Four Potential Suitors in the Inscrutable Bradley Beal Sweepstakes
The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s value is complicated by his massive contract, its no-trade clause, and the harsh tax penalties in the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement. What would a deal for Beal look like, and which teams might be interested?
The best time to trade Bradley Beal would have been the fall of 2020, when a bevy of potential suitors were dangling draft picks and star-level talent in front of the Washington Wizards. The second-best time would have been the summer of 2021, when a bevy of potential suitors were dangling more draft picks and star-level talent in front of the Wizards. Washington was even well positioned five months ago, at the trade deadline, when it could have turned a Beal trade into the first domino of a fire sale and gotten a decent return on Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis (who both hold player options this summer).
But the Wizards dragged their feet, and now, thanks to Beal’s age and lowered productivity, coupled with a new collective bargaining agreement that limits the options of high-spending teams, the market for Beal is drier than ever. Still, better late than never. Three weeks after Michael Winger was hired to replace former general manager Tommy Sheppard, Beal and the Wizards’ uncoupling process may finally be starting in earnest. On Wednesday, ESPN and The Athletic reported that the two sides will work together to find Beal a new home if the Wizards do opt to rebuild.
The Offer Sheet
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Winger, a former Clippers exec by way of Oklahoma City, traded Blake Griffin in his first year on the job in L.A., just six months after the Clippers lured Griffin back in free agency with a presentation that envisioned him retiring as a lifelong Clipper. This is an unsentimental exec well versed in the mechanics of rebuilds.
In his introductory press conference, he struck a patient but ambitious chord. “The eventual expectation is that we’re going to build a generational contender. We’re going to eventually have a team that is competing for championships. I can’t promise when that will be. But there’s no excuse for the lone NBA team in Washington, D.C., not to be a perennial contender.”
You have to love the light suggestion that Washington, which filled an NBA-low 89 percent of its available seats this season, could house a second NBA team. But a lack of fan inspiration is precisely the problem Winger and Co.—including new hires Travis Schlenk, who was last the architect of Atlanta’s rebuild, and Will Dawkins, another former Thunder exec—were hired to solve.
Winger is also known as a cap guru, an important skill as the league learns to navigate the fresh terrain of the new CBA. The early returns on the number crunching are not friendly to Beal, who is the NBA’s fifth-highest-paid player, turns 30 in two weeks, is owed $208 million over the next four years, and has a 15 percent trade kicker and a no-trade clause (the only one in the NBA) that will follow him to his next destination. The Wizards agreed to this albatross on the opening day of free agency last season because they knew it would be the only way to retain his services.
Before we get into the ramifications of the new CBA, here’s a quick overview of the most relevant factors for would-be Beal suitors: Crossing the first luxury tax apron, at $169 million, means shrinking your taxpayer midlevel exception from $10 million to $5 million and losing the ability to sign waived players who made more than that MLE. Teams that cross the second apron, at $179.5 million, will lose their taxpayer midlevel exception altogether, can’t sign buyout players, can’t accept more salary than they send out in a trade, can’t aggregate multiple contracts into a trade, and can’t trade their first-round pick seven years into the future. If a team exceeds the second apron twice in four years, their pick automatically gets moved to the end of the first round.
Superteams will be nearly impossible to construct. Role players on star-heavy contenders will have to accept pay cuts. But the seemingly dry market for Beal reveals another potential consequence: Will teams have to be especially stingy about doling out the supermax? The Steph Currys and Giannis Antetokounmpos of the world can, will, and should command contracts of the highest magnitude. But what about the class of stars below them, like Beal?
Jaylen Brown, for example, is eligible for a supermax extension. But Jayson Tatum will also be eligible a year from now, meaning the Celtics could owe $613 million to two players—or approximately $123 million per year. Boston doesn’t necessarily have to offer Brown that much, especially since it can fill his pockets more than any other team, but as a union vice president and pissed-off perpetual trade bait, he’s not exactly incentivized to leave much on the table. According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the Celtics won’t be involved in the Beal sweepstakes, opting instead to focus on retaining Brown, a player Washington probably had a shot at a few years ago. But at this stage, with Beal coming off his two worst seasons since he shared the ball with John Wall, he isn’t mesmerizing enough to net the Wizards a player of Brown’s caliber.
With that said, let’s dive into some of Beal’s potential suitors and the offers they can and can’t make.
Miami Heat
Tyler Herro, whose four-year, $130 million extension kicks in next season, wasn’t juicy enough trade bait to help the Heat snag Kevin Durant last summer. Who knows whether Herro is enough to entice the Blazers to move on from Damian Lillard, but right now, Herro is likely the best young player Washington could get in return for Beal.
Despite holding the Nuggets to their lowest scoring efficiency of the playoffs, the Heat couldn’t produce enough consistent offense to keep up in the Finals. Jimmy Butler, 34 next season, leaned too hard into playmaking, roving the perimeter and kicking the ball out to semi-contested shooters. But a scorer like Beal would justify Butler’s deference. Beal, who generated 1.29 points per possession last year on handoffs, according to Second Spectrum, could play a destructive two-man game alongside Bam Adebayo. Trading for Beal would give Miami exactly the punch it needs without destabilizing its continuity or scheme. Beal, who reportedly named Miami and Milwaukee as two teams he’d be willing to accept a trade to, also seems aware of the hand-in-glove fit.
Miami could flip Herro and Kyle Lowry, who resurrected his trade value in a vintage pesky Game 5 Finals loss, for Beal and Monte Morris. Or the Heat could keep Lowry—whose $30 million will come off the books at the end of the 2023-24 season and who would give them some cushion against the second apron—and ship Duncan Robinson out instead. Miami can also trade its 2023 or 2028 first-round picks and young players like Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic, and Haywood Highsmith.
Milwaukee Bucks
With Giannis up for an extension after a first-round loss, the Bucks practically have to upgrade their roster. But their path to acquiring Beal would be complicated.
Milwaukee has $157.8 million on the books next season if Khris Middleton opts into his player option for $40 million—the kind of deal that might be hard for him to match under the new CBA. If Beal doesn’t opt into his trade kicker, a Middleton-Beal swap would be somewhat simple. If he does, the extra $7 million on Milwaukee’s books next year could make things complicated. Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, and Brook Lopez are free agents this summer, and while the market for high-level role players remains unclear, the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year will garner plenty of interest. Let’s say Lopez agrees to a deal similar to the $14 million a year he made last season. Milwaukee could re-sign him and stay just under the apron, but thanks to gradual salary upticks for Giannis and Jrue Holiday, it’ll be over it next season, when the CBA’s consequences kick in. Maybe the Bucks could sign Lopez to a descending deal to cut some future salary, but we’re piling up hypotheticals here before even getting to the bigger issue: what Milwaukee has to offer beyond Middleton.
The Wizards would almost certainly want MarJon Beauchamp, a 22-year-old who can clamp down in isolation and flashes three-level scoring potential. The Bucks are draft-pick dry, especially in the aftermath of the disastrous Crowder deal, but they could offer a potentially explosive first-round pick in 2029. Fuck it. If Giannis is gone by then, it’s likely that the current front office will be, too.
But all that hinges on whether the Wizards would accept a package centered on Middleton, whom they’d likely try to swap soon after. If the Wizards will talk ball only on a Holiday-centered deal that would include, say, Bobby Portis, the Bucks would have to retool beyond acquiring Beal and would have precious few resources to do so.
New York Knicks
This trade could be complicated by one of the lesser-known clauses in the new CBA, the unofficial rule that the Knicks can’t trade for any non-CAA-represented star.
In all seriousness, New York has the assets and the cap space to complete a trade for Beal. With RJ Barrett’s new deal set to kick in, packaging him with Evan Fournier would almost be enough to make the money work.
Barrett is overpaid as of now, but he’s young, and the sooner he settles into his birthright as the next Andrew Wiggins—a high-level Canadian prospect who was miscast as a high-usage scoring option but is meant to lock down perimeter scorers and score around the edges—the sooner he’ll thrive. New York could also dangle Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin. More important, New York can trade up to eight first-round picks, one of which originally belonged to Milwaukee.
If the Knicks really want Beal, and just as important, if Beal wants them, they could outbid Miami. The question is whether they could trade for Beal and retain enough assets to put together a package to trade for the next superstar that becomes available. As copacetic and potent as a Jalen Brunson–Beal backcourt would be, it wouldn’t make the Knicks contenders.
The other thing for the Knicks to consider, after a season that served as proof of competence for prospective free agents, is whether they’re better off saving their cap space. New York is projected to be below the cap two years from now. In 2025-26, when Beal is slated to make over $53 million, the only players on the Knicks’ books will be Mitchell Robinson and Barrett, as well as Brunson and Julius Randle should they opt into their player options.
Philadelphia 76ers
Close your eyes. Think back to the days before JJ Redick was a podcaster. Remember the potency of his handoff connection with Joel Embiid. Now multiply that by four in volume. That’s the kind of production Beal could infuse into a roster that might have to contend with the departure of James Harden.
Tobias Harris, perpetual trade bait, makes only $7 million less than Beal, and he just about played himself out of albatross-contract status this postseason. Tyrese Maxey won’t be on the table. And the Sixers’ first-round pick in 2029 likely won’t be, either.
As John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported, the Sixers probably won’t go after Beal because of—you guessed it—the size of his contract and the ramifications of the new CBA.
