Butler screens again for Lowry, and the Nuggets switch, so he rolls hard and seals away Murray to catch a pass under the rim. Jokic has no choice but to help, or else Butler will be laying the ball in. But that frees a pass to Adebayo to take an open floater.
Adebayo will need to have a big series for the Heat. He’ll need to be much better than he was closing out the Celtics. But he’ll also need to defend Jokic a lot, sustain energy, and stay out of foul trouble. It’s a lot to ask for a player on a team no one expected to still be playing.
That is, except for the Heat themselves. They’ve always believed. And maybe that’s all that’ll really matter by the time this series is over.
As for the Nuggets, here’s a fun wrinkle to watch for: the Murray post-up. During these playoffs, he’s posted up 23 times in 15 games, which Second Spectrum says is more than in his previous 33 postseason games combined.
In the same way the Nuggets naturally invert their offense by having Jokic facilitate from the perimeter, they can have Murray post up against smaller guards. Defenses often shade help toward him since he’s so good at either using his strength to back them down or shooting over defenders. And if he feels pressure, he finds open shooters.
On those 23 tries by Murray in the post, the Nuggets are scoring 1.19 points per play, an elite efficiency mark.
The mere threat of a post-up adds another layer that defenders must account for when Jokic and Murray are toying with their dribble handoffs. Watch the clip below to see how much the Lakers focus on Murray as he toggles between posting up the smaller Dennis Schröder and running through a handoff with Jokic:
Austin Reaves is offering help. The Lakers are forced into rotation. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ends up with a wide-open 3 as Gordon sets a back screen. And if KCP had been covered, Michael Porter Jr. was wide open as well.
Sequences like these are what make the Nuggets so challenging to defend. It’s not just Jokic. It’s everyone else, and the way they all operate together is like a well-oiled machine. This series should have some fascinating tactical adjustments. Let’s hope we get a great Finals.