The Hot Read, Week 6: The Undefeateds Have Fallen
San Francisco and Philadelphia both lost to backup quarterbacks and good defenses—what does it mean for the NFL as a whole? Plus: taking stock of the 5-1 Lions, Lamar Jackson’s impressive day, how Lou Anarumo is carrying the Bengals, awards, and more.
This is the Hot Read. In this column, you’ll find everything and anything I found interesting from the NFL Week 6 Sunday action. There’s the stuff that everyone’s talking about, and the stuff that nobody’s talking about; the stuff that makes football incredible, and the stuff that makes football fun. I hope you enjoy it and learn something cool—and if you do, I hope you’re back next week, when we do it all again.
The Big Thing: The Fall of the Undefeated
A lot happened in the NFL on Sunday. If there’s one thing you need to know, it’s this.
We entered Sunday with two unbeaten teams: the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles. We leave with zero.
Both teams lost weirdly similar games. The 49ers played the Browns, and the Eagles played the Jets—both on the road. Both opponents were starting backup quarterbacks: The Jets had Zach Wilson, whom they’ve been playing since Week 1; the Browns had PJ Walker, who played for the first time this season. In other words, both were teams that the undefeateds should have handled … handily.
So what went wrong? And what does it mean for the NFC’s top contenders moving forward?
Let’s start with the 49ers. Their 19-17 loss to the Browns didn’t tell us too much about San Francisco. The team lost both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey to injury during the game, and Trent Williams also left for a portion before returning. Those are the three most important players on the 49ers offense, and Brock Purdy’s reliance on them really showed.
It was by far the worst game of Purdy’s career. Here are each of his starts by success rate (not including last year’s conference championship game, in which Purdy was injured in the first quarter):
The absences of Samuel and McCaffrey removed a lot of the easy offense that Purdy often enjoys—screens, dump-offs, and option routes that go for 10-plus-yard gains—but Purdy was already struggling before the injuries. It seemed the rainy weather in Cleveland affected his accuracy and his ball security. Blend those together, sprinkle in a missed would-be game winner from rookie kicker Jake Moody, add a dash of a terrible drive-extending call from the refs on the Browns’ go-ahead drive, and I struggle to draw too much meaning from this loss.
We did learn something about the Browns, whose defense now has four of the five best single-game performances this season by success rate (the percentage of plays allowed that generate positive expected points for the opposing offense). What was particularly impressive about the Browns’ defensive performance was how they handled the 49ers’ rushing attack, which is usually successful independent of who’s in the backfield. On a rainy day with a struggling quarterback, the running game is an offense’s saving grace.
The 49ers ripped off consecutive runs of 8, 27, and 5 yards to start their first drive. After that? Twenty-two carries for 68 yards.
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That’s a Jim Schwartz win. Cleveland’s defensive coordinator did what he has done for years—loaded the box with a body for every gap and let his defensive line go off. Dalvin Tomlinson, a key free agent addition for the Browns this season, lived in the 49ers backfield. Myles Garrett knifed through gaps and disrupted (duh, he’s Myles Garrett)—but so did Ogbo Okoronkwo, another free agent addition on the defensive line.
At the second level, safety Grant Delpit and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah did what so few successfully do against the 49ers: stepped down into the hole and made tackles. What an enormous change from last season, when this Browns defense was reliably trampled by bigger bodies and physical running games.
A crash back down to earth for Purdy, combined with Cleveland’s dominance against the run, and the 49ers offense wasn’t just clipped—it was steamrolled. This was the worst offensive performance by Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers in the past 2,219 days. If there were a Coordinator of the Year award, through six weeks it would be Schwartz’s in a landslide.
The Eagles’ loss, in some ways, feels even more fluky than the 49ers’—but there is also more to learn from it. The Eagles lost the turnover battle 4-0, and three of their turnovers were very silly. Jalen Hurts threw one pick when his arm was hit, and another pick hot-potatoed out of Dallas Goedert’s arms into Quinnen Williams’s lap. The Jets’ lone fumble recovery looked like this:
That’s goofy stuff, but it accumulates. There are 797 games with at least a 4-0 turnover differential in the Stathead database, and the turnover-happy team is 34-760-3. That’s a win percentage of 4.5 percent.
Of course, even with a 3-0 turnover differential, the Eagles were in a spot to win the game. Up by two in the fourth quarter, Hurts made perhaps the single worst play of his young and famously coolheaded career.
As bad of a pick as you’ll see. Late, directly to two defenders, in a situation where almost anything besides a turnover is acceptable!
This was a shockingly out-of-character moment for Hurts, but the general struggles of the Eagles cannot come as too much of a surprise. In the Week 4 installation of the Hot Read, I wrote about the concerns I harbored with the 4-0 Eagles—two games later, the chickens are home and roosting.
The Eagles were rotating cornerbacks early against the Jets this week, first giving a drive to Josh Jobe before wheeling in Eli Ricks, who got hurt, pushing Jobe back into the lineup. Nickel cornerback Bradley Roby, signed off the street two weeks ago and already a stabilizing veteran in that young secondary, also left the game with an injury—with Roby and starting nickel Avonte Maddox both out, Mario Goodrich manned the slot.
That’s corner; here’s safety: Justin Evans is on IR, Sydney Brown was also out for this game, and Reed Blankenship left this game with an injury. Those three, along with Terrell Edmunds, are the safeties the Eagles intentionally entered the season with—that was their plan! With all the injuries, undrafted rookie cornerback Mekhi Garner had to take snaps at safety.
This secondary is supposed to play the Dolphins next week. Philadelphia tried to go thin at safety and corner this season, and it’s burning them at the absolute worst time. (Tyreek Hill has 814 receiving yards, which is the most for a single player through the season’s first six games since 1942. The record through seven games in an NFL season: 961, only 147 yards off of Hill’s current pace.)
Because of the injuries and the turnovers, it’s easy to wave away the Eagles’ loss. It will become harder if their defensive issues lead to more losses, though—and with a bear of a schedule on the way, I think they will. The 49ers? I’m a little less worried. Get Brock out of the rain, get some good news on Deebo and CMC, and they should go right back to their steamrolling ways.
Right back—but with a tick in the loss column now. Congrats, Larry Csonka.
The Little Things
It’s the little things in football that matter the most—zany plays, small victories, and some laughs. Here’s where you can find them.
1. THE DEFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE committed by Taron Johnson
Here’s the smartest and best penalty committed by a player this week: a game-winning defensive stop from Bills nickel corner Johnson against Giants tight end Darren Waller.
Here’s why this DPI is good. There are, in Johnson’s world, two outcomes that could result from his coverage.
The first is a no-call, which is what he got. The advantage is obvious: He makes it really hard for Waller to catch the ball, and on an incompletion, he wins his team the game.
The second is a called DPI. With the clock already at zero and the Giants on an untimed down from the 1-yard line, the Giants would gain virtually no yardage from a called DPI—they’d just get another crack at scoring a touchdown. And on that next play, you can commit DPI again, and all they’d get is another crack at it. And then you can do it again. And then you can do it again.
The upside of the no-call dramatically outweighs the downside of the call.
Throw in the outcomes if Johnson didn’t grab Waller—that is, Waller would be far more likely to catch the football and win the game because Johnson wouldn’t be interfering with him—and the choice is obvious. Commit that penalty and live with the results.
Also, real quick: Johnson? As clutch as it gets. Had a game-winning pick against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season last year. What a player.
2. THE BLOCK from Detroit Lions running back Craig Reynolds
With rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs out pregame and starting back David Montgomery knocked out in the first half, the Lions had to turn to third-stringer Reynolds. Reynolds is a Hard Knocks favorite and a culture guy, and the reason why Dan Campbell loves him so much was obvious on this Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown. I’m not gonna tell you who Reynolds was; you’ll know.
This block didn’t just eliminate a defender who could have tackled St. Brown short of the line to gain—it eliminated two. Watch the man that Reynolds hits, Carlton Davis (no. 24), careen into the path of Antoine Winfield Jr. (no. 31). Winfield has to leap and change his angle, and he’s too far behind St. Brown to shove him out of bounds.
Not just a highlight block—a block that pool-shot one defender into the other. That’s hustle and physicality. That’s the brand of Dan Campbell and the 5-1 Detroit Lions.
3. THE HIT from Jabrill Peppers
Hitting is one of my favorite parts of the game, which is tough, because hitting—especially when done incorrectly or recklessly—is one of the most dangerous parts of the game. But a thunderous hit can be game altering, as it was in the red zone for Peppers and the Patriots defense when Jimmy Garoppolo threw a quick in-breaker to Davante Adams.
This sort of play is why safeties and linebackers must be allowed to hit—not in the head or neck area, and not with their own head—with velocity and power. These quick in-breaking routes are essentially free for offenses unless safeties can drill down on the throw.
Here’s another example. A lot happened in the 49ers-Browns game, and it’s impossible to hang the result on a refereeing decision when a game-winning field goal was missed. But the flag on this hit from Tashaun Gipson extended the Browns’ drive that ended up swinging the result. If defenses want to stop slant routes, they need their safeties to deliver safe shoulder-to-body collisions to receivers just like this.
Hitting can be safe, and when it’s safe, it’s a great part of the game. Football is fast and physical. Let it be so.
4. THE INSIDE HAND on this Jermaine Johnson rush
The Jets wisely got after backup Eagles offensive tackle Jack Driscoll following the injury to Lane Johnson, and they were rewarded for it with this turnover—a Bryce Hall interception off a Jermaine Johnson pressure.
The Jets rushed Hurts in a particularly smart way all game, putting pressure on his back shoulder and baiting him to climb the pocket. Here, watch Johnson show an upfield rush but keep his right hand on Driscoll’s shoulder and yank him upfield, spinning him around and out of the picture. Hurts climbs, thinking Johnson will keep working upfield—in reality, Johnson was waiting for him to step up all along.
The Zag: The Detroit Lions Aren’t in the Top Tier. Yet.
I tend to be a little contrarian. It’s not so much a personal choice as it is an occupational hazard. Here’s where I’ll plant my flag.
I am the Lions guy. Don’t let anyone tell you I’m not the Lions guy. I wrote about the promise of their rebuild at the end of the 2021 season, and then I did it again at the end of the 2022 season. I told you the Lions would be good. You heard it here first.
Now, with all of that said: I’m positive the Lions are good. I’m just not sure how good they are.
Consider the top of the NFC. There are the 5-1 Eagles, fresh off a bad loss to the Jets; the 5-1 49ers, fresh off a bad loss to the Browns; and the Lions, who have won their past four games by multiple scores. Detroit knocked off the defending champ Chiefs to start the season and lost only to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime.
I love how the Lions win games. They are creative, aggressive, and fearless. Their coaching staff stacks up against any in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be the hottest head-coaching candidate as the author of a blended offensive approach that maximizes and harmonizes specialized players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and David Montgomery. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who suffered through two seasons of mistake after mistake after mistake from young defenders, finally has a unit with reliable playmakers. Alex Anzalone has stepped up; Cam Sutton is the CB1 they paid for; Brian Branch has been huge; Alim McNeill is a rising star.
When I look at the Lions, I see a coaching staff that is maximizing the talent that the team drafted and developed. But when I look for teams that are legit contenders, I’d also like to see star players who are powering a team’s success. To see that they have true takeover talent. And I’m not sure the Lions are there yet.
Defensively, the Lions look like they might have a star in Aidan Hutchinson, who is second in the league in total pressures (but only 29th in pressure rate). A second-year leap from Hutch is pushing him into the conversation with top edge rushers—but who would you rather have in a playoff game: Hutch or Nick Bosa? Hutch or Haason Reddick? Those are the star pass rushers the 49ers and Eagles are playing with, and they wreck games more reliably than Hutch does at this point.
What about at receiver? St. Brown is one of the toughest and most talented wide receivers. Do you take him over A.J. Brown in Philadelphia or Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco? I don’t think you do. (It’s worth noting that the Lions tried to add a star wide receiver here with Jameson Williams, a top-15 pick. He had a nice big touchdown Sunday, but altogether? Not what they were looking for.)
Quarterback? Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts are actually an interesting conversation across the board. But I’ve seen Goff in the playoffs before, and I know what top defenses tend to think of him (though it was a few years ago).
The Lions have an excellent litmus test game on their schedule next week, when they’ll travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens. Win that game convincingly, and some of my concerns will dissipate. But you know what would really help them vanish? A tectonic trade deadline move. Go get Davante Adams from Las Vegas or Patrick Surtain II from Denver. Does Brian Burns still want out of Carolina? I want the Lions to add that math-changing, scale-tipping, I’m-gonna-beat-your-best-and-it’s-gonna-be-like-this-all-day star to their roster.
And then I want to bet on them to win the Super Bowl.
(Mostly Real) Awards
I’ll hand out some awards. Most of them will be real. Some of them won’t be.
Most Valuable Player (of the Week): Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
It wasn’t an astonishing game in the stat sheet: 21-of-30 passes, 223 yards, a touchdown, a pick; 13 carries for 62 yards on the ground. But it certainly feels like Lamar yanked an unwilling Ravens offense up and down the field to a win over the Titans, who always play the Ravens tough. This third-and-3 scramble is a great example:
Few quarterbacks get to just stand in front of free rushers the way Jackson does. He’s the league’s greatest offensive safety net. Now if the Ravens could just fix their drops and their red zone offense (very easy things to do, of course), they could start putting up some real numbers on offense.
Offensive Player of the Year (of the Week): Rams RB Kyren Williams
I like Williams. Tough runner, springier than you’d think, and certainly faster than a 4.65-second 40-yard dash would imply.
I like his stat line even more. First half: two carries, 4 yards. Second half: 18 carries, 154 yards, touchdown.
Hypocrisy Award: The NFL
The Dolphins, as a team, have the best touchdown celebrations overall. (Which makes sense—they spend the most time planning their touchdown celebrations because they are more likely to score touchdowns than anyone else.)
Tyreek Hill had a banger Sunday. He scored on a 41-yard bomb, found his personal social media/content/video guy, grabbed an already-recording iPhone, and took a selfie video while he did a backflip.
Now, the officials immediately penalized him, and the NFL will almost certainly fine him for using a prop in a celebration. But the NFL’s U.K. account also tweeted the selfie video that Hill took! And then deleted it when they got called out for it! (By me. I did this. The league fears me. The sheer notion of the Hot Read crosshairs shakes them to their bones.)
I don’t actually care about this—the league does way worse things than farm social engagement off of viral moments that they’ll flag anyway. But it is, objectively, hilarious. “Do as I fine, not as I tweet”—words to live by.
The Real Reason We’re Winning Games Award: Bengals DC Lou Anarumo
Everyone wants Joe Burrow to be healed and the Bengals offense to go back to its explosive ways—I’m with y’all. But can we please take a moment to acknowledge the consecutive performances of Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo—or, as he is affectionately known by all Ringer NFL Show listeners, Big Lou.
The Bengals defense molly-whopped a surprisingly plucky Cardinals offense in Week 5—five three-and-outs, three takeaways, and a defensive score. The Seahawks in Week 6 were supposed to be a stiffer test—and while they had more success moving the ball (44 percent success rate, as opposed to the Cardinals’ 31 percent), the Bengals battened down the hatches when it mattered, forcing two second-half turnovers and consecutive turnovers on downs on the final two drives.
As it always is with Anarumo’s defenses, unheralded contributors provide steady play. Perhaps the biggest name on the defense is pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, who is tied for third in the league with seven sacks. But how about second-year corner Cam Taylor-Britt, who ran step-for-step with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett all day and was rewarded with his second interception in as many weeks? Or rotational end Cam Sample and safety Dax Hill, who have stepped into massive empty shoes left behind by Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III and held their own? Or D.J. Reader, who sits atop the short list of run-stuffing nose tackles leaguewide?
The Bengals are 3-3 now, and the ship feels like it’s righting itself. But don’t forget who brought those three wins to Cincinnati while the offense found itself again: Big Lou, the unsung hero coordinating a defense full of the same.
The We’re Officially Bored by Your Dominance Award: The Miami Dolphins
Speaking of the Dolphins, they scored 42 points Sunday. Besides the Tyreek Hill moment I just showed you, can you think of a single play from their day? They were down 14-0 and had 42 unanswered points to come back. Do you know anything about how they did it?
Ho-hum. I need at least 50 to get out of bed, McDaniel.
Next Ben Stats
What it sounds like: Next Gen Stats, but I get to make them up.
About a year: That’s how long Bryce Young and Tua Tagovailoa hugged after the Dolphins-Panthers game
Look at this hug!
This is a great hug. I want more hugs like this in my life.
7: That’s how many pressures Jerry Hughes had. Also, Will Anderson Jr. Also, Jonathan Greenard. (They are all teammates.)
I love the Texans. I really do. I think they’ve made it into every Hot Read column at this point. They play exactly like their head coach, DeMeco Ryans, did back when he was playing middle linebacker for Houston: wicked smaht, physical as all get out, and hunting for the big play. Ryans has brought the same pass-rushing success to Houston that his San Francisco defenses long enjoyed, but with a defensive line lacking the household names. (For now.)
Injuries in the back seven are a big culprit for the low sack rate for Houston, but those numbers will even out as statistical regression hits. Anderson looks particularly great as a top-five pick with impact plays against the pass and the run, but the ageless Hughes and high-motor Greenard deserve their shine. This defensive line is rapidly reaching Problem Status—the sorta thing an offensive coordinator has to stress about on Tuesday and develop backup plans for on Thursday.
Houston is good. They’re a game back from Jacksonville in the AFC South, but they have a better point differential and they’ve beaten them head-to-head. I wouldn’t be surprised if this division is a tooth-and-nail fight down the way.
0: That’s how much of an idea I had that the Giants were making NFL history on Sunday night
I have no commentary to add to this stat besides the stat itself.
145: That’s the number of consecutive starts for Jason Kelce, the most impressive thing a Kelce brother has done recently
Sunday marked 145 consecutive starts for Kelce, who now owns the franchise record in Philadelphia and should walk into the Hall of Fame when the time comes. I’m hoping most of the Taylor Swift readers have tapped out of the column by now, but man—145 starts is an astounding number.
Yet another one: That’s how many more weeks I’ll stay on Desmond Ridder Island
Did I put this at the bottom of the column in the hope that none of you will see it and screenshot it and bully me? Yes. (Read that “yes” with a lot of shame.)
Did Ridder throw three interceptions, including one in the end zone, in a one-score loss to the Commanders? Yes. (Read that “yes” as a begrudging admission.)
Were at least two, and maybe even all three, of those interceptions at least partially the result of receiver miscommunications and sloppy play? Yes. (Read that “yes” with a lot of indignation.)
Did he overall look good? Yes. (Read that “yes” with a lot of joy and absolutely no fear.)
Tune in next week to hear me make more justifications!