Week 10 gave us something we’ve never seen before on an NFL Sunday: five game-winning walk-off field goals in one day! Who knew the wild Sunday would lead into an equally wild week? The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. The Browns lost quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season. And the Jets announced that they’re still sticking with Zach Wilson. Where does that leave us going into Week 11? On to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 10 record: 7-5-2
Season record: 74-71-5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
If you’re a Ravens fan panicking after your team blew yet another fourth-quarter lead in Week 10, I get it. Up 31-17 in the fourth quarter at home against the Browns, Baltimore should win that game. However, I didn’t think this one, unlike earlier losses to the Colts and Steelers this season, was so much about the Ravens doing dumb things to give the game away. They got some bad luck—Lamar Jackson had a pass deflected for a pick-six, and they couldn’t recover a fumble by Deshaun Watson on the game-winning drive—and the Browns deserve credit for making big plays in high-leverage situations. Bottom line: The Ravens are still one of the NFL’s best teams.
As for the Bengals, I think it’s fair to be concerned about their defense. They got lit up for 544 yards in last week’s loss to the Texans. The Bengals have allowed 46 pass plays of 20-plus yards on the season (second most in the league), and their defense ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. If the season ended today, the Bengals would miss the playoffs, and they have the eighth-hardest remaining schedule according to the betting markets.
Joe Burrow threw a pair of interceptions last week against Houston, but he also made a number of high-level throws. If Tyler Boyd didn’t drop a late third-down pass in the end zone, we might have spent this week talking about Burrow as the MVP favorite. I think the Ravens are the better team, but when Burrow’s healthy and in an underdog role, I pretty much always roll with Cincinnati.
The pick: Bengals (+3.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers (+3)
The Chargers scored touchdowns on their final five possessions last week against the Lions and still managed to lose. How? Because—and stop me if you’ve heard this before—the defense under Brandon Staley was a disaster. They gave up 533 yards, and based on expected points added (EPA) per drive, it was the third-worst performance by any defense in a game this season. Since Staley became the Chargers head coach in 2021 (a span of 43 games), the defense ranks 30th in EPA per drive and 28th in success rate. And they have given up 179 plays of 20-plus yards (30th). Staley was billed as a defensive innovator. Instead, he’s been a dud.
As for the Packers, I thought Jordan Love showed some progress during last week’s loss to the Steelers. Down by four points in the fourth quarter, Green Bay twice drove into the red zone with a chance to take the lead, but both possessions ended with interceptions. I’m not saying it was perfect, but at least the Packers moved the ball (399 yards), which is a change from what we had been seeing.
The best unit in this game is the Chargers offense. I’ll try not to overthink it.
The pick: Chargers (-3)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
I thought the Jaguars offense was set to make the leap this year. That has not happened. Through Week 10, they rank 19th in DVOA. At times, it feels like everything is going horizontal, like they’re consistently trying to string together 11-play drives. The protection has to be better to make it happen, but I’d love to see Jacksonville push the ball downfield more. One other issue: Trevor Lawrence is not responding well to pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, 23.1 percent of the pressures against Lawrence have turned into sacks. That’s tied for the third-worst rate of any starter, and it’s not something we saw from him in previous seasons.
The Titans failed to score a touchdown last week in a loss to the Bucs, but I think they’re going to be a competitive team most weeks. I don’t trust Jacksonville enough to cover a number this big against a Mike Vrabel–coached team.
The pick: Titans (+7)
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-12.5)
My favorite part of the Raiders’ win over the Jets on Sunday night: Every time the broadcast went to sideline reporter Melissa Stark, she had a different story from Josh Jacobs about how much the running back hated playing for Josh McDaniels. That was incredible. I couldn’t get enough. The Raiders have an interim coach and a rookie quarterback, and somehow they’re sitting at .500 going into this game.
When we last saw the Dolphins, their comeback bid against the Chiefs in Germany fell short. They’re 6-3, with losses to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs. I am still a big believer in Mike McDaniel’s team. Miami’s offense will do damage most weeks, and its defense is coming on strong. This line is a big number, but it feels like a potential blowout to me.
The pick: Dolphins (-12.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
The Panthers very clearly have the look of a team that has no answers. Three games ago, Frank Reich handed play-calling duties over to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Now Reich is going back to calling the plays himself. My read? This sure feels like Reich thinking: They might fire me at the end of the season. I might as well take the keys back and try to save my job.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are playing good ball. Since they got stomped by the 49ers in Week 5, Dallas is 3-1, and the only loss was a coin-flip game at Philadelphia. This game feels like one of the biggest talent disparities of any matchup this season. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario in which the Panthers can protect Bryce Young and their receivers get open.
The NFL is weird. Maybe Dallas commits some weird turnovers or has a special-teams mishap, and the Panthers cover. But snap to snap, everything here points to the Cowboys dominating.
The pick: Cowboys (-10.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Kyler Murray is back, and he looked good last week in Arizona’s win over the Falcons. Going back to early this past offseason, I figured the Cardinals would put Murray on ice, roll with a terrible roster in 2023, draft a quarterback in 2024, and trade Murray for additional draft capital. But they’re 2-8, and with Murray as the starter, I don’t think they’ll be bad enough to draft high enough to take Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the spring.
The Texans, meanwhile, continue to be one of the NFL’s best stories. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been incredible, but shout-out to DeMeco Ryans and the Texans coaching staff, too. In that win over the Bengals last week, they got monster performances from guys like running back Devin Singletary, wide receiver Noah Brown, and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. These are veterans who have been in the league for a while and whom any team could have signed. Stroud is definitely the biggest reason for Houston’s success, but the Texans appear to have a “more with less” coaching staff, too.
Who knew Cardinals-Texans in Week 11 would be set up to be a fun watch? I think we get a competitive game here.
The pick: Cardinals (+4.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Last week was the biggest win of the Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland, but it came at a cost. Watson suffered a new right shoulder injury and is out for the season. The Browns will go with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson in this game.
The spread here is a pretty clear indicator that the betting markets do not believe in the Steelers. Despite the fact that Pittsburgh is 6-3 and facing a rookie quarterback, they’re still underdogs.
The Steelers had a total of nine first downs the first time these two teams met. It would not surprise me at all to see the Browns defense put the team on its back and lead the way to a victory, but I just can’t roll with a rookie quarterback being favored against a team coached by Mike Tomlin. I think the Steelers look bad in this one and get outgained, but they still win. This way, I get the pick right, but everyone still gets to be mad about Pittsburgh improving to 7-3.
The pick: Steelers (+1.5)
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-9.5)
What a twist to this season: The Giants have a legitimately great shot to land the no. 1 pick in the draft.
After last week’s loss to the Cowboys, the Giants now have a minus-148 point differential. That’s not only the worst margin of any team this season, it’s the second-worst margin for any team through 10 weeks in the past 10 seasons! Only the 2019 Dolphins were worse (and they were only one point worse).
I continue to be entertained by the Commanders. Their defense stinks, but Sam Howell threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks last week. He engineered an impressive drive late that tied the game before the defense lost it for Washington.
Here’s the deal: I wanted to take the Commanders here. I actually think they’re a little undervalued. They can move the ball on most teams. But I turned 40 this year, and that has me thinking more about what I want to experience for the rest of my life. And you know what? Just once, I need to see what it feels like to take Tommy DeVito on the road. Give me the Giants.
The pick: Giants (+9.5)
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Justin Fields is expected to return for this game, but his days as the Bears starter are almost certainly numbered. The Bears own the Panthers’ first-round pick, and barring an unforeseen Carolina resurgence, that pick will likely be no. 1 or 2 overall. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Bears pass on a quarterback with a premium pick like that. Maybe if Fields balls out down the stretch and the Bears decide they don’t love Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. But again, that seems far-fetched. More likely? The Bears trade Fields in the offseason.
As for the Lions, I continue to love how they play and how Dan Campbell coaches. Last week against the Chargers, with the game tied at 38 and 1:47 remaining, Detroit faced a fourth-and-2 from the Los Angeles 26-yard line. Most coaches would choose to kick the field goal there, but Campbell didn’t want the Chargers offense to have a chance to tie or win the game, so he went for it. Jared Goff converted, the Lions ran more clock, and they kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired. It’s precisely the type of decision that gets crushed if it doesn’t work out. But Campbell doesn’t care about that. He’s comfortable in his own skin and makes decisions based solely on what gives his team the best chance to win. You love to see it!
It’s possible that Fields gives the Bears some juice, but I trust this Lions offense pretty much every week, and specifically at home.
The pick: Lions (-8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
My favorite subplot of the 2023 season: coordinators moving from the booth to the sideline to solve their problems. It works every time! The latest example is 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. The Niners defense got lit up in losses to the Vikings and the Bengals before their bye. Then Wilks moved to the sideline last week, and poof: They completely shut down the Jaguars to break a three-game losing streak. The 49ers are healthy on offense, and the Chase Young addition has already paid off on defense. They again look like one of the NFL’s most complete teams.
How do we feel about 2023 NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers? I’m starting to think it could happen. Tampa is a half game back of the first-place Saints. The Bucs still have four division games left, including two against the Panthers. I think they get stomped here, but in a pretty big upset, Tampa is going to be playing relevant games in December.
The pick: 49ers (-11.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7)
Every year, there’s a team that I can’t give up on, and the loyalty burns me in this picks column. This year, that team is the Bills. Just last week, I was saying not to bury them, that they’d turn things around. Then they went out on Monday night and laid an egg in a loss to the Broncos. As long as Josh Allen is the Bills quarterback, I’ll believe they have a chance of getting hot, but they are showing every sign of a franchise in disarray. Last week, they had the dreaded players-only meeting. This week, Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Don’t get me wrong, the offense hasn’t been great. But here’s where they rank in various advanced metrics:
Bills Offense
It’s just hard to believe that the OC change (it’ll now be Joe Brady calling plays for Allen and Co.) is going to give the Bills a real boost.
As for the Jets, things aren’t much better. They’ve gone 11 straight quarters without scoring an offensive touchdown.
Can I be honest with you all for a moment? Are we in a safe space? OK, thank you. I just need an emotional hedge here. The Bills have burned me week after week. I’m tired of sticking up for them only to be let down. It’s like promising the teacher your kid’s going to start behaving right, and then as soon as you leave the classroom, he launches a spitball at the chalkboard. I can’t take it anymore. So for that reason, I’ll just go ahead and take the Jets. Thank you for hearing me out. And let’s go … Zach Wilson? Man, this feels dirty. But this is my process.
The pick: Jets (+7)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+1)
The Rams are expected to get quarterback Matthew Stafford back after a one-game absence because of a thumb injury. It’s possible that the injury negatively affects Stafford and he sprays passes all over the place. But it’s also possible that the Rams emerge as a frisky team in the next two months. I still believe in this passing offense when Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua are on the field together. In a Week 1 win over the Seahawks, the Rams piled up 426 yards and 27 first downs. A similar performance is not out of the question this week.
The Seahawks are 6-3, but I can’t say I fully trust them. Washington QB Sam Howell threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle last week. That game was tied with 52 seconds left before Geno Smith engineered the game-winning drive. The Rams have given the Seahawks trouble in the past. I think that continues here.
The pick: Rams (+1)
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
This current version of the Broncos is more like what I expected to see from Sean Payton this season. They’re not great, but they’re competitive; they know their strengths and weaknesses, and they don’t beat themselves.
As for the Vikings, the Joshua Dobbs fairy tale continued last week with a win over the Saints. And how about defensive coordinator Brian Flores? He’s coaching a group that’s overperforming its talent. The Vikings defense is all the way up to eighth in defensive DVOA.
I’ve flip-flopped on this one roughly 400 times, but give me Denver.
The pick: Broncos (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
A couple of things stood out when rewatching last season’s Super Bowl film:
- Jalen Hurts was incredible in that game. The Eagles offensive coaches didn’t really win the game-plan battle against the Chiefs. Hurts (with help from guys like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) just kind of put the offense on his back and made high-degree-of-difficulty plays over and over and over again. His one fumble was returned for a touchdown. But that game wouldn’t have been close without Hurts being an A-plus star the rest of the night.
- The Chiefs offensive coaches pantsed the Eagles defensive coaches. Patrick Mahomes made some big plays with his legs, but for the most part, he didn’t have to sweat in that game. He knew what was coming and how to attack it. The Chiefs have played 103 games with Mahomes as their starter. That Super Bowl performance ranked seventh among that sample in terms of offensive success rate.
Both teams are different now than they were in February. The Eagles lost defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and replaced him with Sean Desai. Their secondary has been hit hard with injuries, and Dak Prescott lit them up a couple of weeks ago. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have their best defense and their worst offense of the Mahomes era. It’ll be interesting to see whether that remains true down the stretch or whether the offense shows more juice than it has so far.
I think we get a classic, much like the Super Bowl was, where Mahomes and Hurts exchange blow after blow. But Andy Reid has been so good after a bye, and I need to see more from this Eagles defense before I trust them in a spot like this.
The pick: Chiefs (-2.5)
