If you were bored by the NBA trade deadline, if you found yourself yawning through the frenetic shuffling of second-tier players and second-round picks and it all felt sort of anticlimactic and disappointing, well, blame James Harden. And Kevin Durant. And Kyrie Irving. Or to put it more simply: Just blame the Brooklyn Nets.
In January 2021, Harden forced his way from Houston to Brooklyn—a deal that came well before the deadline (March 25, due to a late start to the season), but by virtue of the calendar had the feel of a midseason blockbuster. In February 2022, Harden forced a trade to Philadelphia, in a swap for former All-NBA guard Ben Simmons, just hours before the February 10 deadline. And in February 2023, it was Irving and Durant, each demanding trades out of Brooklyn at the eleventh hour.
That’s three straight years in which one or more certified superstars bounced in the New Year’s–to-Valentine’s window, scrambling the NBA’s balance of power. To be clear: This isn’t normal! Not even in this era of NBA musical chairs, when stars swap places seemingly every five minutes.
Before Harden, no marquee player had moved at the deadline since 2017, when DeMarcus Cousins was shipped from Sacramento to New Orleans. And Cousins was the first since 2011, when Carmelo Anthony (Denver to New York) and Deron Williams (Utah to New Jersey) were sent packing in the final days of trade season.
So if your expectations were raised unreasonably this year and your mood was soured by a humdrum string of transactions—18 trades in the final 26 hours, though none involving a marquee player—you can again blame James Harden. In fact, blame him twice, because Harden did force another trade this season, but this time got dealt way back at the end of October, to the Clippers, robbing us of any February drama. (Author’s note: This is just a rhetorical device. We’re not literally blaming James Harden for anything. Please stand down, Beardbots.)
And there were other significant (if not earth-shattering) deals this season—they just came particularly early, with the Knicks acquiring OG Anunoby in December and the Pacers (Pascal Siakam) and Heat (Terry Rozier) making deals in January.
For most teams, in most years, the trade deadline is a time for minor tweaks, not seismic overhauls. Some teams are genuinely fortifying for the stretch run—e.g., the Knicks got Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, or the Timberwolves grabbed Monte Morris. But much of the activity was about bookkeeping—shedding bad contracts, ducking the luxury tax, and clearing payroll for next season. (Twelve players were waived immediately after they were acquired last week, which has to be some sort of record.) The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, adopted last summer, includes countless new penalties and restrictions on the high-spending teams, which means everyone is scrambling to fix their spreadsheets before the summer.
As one Western Conference executive put it, the trade deadline is for repairs and panic moves, while the summer is for “foundational” decisions. As another pointed out, the February market is for second-round picks (18 changed hands last week), while firsts are typically reserved for July. If the trade deadline had an emcee, it would be Mark Tatum, not Adam Silver.
Widespread parity is partly to blame, leaving the league with fewer midseason sellers. The play-in tournament is a factor, too, with more teams motivated to win down the stretch of the season. All of which is understandable, though it does leave us yearning for some hot-stove action to warm us through these cold winter months.
But oh, those summer nights … “There will be a lot of parts moved this offseason,” one Eastern Conference executive predicted. “There’s going to be some options, some high-level guys that ask to get moved.”
Thus begins speculation season, with every front office trying to forecast which stars will become available this offseason, based on the usual forces: player/team discontent, playoff flameouts, and financial crunches. Emphasis here should be on the “speculation” part. All of these execs are paid to scour the league for talent and to be ready to pounce the moment a star hits the market. It’s a gossipy league; teams are generally aware of their rivals’ dysfunction and will plan accordingly. That doesn’t mean that any of what follows here will actually come to pass. It just means, well, these are the names that team execs are keeping an eye on … just in case.
Start with LeBron James, because everything in this era must start with LeBron James, and because (a) the Lakers are underachieving and (b) James can opt out of his contract this summer. No one expects James to leave Los Angeles, but it’s something teams are monitoring because James has a history of team hopping and, even at age 39, he can still help a contender. (Also, if James were to leave, rivals figure, it might put Anthony Davis in play, too.)
It’s more likely that the Lakers will be the ones pursuing a younger star to complement James and Davis. Might that be Atlanta’s Trae Young? “He’s available,” said a second Eastern Conference exec. “I think they would love to trade Trae,” a Western Conference exec said of the Hawks, who are 24-30 and again slotted for the play-in tournament.
One exec said Atlanta discussed a potential Young trade with San Antonio before last week’s deadline. The Hawks were also well known to be shopping Dejounte Murray, their other star guard, before the deadline, but never found a deal they liked. It’s considered a near certainty that they will part with one, or both, this summer.
The playoffs could also have a major impact on the summer market, forcing underachievers to consider more drastic moves. Call this the Crash-and-Burn Theory. And there are a lot of potential candidates here.
If the Cleveland Cavaliers (currently second in the East) flame out in the first round again, will Donovan Mitchell ask out? Or if Mitchell, slated for free agency in 2025, balks at a contract extension (as rivals expect), will the Cavs preemptively trade him? “There’s no doubt he’s leaving once his contract ends,” said the second Eastern Conference exec, echoing a belief held by many around the league.
The Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win the East, with a star-studded lineup and a massive payroll—all of which could spell trouble if they stumble again in the spring. It’s going to be challenging to keep Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White in perpetuity, even if they were to win the title. “Boston has decisions to make,” said another Eastern Conference exec. “They’re gonna have to figure out who’s expendable and who’s not.”
Does that mean shedding a talented role player like Holiday? Or would the Celtics preserve their depth and instead see what they can get for Brown, their no. 2 star? Rivals have been wondering about his fate from the moment he signed a five-year, $304 million extension in July.
“I think that’s realistic,” the first Western Conference exec said of a Brown trade. “Can you get 80 percent of Jaylen by keeping Derrick White and replacing Jaylen with a $20 million player instead of a $40 million player?”
No one is predicting Brown will be moved this summer—particularly with Boston in first place—but the Celtics will eventually have to confront the financial realities of the new CBA. And if they did put Brown on the market? “Jaylen would set the record for the biggest return,” the other Western Conference exec said, adding, “It should be a Durant-type deal”—meaning multiple first-round picks and swaps, plus high-level rotation players; Brown might not have Durant’s résumé, but he’s also eight years younger.
The Durant trade was the ultimate all-in move—which places the Suns firmly on Crash-and-Burn watch. Phoenix has one of the league’s highest payrolls, most of it devoted to Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, with new team owner Mat Ishbia betting he can spend his way to a title. But it all depends on the health, longevity, and mood swings of three fragile stars, most notably a 35-year-old Durant, who has changed teams three times since 2019. What if the Suns—currently 32-22 and fifth in the West—get bounced in the first round?
“[Durant] for sure looks around,” said the second Eastern Conference exec. “Durant always has a wandering eye.” And if Durant left, the GM said, Booker would have to consider his options, too.
There’s also pressure in Milwaukee (see: the Bucks firing their coach after a 30-13 start) on the heels of the Damian Lillard blockbuster last summer, and in Philadelphia, in the wake of the soured Harden experiment. Both franchises feature recent MVPs and a recent history of postseason flops. No one expects Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid to ask out, even if things go badly again this spring, but rivals are keeping an eye on both, anyway (and on Lillard).
There’s less of a championship-or-bust feel in Dallas, but there’s surely an urgency to make a deep playoff run, to reassure Luka Doncic that the Mavericks can contend in the near future. A playoff flop probably wouldn’t put Doncic in play, but it could make Dallas reconsider its commitment to Irving.
The perennially hyped, perennially hurt Clippers have been crashing and burning nearly every postseason, but few execs expect a breakup if they flop again this spring. The franchise already signed Kawhi Leonard to an extension and is expected to go all out to keep Paul George and Harden regardless of how they fare in the playoffs because the Clippers are moving into a new $2 billion arena in Inglewood next season.
More than one executive also listed the Miami Heat as a potential candidate for a shake-up, given Jimmy Butler’s age (35 in September) and mileage. The Chicago Bulls, who worked hard to unload Zach LaVine before he got hurt, will surely try again.
And then there are the financial time bombs to consider.
The Minnesota Timberwolves—now leading the West at 37-16—have soaring expectations and a soaring payroll that will almost certainly have to be reduced soon to avoid a massive luxury-tax bill under the new CBA. The most likely solution? A trade of Karl-Anthony Towns. “I think it happens this summer,” said one Western Conference exec.
“How much tax are they going to pay when [Anthony Edwards’s] extension kicks in and KAT’s extension jumps?” said an Eastern Conference exec.
The same goes for the rising New Orleans Pelicans, who have three pricey stars and a surplus of talented young players who will be getting big raises soon—a major strain for a small-market team that’s allergic to paying the luxury tax. “New Orleans has to make a decision between Zion [Williamson] and [Brandon] Ingram,” said an Eastern Conference exec. “I think that happens this summer.”
It will be awhile before we get a clearer picture on any of this, before we can separate speculation from rumor and rumor from reality. But we do already know which teams are poised to strike: The Knicks, Nets, Jazz, Thunder, and Spurs have all been stockpiling first-round picks, in hopes of poaching the next wayward superstar. The Sixers, the rare contender with salary-cap room, will be aggressively shopping for a third star. The Lakers and Warriors desperately need to add talent around their aging cores. The Pistons desperately need to do ... something, anything … and will have ample cap room to chase … erm, someone.
There are no certainties in today’s NBA, but this much we know: There will always be disillusioned stars demanding trades. Which means the next blockbuster is never far off. And a semi-quiet February can mean only a very noisy July.
