The beginning of the NBA season is a time for possibility. Can Luka Doncic break into the MVP discussion? Will anyone challenge Victor Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year? Who will be Most Improved? Before the answers come into focus, our staff offered their picks for every major regular-season NBA award.
Most Valuable Player
Howard Beck: It’s Nikola Jokic, for the third time in four years. With few exceptions, the MVP is generally a superstar with gaudy stats (check), playing for a clear contender (check), and that team’s clear centerpiece (check). Joel Embiid seems like a long shot to repeat, given the James Harden drama that’s engulfing the Sixers. Luka Doncic won’t win because the Mavericks aren’t a contender. Ditto for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Oklahoma City.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s candidacy will be complicated/diluted by Damian Lillard’s presence in Milwaukee. Ditto for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant in Phoenix. Stephen Curry could make a run if he stays healthy (and if the Warriors don’t rest him too often). Jayson Tatum could make a run, assuming the Celtics’ reshuffled rotation provides sufficient support.
The only real concern for Denver is a possible championship hangover. But the Nuggets don’t seem like a self-satisfied bunch. Jamal Murray, now two years removed from his ACL tear, is flirting with stardom. Michael Porter Jr. has room to grow. And Jokic, already unguardable, just keeps getting better.
Justin Verrier: Luka Doncic. It’s gotta happen at some point, right? And if a Mavericks team widely projected to finish in the middle of the Western Conference exceeds expectations, it’ll be because Doncic has surpassed the extremely high bar he’s set for himself over five remarkable seasons. Dallas did a lot this offseason, and while it may not have resulted in the kind of bulletproof supporting cast that some of his Western peers have around them, this may be the most talented and deepest roster in Luka’s career. There’s enough to give Doncic an opportunity to make magic once again.
Logan Murdock: Giannis Antetokounmpo. Few things rejuvenate a generational talent like some help, and that’s just what Giannis got with the addition of Damian Lillard. All of the frustration from Milwaukee’s two early playoff exits since the 2021 title will be taken out on the rest of the league. The award would be Giannis’s third, matching him with Larry Bird, Moses Malone, and Magic Johnson. And it could mark the start of another era of Giannis’s career as he ventures deeper into his prime.
Michael Pina: Nikola Jokic will win his third MVP in four years while becoming the first player in NBA history to lead the league in assists and rebounds.
Seerat Sohi: Jokic. The whole (fairly contrived) argument last year was that it wouldn’t be fair to award Jokic his third MVP—putting him in the rarefied air of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson—before he won his first championship. Jokic decimated that argument and proved he belonged in that category on an unstoppable championship run last season. That gives him all the early-season MVP momentum, despite his indifference about it all.
Otherwise, the conditions won’t be all too different from last season. He’ll still be the most dominant offensive force in basketball. The Nuggets will still be thin on the front line behind him, making him a plus-minus maven. But now he’ll have the all-powerful narrative on his side, which means that even if Jokic suffers from some minor statistical declines, a career season from Giannis, Luka Doncic, or any of the other candidates would be required to prevent Jokic from cruising to his third MVP in four years.
Danny Chau: Luka Doncic. There are just some seasons when the MVP award must go to a dominant statistical profile rather than the avatar of the best team. Voter fatigue might be a myth, as our own Howard Beck laid out last season, but I do anticipate a dulling effect on Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis—if only because I don’t think the NBA media-industrial complex can handle rehashing the same tired lines for yet another season. I doubt the Mavericks are a top-five team out West, but I don’t doubt Doncic’s ability to put up one of the best individual seasons in league history—on the level of Russell Westbrook in 2017 or Jokic in 2022. Free us, Luka.
Zach Kram: The best reason to pick someone other than Jokic is that he (and, by extension, the Nuggets) might not try quite as hard on a night-to-night basis in the regular season as they prepare for another long playoff run. But the counterargument is that Jokic is such a dominant, unguardable offensive player that he produces MVP-caliber numbers even when he’s not giving 100 percent: Even on his off nights, Jokic averages a near triple-double and shoots 60 percent from the field.
Moreover, while voter fatigue may have swung voters away from Jokic last season, preventing him from winning his third consecutive award, that factor shouldn’t go against the Nuggets star this year—not when he just won Finals MVP, removing any possibility that the “But he hasn’t done it in the playoffs!” argument will be used against him.
Rob Mahoney: Nikola Jokic. There’s a pretty strong consensus that Jokic is the best player in the NBA, and it feels like the award voting this season will swing back to reflect that. Last season’s MVP race was decided by a great many things—including Joel Embiid being awesome. But then there were philosophical debates about what makes a player valuable, allegations of stat padding, questions about the demographics of the voting body, and historical considerations about what it would mean for Jokic to win his third straight MVP. It was a lot. Things are a lot simpler on this side of a Nuggets title, which should pave the way for the most straightforward candidate possible.
Defensive Player of the Year
Sohi: Victor Wembanyama. I know, I know. He’s just a rookie, and the nuances of NBA defense take a while to pick up. But he seems to be catching up just fine, and his 8-foot wingspan gives him the widest margin for error in the NBA.
The guy averaged 4.7 blocks per 36 minutes in the preseason, and he’s already the kind of deterrent that opposing coaches will try to take out of plays by stashing his man on the weakside corner to keep him from blowing up even the most basic of actions. The question, from there, will become this: How soon can the Spurs’ collective of youthful, long aggressors pick up on the nuances of a zone defense? Flanked by the likes of Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell, Wemby will eventually be the linchpin of a cumbersome, maddening, turnover-creating machine on defense. It could be effective as soon as this season.
Kram: Here are Bam Adebayo’s finishes in DPOY voting over the past four seasons: fifth, fourth, fourth, fifth. To which I say: How has he never finished any higher?!?!?! Adebayo is the centerpiece of one of the NBA’s stingiest, most adaptive defenses, equally capable of chasing scorers around the perimeter and walling off the paint. One of these years, he’ll get his just due.
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Mahoney: Anthony Davis. Davis has been an awesome defender for a long time, but injuries and team circumstances always seemed to keep him out of the running for the top individual award on that end of the floor. This looks like it could finally be his year. AD will be the signature force on what could be the best defensive team leaguewide—a defense-first team, really, whose contention hinges on the exact things that Davis does best. The blanketing coverage and game-altering help will be there. The showcase will be too, as AD and the Lakers will have every opportunity to dominate in highly visible games. The question, as always, is whether his health will allow it—and whether he can play the 65 games now required for award consideration after falling short of that mark for three seasons in a row.
Pina: Victor Wembanyama is only 19 years old. Who cares? He hasn’t played a game and is already one of the five most versatile and intimidating defenders in the world.
Chau: Bam Adebayo. This may be contingent on whether the Heat care enough to win regular-season games, but the field is open. Brook Lopez will be adapting to a new defensive system that will leave him more vulnerable than he’s been in his years with Mike Budenholzer, and Giannis’s free-safety brilliance may be dinged by the team’s overall growing pains on that end. The reigning DPOY had a massive PR hit at the FIBA World Cup and will now have to play center full time, where his already astronomical foul rate will rise to new heights. Evan Mobley is a legitimate contender, but Adebayo has been a model of consistency and plays at a position that has historically dominated the award. I think this is the year Bam will finally be recognized for his game-changing versatility.
Beck: All of these awards are tough to forecast in October. But DPOY always feels like the biggest pure guess. So let’s go with Bam Adebayo—the backbone of a Miami defense that’s ranked in the top 10 in each of the past four seasons—who has yet to be honored for his efforts. Adebayo has finished fifth twice and fourth twice in DPOY voting during that span, in a competitive field that’s included Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Ben Simmons (remember him?), Evan Mobley, Draymond Green, Marcus Smart, Mikal Bridges, and Jaren Jackson Jr. Adebayo doesn’t swat shots into the third row or pile up the rebounding numbers, but he’s as versatile and as vital as any of his rivals. And, well, maybe he’s just due.
Verrier: Anthony Davis. The 30-year-old proved last postseason that he can be the league’s most dominant defender when his body allows for it, and the Lakers have compiled the sort of depth to finally alleviate the burden on him and LeBron. Davis will shift to center when it matters, but in the meantime, he’ll be able to rack up block totals by letting Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, and the other frontcourt redshirts soak up the pounding and then pouncing from the weak side to save the day.
Rookie of the Year
Chau: Victor Wembanyama. Let the mythologization commence.
Pina: Victor Wembanyama. Apologies to Chet Holmgren, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, and the Thompson twins, but Wemby is one of the most singularly talented rookies in NBA history. If he appears in at least 65 games, it’s his trophy to lose.
Kram: I was all set to get cute and pick someone other than Victor Wembanyama—maybe San Antonio will be cautious and hold him out of some games? Chet Holmgren’s great too!—and then I watched the best prospect since LeBron play in the preseason. Wemby it is.
Beck: I truly hope this is a memorable, competitive race involving Scoot Henderson, Chet Holmgren, and maybe even Brandon Miller or some other 2023 draftee. But if the preseason was any indication, Victor Wembanyama might run away with this thing. As we saw in limited doses in the preseason, Wemby is every bit as skilled, versatile, and awe-inspiring as the hype suggested. He’s a generational talent and possibly a transformational figure. He’ll be tough to beat—on the court and at the ballot box.
Mahoney: I’m sure we’ll be raving about Chet Holmgren and Scoot Henderson too, but as prospects go, Victor is kind of in his own universe. It’s just hard to imagine that another rookie would have a bigger impact than the guy who’s already making veterans think twice on the floor and look to their benches in complete disbelief.
Verrier: Victor Wembanyama. I want to zag and pick Chet Holmgren, who in the preseason flashed the skill (50 percent from 3, two blocks a game) and appetite for destruction that could put him on the path to stardom, but a vote against Victor would be a vote out of fear of injury, and I can’t have that on my conscience. Whatever concerns existed about whether the Spurs would limit Wemby’s minutes or box him into a traditional big man role went out the window around the time that he went between his legs on an isolation from the perimeter and pulled up from the foul line.
Murdock: Wemby. A strong preseason filled with unworldly plays has set the stage for the 19-year-old’s rookie year. He’ll have the benefit of Hall of Fame coaching, proven organizational support, and 19 nationally televised games to showcase his talent.
Sohi: Victor Wembanyama. See above.
Most Improved Player
Beck: Let’s go with Tyrese Maxey, with an assist from James Harden. Maxey has been trending toward stardom, doubling his scoring average in his sophomore NBA season (from eight to 17.5 points per game) and then cracking the 20-point club last season, all while providing a steady hand as the Sixers’ secondary playmaker. Now, Harden is pouting his way out of town, opening the door for Maxey to seize a starring role next to Joel Embiid. The swagger and the scoring touch are there. Can Maxey handle the added responsibility and spotlight? Can he strike the right balance between scoring and playmaking—and bump up his modest assists average (3.5 per game last season)? Can he keep the Sixers’ season from going off the rails? If the answers are all yes, Maxey could have a stranglehold on this race.
Pina: Desmond Bane finished fifth for this award in 2022. He gets better every year, and as he assumes even more on-ball responsibilities on a team that should be pretty good, Most Improved Player could finally be his.
Prediction: Since Ja Morant will miss the season’s first 25 games and Marcus Smart is a low-usage, pass-first point guard, Bane will have an opportunity to solidify himself as the game’s most lethal pull-up shooter and make more 3s than everyone not named Steph Curry. If his scoring average crosses 25 points per game and he drills over 40 percent of his outside shots for the fourth straight season, it’ll be hard to find a better candidate.
Chau: Cade Cunningham. A handful of players from his 2021 draft class may have surpassed him in public opinion, but Cunningham’s selection at no. 1 wasn’t a mistake. He still has all of the tools and leadership qualities you want out of a jumbo initiator and a defensive aptitude and motor that seem rare among players of his archetype. It’ll be an uphill battle for Cunningham, given the lack of legitimate spacing in the Pistons’ baffling center-heavy starting lineup, but with ample recovery time from his stress fracture (and a new titanium rod in his left leg), Cunningham should put up huge numbers in year three.
Mahoney: Tyrese Maxey. There’s a Harden-shaped vacuum in Philadelphia and only one guard who could plausibly fill it. Maxey will get about as much ballhandling responsibility as he can handle, which should supercharge his development and lead to some booming production. We can expect a few growing pains too, but Maxey is too comfortable as a pick-and-roll scorer to be stifled by a heavier lift—especially when he has previously been able to scale up his contributions when the situation has called for it. Defenders just can’t stay in front of him. Now, they’ll have to try to do it another 25 times a game as Maxey works the two-man game alongside one of the most dominant scorers in the sport. That sounds like a recipe for an All-Star debut and some Most Improved hardware.
Verrier: Tyrese Maxey. There’s a tried-and-true formula for this award: An already good player, typically in their third or fourth year, takes a noticeable leap in scoring thanks to an influx of offensive opportunities. That sure sounds like Maxey, who broke into the 20-points-per-game club last season and is earmarked for even more playmaking duties, with or without James Harden on the active roster.
Murdock: Mikal Bridges. Bridges completely flipped the narrative on his career last season following a deadline deal that sent him to Brooklyn for Kevin Durant. In the final 27 games of the season, he averaged 26.1 points and 4.5 rebounds in a primary role. His rise continued during the summer, as he became a key contributor to Team USA and even hit a game-tying shot against Canada.
Now, it’s time for him to become an All-Star, and with more shot attempts coming his way, he has a chance to not only build on last year, but make Nets basketball fun again. That deserves an award all by itself.
Sohi: Austin Reaves. The undrafted Arkansas native whose wholesome, winning grin has a sly, fuck-around-and-find-out edge is hungry for more greatness. He’s 25, but he’s played only 3,261 minutes in the NBA—400 fewer than 21-year-old Alperen Sengun. He’s coming off of a Team USA experience in which he was one of the few highlights, soaking in knowledge in the form of tidbits from Steve Kerr and hard, physical hits from international players. He’s an observer with a front-row seat to the methodology and habits of LeBron James, who, with aging legs, will certainly hope that Reaves can carry a heavier burden this season.
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Kram: When Tyrese Maxey played without James Harden last season, his pick-and-roll rate quadrupled, and his usage rate increased from 19 to 30 percent. His production per 75 possessions increased from 19 points and two assists playing next to Harden to 27 points and six assists playing without him. Translated over a full season—because I’m operating under the assumption that Harden won’t play much, if at all, for the 76ers—that output would elevate Maxey’s stats to superstar level. Only 11 rotation players averaged 27 and six per 75 possessions last season, and all 11 rank among the top 20 players in the entire NBA, per our staff player rankings.
Sixth Man of the Year
Pina: So long as Clint Capela is on the Hawks, Onyeka Okongwu will be the best backup center in the NBA. I know this award favors a particular archetype (score-first guards) and doesn’t at all care about defensive contribution. But Okongwu is at once overqualified in his role and immensely valuable to a pretty good Hawks team. He is efficient and productive, has great hands, and is one of the league’s best screen setters in an offensive system that doesn’t work without solid screens. None of this sounds sexy, but a best-case scenario for Okongwu looks something like 12 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks, and one absurd lob jam per game. The Hawks are always better when he’s on the court for a reason, and in Quin Snyder’s spread pick-and-roll offense, there’s a decent chance his strengths will shine bright enough to get the attention he deserves.
Kram: Chris Paul. Obviously, this pick will be wrong if Paul spends the majority of this season as a starter. But the Warriors’ five-man starting lineup last season was the best in the NBA, and I believe Paul fits best coming off the bench, staggering with Steph Curry, and letting that awesome five-man group stick together to start games. Malcolm Brogdon’s Sixth Man win last year, which countered the “Yay, points!” mindset that has so often dominated this award, sets the precedent for Paul’s case as a similarly potent creator and organizer who can fill in around his team’s stars.
Chau: Chris Paul. And he’ll throw it right into an incinerator.
Murdock: Malik Monk. Last year in Sacramento, Monk made a habit of scoring in quick bursts that nearly took the roof off of Golden 1 Center, single-handedly making sure the light beam was shined to the heavens on any given night. His ability to score will keep the Kings in the Western Conference playoff run, but the impact he has on the game will be the reason he takes home the hardware.
Sohi: Immanuel Quickley probably would have won this award last year if not for his late rise in a race in which Malcolm Brogdon had already seized the narrative. Now, he’s got a full season of runway ahead after a playoff run that provided plenty of opportunity for reflection.
Verrier: This award is bullshit, but Norm Powell will probably score a bunch of points, so let’s go with him.
Beck: Chris Paul will one day be in the Hall of Fame, and his trophy case is already packed with All-Star awards (12), All-NBA awards (11), All-Defensive team awards (nine), and, going way back, even a 2005-06 Rookie of the Year plaque. A Sixth Man of the Year run might sound strange for such a decorated star, but it should be in play now that he’s with the Warriors. Yes, Paul looked good as a starter next to Stephen Curry in the preseason, and there are advantages to the dual point guard look. But when Draymond Green is healthy, the Warriors should go back to their starting lineup from last season, which was one of the best in the NBA. Using Paul off the bench means the Warriors could have a HOF point on the floor for all 48 minutes. And his steady playmaking would help second-unit players like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody thrive.
Mahoney: Maybe this award will come down to “whichever Celtic winds up coming off the bench the most,” but considering we don’t even know who that might be just yet, I’ll take the safer bet on the board. Norm Powell is a natural candidate to lead all reserves in scoring, and he complements the Clippers stars well enough to play huge, impactful minutes overall. He’ll have a strong case for Sixth Man when it’s all said and done and a traditionally compelling case as far as what typically moves voters. That said: A potential Harden trade feels like a wild card here. Not only could Powell wind up a Sixer in such a deal, but even if he stays, Harden’s arrival would reconfigure the Clippers’ entire rotation and reshape the production that helps one of the league’s best backups make his case.
Coach of the Year
Beck: Michael Malone probably should have won this award by now—and not solely because his team just won the title. He’s been steadily molding the Nuggets into a tougher, more disciplined team since arriving in 2015, the same year a pudgy, little-known Serbian center made his debut. Under Malone’s guidance, the Nuggets went from having 33 wins to being a perennial playoff team, and they kept coming even after devastating injuries to Murray and Porter. Malone is now the league’s fourth-longest-tenured coach (behind Gregg Popovich, Erik Spoelstra, and Steve Kerr) and certainly one of its best, though he’s never finished higher than third in COY voting. Maybe this is the year he gets his due.
Verrier: This honor typically recognizes the best team rather than the best coach, but I’ll still go with Erik Spoelstra, the architect of one of the biggest playoff upsets in history, despite the fact that the Heat may not win enough regular-season games to get Spo the honor. Much like Michael Jordan and the MVP, there were plenty of seasons in recent history when Gregg Popovich could’ve (and probably should’ve) won COY every time, if not for voter fatigue. Spo probably isn’t at that level quite yet, but we might need to have the conversation after two Finals and three conference finals berths over the past four years.
Kram: This is the hardest award to forecast because of how the voting intrinsically blends in preseason expectations, adding an uncomfortably meta quality to the prediction. But if the young Thunder make the playoffs, Mark Daigneault—a Coach of the Year finalist last season—will fit the natural profile of the kind of coach who tends to win.
Pina: Erik Spoelstra. He’s been the best coach in the NBA for several years, has won two titles, and has appeared in four Finals. But somehow, Spo has never won the most important individual award his profession offers. That will hopefully change now. It’s time.
Chau: Mark Daigneault. It might as well be a lock if the Thunder make it to the postseason.
Murdock: Nick Nurse. Anyone who can withstand the early-season request from Harden, maintain the fort, and keep the Sixers in contention deserves at least a certificate.
Mahoney: In some seasons, the Coach of the Year conversation is dominated by an undeniable breakout—like when Mike Brown led the Kings to 48 wins and a top-three seed in the West. In the absence of that kind of meteoric rise, however, the award typically goes to a coach who helps an already developing team break through. Daigneault already had a strong case for Coach of the Year last season (and finished second in voting), which, in a way, supports his repeat contention. The Thunder are just getting started, and they won’t merely be a good team. They’ll be compelling, impressive, and young. They’re positioned to win Daigneault a lot of deserved credit for his developmental process and to win enough games to get him squarely in the awards race.
Sohi: Did you know Erik Spoelstra, arguably the best coach in the NBA for over a decade, has never won Coach of the Year? Did you know that Miami, after losing out on the Damian Lillard sweepstakes, will have to pull more undrafted gems from the nether regions of their roster just to stay even this coming season? Did you know Cole Swider is the next Duncan Robinson?
Spo is the rare coach who has all the qualities required for success in his profession. He’s creative but disciplined: a tactical genius with the guts to make bold in-game decisions. He inspires confidence in veterans and carves out system-friendly roles that allow young players to grow in service of the team. His squads, an on-court simulacrum of his intelligence, versatility, and passion, are always better than the sum of their parts. If Miami, a summer after losing two key rotational pieces, ends up with a top-five record in the East in Jimmy Butler’s 13th NBA season, Spo should finally, mercifully run away with this award.