I thought about using this introduction to complain about being on the wrong end of a series of bad beats last week, but you know what? You don’t want to hear that. Instead, it’s on to Cincinnati … and Baltimore and Philadelphia and Frankfurt. Let’s get to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 8 record: 6-9-1
Season record: 59-60-3
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Rookie quarterback Will Levis breathed a little life into this Titans season with his four-touchdown performance last week in their win against the Falcons. The game plan was easy to decipher: throw screens and throw deep to DeAndre Hopkins. I like it—keep it simple!
Kenny Pickett was knocked out of Pittsburgh’s Week 8 game with a rib injury, but he practiced fully on Wednesday and is set to start this one. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, however, is out.
I won’t begin to tell you I know what will happen here, but Mike Tomlin and Mike Vrabel are coaches I generally like as underdogs and fade as favorites. This feels like an ugly, low-scoring game. Give me the points.
The pick: Titans (+2.5)
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Maybe I’m in the minority on this opinion, but I have some concerns about the Chiefs offense. Last week’s offensive performance against the Broncos was the worst they’ve had in terms of expected points added per drive in 102 games with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. Mahomes was dealing with an illness, so maybe that explains it.
Then again, maybe it doesn’t. In terms of offensive success rate, the Chiefs haven’t had a single game this season that qualifies as an above-average performance for a Mahomes start. Their best showing this season was Week 5 against the Jets, which ranked 59th among the 102 games with Mahomes as their starter. I’m not telling you the Chiefs offense is bad. It’s not. And it never will be as long as Mahomes is healthy. But this is the worst version of the Chiefs offense we’ve ever seen with Mahomes. That has nothing to do with him and everything to do with the lack of talent at wide receiver. Given how high the expectations are for that franchise while Mahomes is in his prime, I think it’s OK to be a little concerned about what we’ve seen through eight games.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, let the Patriots hang around a bit last week before putting them away in the fourth quarter. Miami is 6-2 and has been impressive, but Mike McDaniel’s team doesn’t have a signature win just yet. They got blown out by the Bills and lost by two touchdowns to the Eagles. Given how those two games played out and the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a loss, I’m rolling with KC here.
The pick: Chiefs (-1.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3)
The good news for the Rams is that quarterback Matthew Stafford is not going on injured reserve after suffering a thumb injury last week. The bad news is we probably won’t know for sure if he’ll play in this game until Sunday morning.
As for the Packers, things seem to be spiraling. They have lost four in a row and have failed to score more than 20 points in any of those games. Bottom line: Life is short. If you have a chance to potentially take Brett Rypien, the Rams’ backup quarterback, to cover the spread on the road, you do it.
The pick: Rams (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-3)
The Texans offense struggled to get going last week in their loss against the Panthers, but I was pretty impressed with their defense. Houston sacked Bryce Young six times and held Carolina to 224 total yards.
The Bucs, meanwhile, are coming off of a Thursday night loss to the Bills. Tampa Bay has lost three in a row and failed to score more than 18 points in each of those games. I think the Texans will bounce back here.
The pick: Texans (-3)
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3.5)
The Commanders made their intentions clear this week as they traded away edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. It seems obvious that the franchise’s new ownership wants to collect draft capital and hit the reset button in 2024—almost certainly with a new coach and general manager.
At 2-6, the Patriots have the worst record in the AFC. Leaguewide, only the Panthers and Cardinals have fewer wins. There’s a scenario here where Washington quarterback Sam Howell is sacked six times and has three turnovers and the Commanders look lifeless, given that they just lost two of their best players. But based on what I’ve seen from this Patriots offense all season, there’s no way I’m taking them to cover more than a field goal here.
The pick: Commanders (+3.5)
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
The Bears made the baffling decision this week to trade a 2024 second-round pick to the Commanders for edge rusher Montez Sweat. I like Sweat. Very good player. Premium position. 27 years old. So what’s the problem? Well, there are two. One, Sweat is scheduled to become a free agent after the season. He is under no obligation to sign a new deal with the Bears. If Sweat plays out the season in Chicago and then walks, the trade will be a complete disaster. The Bears could use the franchise tag. But is it good business to give up a second-round pick for the right to pay a player like Sweat $20.5 million next season? Of course not! So now, Sweat has all the leverage in negotiations, and even then, he might just want to play somewhere else. Oh, by the way, there are different kinds of second-round picks. Right now, Chicago is projected to have the third pick in the second round—35th overall. That’s an extremely valuable selection. Again, I like Sweat. There’s a chance he’ll sign a reasonable extension with the Bears and have a great career there. But the process here is bad for Chicago.
The Saints offense exploded for 511 yards in their win over the Colts last week. They are now considered the favorite to win the NFC South. This should be a relatively stress-free win for the Saints, but I don’t trust them enough to cover a number this high.
The pick: Bears (+8.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Let’s take a moment here to go over what happened in the past week for Arthur Smith and the Falcons:
- Last Thursday: Smith is asked about Desmond Ridder’s critics and points to “toxic groupthink” among those unwilling to grind the film.
- Sunday: During the Falcons’ loss to the Titans, Ridder is evaluated for a concussion. He clears the concussion protocol, but Smith sticks with Taylor Heinicke. Smith says afterward that Ridder wasn’t benched for performance reasons but declines to elaborate.
- Monday: Smith is asked if Ridder will start in Week 9 if he’s cleared medically. Smith throws out some gibberish and doesn’t answer the question.
- Wednesday: Smith names Heinicke the starter.
Maybe there’s something going on with Ridder that Smith really can’t get into. But this sure seems like a straight up benching that’s being covered up by an overly paranoid coach. And if that’s the case, why not treat the players like grown-ups and show some respect to the fan base? Smith could simply say that the offense is in a bit of a rut and that he still believes in Ridder but wants to see whether Heinicke can give the team a spark. He could cite some examples of players who took a step back, gained a new perspective, and were better for it in the long run. It’s not that hard! Coaches who have won can get away with the type of nonsense Smith is trying to pull off. But Smith is 18-24, and his offense currently ranks 24th in DVOA. This is not someone we need to be giving the benefit of the doubt to.
As for the Vikings, they traded for Joshua Dobbs in the wake of Kirk Cousins’s season-ending Achilles injury. But Dobbs just got there, and rookie Jaren Hall is expected to start this one. It’s a tough spot for Minnesota, but it has been a well-coached team this season, and I just can’t get behind the Falcons at this point.
The pick: Vikings (+4.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
No game better represents the state of the NFL in Week 9 than this one. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was a limited practice participant on Wednesday, and his status for this game is up in the air. If he can’t go, Cleveland will once again roll with PJ Walker. Cardinals franchise quarterback Kyler Murray, meanwhile, was a full practice participant Wednesday and could be set to make his 2023 debut. But that’s far from certain! If Murray’s not ready yet, Arizona is expected to go with rookie Clayton Tune. The quarterback situation around the league right now just feels like a complete mess.
The Browns and Cardinals are organizations with very different motivations at this point in the season. The Browns must be feeling the pressure to win now. The Cardinals, meanwhile, would have the first pick in the draft if the season ended today. Are we sure they’ll really be trying to win games the rest of the way?
Given all the uncertainty at quarterback, I have no idea what to pick here. If we find out who’s starting at quarterback (for either or both teams) before the week ends and the line shifts dramatically, check back for an updated pick. But for now, I’ll take Cleveland.
The pick: Browns (-7.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
What a lineup we have on Sunday. Chiefs-Dolphins early from Frankfurt. This game in the 1 p.m. ET window. Eagles-Cowboys in the late window. And then Bills-Bengals at night. I love that the four best games of the day are spread out.
The Seahawks won a weird one last week against Cleveland. They took an early 17-7 lead, then fell behind 20-17, and finally stole it at the end. The Seahawks defense has gotten a lot healthier, and they just added defensive end Leonard Williams from the Giants. That’s a unit to watch in the second half of the season.
As for the Ravens, they might be the most complete team in football. They can run it. They can pass it. Their defense is now rated first, overtaking Cleveland, in terms of EPA per drive. And they generally have an edge in the kicking game.
I think I know what we’ve got with the Ravens. If they lose this game, I’m unlikely to think much differently about them. But this is a “What’s their ceiling?” game for the Seahawks. At 5-2, they’re in first place in the NFC West. If they can go on the road and beat Baltimore, expect to hear some Super Bowl sleeper buzz. Unless Seattle QB Geno Smith turns the ball over multiple times, I feel like this one’s going to be tight.
The pick: Seahawks (+5.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
It wasn’t the most entertaining game I’ve ever seen, but the Panthers found a way to get their first win of the season at home last week against the Texans. Their defense was flying around in that game. I thought that group had a chance to be pretty good this season, but they’ve been mostly terrible. While it was only one game, maybe they can turn things around.
The Colts, meanwhile, have given up 37 points or more in three straight games—all losses. But they continue to move the ball on offense.
The Panthers are a limited team, but I don’t think they’re quite as bad as the 0-6 start suggested. Give me the home dog.
The pick: Panthers (+2.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
On one hand, at 7-1, the Eagles are in a great spot. On the other, if they lose here, they’re tied with the Cowboys in the loss column. There’s a scenario in which one of these teams could get the no. 1 seed in the NFC and the bye, while the other could face a Super Bowl path that involves having to win three games on the road. It’s still relatively early in the season, but there’s a lot on the line here.
The Eagles defense has been a little Jekyll-and-Hyde. They played great two weeks ago against Miami but got lit up by Washington’s Sam Howell in Week 8. On offense, last week was the best game of Jalen Hurts’s career in terms of EPA per pass play. Hurts is dealing with a knee injury, and that meant taking checkdowns quickly, getting the ball out, and throwing it up to A.J. Brown, rather than trying to scramble and create.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are coming off of a convincing win over the Rams in a game that was over by halftime. Dak Prescott has looked sharp the past two weeks and is completing a career-best 71 percent of his passes on the season.
Will the Eagles double Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb? Will the Cowboys double Brown? Can the Eagles run the ball effectively, given Hurts’s injury? How will Philadelphia account for the Cowboys’ do-it-all defender Micah Parsons? So many fun story lines in this one. I see two pretty evenly matched teams, but I like the Eagles to cover at home.
The pick: Eagles (-3)
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
Let’s give a little credit to Josh McDaniels. He really unleashed an impressive PR campaign when he took the Raiders job in early 2022. He was a changed man! He now knew how to relate to players! He had picked up all the coaching magic from Bill Belichick and was ready to go out on his own! That disaster in Denver earlier in his career? He had learned so much from it.
C’mon, admit it. He really convinced some of you, didn’t he?
McDaniels was fired this week, ending a brief but disastrous stint with the Raiders. His winning percentage (.360) actually ended up being worse than it was when he was in Denver (.393) in 2009 and 2010. That’s two stints without a winning record and two in-season firings. As I mentioned on Extra Point Taken earlier this week, the Raiders had been a rudderless organization under McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler, who was fired along with McDaniels after an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss in Detroit. McDaniels clashed with players (again). He had no plan for how to build a team. And he’s never directed an above-average offense outside of New England. A lot of things in the NFL surprise me. The way the McDaniels era played out was not one of them.
The Giants, meanwhile, get starting quarterback Daniel Jones back for this one. I’m really tempted to go with the Raiders on account of the new coach (Antonio Pierce, who happens to be a former Giants linebacker) bump. At the very least, those Vegas players should rediscover what it’s like to play with joy now that McDaniels is gone. But I just can’t take the Raiders with Aidan O’Connell as a favorite against a Wink Martindale defense that’s been playing better recently.
The pick: Giants (+1.5)
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
Another fun game! What a turnaround for the Bengals recently. A month ago, it seemed like their season could be over after a Week 4 loss had Cincinnati at 1-3. Quarterback Joe Burrow did not look healthy, and it felt like this just might not be their year. But the Bengals rallied to beat the Cardinals and Seahawks. And last week’s win over the 49ers was easily their most complete game of the season. Burrow was dropping dimes, maneuvering in the pocket, and picking up first downs with his legs. He looked all the way back to me.
The Bills, meanwhile, have been up and down over the last month. I still believe their ceiling is high, but their defense is banged up, and playing with suspect corners against Ja’Marr Chase and Co. is less than ideal. Offensively, Josh Allen is still playing like Josh Allen, but he didn’t practice Wednesday because of a shoulder injury.
I’m trying not to overreact to one game, but after the way the Bengals played last week, I really feel like they’re about to go on a run.
The pick: Bengals (-1.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets (+3.5)
The Jets have had three wild wins this year. But last week might be impossible to top. They were down three with 28 seconds left, and the Giants had a fourth-and-1 from the Jets’ 17-yard line. Teams lose in that scenario 99 times out of 100. But this was the one! The Giants missed a 35-yard field goal, the Jets drove 58 yards to tie the game, and then won it in overtime. I’m perfectly fine with the absurdity. Jets fans deserve a little luck to go their way after all these years.
The Chargers took care of business Sunday night against the Bears to stay alive at 3-4. This Jets-Chargers game weirdly might have AFC playoff implications down the road. Both teams are in the mix for a wild-card spot.
We have a team in the Jets that is making a habit of stealing wins and a team in the Chargers that loves to give them away. I am going to make this pick and then immediately accept the reality that there’s no way the football gods are going to let me be on the correct side here.
The pick: Chargers (-3.5)
