MLB’s wild-card round is in the books. We may not have gotten any winner-take-all Game 3s, but the divisional series are sure to up the drama—and the stakes. To prepare for this next round, which begins on Saturday, our staff got together to offer their predictions and answer the biggest questions.
We’re in year two of MLB’s best-of-three wild-card format. What do you think?
Ben Lindbergh: More like mild card, am I right? This year’s wild-card sweeps week was a lousy advertisement for the format—no series went to a winner-take-all, and most of the games weren’t great—but I’m still in favor of not kicking teams out of the playoffs after a single loss. However, I’d gladly go back to a single-elimination wild-card round (which was exciting, however hasty) if it meant we could also restore regular-season tiebreaker games.
Katie Baker: I support it. Baseball is a sport built around series, stretches, and multi-game stands! It felt weird and cheap before to suddenly funnel everything into one game; long live the playoff rubber match!
Zach Kram: It would be more exciting if we actually got any Game 3s! The joy of the wild-card round in the 2010s was the immediacy of elimination games right as the playoffs began. But the best-of-three format has given us just one Game 3 out of eight tries (or three Games 3s out of 16 tries, including the 2020 postseason), and for as exciting as some of the individual games and crowds have been, they haven’t had quite the same stakes as their wild-card predecessors.
Bobby Wagner: MLB has swapped its most singular form of edge-of-your-seat entertainment for two things: perceived parity and consumption hours. The stated reason for expanding the playoffs was to give more teams a chance to compete for a World Series. All it’s done in practice is add a suite of new games that the league can sell ads for. It’s yet to produce a good series (only one of the eight series thus far has even gone three games, and that was the torturous Mets-Padres series last year, in which none of the games were particularly exciting or competitive thanks to the Mets being the Mets). That’s not to say it hasn’t been without entertaining moments, like the Phillies scoring six runs in the ninth inning in Game 1 vs. the Cardinals in 2022. Ultimately, I’m ambivalent about it. The format has yet to produce a moment anywhere near as tense as the one-game elimination format produced consistently, but at least I get to sit on my couch and watch several baseball games at once.
Dan Comer: I’m into it. More teams have an opportunity to contend, which means more fans remain engaged with the sport into September. Take the Marlins, for example. In years past, the Miami front office might have traded stars like Sandy Alcantara and Jazz Chisholm Jr. for prospects at the deadline, realizing there was no path toward playoff contention in a talented NL East. Instead, general manager Kim Ng swung deals for Josh Bell and Jake Burger, which catalyzed the clubhouse and led to Miami’s first winning record in a 162-game season since 2009. They may have been swept out of the wild-card round, but there’s finally hope in Miami. A win for fans is a win for baseball.
Alex Stamas: It’s just fine. Since this new format was introduced, just ONE series has gone the distance of three games, with the rest being sweeps. I’d prefer it if MLB brought back the one-game wild-card round for each league. I know teams and players don’t really like having their seasons come down to one game, but it’s an unbelievably entertaining product for the fans.
Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Even setting aside my irritation that two division winners are forced to play in a “wild-card” round, it’s meh. Game 3s have proved surprisingly rare, and the three-game sets don’t have quite the same stakes as a winner-take-all elimination game. I don’t hate it—it’s not as if this format has ruined playoff baseball—but in my view it hasn’t added much, either.
Which division series are you most excited to watch and why?
Baker: Braves-Phillies. The Braves seem to be the favored team on paper, and it will be hard for the Phillies to beat them again in the playoffs after doing so last year on their way to a World Series berth. But when your team has the Vegas Bry-Guys in Bryce Harper and recent grand slammer Bryson Stott, anything’s possible—and that’s before you factor in the good karma that Phillies fans picked up from their supportive treatment of Trea Turner earlier this season.
Lindbergh: Rangers-Orioles. Partly because these are the two teams in the playoff field that have been absent from the postseason the longest—each last qualified in 2016—and partly because they got back to October in such different ways. Baltimore tanked and built back up from within on the cheap; Texas compiled less extreme loss totals and spent heavily in back-to-back winters to accelerate its rebuild. The Rangers’ current roster is tied for having MLB’s fewest homegrown players—though Josh Jung and Evan Carter are two of them—and sports the second-most players acquired via trade or free agency. The Orioles are above average in the former category and tied for the third fewest in the latter, and consequently, their payroll ranks 29th to the Rangers’ eighth. These rosters represent drastically different approaches to team building, but in this case, those disparate roads led to the same series. I’m fascinated to find out which club encounters a division-series stop sign.
Wagner: I fear that saying any answer besides Braves-Phillies might appear too cute. After last year’s surprising upset and a half decade of simmering hatred over the Braves’ dominance of the NL East, it feels like there is legitimate animosity in this series that just won’t exist anywhere else. This series also features the highest concentration of famous baseball players, many of whom have yet to win a ring (Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Nick Castellanos, Spencer Strider, Matt Olson) or, in Ronald Acuña Jr.’s case, were injured while their team won the World Series. I said it at the beginning of the season, and they proved it over 162 games: Atlanta has the best roster in baseball by somewhat of a wide margin. I just think the Phillies might be too high on their own vibes to know that.
Comer: Call me a homer, but it’s Braves-Phillies, a matchup between the sport’s best team and its hottest. Think of all the dingers and boos and death stares coming out of this series. The star power, the strikeouts. What’s the over/under on bench-clearing, not-quite-brawls? 2.5? I’ll take the over. Gotta imagine Acuña’s getting pitched up and in every time he steps to the plate. There’s going to be a constant display of tomfoolery and three true outcomes in what should be a historically great NLDS rematch. I can’t wait.
Kram: My heart says the Philadelphia-Atlanta NLDS rematch; my head says Minnesota-Houston for two reasons. First, I want to see the pitching staff with the majors’ highest strikeout rate battle the Astros’ low-strikeout, high-powered lineup. And second, I want to learn whether there’s a single neutral fan in the entire country who will root for Houston to reach its seventh consecutive ALCS instead of the upstart Twins.
Stamas: It’s gotta be Braves-Phillies. Watching these two lineups go head-to-head for an entire series is going to be an absolute treat. You’ve got offense, plenty of star power, and two of the best postseason atmospheres in baseball. The only negative is that it’s a best of five rather than a best of seven.
Which player is the most important to his team’s chances in this round?
Kram: The Baltimore rotation looked like a potential playoff weakness all year, and that perspective was only magnified when closer Félix Bautista tore his UCL in August, shortening the O’s bullpen. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty—the club’s lone, underwhelming starter acquisition at the trade deadline—struggled so much in Baltimore that he was demoted to the bullpen.
But maybe they don’t need Flaherty after all, because Kyle Bradish finished the season on an absolute tear, ending with the AL’s third-best ERA (2.83) and fifth-best FIP (3.27) among qualified starters. In Bradish’s last 22 starts, dating back to May, he allowed more than three runs just twice, and he’s likely lined up to pitch twice in the ALDS if necessary. Texas looked dominant in its two-game sweep of the Rays, but Bradish could be the key to preventing the Rangers from eliminating another AL East contender.
Comer: Corbin Carroll. He can do everything on a baseball field, and against the Dodgers, he will need to. The Diamondbacks ranked just 18th in the regular season by wRC+, and they have the longest World Series odds of any remaining playoff team. Their top starting pitchers—Zac Gallen and the late-blooming Merrill Kelly—can compete with just about any other one-two punch in this year’s playoffs, but Arizona’s lineup lacks the depth of a true contender. Carroll led the NL with 10 triples and ranked among the top 10 in stolen bases and runs. As the D-backs’ leadoff hitter and one of the most prolific base stealers in baseball, he can shape the direction of the series from its very first pitch.
Lindbergh: Max Scherzer, Rangers. Although one wouldn’t know it from the wild-card round, in which Texas held Tampa Bay to one run over two games, the Rangers have pitching problems. As Dallas Morning News reporter Evan Grant put it, “The Rangers have three healthy starters for a best-of-five series.” Beyond Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, and Dane Dunning, Texas’s best rotation options may be Andrew Heaney and Martín Pérez, each of whom worked mostly out of the bullpen down the stretch. About that bullpen: After the All-Star break, it was the third worst in baseball by FanGraphs WAR, and its depth may be tested in this series.
The odds of passing that test will be a bit better if Scherzer can come back, defying the prognosis that he was “unlikely” to pitch in the postseason after he strained his right teres major muscle in mid-September. It sounds as if Scherzer is on the verge of a return, and he could be added to the ALDS roster if he makes it through a live batting practice session on Friday without any hiccups. You try to tell Mad Max he can’t come back.
Although the 39-year-old Scherzer pitched pretty well for the Rangers in eight starts after the trade deadline, he tends not to go deep into games anymore, and there’s no telling what Texas would get from him after his monthlong absence. But having him absorb any innings, whether as a starter or in relief, could be a boon to this staff. And—as always with Scherzer—it would be entertaining, too.
Baker: Mookie Betts with the Dodgers. This is star season, baby!
Wagner: Jordan Montgomery. As hot as their lineup can get at times, nothing can change the fact that the Rangers are missing three of the five pitchers they would most want to start a playoff game in 2023 due to injury (Jacob deGrom, Scherzer, and Jon Gray). I’m not sure what to make of Eovaldi, who spun a gem in Game 2 of the wild-card series against Tampa Bay, but had a rocky September (especially the second half) after returning from a forearm strain that kept him out all of August. That leaves Montgomery as the lone candidate left to be a steadying force in a Rangers rotation that just needs to keep the Orioles at bay long enough to let Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and the rest of the Rangers lineup take their best shot at Baltimore’s biggest weakness: starting pitching. If Montgomery can turn in multiple quality starts in this series, these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than their records might suggest. If he blows up twice? This series will be very hard to win.
Stamas: Is it against the rules to say all of the Dodgers starting pitchers? L.A. will be leaning on a very thin starting rotation heading into the NLDS. Their high-powered offense should still be enough to get past a familiar foe in Arizona. But if the D-backs can manage to score early, the Dodgers could be forced to put a lot of stress on the bullpen in this series.
Levy-Rubinett: As the Rangers’ best-laid pitching plans have crumbled this season—from injuries to starters deGrom and Scherzer to meltdowns up and down the bullpen—Montgomery has just kept carving. In 67 2/3 innings since Texas acquired him at the trade deadline, he has pitched to a 2.79 ERA, allowing only two total runs over his final four starts. In Game 1 against Tampa Bay, Montgomery fired seven shutout frames to help Texas to a series lead, and now he’s potentially lined up to start Game 2, on Sunday, against Baltimore. For my money, the Rangers have the best offense in the American League, but they’ll need their depleted pitching staff to at least hold its own. If Montgomery can continue throwing like an ace, it will change the entire complexion of this team.
What is your favorite story line of the postseason?
Lindbergh: The same as it was last year: young talent. In October ’22, I wrote an article headlined “The MLB Playoffs Are a Showcase for One of the Best Rookie Classes Ever.” Well, last year’s rookie position players amassed the third-most fWAR ever; this year’s class topped that, vaulting to second most. Division series rosters include the presumptive Rookie of the Year winners, Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson; the third-ranked rookie by fWAR, James Outman; two of the top five rookie pitchers by fWAR (not counting NPB veteran Kodai Senga), Bobby Miller and Grayson Rodriguez; the Twins’ Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner; the Rangers’ aforementioned Josh Jung and Evan Carter; and the Phillies’ Johan Rojas and the Astros’ Yainer Diaz. The sport’s recent arrivals already made their mark in the wild-card round, and the DS may be no different. Baseball’s new blood has rarely been better than this.
Kram: I haven’t been this excited about a Twins team since Billy Heywood was the manager. Minnesota’s already broken its 18-game curse—now how far can a legitimately talented two-way team go?
Wagner: To borrow a phrase from the Press Box podcast: Does the old guy Clayton Kershaw still have it? Kershaw is this generation’s most accomplished pitcher. After we’ve spent a half decade of thinking he’s getting kind of old and realizing he’s still in his prime, he is finally getting kind of old. He will turn 36 before the start of next season, which would be his 17th season pitching, all for the Dodgers. As is usually the case late in the year, there are questions about his health (a lingering shoulder problem) and ability to perform on the biggest stage (a bevy of takes about “Playoff Kershaw”). Candidly, I’m in love with the idea of Kershaw shoving all October to carry a surprisingly hodgepodge Dodgers team to a ring. Hell, maybe he’d even retire on top after that.
Levy-Rubinett: A potential all-Texas American League Championship Series between the Rangers and Astros sounds mighty tasty. These teams, who have never faced each other in the postseason, are poised to battle it out in the AL West for years to come. Like tender brisket, the best rivalries cook slowly over time; let’s get this one started in this year’s ALCS.
Baker: Those young whippersnappers down in Baltimore sure have been a gas. With happy young homegrown talent like Rutschman and Henderson leading the charge, it would be a lot of fun to see dem O’s keep up the magic, hon.
Stamas: The aforementioned Arizona Diamondbacks, because who doesn’t love an underdog? Yes, the Dodgers had their number down the stretch. Yes, L.A.’s offense has been a behemoth. BUT there is a lot of familiarity between these NL West rivals, and Arizona is playing with house money at this point. My team missed the postseason entirely, so I’m rooting for a little bit of chaos. Let’s go D-backs!
Comer: What a special year from the Camden Yards kids. The first Orioles 100-win season in nearly half a century, capped by their first World Series title since the early ’80s? I’m intrigued.
Give me your boldest prediction for the divisional round.
Lindbergh: Trea Turner will get caught stealing. What could be bolder than that?
Kram: No Dodger pitches more than four innings, but L.A. sweeps Arizona anyway.
Comer: The Diamondbacks sweep the Dodgers. How funny would that be?
Wagner: Braves sweep the Phillies. Here is a sentiment that I think has become a little too en vogue among baseball media members and fans: The Phillies and Braves are closer than you think. This just isn’t true! The Braves finished the season 14 games clear of Philadelphia. They had a plus-231 run differential, compared to a plus-81 run differential for the Phillies. They had an .845 OPS as a team, 50 points clear of the second-place Dodgers and 80 points clear of the sixth-place Phillies. The Phillies have a decent advantage when it comes to pitching, especially starting pitching. But the gap between these two teams, facilitated by Atlanta’s offense (one of the best offenses in league history), is sizable. All that might not matter, just as it didn’t last year when these two teams met. But I think a lot of people are carrying last year’s postseason result over into their analysis of a better 2023 Braves team and a similar 2023 Phillies team.
Stamas: The Texas Rangers will knock out the top-seeded Orioles AND the defending champion Astros en route to the AL pennant. I know the Rangers nearly tripped and fell out of the postseason picture entirely, but I like this offense to keep it rolling against the Baltimore starting rotation, which currently lacks a true shutdown ace. I think the Rangers will steal one on the road and close it out at home.
Baker: After a streak of 18 playoff losses dating back to 2004, the Twins finally got over the hump with a wild-card win over the Blue Jays. Now, they just might have what it takes (Royce Lewis at bat and Jhoan Duran in the bullpen) to knock off the defending champ Astros and make a run out of this.
Levy-Rubinett: Both 1-seeds (Baltimore and Atlanta) will fall in the divisional round.
Who will win the World Series? (Include the matchup, the winner, and a brief explanation.)
Lindbergh: Heck if I know, but let’s say Twins over Phillies. The Twins have already gotten two monkeys off their back by beating the Yankees in their season series for the first time since 2001 and snapping their record 18-game postseason losing streak, so clearly, there’s nothing this Minnesota team can’t do. Don’t let that pedestrian 87-75 record fool you: The Twins are talented. They placed sixth in BaseRuns record, finished fourth in pitcher fWAR (with, incredibly, a major-league-leading strikeout rate), and ranked third in wRC+ after the break as their rookies reinforced their lineup. They also ranked third overall in percentage of runs scored on homers, one of the few factors that may portend postseason success. Twenty-seven of the last 30 World Series winners (dating back to 1992) ranked in the top half of the league in Opening Day payroll, which wasn’t the case for the Twins, but this is the year of results that are out of step with spending. Plus, I think it would be funny if this year’s champion came from the AL Central. (And in fairness to the Twins, they were six games over .500 against Central and non-Central opponents.)
Kram: Atlanta over Minnesota. (Get ready for some 1991 flashbacks with announcer John Smoltz.) Take all the disparate roster units for every remaining playoff team—lineup, rotation, bullpen—and Atlanta’s historically great lineup fills me with by far the most confidence. As long as Max Fried’s return to the rotation after suffering a finger blister in September goes well, Atlanta is the clear favorite, with both offense and pitching, star power and depth.
Wagner: Astros over Braves. Since 2019, the Astros have faced three different rivals of my beloved New York Mets in the World Series (the Nationals, the Braves, and the Phillies). I have openly rooted for Houston in all three of those series. They failed me twice, but briefly redeemed themselves last year. If I am cursed to be the only person outside Texas rooting for the Astros, I think I am entitled to have them prevent the Braves from winning a second World Series in three years. These are simple and fair terms for my deal with the devil (the Houston Astros). That’s baseball analysis!
Comer: Braves over the Orioles in seven games. Once Atlanta is past Philly, Ronald and Co. will cruise through the NLCS and toward their second World Series trophy in three years. Baltimore will be waiting, and we’ll see the best Fall Classic since 2016. It will be a grueling battle reminiscent of the regular-season series that took place between these two teams in May, but these Braves are a team of destiny, and there’s no stopping destiny. The South, as André 3000 once so eloquently put it, got something to say.
Levy-Rubinett: Evidently, I don’t believe much in pitching because I’m going Dodgers over Rangers.
Stamas: Phillies over the Rangers in six. I think whoever comes out of the NLDS matchup between Philly and Atlanta is the clear World Series front-runner, and this Phillies team is hell-bent on not only making it back to the World Series but finishing the job this time around. The city of Philadelphia will get another parade after a series of almost-titles over the past 12 months, and Bryce Harper will win World Series MVP to go with that elusive first ring.
Baker: I’m using this space to try to manifest Orioles-Phillies into existence, in part because can you imagine all those Bawlmer and Fluffya accents clashing in the stands (and in standstill traffic on I-95)? Have mercy, particularly when Yennier Cano takes the mound! O’s in six.
