The Denver Nuggets lost Game 2 for a variety of reasons. They allowed the Miami Heat to make 48.6 percent of their 35 3-point attempts, aided by numerous defensive miscommunications against an offense that was just as comfortable milking possessions dry as it was firing quickly.
They fouled jump shooters, and let Jimmy Butler’s gravity be nearly more effective than his actual clutch pull-up jumpers (the Nuggets were petrified of switching certain defenders onto Butler, causing several of those aforementioned breakdowns). Bam Adebayo gave Denver fits as the trigger man in a series of persistent dribble handoffs. Miami’s defense was physical, relentless, adaptable, and uncompromising. The Heat pressured the ball full court and got timely stops in the fourth quarter with their zone. All that, and more, ultimately led to Denver’s 111-108 undoing, squaring the NBA Finals at one game apiece.
And then there’s Nikola Jokic. The two-time MVP was incredible Sunday night, scoring 41 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and conducting an offense that generated an unbelievable 124.1 points per 100 possessions.
But Jokic’s Sunday night was a fascinating contrast to how he played in the series opener. In Game 1, Jokic was his poised, unflappable, and his usual selfless self. He had 14 assists, didn’t make his first basket until there was three seconds left in the first quarter, only took 12 total shots, and completely overwhelmed Miami during his time on the court.
Game 2 was drastically different. Jokic finished with a playoff-low four assists and he committed five turnovers. According to Second Spectrum, his 11 potential assists were tied for his third-fewest in this postseason. He also launched a whopping 28 shots, which is more than he took during any game in the regular season.
That box score, combined with a disappointing Nuggets loss, calls to attention a pervasive school of thought held by some around the NBA: The “best” way to short-circuit Denver’s league-leading offense is to “make” Jokic into a scorer. It’s somewhat of a silly concept. Jokic reacts to what he sees, yes, but he’s also a dominant force who can pretty much do whatever he wants with the ball in his hands. In Game 2, Jokic was intent on putting the ball in the basket, while facing off against a defense that wasn’t in any hurry to persuade him otherwise.
The fact that it resulted in a loss is more curious than irrefutable proof of some blueprint. Still, there are some interesting numbers that Miami shouldn’t entirely ignore: The Nuggets were 14-2 during the regular season when Jokic attempted 10 or fewer shots. They were 7-13 when he recorded eight or fewer assists. In one of their three previous losses this postseason, against the Timberwolves, Jokic had only six assists and took 26 shots. In another loss, against the Suns, he had 53 points and 30 shots. Sunday night dropped Jokic to 0-4 all time in playoff games in which he scored at least 40.
Some might look at this as a results-based coincidence. They could be right. In Game 2 of the second round, Denver beat Phoenix on a night when Jokic took 30 shots and had only five dimes. But there’s logic behind deploying a scheme that encourages the best passer in the league to shoot while limiting opportunities for his teammates. The strategic rationale is that when other Nuggets are less involved as scorers, the team’s collaborative identity shifts into something with less rhythm. And the trickle-down effect is then felt in obstructive ways. Maybe Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or Bruce Brown feel less involved and it disrupts their concentration on the defensive end, or convinces them to be a little less patient when a scoring chance presents itself?
It’s a step too far to suggest the Heat “let” Jokic score, though. They still fronted to deny him entry passes whenever they could. They switched coverages up. They even doubled him on a post-up late in the second quarter (that eventually led to Jokic miraculously putting back his own miss):
Jokic looked for his shot because that’s what Miami’s defensive actions kept calling for. He attacked the paint in transition, and went quick whenever he caught the ball in the middle of Miami’s zone late in the game. There wasn’t anything selfish about his play, though. He found teammates whenever the situation called for it—particularly Porter Jr., who had another off night and missed a couple of great looks directly off a Jokic dime.
But the Heat’s prevailing defensive coverage against Jokic was one-on-one, whether it was against Adebayo or Cody Zeller, who had a particularly tough go late in the third quarter against a flurry of backdowns. It’s one thing to keep your game plan going when it’s having an obvious positive effect. It’s another to ride things out as Jokic keeps punching you in the face, which is more or less what Miami did.
“Joker is like a point guard out there, so whatever he sees and reads that’s how he plays,” Nuggets veteran Ish Smith told The Ringer. “Tonight they was playing him that way. And like he did for us in Phoenix, he got us 50 in Phoenix and almost won the game then. And so that’s what the game called for. Whatever they did, you know, obviously [we] came up short, but they still didn’t stop him. He scored 41.”
Michael Malone was unfazed by his franchise center’s unusual box score. “I trust Nikola. He’s going to read the game. He’s going to read how he’s being guarded, and he’s also going to pick his spots where he knows regardless of how he’s being guarded, we need him to score and be aggressive and look to score,” Malone said. “Whether it’s 41 points, only four assists, or it’s 25 points and 15 assists, Nikola, one thing I trust about him is he’s going to make the right read time and time again.”
On the other side, Erik Spoelstra didn’t believe his team was able to dictate Jokic’s decision-making, quickly dismissing the idea. “Yeah, that’s a ridiculous … that’s the untrained eye that says something like that. This guy is an incredible player. You know, twice in two seasons he’s been the best player on this planet. You can’t just say, Oh, make him a scorer. That’s not how they play. They have so many different actions that just get you compromised. We have to focus on what we do. We try to do things the hard way, and he requires you to do many things the hard way. He has our full respect.”
Both Malone and Spoelstra can be right here. The Nuggets move Jokic all over the floor, in areas that foster efficient looks as both a scorer or a passer. It’s up to the two-time MVP how he handles possessions. But the Heat aren’t helpless in this equation, either. They know corner kicks and lobs to dunkers are highly efficient morale boosters for an offense that’s chock full of assorted threats.
None of this is meant to be a criticism of Jokic’s night. The guy had 41 points on 28 shots, and the Nuggets (who led by as many as 15) lost for all the reasons (and then some) mentioned above. Had a couple of possessions gone another way, Denver could easily be up 2-0. (Jamal Murray narrowly missed a 3 at the buzzer that would’ve tied the game!)
But they didn’t, and a Heat team that still has extremely slight margins working against them managed to tie these Finals up, with incredible shot-making, extra effort, and a cogent plan.
“He can have 50 in a game pretty easily, so you kind of pick your poison. But whatever we did worked tonight,” Zeller told The Ringer. “It might not work in Game 3. That’s how good he is. We’re excited about 41, you know?”
