The Best Fantasy Football Pick in Every Round
Every manager needs a plan for the draft. Here are the players you should be targeting every step of the way.
Fantasy football drafts are unpredictable, and it’s impossible to perfectly plan your team. But it’s still a good strategy to have some top targets in mind at different spots in the draft so that you can get “your guys” every time your pick comes back around. Using the FantasyPros average draft position list for half-PPR scoring, here are a few of my favorite fantasy picks in every round.
First Round (Picks 1-12)
The Pick: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP TE1, Sixth Overall)
Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (RB5, 10th Overall)
Kelce can potentially give your fantasy team a massive positional edge. The pass-catching playmaker scored more fantasy points than all but four receivers last year and finished with nearly 100 more points than the no. 2 tight end in overall half-PPR scoring (with 261.3 points to T.J. Hockenson’s 172.4 points). Kelce averaged a full four points per game more than the no. 2 tight end (15.4 points per game, compared with George Kittle’s 11.4 points per game), and if that type of dominance holds true in 2023, he’ll give your team a big boost even if you’re facing a handful of elite tight ends in your league. For that reason, I’ll be aggressive in targeting the 33-year-old, who has finished as the TE1, TE2, TE1, TE1, TE1, TE2, and TE1 over the past seven seasons and has shown few signs of slowing down.
Second Round (13-24)
The Pick: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (RB7, 15th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (WR8, 18th Overall)
Pollard is an explosive, big-play runner who finished as the overall RB7 last year (229.3 half-PPR points), averaging an impressive 14.3 points per game (eighth) despite touching the ball just 14.5 times per outing (26th). The lion’s share of the work went to nominal starter Ezekiel Elliott, who gobbled up 231 carries and scored 12 touchdowns. Now, with Elliott off to New England, it’s certainly titillating to wonder what Pollard can do with lead-back duties. It’s unlikely that he will ever be a Zeke-like 350-plus-touch player, but if he can push his role to roughly 18 or 19 touches per game (which is about what Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler averaged last year), he could bring true overall RB1 potential.
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Third Round (25-36)
The Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (RB14, 33rd Overall)
Honorable Mention: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (RB12, 30th Overall)
History tells us that the Lions will use Gibbs very heavily right away. Before the 2023 NFL draft, a total of 16 running backs had been taken inside the top 12 over the past 20 years (this year, Bijan Robinson and Gibbs were added to that list). Those 16 backs have averaged 17.1 touches per game as rookies—with just two (C.J. Spiller and Cedric Benson) averaging fewer than 10 touches per contest. Spiller, who was also a satellite back in Gibbs’s mold, represents the bear-case scenario for Gibbs—and if that’s how the Lions play this thing out, the whole coaching staff should probably be fired. The rookie running back’s two bull-case stylistic comps on that list, however, are pretty intriguing: McCaffrey (who caught 80 passes and finished as the RB11 in half-PPR in 2017) and Reggie Bush (who caught 88 passes and finished as the RB10 in 2006). I’m not saying that Gibbs is as talented as CMC or Bush, but I’ll bet that Detroit sees its new playmaker in that mold—and will use him accordingly. He brings RB1 upside in half-PPR and PPR formats, and I’m looking for that potential in the third round.
Fourth Round (37-48)
The Pick: Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR16, 36th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (WR19, 44th Overall)
Ridley has played in just five games since the start of the 2021 season and didn’t play at all last year as he served a gambling-related suspension. That makes it a little bit scary to hit that “draft” button next to his name when you’re on the clock in the fourth round. But everything we’ve heard about Ridley from the Jaguars camp has been positive (and he’s looked fantastic in his limited preseason action), so I’m willing to predict that the connection he’s developed with Trevor Lawrence will translate to fantasy gold. Jacksonville quietly ranked in the top 10 in scoring last year, and Lawrence ranked seventh in pass attempts—meaning there’s some big-time ceiling there if Ridley does what I expect and establishes himself as the go-to guy from day one.
Fifth Round (49-60)
The Pick: DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (WR22, 55th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, New York Giants (TE5, 57th Overall)
Hopkins is an elite target earner, averaging at least nine per game in seven of his past eight seasons, with the only real outlier being his 2021 campaign (when he averaged just 6.4 targets per game in 10 outings). He returned to his usual form last year, developing a strong connection with Kyler Murray and averaging a whopping 10.7 targets per game in nine contests—good for third among all wide receivers (trailing only Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp). Yeah, Hopkins is 31. And yeah, he’s on a new team and catching passes from a new quarterback. But I’m taking the steep discount those two factors have created for Hopkins because I think Ryan Tannehill will feed his new, always reliable playmaker—even if he’s tightly covered downfield.
Sixth Round (61-72)
The Pick: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (RB26, 69th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (WR25, 64th Overall)
Coming off his worst season as a pro and facing a three-game suspension to start the year, Kamara has dropped all the way into the sixth round. I’m happy to stop his fall when I get the opportunity. The three games he’ll miss early on will sting a bit, sure, but the veteran back should still get plenty of opportunities in New Orleans’s backfield (he ranked ninth among running backs in touches per game last year, with 18.7 per contest). Kamara finished as the RB17 in points per game (half-PPR) last year, and he did that despite catching just 57 passes. With reports out of camp indicating he’s got his signature burst back after looking sluggish at times last season, I’m banking on a bounce-back year for the veteran playmaker—and hoping New Orleans will get back to making him a featured part of the passing game. If he can return to anything close to his previous form, he’ll be a fantasy steal.
Seventh Round (73-84)
The Pick: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR34, 80th Overall)
Honorable Mention: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR34, 80th Overall)
There isn’t a player in football who screams positive regression more than Johnson. The Steelers playmaker set a new record last year for most targets (147—sixth most among receivers) without a touchdown. And Johnson’s improbable end zone dry spell wasn’t for Pittsburgh’s lack of trying: The wily pass catcher ranked sixth in end zone targets (14). I’ll be betting that Johnson—who’s an excellent route runner and top-tier separator—will see his luck change significantly in that specific area this season, especially if quarterback Kenny Pickett makes a big second-year jump.
Eighth Round (85-96)
The Pick: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (WR36, 88th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (WR37, 90th Overall)
Dotson got off to a red-hot start as a rookie last year, catching four touchdowns over his first four games, but a hamstring injury robbed him of the next five games. The team eased him back in once he returned to the field (playing a rotational role in three games) before letting him loose to finish the year. Over his last five games of the season (all games in which he played 74 percent or more snaps), Dotson caught 21 passes for 344 yards and three scores, averaging 12.6 half-PPR points per game—which ranked 15th among all receivers in that stretch. Dotson has been tearing up the preseason and seems to have developed a strong rapport with new quarterback Sam Howell. There’s a world in which Dotson ends up outscoring Terry McLaurin this year—making him easily worth betting on this late in the draft.
Ninth Round (97-108)
The Pick: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (QB15, 110th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys (RB40, 97th Overall)
Quarterbacks who run are a cheat code in fantasy football, and that’s been clear for a few years now. That’s why three of the top four highest-drafted quarterbacks—Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson—are dual-threat signal-callers (with the other being Patrick Mahomes). It’s also why Justin Fields, who was terrible by just about every metric as a passer last year but rushed for over 1,000 yards, is the QB7 per ADP. Rushing yards are worth more than passing yards and rushing touchdowns are worth more than passing touchdowns in most standard fantasy scoring settings—and while it wouldn’t be surprising to see Richardson struggle as a passer, I’m pretty sure that the über-athletic and extraordinarily big rookie will run a lot this year. If head coach Shane Steichen uses Richardson in his goal-line and deep red zone rush packages (as his former team did with Hurts the past two seasons), he’ll bring elite upside in fantasy.
10th Round (109-120)
The Pick: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (WR44, 112th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (QB16, 115th Overall)
If the Ravens really do make a radical shift from the past few seasons and adopt a high-tempo, spread-out offense under Todd Monken, there’ll be fantasy gold to be found in the passing game. Flowers still has to prove that he can establish himself as one of Jackson’s favorite targets, but at Boston College the first-rounder showed that he can be an explosive playmaker and challenge a defense at all three levels. With the hierarchy in the Baltimore passing attack relatively uncertain after tight end Mark Andrews, Flowers will have the opportunity to earn a high-volume role from the get-go. He’s worth a flier in the 10th round.
11th Round (121-132)
The Pick: Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (WR49, 121st Overall)
Honorable Mention: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (TE11, 125th Overall)
Moore didn’t do a whole lot as a rookie, but the second-rounder steps into an incredible opportunity in 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman were responsible for 135 targets in last year’s offense, and it seems unlikely that a veteran like Marquez Valdes-Scantling will make a dramatic jump at age 28 (plus, Kadarius Toney is seemingly always hurt). Moore could emerge as Mahomes’s de facto no. 2 option behind Kelce, and in an offense that led all teams in passing yards and points last year, he brings a high ceiling.
12th Round (133-144)
The Pick: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (RB46, 139th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (RB45, 134th Overall)
Warren is an explosive playmaker and dangerous pass catcher who continues to show the Steelers coaching staff that he shouldn’t be left on the sideline. He’s made big play after big play this preseason and has been awarded with more snaps with the first-team offense than expected. If that rotational role alongside Najee Harris carries over into the regular season, Warren could offer sneaky stand-alone value as a flex option. And, of course, he is one of the top handcuff running backs, offering league-winning upside if Harris were to go down.
13th Round (145-156)
The Pick: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (WR55, 149th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (TE16, 152nd Overall)
You won’t get anything from Williams over the first six weeks of the season as he serves a gambling-related suspension, but I like grabbing him late in drafts with the idea that he could provide a massive boost down the stretch. Williams missed most of his rookie season recovering from an ACL tear, and now that he’s suspended, the vibes around him are admittedly pretty bad. But he’s still a guy who was talented enough to go 12th overall in the draft—and it’s not hard to imagine a late-season explosion similar to the one we saw from Christian Watson last year. Williams is a big-play creator with elite speed and, crucially, will be playing in a Lions offense that lacks a true field-stretching presence. This is an even easier call if your league allows suspended players to be placed on the IR.
14th Round (157-168)
The Pick: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (TE17, 162nd Overall)
Honorable Mention: Nico Collins, Houston Texans (WR59, 164th Overall)
After putting together a terrific training camp, LaPorta looks set to start for the Lions from day one. An athletic and versatile tight end who can line up and run routes from anywhere on the field, the rookie out of Iowa has a shot to be a featured part of the Detroit passing game early on. It’s pretty rare to see tight ends contribute in their first season, but LaPorta has a real chance to emerge as the de facto no. 2 option for Jared Goff—and that’d make him an incredible value add late in your draft.
15th Round (169-180)
The Pick: Sam Howell, Washington Commanders (QB28, 196th Overall)
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (QB29, 197th Overall)
Howell is an intriguing late-round target thanks to his dual-threat skill set. The second-year pro impressed as a passer in the preseason, spreading the ball out to the team’s talented skill players, but he offers some hidden fantasy upside thanks to his ability to run with the ball. Howell rushed for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns in his final season at North Carolina—so while he’s not the same level of athlete as Hurts, Jackson, Fields, or Richardson, he’s proved that he’s fast enough to make a defense pay when they lose contain.
The Haul
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
FLX: RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
BN: WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
BN: WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
BN: WR Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs
BN: RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
BN: WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
BN: TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
BN: QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
