Last week in the NBA was important for two related reasons. The first came on Monday, February 12, when Victor Wembanyama, the league leader in blocks, recorded a 27-point, 14-rebound, 10-block triple-double in Toronto. The second came on Saturday: the 30th anniversary of the NBA’s last quadruple-double, recorded by David Robinson.
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It shouldn’t take an advanced statistician to connect those two factoids. The quadruple-double is among the rarest statistical accomplishments in NBA history, with only four officially on record. (There would probably be more, from the likes of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, had the NBA started recording blocks and steals before the 1973-74 season.)
- Nate Thurmond in 1974: 22 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and 12 blocks
- Alvin Robertson in 1986: 20 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals
- Hakeem Olajuwon in 1990: 18 points, 16 rebounds, 11 blocks, and 10 assists
- David Robinson in 1994: 34 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 blocks
We are currently witnessing the greatest triple-double boom in NBA history. Before 2016-17, the highest leaguewide triple-double total in any season was 78, back in 1988-89. But in each of the past seven seasons, the NBA has reached triple digits in triple-doubles, and it’s easily on pace to continue that streak in 2023-24.
Yet even amid this context, the NBA’s fifth quadruple-double still hasn’t emerged. But Wembanyama has emerged—not only as the best overall prospect in decades, but also as the best candidate in decades to match Robinson, his predecessor as a no. 1 pick for the Spurs.
A quadruple-double candidate requires the skill of a specialist (with the ability to nab 10 blocks or steals in a game) in the body of a generalist (with the talent and flexibility to stuff the rest of the stat sheet). Alongside all his other hyperbolic traits, just half a season into his career, Wembanyama already looks the part.
Quadruple-doubles were always scarce, but now they’re even more unlikely because of a leaguewide decline in outlier defensive performances. From 1985-86 through 1999-2000, at least three players averaged three-plus blocks per game in every season but one. But since then, there have never been more than two such players in a season; since 2005-06, there’s never been more than one.
A reduction in block averages naturally corresponds with a reduction in extreme single-game performances, which means a decrease in the frequency of already rare quadruple-double opportunities. There have been only 35 games in the 21st century in which a player recorded double-digit blocks or steals—only about 1.5 per season.
And the vast majority of those games came from defensive specialists with little chance of accruing the necessary statistics in the “standard” triple-double categories to reach a quadruple-double. Most players capable of 10 steals in a game are small guards like T.J. McConnell who would struggle to reach 10 rebounds; most players capable of 10 blocks are tall centers like Hassan Whiteside who have never come close to double-digit assists in any game in their careers.
Analyzing the top individual candidates to achieve a quadruple-double—before Wembanyama entered the league, at least—underscores the inherent improbability of such an accomplishment.
Anthony Davis seems like a great choice: He has a 10-block game on his résumé and is a far more skilled offensive player than Whiteside. Yet even the Lakers center doesn’t have the ideal all-around game to regularly reach the double-digit assist total he’d need for a quadruple-double. In 712 career regular-season games, he’s tallied 10-plus assists just twice, meaning it’s very slim odds that he would have combined those performances with his 10-block outburst. Conversely, Davis has 30 games with at least six blocks in his career, and he’s surpassed five assists in just one of those 30 contests:
Davis does have three triple-doubles in his career, including two with 11 assists apiece this season. But while he’s now passing more, Davis might no longer have the same ceiling for blocks that he did as a younger player: The now-30-year-old hasn’t reached eight blocks in a game since January 2020.
Draymond Green is another candidate in his 30s. Green is infamously the only player in league history to record a non-points triple-double, when he tallied four points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals in a win over the Grizzlies back in 2017. Had Green only shot the ball more in that game, he would have secured a quadruple-double.
Yet Green also seems unlikely to recapture that magic in a single game again. He hasn’t reached eight blocks or steals in any game since that night in Memphis seven years ago.
A younger option is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an offensive savant who doubles as the NBA’s steals leader this season. He might be the best non-Wembanyama option for a quadruple-double in the league. Yet at least for now, SGA has never surpassed seven steals (or four blocks) in any game, which means he’s never come that close to the total he’d need.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s statistics emphasize the particular difficulty of approaching a quadruple-double via the steals route, instead of with blocks. An average NBA game contains more steals than blocks, but steals are more evenly distributed across a roster while blocks are more concentrated among the big men protecting the paint. SGA is the only qualified player this season averaging at least two steals per game, while eight players are averaging at least two blocks.
Once again, these averages track with extreme single-game stats. In the 21st century, there have been six times as many 10-block games as 10-steal games (30 versus five) and about five times as many nine-block games as nine-steal games.
In the interest of completeness, let’s quickly run through 10 more top active candidates for a quadruple-double, beyond Davis, Green, and Gilgeous-Alexander: the seven active triple-double leaders plus three of the league’s brightest two-way stars. Here are their career single-game highs in blocks and steals:
- Russell Westbrook: four blocks, eight steals (but no more than five since he left the Thunder)
- Nikola Jokic: five blocks, seven steals
- LeBron James: five blocks, seven steals
- James Harden: five blocks, eight steals (but no more than five since he left the Rockets)
- Luka Doncic: four blocks, five steals
- Domantas Sabonis: four blocks, five steals
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: seven blocks, five steals
- Joel Embiid: seven blocks, five steals
- Jimmy Butler: five blocks, seven steals
- Bam Adebayo: six blocks, six steals
Aside from Westbrook and Harden, who are well past their physical peaks, none of these 10 players have ever collected eight blocks or steals in a game. Even the list’s excellent defenders have never come close to double digits in either category.
The likes of Giannis and Adebayo or younger stat stuffers like Scottie Barnes and Jalen Johnson might be decent bets for 10 blocks and steals in a game combined, and thus a five-by-five night—five each of points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals—at some point. (Five-by-fives occur once every few years, on average, though the last was Jusuf Nurkic’s in 2019.) But they’re not specialized enough to reach 10 blocks or steals alone.
Wembanyama, however, clearly is. He’s already shown proof of concept, with 10 blocks in a game and regularly high totals despite limited minutes in many more. Convert all his box scores to a per-36-minute basis, and in just 49 career games, the no. 1 pick would have already reached nine blocks or steals four times, or once per month:
Victor Wembanyama’s High-Volume Block and Steal Games
It’s possible that Wembanyama already missed his best chance at a quadruple-double, when he tallied only five assists against the Raptors last week. It’s not a guarantee that a rookie who swats 10 shots in a game will do so again.
Rookies With 10 Blocks in a Game
But Wembanyama looks a lot more like Robinson and Dikembe Mutombo than Josh Smith. Barring injury, it would frankly be a surprise if he never reached 10 blocks again. So his quest for a quadruple-double is merely a matter of timing those blocks alongside a 10-assist game.
Once more, Wembanyama has already proved this ability, as he secured a conventional triple-double—with 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in only 21 minutes in Detroit—a month before his block-aided one. Wembanyama’s development as a passer separates him from Chet Holmgren, another strong rookie candidate to post outlier block totals. Holmgren already has a game with eight blocks and two with seven blocks; he seems due for double digits at some point. But where Wembanyama is afforded more responsibility to initiate plays in San Antonio, Holmgren primarily finishes plays in Oklahoma City, where he shares the court with much better guards.
To be fair, the two rookie centers are separated by only 0.5 assists per game. But there’s a much larger gap between Wembanyama and Holmgren in potential assists, per NBA Advanced Stats—which suggests that an improvement in teammates who convert his passes into buckets could give Wembanyama a much bigger boost in assists.
Rookie of the Year Candidates’ Passing
In theory, we might have to wait a little while for the Spurs roster around Wembanyama to improve. But at his current trajectory, a legitimate quadruple-double attempt might not be far off. He’s already followed Robinson in a couple of respects. Why not add another to his list and budding legacy?
