We’re back! Time for another season of NFL picks against the spread. For those who are new here, this is where I pick every single game and try not to embarrass myself. We’ll start with Thursday night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions and finish with Super Bowl LVIII in Vegas.
Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday night. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Last season’s record: 146-131-7
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
The Chiefs seem very interested in testing the limits of the “Does anything else matter when you have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid?” theory. Going into the summer, we already knew they would be starting a pair of new offensive tackles, and they lost their leading wide receiver from 2022 (JuJu Smith-Schuster) in free agency. As of Wednesday night, their best defensive player, Chris Jones, continues to hold out. And during Tuesday’s practice, tight end Travis Kelce suffered a knee injury, and his official status for this game is questionable.
There are plenty of reasons to think the Lions can cover and even win this game. Their offense was legitimately good last year. Their offensive line should dominate. And their defense should be much better than it was a year ago. I picked the Lions to win the NFC North.
But you won’t get me to fall for the trap here. Reid thrives when he has extra time to prepare. His teams consistently overachieve when they’re shorthanded. And Mahomes is über-competitive. When you’ve won MVPs and Super Bowls, you’ll look anywhere for motivation. Surely Mahomes can easily tell himself: “People actually think the Lions will beat us just because 87 is out or limited?”
I think we’ll get an A+ version of Mahomes here in a high-scoring, competitive, I’m-not-going-anywhere-type game. If it’s close late in the fourth quarter, I trust the Chiefs to find a way to get into the end zone.
The pick: Chiefs (-5.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
The 49ers go into the 2023 season as one of the NFL’s most interesting teams. They’re putting all their eggs in the Brock Purdy basket, even though he has just eight career starts. I’m open to all possibilities with Purdy. He could put up Jimmy Garoppolo–like efficiency numbers in this offense, given the strong supporting cast and Kyle Shanahan’s knack for helping quarterbacks succeed. You could also tell me he’ll have a bumpy season and look completely different from the guy we saw last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Drawing definitive conclusions from small samples is hard!
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But I’m refusing to buy any and all Sam Darnold hype. Maybe Shanahan can get something out of him, but that’s far from the most likely outcome. Since 2018, 38 quarterbacks have had at least 1,000 dropbacks. Among that group, Darnold ranks last in both success rate and EPA per pass play. Shanahan is a great coach. He is not a miracle worker. This team needs Purdy to stay healthy and play well.
As for the Steelers, I’ve got them as a playoff team this season. Their defensive front will be one of the NFL’s best, and second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett really improved down the stretch last season.
Nothing would surprise me in this game, but I generally ride with Mike Tomlin in an underdog role. He is 13-4-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his career. I like Pittsburgh here.
The pick: Steelers (+2.5)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
True story: I just Googled “predicts Panthers to win NFC South” to see if anyone else on this planet is on board with me. Nope! Only two results showed up, and neither was from this year. I’m starting to think this prediction might not go great for me.
Those who listen to Extra Point Taken (coming to you twice a week this season!) know that I think the Football Hipster Society is way too high on this Falcons team. I also think this Panthers defense is talented and underrated.
Am I concerned that the entire Panthers wide receiver room is on the injury report? Umm … yes. Is there a scenario in which Falcons first-round pick Bijan Robinson runs for 200 yards in his first game, Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young gets sacked seven times, and everyone calls me a moron? Of course. But I can’t give up now! The season hasn’t even started yet. Panthers keep it close.
The pick: Panthers (+3.5)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
I can’t wait to see what this Ravens offense will look like with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and actual NFL wide receivers for Lamar Jackson to throw to. My general expectation is that it will work … eventually. But I think it could be a bit of a roller coaster in the first half of the season. The changes we’re talking about here are dramatic.
I would not be surprised if the Texans defense showed up in this game and gave the Ravens problems. Houston was competent defensively last year, and I’m a big believer in new head coach DeMeco Ryans, who was a stellar defensive play caller in San Francisco. But will the Texans be able to score enough to cover? Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will throw a lot at Houston’s rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud, and the Texans offense just doesn’t have a lot of playmakers. Plus, Houston is banged up on the offensive line. I think the Ravens will get a score on defense or special teams to cover in what will be a relatively competitive game.
The pick: Ravens (-10)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
The Bengals played 19 games last year, including the postseason. The only one they lost by more than a field goal was a Week 8 matchup with the Browns (32-13). Cleveland had 440 yards of offense and 24 first downs with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in that game.
It’s reasonable to project that Deshaun Watson will perform better than he did in his six games last year. This will be his age-28 season, and he’s been a good quarterback before. But it’s also reasonable to point out that the last time we saw Watson play well was three years ago. I don’t think I trust the Browns to handle the pressure that comes with trading for Watson and signing him to a massive, fully guaranteed contract.
Defensively, I think the Browns will be the most improved unit in the NFL, and they could give the Bengals problems here. I’ve got the Bengals winning the Super Bowl, but they might get off to a slow start, given that Joe Burrow is coming off of a calf injury. I’ll take the home dogs here.
The pick: Browns (+2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
This feels like a game where we’ll overreact one way or another.
Vikings win: Where’s that regression now, losers? This team just knows how to win. Jordan Addison’s an upgrade from Adam Thielen. Brian Flores gives them juice as defensive coordinator. Don’t sleep on this team to win the NFC North again!
Bucs win: Are they the team everyone thought the Falcons would be? They still have talent on defense. Baker Mayfield quarterbacked a playoff team before. … Nine wins will take the NFC South, right? Why can’t Tampa get there?
I buy into some of those takes. I think the Vikings will be a competitive team. I think their offense will be better than last year. And I am curious to see what Flores cooks up with an undermanned defense. As for the Buccaneers, they still have a lot of good players, even though the quarterback situation is terrifying.
Sometimes these picks come down to: What will I regret less if I’m wrong? And I just can’t bring myself to take Mayfield on the road here.
The pick: Vikings (-6)
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-7)
I have a general rule in Week 1: If there is a team that everyone agrees will be terrible, take that team against the spread. Well, I think I have to break my own rule this year. Pretty much everyone agrees that the Cardinals will be one of the NFL’s worst teams. You can’t go two days without seeing a new unflattering clip or story about head coach Jonathan Gannon. Arizona just traded for quarterback Joshua Dobbs a couple of weeks ago, and now he’s starting. Plus, their defense will stink.
I don’t have the Commanders as a playoff team, but they at least have a bunch of professional players, and the vibes at FedEx Field for the first game of the post–Dan Snyder era will be good. Sam Howell and Ron Rivera to cover a seven-point spread? Honestly, I feel great about it.
The pick: Commanders (-7)
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Here’s a thing I just found out: Jimmy Graham is on the Saints’ 53-man roster. Seriously! Yes, that Jimmy Graham. The 36-year-old former Saint/Seahawk/Packer/Bear was out of the NFL last year. He had 14 catches for 167 yards with the Bears in 2021. I have no idea what is going on here. But when you’re old like me, you tend to root for all the older guys. Let’s go, Jimmy!
As for the Titans, I don’t think they’re a great team, but I think they’ll be feisty and competitive. Their defensive front should be able to get to new Saints quarterback Derek Carr, and we know that Carr will make mistakes when pressured. I’m giving Mike Vrabel a huge edge in the coaching matchup over Dennis Allen. Give me the points.
The pick: Titans (+3)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+4.5)
Just an incredible 10-month run for Colts owner Jim Irsay. Dictating quarterback decisions during the season. Replacing Frank Reich with Jeff Saturday and mocking anyone who questioned the move. Holding meetings on his luxury bus. Posting social media videos while waiting to board his private jet. Alienating star running back Jonathan Taylor. It’s not easy to pack all of that into such a short span.
There’s a chance Indy’s rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, will become the story in Week 1. We have no idea what this Colts offense will look like, but there’s no denying his talent and athleticism. If Richardson can use his legs and create some plays outside of structure, the Colts have a chance to steal this one. But I tend to think he’ll face a steep learning curve.
I’m excited about this Jaguars team and think they can make a big leap with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. I’m not sold on their defense, but Jacksonville at least has young, talented players who could theoretically improve.
The pick: Jaguars (-4.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Are we sure that Sean McVay doesn’t already regret his decision to continue coaching? The Rams have holes all over their roster, and wide receiver Cooper Kupp is dealing with a hamstring injury that will force him to miss this game. It’s hard for me to even come up with a scenario in which this team is in the playoff mix in December.
Meanwhile, I have the Seahawks winning the NFC West. Quarterback Geno Smith is in a great spot with a strong supporting cast, and I like the talent in Seattle’s secondary.
This is where I remind myself that it’s Week 1, and weird things will happen. The Rams were depleted last season but still played Seattle tough down the stretch. They’ll at least have Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald for this one. I don’t feel great about it, but I think they’ll keep it close on the road.
The pick: Rams (+5.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (+4)
This matchup will be all about the Patriots’ ability to protect quarterback Mac Jones. Earlier this offseason, New England’s offensive line looked like a strength, but the Patriots were hit with injuries this summer, and suddenly the line looks like a question mark. That could be bad news for a Week 1 matchup against the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush. Bill Belichick will know that going in. Look for the Patriots to try to run the ball, lean on run-pass options, and get the ball out of Jones’s hands quickly. How new Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai counters that game plan could go a long way toward determining the winner.
On the other side of the matchup, it’s strength versus strength. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had a terrific summer and looks poised to produce another MVP-caliber season. The word “blueprint” gets tossed around way too often, but it’ll be interesting to see what Belichick thinks the best strategy is to contain Hurts and this dynamic Eagles offense.
Historically, it’s been risky to pick against Belichick as an underdog, but in the last three seasons (since Tom Brady left), the Patriots are 9-13 against the spread as underdogs. I think we’ll see a competitive game, but I like the Eagles to cover this number.
The pick: Eagles (-4)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-4)
I remember reading a story this offseason in which Josh McDaniels said he wanted to improve his relationships with his players. I thought to myself: He’s been in the league for a long time. Shouldn’t that type of thing have been addressed already?
Now here we are in Week 1, and the biggest story surrounding the Raiders is edge defender Chandler Jones’s absence from the team. Jones said on social media that he doesn’t want to play for McDaniels and that the Raiders wouldn’t let him in the building and were trying to provoke him. I don’t know what’s going on, but it doesn’t sound great!
A year ago, we were eagerly awaiting the debut of Russell Wilson with the Broncos. Denver lost, 17-16, to the Seahawks in Week 1, but I remember thinking: Eh, it’s only one game. Whoops. The Broncos ended up scoring a total of 43 points in the first three games of what was a disastrous season.
I am ready to be hurt again. I think Sean Payton is a great coach. I think Denver is talented enough to be competitive. And I like their defense. I already hate myself for typing the words, but the Broncos will win big here.
The pick: Broncos (-4)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)
Here’s a take I sat on all summer: The Packers are the team everyone thinks the Falcons will be. Unproven quarterback who could be good? Check. Head coach who has earned the benefit of the doubt? Check. Bad division? Check. I picked the Packers to be a wild-card team this season. If they end up being terrible, I will deny that take to my death and scrub this column from the internet.
Chicago’s Justin Fields might have more at stake than any other quarterback this season. The Bears passed on Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson and decided to stick with Fields. If he balls out this year, that’s a great outcome. If he’s a complete disaster, that might be OK too. Chicago has two first-round picks in next year’s draft. The worst result would probably be for Fields to fall somewhere in between those two outcomes, which would force Chicago to make another tough decision next offseason.
As for this game, the Packers injury report at wide receiver has me concerned, but I think they’ll be able to run the ball, and I think they’re the more talented team.
The pick: Packers (+1.5)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
So much of this season for the Dolphins will be about whether head coach Mike McDaniel has a plan B. What he did last year was impressive. But now opposing coaches know what to expect and can come up with ways to stop it. How will McDaniel counter? We should get a good look right away. Brandon Staley’s Chargers got the better of the Dolphins in a 23-17 win late last season. Tua Tagovailoa went 10-for-28 in that game, and Los Angeles did a good job of disrupting the Dolphins’ offensive timing.
On the other side of the ball, we get the debut of the Kellen Moore–led Chargers offense. I would really appreciate a bit where he has Justin Herbert launch the ball 50 yards downfield on the first three snaps just so nobody can complain about Herbert’s average depth of target this season.
These are two talented teams with a lot on the line. This feels like a toss-up game. I’m taking the points.
The pick: Dolphins (+3)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5)
I have completely opposite viewpoints on these two teams going into the 2023 season. I think the Cowboys have a Super Bowl roster, but I don’t trust Mike McCarthy to get the most out of them. I think the Giants have a mediocre roster (at best), but I do trust Brian Daboll to maximize it.
I’m curious to see what this Dallas offense will look like early in the season with McCarthy as the replacement play caller for departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. I’m unconvinced we’ll see an improvement. But defensively, the Cowboys have a chance to be dominant.
The Giants committed to quarterback Daniel Jones in the offseason, but the improvements to the roster were marginal. I think they’ll be a competitive team, but the Giants still aren’t talented enough to make a significant leap. I see a close game here, with a late Cowboys score for the cover.
The pick: Cowboys (-3.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2.5)
I cannot wait for this one. When was the last time Jets fans had real expectations going into a season? 2011? All things considered, the summer went well for them. The offensive line is far from perfect, but Mekhi Becton finally won the right tackle job, and Duane Brown should be able to offer competency at left tackle. Aaron Rodgers looks healthy and comfortable on his new team. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson could be a breakout star. And the defense is loaded.
The Bills seem to be weirdly flying under the radar, even though they’re 37-12 in the past three regular seasons with Josh Allen as their starter. I still have Buffalo winning the AFC East. They are legit Super Bowl contenders. But for this game, I don’t love the matchup for them. Every time the Bills seem to struggle, it’s because the pass protection doesn’t hold up. I think that Allen could be running for his life with the way this Jets team rushes the passer. The Jets hype has to reach a crescendo before it comes crashing down. I think this game is part of the buildup stage.
The pick: Jets (+2.5)
