Week 7 saw the Eagles and Ravens notch impressive victories. The Vikings handed the 49ers their second straight loss, and the Patriots upset the Bills. After six teams had byes last week, none have a bye this week. Who can explain this? Anyway, since we’ve got a full slate, no more wasting time. Let’s get to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 7 record: 6-7
Season record: 53-51-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
The only thing that kept the Bills from a three-game losing streak was a goal-line stand against the Giants in Week 6. That’s concerning! But most of my worry is about the Bills defense. They’ve just lost so many guys (cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano, tackle DaQuan Jones) to injuries. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver didn’t play last week and is questionable for this game. Edge rusher Von Miller has not looked like himself since returning from an ACL injury and played just six snaps last week. The Bills have had 104 regular-season games under Sean McDermott. Last week’s defensive performance against the Patriots ranked 97th among that sample in expected points added per drive. The Week 5 game against the Jaguars ranked 90th. It’s fair to wonder whether this defense is just going to struggle going forward.
As for the Bucs, they’ve lost three of their past four. I’m tempted to take them here, based on the state of Buffalo’s defense, but I know a “get right” game for the Bills is coming. Maybe this will be it?
The pick: Bills (-8.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+6.5)
Impressive performance by the Eagles defense in Week 7. They held the Dolphins to season lows in:
- Points
- Yards
- First downs
- Touchdowns
- And a bunch of other nerd stats too!
Offensively, quarterback Jalen Hurts is dealing with a knee injury, but he was not on the Eagles injury report Wednesday and is expected to play through whatever’s ailing him.
As for the Commanders, could this be Chase Young’s last game with the team that drafted him second in 2020? Young has stayed healthy and been productive (five sacks) so far this season, but he’s scheduled to become a free agent next spring. Young could be a nice addition for teams in need of pass-rush help.
The Commanders took the Eagles to overtime in Week 4. I don’t think they’ll win, but I think they can keep this one competitive.
The pick: Commanders (+6.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
From last week’s column:
I have an announcement to make: The days of me blindly taking Mike Tomlin as an underdog are over. I just can’t do it anymore.
The Ringer’s 2024 NFL Rankings
Your hub for The Ringer’s NFL rankings has arrived. Here we’ll feature our Power Rankings, Trade Value Rankings, and, of course, QB Rankings. Check back every week during the season as we put the league in order.
Good call, Sheil! Great timing! The Steelers, of course, found some fourth-quarter magic and beat the Rams in Los Angeles. They had 11 first downs in the fourth quarter—tied for the third most by any team in a game this season. They are now 54-31-4 against the spread as underdogs under Tomlin.
So what do I do now? Do I beg Tomlin to forgive me? Do I ask the Steelers to accept me back? Do I send them flowers? Perhaps some over-the-top romantic gesture? Or do I hold strong and pretend I don’t think about them at all and post photos of me with another team on Instagram?
I’m not built for this. Take me back, Pittsburgh. I’ll never wrong you again. TAKE ME BACK!!!
The pick: Steelers (+2.5)
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)
What an ugly performance by the Saints last Thursday night. They came back from a 24-9 deficit to tie the Jaguars in the fourth quarter, but still ended up losing thanks in part to a tough drop by tight end Foster Moreau that would have set New Orleans up to force overtime.
The Colts continue to look like a well-coached team. They piled up 456 yards of offense in last week’s close loss to Cleveland—by far the most of any team against the Browns this year. (No other team’s produced more than 296!)
There’s really not a whole lot separating these two teams right now, but I still believe in this Saints defense and think they can bounce back here.
The pick: Saints (-1.5)
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (+3)
Two things on the rookie quarterbacks here:
- I love what I’ve seen from C.J. Stroud so far. Couldn’t be more impressed.
- I’m not even close to giving up on Bryce Young.
The Panthers are the NFL’s only winless team. Head coach Frank Reich announced during the team’s bye week that he’s handing over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Is that going to fix Carolina’s issues? Probably not. But Young started to look more comfortable before the bye, and I think this Texans defense is gettable.
Stroud has looked like he’s in full control of Houston’s offense, and appears to be the type of quarterback that knows how to identify problems quickly and where his answers are. What he’s done so far is flat-out rare for a rookie.
On paper, the Texans are definitely the better team. But I’m thinking the bye might have helped to reset the Panthers. What the heck, let’s go ahead and make a terrible prediction that Carolina gets its first victory.
The pick: Panthers (+3)
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
As I said on this week’s episode of Extra Point Taken, I think the Rams are going to snag a wild-card spot in the NFC.
Their kicking game is a big question mark (and they replaced kickers this week), and I’m not sold on the defense. But when we look up at the end of the year, most of the teams that produce efficient offenses are going to make the postseason, and I’m consistently impressed with the Rams passing game. If they can protect Matthew Stafford, they can do damage. The Rams are currently sixth in EPA per drive and fifth in offensive success rate.
The Cowboys are 4-2 and coming off their bye. They have a big one coming up in Week 9 against the Eagles. There’s definitely a scenario in which Dallas’s pass rush dominates in this game and Stafford is forced into mistakes. But I think the Rams hit on enough explosive plays (only the Lions have more completions of 20-plus yards) to keep it competitive.
The pick: Rams (+6.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
The Titans traded safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles this week. Meanwhile, quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s status for this game is uncertain, but it sure sounds like the Titans could go with a combination of rookie Will Levis and second-year pro Malik Willis. Oh, and we’re talking about a team that went 2-4 even when it had Byard and Tannehill.
Here’s the deal: I could go with Mike Vrabel in an underdog role, which I generally like to do. But then if the Falcons deliver a convincing win, not only do I have to take the L here, but I also have to deal with Ben Solak annoying me on our next pod.
If I pick the Falcons and they cover, I still have to deal with Solak, but at least I get the win here. Meanwhile, if the Titans win or cover, I take the L in this column but at least I get to make fun of Solak. OK, it was helpful to talk that one out. My choice is easy.
The pick: Falcons (-2.5)
New York Jets at New York Giants (+3)
Lots of potential for drama in this one. If the Giants win, assuming it’s Tyrod Taylor starting at quarterback again, we get an unlikely QB controversy in which Brian Daboll is peppered with questions about what happens when Daniel Jones is healthy. What’s that, you say? He’s already fielding those questions? Oh, my bad!
Meanwhile, if the Jets win, they’ll be 4-3 and their fans will be tricked into having real playoff expectations, only to likely be hurt again in the weeks ahead.
No outcome here would surprise me. The Jets have been pretty competitive, but the Giants defense has shown signs of life. The Jets are the better team, but they also have the quarterback more likely to make a back-breaking mistake. I think I would probably just take the points regardless of who was favored.
The pick: Giants (+3)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
The Patriots put together a legitimately impressive offensive performance last week in their win against the Bills. Quarterback Mac Jones got the ball out quickly and was efficient, going 25-for-30 passing for 272 yards. And he took the Patriots down the field on a game-winning drive. This was the version of the Patriots offense that optimists thought they might get under Bill O’Brien. But it was one game. Can they do it again?
The Dolphins, meanwhile, suffered a tough Sunday night loss against the Eagles. They struggled to run the ball and left some plays on the field offensively. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill didn’t practice Wednesday because of a hip injury, and his status for this game is uncertain.
I can’t quite figure out this line. It feels high. The Dolphins and Patriots played in Week 2, and it was a competitive game that Miami won 24-17. Now the Dolphins could be without the player (Hill) who makes the whole offense go, and they are a 9.5-point favorite. I’m tempted to take the Patriots, but I don’t want to overreact to one impressive showing. They looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season. I could easily regret this one, but give me the Dolphins.
The pick: Dolphins (-9.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+1.5)
I thought the Packers were in a great spot last week. They were coming off a bye and facing a bad Broncos defense. But Green Bay got shut out in the first half and managed just 17 total points in its third straight loss.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are coming off an impressive Monday night performance in which quarterback Kirk Cousins carved the 49ers up for 378 passing yards. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is once again showing an ability to do more with less. He doesn’t have a talented defense, but Flores is scheming it up pretty nicely right now.
Having said that, one of the rules of the picks column is not to be overly influenced by what happened the previous week. When I zoom out, I think the Vikings are a better team, but I don’t know that there’s a huge difference between them and the Packers. I might feel differently about this take late Sunday afternoon, but for now, I’m riding with Green Bay.
The pick: Packers (+1.5)
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
My wonderful colleague Nora Princiotti detailed just how bizarre the Deshaun Watson situation has gotten in Cleveland. On one hand, the Browns are a pretty fun team. They’re 4-2, and their defense (last week against the Colts notwithstanding) has been terrific. On the other hand, this Watson mess just continues to hang over their entire season.
The Seahawks were sloppy last week, but they still beat the Cardinals by double digits. It doesn’t feel like they’re playing their best football just yet, but Seattle is still 4-2 on the season.
Key nugget in this one: Geno Smith is one of six quarterbacks who takes at least three seconds, on average, to get rid of the football. I think that’s a bad recipe against Myles Garrett and this Browns defense. PJ Walker could have a tough time against Seattle’s defense too, but I’m taking the points.
The pick: Browns (+3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
A relevant question about the 49ers since last season: How much of Brock Purdy’s success is because of Purdy, and how much is due to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers supporting cast? Well, we might get a little intel on that question in this game, given that Purdy is in concussion protocol. If he misses this game, Sam Darnold would start. Statistically, Darnold has been one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks in recent years. Over the past five seasons, 49 quarterbacks have had at least 500 dropbacks. Among that group, Darnold ranks 44th in EPA per pass play and 42nd in success rate. This truly feels like the final level of Shanahan trying to prove that he is an offensive wizard who can win with any quarterback.
The Bengals have not been a good team this season, but they have to like where they’re at. They withstood what is hopefully the worst of Joe Burrow’s calf injury and are 3-3 coming off their bye.
I could see the 49ers creating turnovers and running their way to a win here. But it could be Darnold vs. Burrow, and Burrow is getting more than a field goal? I’m sorry. I’m not going to overthink it.
The pick: Bengals (+3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)
The case for the Ravens here: They look like one of the NFL’s most complete teams. Lamar Jackson is carving defenses up from the pocket and still creating amazing second-reaction plays. Their defense has been outstanding. Their kicking game is elite. And they’re well coached.
The case for the Cardinals here: They’re the contrarian pick. They’ve lost four straight games by 10-plus points each. Who on earth would put actual money on them at this point?
I generally love being on the “nobody is going to take this team” side, but I have no interest in being a contrarian here. If the Ravens turn the ball over and the Cardinals make some plays on special teams to keep this one close, I’ll live with the loss.
The pick: Ravens (-8.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+7.5)
If you’re thinking, “Wait, didn’t these teams just play?” you’d be correct. The Chiefs handed Denver a 19-8 loss on Thursday Night Football in Week 6. Now, two weeks later, they play again. This scheduling quirk might be just as dumb as no teams having a bye in Week 8.
This Chiefs defense has been legitimately impressive so far this season. Based on success rate and EPA per drive, this is easily the best that Kansas City’s defense has performed through seven weeks since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018. The Chiefs are allowing just 13.7 points per game.
The Broncos got their second win of the season last week, and it’s possible that their defense, which played well against Kansas City two weeks ago, is showing signs of life. But I need to see more before I’m willing to take them in a spot like this.
The pick: Chiefs (-7.5)
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
I like when Bears fans get something to be excited about. Not everything has to be about championships. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sometimes you just want to be entertained for three hours on a Sunday, and quarterback Tyson Bagent gave the fans that last week in a 30-12 win over the Raiders. The Bears are 2-2 in their last four, and both losses have been one-possession games. That’s something! Especially considering how bad the first few weeks of the season were.
The Chargers continue to look like an unserious team. After last week’s loss to the Chiefs, they have fallen to 2-4. The defense was pathetic in the first half of that game, but in the second half it was the offense letting them down. The Chargers’ second-half possessions went: interception, punt, punt, punt, interception. Not great!
I don’t trust the Chargers in a big spot. But here? Against a backup quarterback and less pressure? Their talent just might win out.
The pick: Chargers (-8.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Last week was a disaster for the Lions. The Ravens scored 28 points before Detroit had a first down. Sometimes you get your butt kicked, and everything that can go wrong does go wrong. It happens. But that one game does not mean the Lions are overrated and can’t hang with the big boys. After all, they beat the Chiefs on the road in Week 1.
The Raiders continue to bore me. I don’t even have it in me to make a joke about how Josh McDaniels kicked a field goal from the 6-yard line in the fourth quarter with the Raiders trailing 21-3. I mean, what’s the point?
As of this writing, it’s unclear who is going to play quarterback for the Raiders. But the Lions have a coaching advantage and a talent advantage, are playing at home and are coming off of an embarrassing loss. Those factors make my decision easy.
The pick: Lions (-8.5)
