Takeaways, Story Lines, and Favorites Heading Into the Women’s World Cup Round of 16
The 2023 women’s World Cup has seen no shortage of shocking upsets and stunning goals. What did we learn from the group stage, which players have shined the brightest, and is the USWNT no longer the favorite to win it all?
The group stages of the biggest-ever women’s World Cup have wrapped up after a breathtaking fortnight in Australia and New Zealand. No World Cup group stage has ever seen so many tournament favorites sent home packing in the first round. Nations have been underestimated and overestimated, and some players have even put a finger up to their own federation with their performances—both good and bad. Along the way, breakout stars have made a name for themselves, and stunning goals have been scored. Ahead of the round of 16, here are the key takeaways and story lines in the 2023 World Cup so far.
Key takeaways from the groups? Play on the counter, and don’t underestimate anyone.
The main thing this World Cup has shown us is that you shouldn’t predict any results—you will be made to look foolish. The expansion of the tournament from 24 teams to 32 looked like it would reveal the gap between the haves and the have-nots, with the tournament easily stratifying into a top 16 who would go through to the knockouts. In fact, the opposite has happened.
Shock exits have abounded, with Olympic gold medalists Canada, European Championship finalists Germany, and 2007 World Cup finalists Brazil all heading home after the group stage. For the first time at a women’s World Cup, three African teams, including tournament debutants Morocco, progressed to the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, reigning back-to-back champions USA were just a wood chip of a post away from being knocked out by Portugal. Expect the unexpected when it comes to the women’s World Cup.
Why has this happened? The expansion to 32 teams has surely helped some of the “smaller” nations. Every team at the tournament likely felt there was at least one winnable game in their group. At the 2019 World Cup, five of the six groups finished with a team on zero points. This summer, only four of eight groups had the same outcome. Teams like Morocco and Jamaica relied on wins over nations like South Korea and Panama to clinch their knockout spots.
Effective counterattacking has been a big part of that parity. Like David against Goliath, less established sides have used fast breaks to catch their opponents off guard. Teams like Nigeria and South Africa have excelled at using long balls or high turnovers to create goal-scoring opportunities for their forwards. This was especially evident in Japan’s 4-0 win over Spain, probably the most impressive display of the group stage. Japan happily let Spain have huge amounts of possession and then swiftly hit them on the counter. Japan’s three first-half goals were scored from only three touches in the box.
These tactical ploys have shown that being rich is no longer good enough when it comes to the women’s game. For decades, nations that invested significantly in women’s soccer earlier in its history had a huge first-mover advantage. That has begun to change as the globalization of the women’s game has allowed players who might have been overlooked before to instead develop in some of the world’s best environments for women’s soccer.
For some players, that has meant being scouted by prominent foreign leagues to be a part of the most advanced setups within the club game. For others, that development has occurred domestically—it is notable that Colombia, which topped Group H, has a fully professional league system, while Germany, which finished third, does not. Nigeria and Jamaica have boosted their own domestic programs with players who were once part of the English youth system. Panama, the Philippines, and South Korea have done something similar with the U.S. youth system.
All of this means that regardless of how much tradition a nation’s women’s soccer program has, results can come down to coaching—simply having fit or technically advanced players will not guarantee a significant advantage. If a federation allows its dedication to its women’s program to waver for even a second, there is now a nation ready and waiting to take its place.
New nations, new faces, incredible soccer players.
If this World Cup has been about new faces in terms of nations, it has also been about new faces in terms of players. The youngsters are thriving, with plenty of World Cup debutants making their names on the biggest possible stage. Lauren James was tipped by many to have a breakout tournament but was left on the bench for most of England’s first match. Her 30-minute cameo in that game was enough to convince Sarina Wiegman to reverse her decision, and James scored the game winner in England’s second match, against Denmark. Against China, she went on to score twice more and rack up three assists, becoming the youngest player ever to have five goal contributions in a women’s World Cup match.
Elsewhere, Kyra Cooney-Cross has excelled for Australia in a midfield duo with Katrina Gorry. The former, a 21-year-old, has looked comfortable throughout the tournament despite some hairy moments for the hosts after their 3-2 defeat to Nigeria. The Hammarby midfielder has long been tipped for success at the highest level, but few could have imagined she would look this at home on the team so soon. Her calm head and on-the-ball ability have been essential for Australia.
It has also been a big tournament for NWSL players. Angel City’s Jun Endo made one of the most impressive assists of the tournament with a ball that Hinata Miyazawa latched on to to open the scoring for Japan against Spain. Racing Louisville’s Thembi Kgatlana helped South Africa reach the knockout stages for the first time with her speed and precision on the break—she scored two goals and registered two assists in the team’s three group matches. Her club teammate Ary Borges might have gone out with Brazil in the group stage, but her hat trick against Panama was exceptional—as was her little backheel flick assist in that match.
Colombia, however, might be the team with the most players fit and firing. Linda Caicedo showed exactly why there was such a fight to get her signature the moment she turned 18 when she scored an incredible goal against Germany, chopping the ball inside before firing a shot into the top corner. Manuela Vanegas has impressed with her ability to get up and down the pitch at left back, topped off by her headed winner against Germany, which was one of the best moments of the group stage. But it is Mayra Ramírez who has shined the brightest of all. The roving no. 9, who plays for Levante in Spain, has caused defenses all sorts of problems with her physical dominance and ability to drive with the ball. Her play has opened up plenty of space for the rest of her attacking teammates.
What’s coming next? A classic World Cup grudge match, geopolitical revenge opportunities, and tactical tweaks.
The main thing everyone will be looking out for in the knockouts is more upsets: Can the teams who beat the odds to get out of the group stage continue to surprise in the knockout rounds? There’s an intriguing geopolitical dimension to some of the matchups, too: All three African nations to advance—Nigeria, South Africa, and Morocco—are up against countries that formerly colonized them (England, the Netherlands, and France, respectively). Just in case we needed any more intrigue.
The focus will also be on the U.S., which has looked less than convincing in the tournament so far. The Americans won only one group game, against Vietnam, and looked fresh out of ideas when facing the Netherlands and Portugal. Finishing second in its group means the USWNT now has to play Sweden, a side it has plenty of history against. This was the first group stage since 1999 in which the two teams hadn’t been drawn together; the quadrennial meeting between the two nations is a key part of women’s World Cup lore. Altogether, Sweden vs. USA is the most played matchup in FIFA Women’s World Cup history, with their seventh meeting coming on Sunday. Sweden also humiliated the U.S. 3-0 in the group stage at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, an early warning sign that the U.S. would struggle in that tournament. The Swedes now have the opportunity to knock the U.S. out of a World Cup at the earliest point ever, and unless the U.S. shape up quickly, you would not bet against the Scandinavians.
Tactically, it will be interesting to see how the remaining back-three systems in the tournament fare. Both Japan and the Netherlands had strong group stages using that formation, and England’s impressive 6-1 win over China came after England moved away from a 4-2-3-1 to play a 3-5-2. Sweden have also used a variation of a back three when in possession due to injuries that left the team without many natural fullbacks. The formations used in the knockout stages could have a big bearing on who makes it deeper into the tournament.
Who are the favorites from here?
To be honest, at this point, who isn’t a favorite to win? The unpredictability of the group stages has left everything feeling up for grabs.
The team who look to have benefited most from the surprise exits is probably England. When the World Cup draw was made, that bottom half of the bracket looked tough, with six of the top 10 FIFA-ranked teams potentially placed there. Suddenly, however, three of those teams have gone home, with England now set to face Nigeria in the round of 16 and either Colombia or Jamaica awaiting after that. England will know that, given what these teams have achieved already at the World Cup, those matches are not to be taken lightly—but it is hard not to think that England will be relieved about the teams who have gone home. They had not beaten Germany, Brazil, or Canada over 90 minutes in the past year.
In terms of pure performances, Japan have looked like the actual best team at this World Cup so far. They have shown they can tactically adapt depending on their opponents, having played on the front foot against Zambia and Costa Rica but sitting back against Spain, and have scored 11 goals while conceding none, by far the best goal difference of the group stage. Japan have also managed to rotate their squad effectively: Only one of their outfield players has yet to play a single minute, and only two played every minute of the group stage.
Finally, until the U.S. actually go out of the tournament, it feels very hard to write them off. Yes, they have looked pretty mediocre in terms of their play so far, but they have also won the last two World Cups and have more experience than anyone when it comes to winning. The famed U.S. “mentality” can be over-egged, but there is no doubt that this is a team that’s not done until it’s done. If Vlatko Andonovski can figure out how best to unleash Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman, their attack could burst into life, and the U.S. have conceded just one shot on target the whole tournament. Other teams should, and will, still be wary of them.
Final thoughts: Ignore the rankings, ignore the off-field noise, and ignore any team’s early results.
A regular concern around professional athletes is whether they are actually dedicated enough to their sport. Even though these players have made huge sacrifices to reach the top of soccer and to be at the World Cup, some people outside these team environments are worried that they are not taking it seriously enough. Take Germany, for example, who some suggest got knocked out of the competition because they brought along a koala bear called Waru who had been crocheted by winger Klara Bühl. The U.S. are also apparently at risk because they had the temerity to dance after drawing 0-0 against Portugal and finishing only second in their group—not outright winning it, as the U.S. usually do. For some viewers who may be in doubt about what is actually happening on a soccer pitch, off-field behavior can be a cheap explanation to fall back on.
Germany are also to blame for catfishing World Cup watchers. After they won their opener 6-0 against Morocco, people were ready to crown them Weltmeisters, but then Germany failed to win their next two matches and got knocked out. Brazil pulled a similar trick by beating Panama in the first game but still failing to make the next round. It is still unclear whether Spain will fall into this category: The Spanish comprehensively won their first two games to book their ticket to the last 16 before losing 4-0 to Japan in the final group game. They’re ones to watch depending on their round of 16 result against Switzerland.
But perhaps the biggest catfisher of all is the FIFA rankings. If soccer were played just based on the rankings, well, it would be a much more boring sport. As it is, teams are proving that merely moving up and down a chart based on the games you play (or don’t play) is a rather limited measure of actual ability. Fortunately, having a global tournament every four years means we get to watch everyone play, so the results can speak for themselves.
Jessy Parker Humphreys is a freelance women’s soccer writer and broadcaster. They are part of The Ringer’s Counter Pressed podcast and regularly write for The Analyst, FourFourTwo, and Optus Sport.