The New York Jets were the worst defense in the NFL in 2021, but by the end of last season, they had made a huge leap, climbing all the way up to no. 5. And that sort of jump is hardly unusual. Fluctuation is common when we look at defense; a team’s performance will swing because of turnovers, the strength of opponents, and injury luck. This type of year-over-year variance is not nearly as common on offense because the quarterback has an oversized impact on its performance.
So which defense will be this year’s version of the 2022 Jets and rise, and which good units from last year will fall off in 2023? Let’s rank the best defenses of 2023 based on preseason projections.
1. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have produced a defense that has ranked in the top three in the NFL in each of the past two seasons, and I don’t project a drop-off in 2023.
They’ve got a game wrecker up front in linebacker Micah Parsons, who is 24 years old and coming off a 13.5-sack season. They upgraded the secondary by trading for veteran corner Stephon Gilmore to play opposite Trevon Diggs. Gilmore will turn 33 in September, and while there’s always risk with older corners, the Cowboys aren’t putting all their eggs in one basket. They’re deep and versatile on the back end and would be able to withstand Gilmore suffering an injury or his play declining.
Among the 12 players who logged 500-plus snaps on defense for the Cowboys last season, 10 are back. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has reinvented himself in Dallas and shown he’s capable of adjusting to his personnel.
Sometimes, football isn’t that complicated. The Cowboys can rush the passer and cover. They were good last year, have continuity with scheme and personnel, and are well coached. The pieces are in place for this to be a great defense again.
2. New York Jets
There wasn’t a lot of smoke and mirrors with the Jets defense last season. It faced the hardest schedule of opposing offenses and still finished third in defensive success rate. So what’s in store for 2023? On one hand, the Jets defense had the best injury luck in the league, and that’s unlikely to repeat, so its depth will be tested more. On the other hand, the 2022 Jets defense had just 16 takeaways, which certainly could have been because it faced such a tough lineup of opposing offenses. That takeaway number will likely see a bump.
From a talent perspective, the Jets have an elite defensive tackle in Quinnen Williams and an elite corner in Sauce Gardner. That’s a great foundation. They are deep at defensive end, with a nice blend of veterans (John Franklin-Myers, Carl Lawson) and young players (Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald IV).
The Jets have talent at premium positions, and they have young players who should theoretically be ascending. Plus, they have continuity with the scheme and the coaching staff. I think the Jets will field one of the NFL’s best defenses once again.
3. Cleveland Browns
Surprise! You didn’t think I’d just go with chalk from last season’s rankings, did you? The Browns defense is my pick for most improved in the NFL. They bolstered their defensive line with edge defender Za’Darius Smith and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. Smith had 10 sacks and 24 QB hits last season and should be an excellent complement to Myles Garrett. Led by Denzel Ward, the Browns are strong at corner too.
Jim Schwartz takes over as defensive coordinator, replacing Joe Woods. In five seasons with the Eagles from 2016 to 2020, Schwartz produced two top-five defenses, and his units never finished worse than 15th. There’s plenty of talent here to produce a great defense, and I like Garrett’s chances of winning Defensive Player of the Year. Schwartz will put him in position to record career-best numbers.
The Browns will be able to rush the passer. They’ll be able to cover. And they’re well coached. I see a high ceiling for this defense.
4. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco made a splash in free agency, signing one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL in Javon Hargrave. Team Hargrave with edge defender Nick Bosa (assuming Bosa ends his holdout by the start of the regular season), defensive tackle Arik Armstead, and linebacker Fred Warner, and you have one of the best front-seven units in the league.
On the back end, San Francisco brings back four of five starters, with the only exception being slot corner Jimmie Ward, who left in free agency. One possible area where they could regress is turnover luck. Only the Patriots gained more expected points added on takeaways than the 49ers last season. That type of thing can fluctuate from season to season.
Then again, so can injury luck, and the 49ers were unlucky last season. They finished 24th in adjusted games lost and still ranked first in defensive DVOA.
My only real question is whether they’ll suffer a drop-off at defensive coordinator. DeMeco Ryans consistently showed an ability to coach around injuries and weak areas of the defensive roster. His replacement, Steve Wilks, might not be as effective, but Wilks is a veteran coach, and he has a lot of talent to work with. This looks like it’ll be an excellent defense once again.
5. Carolina Panthers
Another big swing! I’m so ready to get myself on @OldTakesExposed in like Week 7 if this defense stinks.
But here’s the case for Carolina. The Panthers have young, ascending talent at premium positions, and they complemented that talent with solid veterans. Up front, the Panthers have edge rusher Brian Burns and defensive tackle Derrick Brown, a pair of first-round picks, and I liked the decision to add veteran pass rusher Justin Houston in August. Linebacker Frankie Luvu was a fun player last season. Jaycee Horn, the team’s first-round pick in 2021, has the tools to be a no. 1 corner if he stays healthy. Jeremy Chinn, Vonn Bell, and Xavier Woods give the Panthers versatility at safety.
The Panthers finished 25th in defensive DVOA last year. But they added defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who comes over from Denver, where he quietly coached the Broncos defense to a no. 10 DVOA ranking.
Last year was a disaster for the Panthers organization, with former head coach Matt Rhule getting fired in the middle of the season. They faced a tough schedule of opposing offenses and ranked 25th in EPA on takeaways. This year, the Panthers face the fourth-easiest overall schedule. I think they’ll make a big leap defensively and surprise people. When I’m wrong, you can ruthlessly mock me.
6. Buffalo Bills
Only the Titans had worse injury luck on defense than the Bills last year, yet Buffalo still managed to finish fourth in defensive DVOA. Edge defender Von Miller, cornerback Tre’Davious White, safety Micah Hyde, and safety Jordan Poyer combined to play just 31 games total. Just getting those players on the field more will go a long way in giving this defense a boost.
The Bills have scheme continuity, although head coach Sean McDermott will take over play-calling duties from previous defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Up front, Miller tied for the team lead with eight sacks, even though he missed five games. The Bills have invested quite a bit in their pass rush and need young defensive linemen like Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa to continue to take steps forward.
Matt Milano is one of the NFL’s best linebackers, and in the secondary, the key will be health. If White, Poyer, and Hyde are on the field together, this defense should be really good.
Still, a couple of things give me pause with this unit. One, it’s relying on older players—Miller, Poyer, and Hyde are all 32 or older. And two, I wonder how McDermott will handle the play-calling, given all his other in-game responsibilities. Even with those doubts, I’ll trust the infrastructure here. In the past five years, the Bills have finished in the top eight in defensive DVOA four times and have never been lower than 12th. This should once again be a strong defense.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
There’s a lot to like about this group. The Steelers finished 12th in defensive DVOA last year, and that was with edge defender T.J. Watt missing seven games due to injury. Everything here starts with a deep front that includes Watt, veteran defensive lineman Cam Heyward, and edge defender Alex Highsmith. The complementary pieces (Larry Ogunjobi, Keeanu Benton, Markus Golden) are nice too.
In the back end, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best defensive players in football. Ultimately, the fate of the Steelers defense will be determined by whether their dart throws at corner pan out. Pittsburgh signed 33-year-old Patrick Peterson and used the 32nd pick (the first selection in the second round) on Joey Porter Jr. The team also has veterans Levi Wallace and Chandon Sullivan.
If the Steelers can get competent cornerback play, the pieces up front are good enough to elevate this group to a top-10 unit.
8. New England Patriots
This looks like a defense that’s likely to regress from 2022. No defense benefited more from turnovers than the Patriots last season. New England’s 30 takeaways were tied for second most in the league, and the Patriots’ EPA from those takeaways was tops in the league. That type of turnover benefit is hard to count on year to year, but especially in this case, when you consider that the Patriots face the NFL’s toughest projected schedule in 2023. And the second reason for regression is health. Only three defenses had better injury luck than the Patriots last year. Their depth is likely to get tested more this season.
Having said all of that, I still think this looks like a good group, and its continuity is nearly unmatched. Among the 13 players who logged 400-plus defensive snaps last year, 12 are back. The only exception is veteran safety Devin McCourty, who retired. The Patriots had the third-highest sack rate (8.3 percent) in the NFL last season, and their pass-rush group—led by edge rushers Matthew Judon and Josh Uche—should be strong once again.
The Patriots have some questions at corner, but they’re deep at that position and have options. The Patriots drafted Christian Gonzalez with the 17th pick. That selection could eventually look like a steal, but rookie corners can be up and down. And the loss of McCourty, who had started every game for the Patriots since 2016, shouldn’t be discounted.
The Patriots ranked third in defensive DVOA last season, and I think they’re likely to take a step back.
The Ringer’s Fantasy Football Rankings
From sleepers to busts, we’ve projected every player in your upcoming draft.
9. Baltimore Ravens
I had the Ravens in my top five until cornerback Marlon Humphrey went down with a foot injury that will require surgery. If Humphrey returns early in the season and looks like himself, I really like this defense. If he doesn’t, I have concerns.
Trading for linebacker Roquan Smith made a big difference for the Ravens last season. They had Smith for a 10-game stretch (playoffs included) starting in Week 9. During that period, the Ravens ranked third in defensive DVOA.
Marcus Williams is a reliable veteran safety, and defensive back Kyle Hamilton showed off his versatility playing the slot during a promising rookie season. Hamilton could be a breakout star in 2023.
What are the concerns? The Ravens’ pass rush is unproven. They added Jadeveon Clowney but still need young edge defenders like Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo to be impact players. And without Humphrey, corner is a big question. Even with Humphrey, it’s not a deep group.
I trust the infrastructure here with head coach John Harbaugh, and I liked what I saw from defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald last season. I’m bullish on the young Ravens players’ up-front development and the quality of this defense, but given the questions at premium positions, I can’t put them any higher.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Don’t sleep on this group. So much went wrong for the Bucs defense last year—injuries, bad turnover luck—and it still finished 13th in defensive DVOA.
Tampa Bay still has a lot of good players: edge Shaquil Barrett, defensive tackle Vita Vea, linebacker Lavonte David, corners Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. And it has scheme continuity with head coach and former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.
In four seasons under Bowles, the Bucs have produced three top-10 defenses, and they’ve never finished worse than 13th. I think Tampa Bay will be a bad team overall, but this defense might be too good for the Bucs to wind up in the running for quarterback prospects Caleb Williams or Drake Maye at the top of the 2024 draft.
11. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have had one of the NFL’s most consistent defensive units, stringing together five straight top-10 (DVOA) seasons, including in 2022, when it ranked eighth. Last year’s performance was especially impressive when you consider that the Saints ranked last in EPA from takeaways. No defense benefited less from turnovers, and it was still really, really good.
But it’s not the same group in 2023. Edge defender Cameron Jordan sets the tone, but other than him, it’s largely an unproven group up front. The Saints lost four defensive linemen who each logged 400-plus snaps last season—David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, Kentavius Street, Marcus Davenport. That’s a lot of production to replace.
At linebacker, Demario Davis is still among the best players at his position, but he’s 34 years old, so a drop-off could be coming. The Saints are deep and talented at corner and have a pair of veteran safeties in Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye.
There’s still plenty to like here, with a proven defensive play caller in Dennis Allen and strong veteran leadership from Jordan and Davis. I worry about the turnover on the defensive line and the fact that they’re relying on so many guys (Jordan, Davis, Mathieu, Maye) who are 30-plus. I think this is a good group, but it could take a slight step back.
12. Miami Dolphins
This was an unlucky group last year, and the Dolphins still finished a respectable 15th in defensive DVOA, even though they had the sixth-worst injury luck among defenses. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had just 14 takeaways—tied for second fewest. Based on EPA, only the Saints defense benefited less from takeaways than the Dolphins did. Take everything else away and just give the Dolphins league-average injury luck and league-average turnover luck, and they might be pushing for a spot in the top 10.
And I haven’t even mentioned Vic Fangio yet. The Dolphins added one of the most innovative defensive minds of the past 20 years to their staff this offseason, and he has plenty of talent to work with. They are talented up front, and third-year defensive lineman Jaelan Phillips is positioned to become a breakout star. The training camp injury to cornerback Jalen Ramsey hurts, but the Dolphins still have veteran corner Xavien Howard, and the safety tandem of Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones is one of the better duos in the NFL.
I would have ranked the Dolphins higher before the Ramsey injury, but even with that setback, I like this defense’s chances of being better than last year.
13. Denver Broncos
Amid last year’s trainwreck season in Denver, the Broncos actually fielded a good defense. It finished 10th in DVOA, even though it was one of the most injured defenses in the NFL. Vance Joseph now replaces Ejiro Evero as coordinator. In four seasons with the Cardinals, Joseph produced two top-10 defenses, and this Broncos group has more talent than Joseph had in Arizona.
Patrick Surtain II might be the best corner in the NFL, and no credible list should have him lower than third at the position. The Broncos have mostly veterans—headlined by safety Justin Simmons—around Surtain to form a smart and capable secondary. The questions with Denver are up front, where there’s some talent, but it’s thin. The Broncos signed defensive tackle Zach Allen and edge rusher Frank Clark to add to a group that includes defensive tackle D.J. Jones and edge rusher Randy Gregory. But the pass-rush unit lacks depth.
Joseph’s history suggests that we should expect an aggressive, blitzing defense, and I think this defense will be able to cover well enough to support that vision.
14. Tennessee Titans
The Titans defense had the worst injury luck in the NFL last season and still finished 19th in DVOA. Tennessee has a ferocious defensive front that plays with physicality and violence. The team brings back standouts like defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and edge defender Denico Autry and signed versatile defensive lineman Arden Key. It should also help that edge defender Harold Landry returns after having missed last season due to injury.
The Titans will count on that front to cover up weakness in the secondary. Their young corners are a big question mark, though safety Kevin Byard continues to be a playmaker in the back end.
If I felt better about the corners, I’d consider going all in on the Titans as a top-10 defense. Still, even with the question marks in the secondary, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee outperforms this projection.
15. Washington Commanders
Which Commanders defense will we see in 2023: the one that ranked ninth last season or the one that ranked 27th in 2021? I think the most likely scenario is that they’ll land somewhere in between.
This was a legitimately good group last season. The Commanders led the NFL in defensive success rate, and that was despite the 10th-hardest schedule of opposing offenses. It all starts up front with defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, along with edge defender Montez Sweat. Chase Young played in just three games last season, but if he can stay healthy, the defense has a great chance of outperforming this projection.
My concern is that the talent behind the defensive line is underwhelming. One factor working in the Commanders’ favor: They weren’t overly reliant on turnovers last season. In fact, only three defenses gained a lower EPA on turnovers than Washington. If they can make it to league average there, the defense will get an obvious boost.
This isn’t the flashiest group, but the Commanders have fielded a top-10 defense in two of the past three seasons. I think they have a good shot to be around that range once again.
16. Philadelphia Eagles
A number of factors point to regression here. One, the Eagles had tremendous injury luck last year, and all 11 starters were healthy for the Super Bowl. Two, they faced the second-easiest slate of opposing offenses in 2022. Three, they were fourth in EPA on turnovers, which is something they can’t count on in 2023. And four, they sacked opponents on 11.2 percent of their pass attempts, which was the highest rate for any team since 2000. Again, that’s unlikely to repeat.
Talk to any self-respecting Eagles fan, and they’ll tell you they never fully trusted the defense during the Jonathan Gannon era. The overall numbers last season were great, but any time the Eagles went up against a great quarterback (as in the Super Bowl against Patrick Mahomes), they looked overmatched. With Gannon in Arizona, the Eagles now hand the defense over to Sean Desai.
The two-deep depth chart up front is as good as any in the NFL. At edge, the Eagles have three players—Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham—who each had double-digit sacks a year ago, and they added first-round pick Nolan Smith. At defensive tackle, they lost veteran Javon Hargrave and will need second-year player Jordan Davis or rookie Jalen Carter to step up.
Linebacker and safety are obvious question marks, but don’t sleep on corner as a concern. Darius Slay and James Bradberry were terrific last year, but they’re both in their 30s. In the NFL last year, 50 cornerbacks logged at least 500 snaps on the outside, and just three of them—Slay, Patrick Peterson, and Stephon Gilmore—were 30 or older. Whether because of declining play from those veterans or because of injuries, corner is a position where the Eagles likely won’t be as strong as last year.
In the end, Desai will be judged by whether he can find the answers against top-tier quarterbacks that Gannon couldn’t.
17. Kansas City Chiefs
The way the Chiefs are built around Mahomes, they just need their defense to be competent to be in position to win the Super Bowl. And this group, directed by veteran defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, should easily clear that bar.
Defensive tackle Chris Jones, currently holding out for a new contract, is one of the NFL’s most disruptive linemen, and edge defender George Karlaftis is coming off a promising rookie season. The Chiefs are good at linebacker with Nick Bolton and Willie Gay, and deep at corner with a number of young players who gained valuable experience last year.
The Chiefs finished 17th in defensive DVOA in 2022, when they had six different rookies play at least 250 defensive snaps. There’s significant upside with this group, especially if those young players improve. But I’ve got them at around the same level as last season. This ranking assumes that Jones will be back early in the season. If he’s not, I think I’d drop the Chiefs six to eight spots. Jones is that much of a difference maker.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
An underrated group last season, the Bengals ranked eighth in defensive DVOA if we include their playoff games. And the numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Defense in this era is about being able to come up with one-off game plans against the league’s best quarterbacks. In 2021, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo came up with wrinkles to slow down Mahomes in the Bengals’ AFC championship game win against the Chiefs. Last year, on the road in January, the Bengals held Josh Allen and the Bills to one touchdown. So this defense has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Then why don’t I have it ranked higher? It’s experienced significant turnover in the secondary after losing three starters—corner Eli Apple and safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell—from last year’s team. Bates and Bell in particular were outstanding in Anarumo’s scheme, and it’d be a stunner if the Bengals didn’t experience at least some drop-off at safety, where they’re now counting on second-year player Dax Hill and veteran Nick Scott. At corner, Chidobe Awuzie returns from injury to replace Apple.
The Bengals’ strength is up front, with edge defender Trey Hendrickson and defensive tackle D.J. Reader leading a physical group. Logan Wilson is an excellent off-ball linebacker, and Germaine Pratt is a fine complement. It’s a feisty and reliable front seven.
From a pure talent perspective, this is a solid, but unspectacular, group. Much of its success will come down to the contributions it gets from young players like Hill, second-year corner Cam Taylor-Britt, rookie edge defender Myles Murphy, and rookie corner DJ Turner. Given the inexperience at some key spots, I could see the Bengals struggling early in the season, but I trust Anarumo to eventually figure it out.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
This was an average group (16th in DVOA) last season, and the personnel in 2023 isn’t all that different. Getting Joey Bosa, who played in just five games last season, back healthy and lining him up opposite Khalil Mack should give the Chargers a boost. The team signed veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks, and in the secondary, it’s hoping that cornerback J.C. Jackson can return from last year’s season-ending patellar injury and be effective.
There are some intriguing pieces here. Assuming that Jackson returns, the Chargers have good depth at corner. And safety Derwin James is one of the NFL’s most versatile players. But in the end, I need to see it to believe it. Head coach Brandon Staley has cooked up some impressive one-off game plans in the past—go back and watch what the Chargers did to shut down Miami last season—but overall, this group has been mediocre or below average under his direction. I’m unconvinced that the Chargers defense will make a leap in 2023.
20. Seattle Seahawks
After one of the great defensive runs in recent history from 2012 to 2016, the Seahawks have been stuck in mediocrity. They were 21st in defensive DVOA last year and have finished between 16th and 21st for five straight seasons.
They upgraded personnel in the offseason, signing defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones and drafting cornerback Devon Witherspoon with the fifth pick. But rookie cornerback play can be volatile. Seattle also brought back veteran middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, who spent last season with the Rams, and signed safety Julian Love.
The pass rush should be solid, and the secondary has a chance to be really good. I like the chances of this group improving from last season. I just don’t know that they’ll make a big leap to get into the top tier of defenses.
21. Houston Texans
The Texans stank last year, but the defense wasn’t that bad, finishing 22nd in DVOA. Houston has some young blue-chip talent in rookie edge defender Will Anderson Jr. and 2022 first-round cornerback Derek Stingley. The team added veterans like defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and safety Jimmie Ward in free agency.
Overall, it’s not the most talented unit, but it’s a solid group. And new head coach DeMeco Ryans was an excellent coordinator with the 49ers. He was working with more talent there, but Ryans showed he could coach around weak spots when the 49ers got crushed with injuries. That experience should help him here.
22. Green Bay Packers
This group has underachieved, given its talent level, in each of the past two seasons—finishing 20th in DVOA last year and 22nd in 2021. Usually when that happens, the head coach makes a move at defensive coordinator. But Matt LaFleur is giving Joe Barry another chance to right the ship.
He has plenty of talent to work with. The Packers were ninth against the pass last year and are bringing back starting corners Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas. Defensive lineman Rashan Gary was playing at a high level but missed the final eight games due to a season-ending injury. He’ll be back in the mix for 2023. The Packers are counting on second-year defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt to boost a run defense that ranked 31st in DVOA last season. If Wyatt plays well, this could be a much-improved unit.
But it’s also possible that the Packers will take a step back and be even worse in 2023. They had the fifth-healthiest defense last year. If that regresses to league average, their depth will be tested more. The Packers defense ranked sixth in EPA on takeaways. It’d be no surprise to see them regress at least a little there too.
Add it all up, and I see a defense that is most likely to be mediocre once again.
23. Detroit Lions
The Lions defense was bad last season, ranking 28th in DVOA. The Lions reshaped their secondary, signing corners Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in the offseason, along with hybrid defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Lions also used a second-round pick on slot corner and safety Brian Branch.
Up front, the Lions are counting on two things to work out. One is for second-year defensive end Aidan Hutchinson to become an elite rusher. Hutchinson had a strong rookie season, with 9.5 sacks and 15 QB hits. Two, the Lions are hoping to stay healthier. Defensive linemen like Romeo Okwara and Charles Harris missed significant time last season.
The Lions have enough talent to produce a strong pass rush, and the secondary should at least be improved. I don’t think this defense will be great, but I think it will at least make the leap from bad to competent.
24. New York Giants
This was a bad defense (29th in DVOA) last year, but it was also an unlucky defense. Only two defenses had worse injury issues than the Giants. And they ranked 27th in turnover EPA. If they can stay a little healthier and move more toward league average with takeaways, the defense will be better.
In terms of personnel, the Giants signed linebacker Bobby Okereke and drafted corner Deonte Banks in the first round. Other than those two players, it’s mostly the same group as last year. Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence was dominant in 2022, and the Giants can hope that edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux makes a second-year leap.
From a scheme perspective, we know how defensive coordinator Wink Martindale wants to play. No other defense played man coverage at a higher rate than the Giants. And no other team blitzed more. That’s what’s in Martindale’s DNA.
There’s reason to believe this group can be better in 2023. They have a second year in Martindale’s scheme. The personnel is at least a little better. And they should get a little luckier. But the ceiling of the Giants’ defense still feels capped at mediocrity, given the relative lack of overall talent.
25. Minnesota Vikings
I don’t want to bet against new defensive coordinator Brian Flores considering his track record of defensive success, but given this group’s lack of talent, I just can’t put them any higher than this. The Vikings’ defense is undergoing a significant makeover. Among the 12 players who logged 400-plus snaps for them last year, six are gone: CB Patrick Peterson, LB Eric Kendricks, CB Chandon Sullivan, edge Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, and CB Cameron Dantzler. The big additions were defensive lineman Marcus Davenport and corner Byron Murphy Jr.
The Vikings last year played a passive, bend-but-don’t-break style under former coordinator Ed Donatell. If history is any indication, Flores will swing them in the opposite direction with an in-your-face approach that favors man coverage and creative pressure schemes. In the long run, this change will be a good thing. But if we’re talking about just this year, with the players they currently have, it could be rough.
Up front, the only sure thing is edge rusher Danielle Hunter. Linebacker is a question. And cornerback looks like one of the weakest areas of the roster. I’m not discounting Flores’s ability to do more with less, but he might need to work miracles just to get this defense to mediocrity.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
There’s a pile of statistical evidence to suggest that this defense is going to be bad. The Jaguars were 26th in defensive DVOA last season, and that was with a lot of “luck” factors going their way. They had the second-best injury luck on defense. Only four teams benefited more from takeaways, based on EPA. And they faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
The Jaguars didn’t make any big moves on defense in the offseason, so they’re mostly running it back with the same roster and the same coordinator in Mike Caldwell.
So what’s the case for them improving? The Jaguars have some talented, young players like corner Tyson Campbell, edge defender Travon Walker (the top pick in the 2022 draft), and linebacker Devin Lloyd. If those guys make significant improvements, this defense will look a lot different.
I don’t trust this group but will acknowledge there’s a fair degree of variance here, and they could outperform this ranking.
27. Atlanta Falcons
After a disastrous 2022 (30th in defensive DVOA), the Falcons made big changes to this unit in the offseason. First-time defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen replaced Dean Pees, and the Falcons made a big splash in free agency by signing former Bengals safety Jessie Bates III.
This pass rush was a mess last season, producing sacks at the lowest rate (3.6 percent) in the NFL. The Falcons’ solution to that issue was to add three veterans who are 30 or older in Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, and Bud Dupree. The coverage has to hold up to allow those pass rushers to get home, and that could be an issue. At corner, it’s A.J. Terrell and then a bunch of question marks.
Only two teams benefited less from EPA on turnovers than the Falcons last season. Just getting closer to league average on takeaways should go a long way toward giving this defense a boost. I don’t think we’ll see a huge leap.
28. Chicago Bears
After finishing last season with the worst defense in the NFL, the Bears went on a spending spree, adding linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, along with pass rushers DeMarcus Walker and Yannick Ngakoue.
The Bears sacked opposing quarterbacks just 4 percent of the time last year—the second-worst rate in the NFL, ahead of only the Falcons. Safety Jaquan Brisker led the team in sacks with four—that’s not ideal! Walker is on his fourth team in four seasons. Ngakoue consistently puts up impressive sack numbers, but this is his sixth team since 2019. In other words, the pass rush should be better, but it’s still looking like one of the worst in the NFL.
Elsewhere, the Bears have some defensive talent. The investment at linebacker should pay off. Jaylon Johnson is a nice piece at corner, but the rest of that group is unproven. Safety Jaquan Brisker is coming off of a promising rookie season.
The biggest reason to believe in improvement here is the schedule. The defense faced the second-hardest schedule of opposing offenses last year. This year, only five teams have an easier overall projected schedule than Chicago. I see an improved unit, but a below-average one.
29. Indianapolis Colts
This was a mediocre group last season, but the Colts lost some key pieces in the offseason, like cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Bobby Okereke.
Indy’s front seven has talent, with guys like defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, along with defensive end Kwity Paye. The issues are on the back end where the Colts, on paper at least, have one of the league’s worst cornerback groups. They were already thin, and then Isaiah Rodgers, who was a projected starter, got suspended for the season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy.
The swing player for this defense is linebacker Shaquille Leonard. When he’s on the field, Leonard is one of the most impactful linebackers in the NFL. But he appeared in just three games last season and has endured horrible injury issues throughout his career, including multiple back injuries that required surgeries, a concussion, and an ankle issue. Reports out of Colts camp this summer have been positive, and if Leonard can stay on the field, suddenly this front seven could be good enough to keep the secondary afloat.
But given how thin the Colts are, and taking into account the likely issues they’re going to have in coverage, I don’t feel great about this defense.
30. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ philosophy here was to add a bunch of young players and hope that some hit. We’re talking about nearly unprecedented turnover with this group. Among the 10 players who logged 400-plus snaps for the Rams last season, just three—DT Aaron Donald, LB Ernest Jones, CB Derion Kendrick—are back. Gone are: LB Bobby Wagner, CB Jalen Ramsey, safety Nick Scott, safety Taylor Rapp, edge defender Leonard Floyd, DT Greg Gaines, and CB Troy Hill.
Up front for the Rams in 2023, it’s Donald and a bunch of question marks. In the secondary, the Rams have some veterans like CB Ahkello Witherspoon and safety Jordan Fuller. But still, it’s a largely unproven group.
Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris did a good job with this defense last year as the Rams finished 18th in DVOA. If he gets them close to that level in 2023 with this many roster changes, he’ll either have worked a miracle, or the Rams will have discovered a bunch of young players whom they can build with going forward.
31. Las Vegas Raiders
Maxx Crosby is one of the five best edge rushers in the NFL. But other than him, there’s almost nothing to like about this defense. The Raiders finished 31st in defensive DVOA last year. They’ve finished 28th or worse in five of the past six seasons.
The Raiders used the seventh pick on edge defender Tyree Wilson. Maybe he’ll be an impact player right away, but that usually doesn’t happen with rookie pass rushers. Chandler Jones is 33 and was a major disappointment last year, totaling just 4.5 sacks after signing a splashy new deal in Vegas. The Raiders have questions at defensive tackle and linebacker, and their corner group (even with the late offseason addition of Marcus Peters) is one of the worst in the league.
If the Raiders don’t finish as a bottom-10 defense, coordinator Patrick Graham should demand a raise. This unit is just short on talent.
32. Arizona Cardinals
This group doesn’t require a whole lot of analysis. The Cardinals have the worst defensive roster in the NFL. They’re going to struggle to rush the passer, and they’re going to struggle to cover. Generally speaking, that’s a bad combination.
New head coach Jonathan Gannon showed no ability to do more with less in Philadelphia. When the roster was loaded and healthy, the Eagles defense feasted on a weak schedule. When they faced good quarterbacks, Gannon consistently looked overmatched.
Barring something shocking, the only time to pay attention to the Cardinals’ defense will be when you or your opponent have fantasy guys going against them.
