The NFL Quarterback Carousel Is Officially in Motion. Which Players Will Wind Up Where?
Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield are already off the board, signing with the Steelers and re-signing with the Bucs, respectively. But where will Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and other QBs land? And what will their moves mean for the market overall?
The first domino of the NFL’s offseason quarterback carousel fell on Sunday morning, and it wasn’t a move many saw coming: The Patriots traded Mac Jones to Jacksonville for a sixth-round pick. That’s an AI-generated headline. You could convince me teams are using ChatGPT to come up with trade ideas now.
But take a step back and look at how the league’s view on quarterbacks has evolved over the past five years, and the Jones trade starts to feel less random. Backup quarterback has become a valuable spot on the roster. We’ve seen a record number of quarterbacks make starts over the past two NFL seasons, and as a result, the trade value of players of that caliber has spiked. Jones isn’t just a plan B in case Trevor Lawrence gets hurt. He’s an investment for Jacksonville. If Lawrence misses time and Jones plays well in relief—or even just plays well in the preseason—the Jaguars will have a valuable trade chip at their disposal. The Cowboys made a similar investment last year in Jones’s draft classmate Trey Lance. It’s only a matter of time before Justin Fields, the fourth quarterback selected in 2021, gets flipped for draft picks. And the Jets have given Zach Wilson, the second pick in that draft, permission to seek a trade.
Draft busts now have the potential to gain second chances through these types of deals. Just look at Baker Mayfield, who was swapped for a day-three pick after flaming out with the Browns and now, after playing for four teams in three years, has earned a nine-figure contract with Tampa Bay.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman was mocked for calling Philly a “quarterback factory” after drafting Jalen Hurts in 2020 while having Carson Wentz on the roster, but Philadelphia has shown the rest of the league how to extract value out of backup quarterbacks. Since Roseman first took over as GM in 2010, the Eagles have traded three quarterbacks for first- and second-round picks: Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz, and Kevin Kolb. No team has gotten more value from its backup spot in recent seasons, and the quarterback-factory model is now standard across the league. Teams have realized that a QB no longer has to start to be an asset. And while this is by no means a new idea—Green Bay’s QB factory has been operational since the 1990s—it is more widespread now.
This trend has created a more robust offseason market at all levels of the position. We’ve seen blockbuster quarterback trades in each of the past three years—Matthew Stafford to the Rams, Russell Wilson to the Broncos, and Aaron Rodgers to the Jets—and we could see another Pro Bowl–level QB on the move this offseason with Kirk Cousins seemingly headed for free agency. Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler, has already found a new job, signing a one-year pact with the Steelers for the league minimum. Pittsburgh will be paying $1.2 million for his services in 2024. And while Wilson is clearly past his best, that’s quite the bargain for an average (to below-average) starting quarterback—assuming he can beat out Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph for the job. It’s harder than ever to find an elite quarterback these days, but you can find some decent options on the bottom shelf.
Wilson was available for a reason. He’s coming off a season in which he ranked 25th in the NFL in expected points added per dropback and was benched for Jarrett Stidham. The athleticism and arm talent that made his chaotic style work in the past have waned. He’s still fairly accurate and risk-averse, but his inconsistency in reading the field from the pocket stands out more now that he isn’t as much of a mobile threat. Wilson is a league-average quarterback on his best days, but with the right supporting cast, that’s enough for a playoff push. After all, he still has some magic left in him.
Last year was Wilson’s best season throwing under pressure in quite a while. He hadn’t been that productive on pressured throws made on the run since 2019—the last time he was widely viewed as an elite quarterback.
Russell Wilson on Scramble Throws, Since 2018 (Next Gen Stats)
The Steelers aren’t just throwing money away. Wilson gives them a legitimate shot at making it back to the playoffs after last season’s surprising run to the wild-card round.
There’s already been plenty of movement in the quarterback market, but there’s still a lot left to sort out. With Wilson signing with the Steelers, seven teams are squarely in the hunt for a quarterback: Chicago, Washington, New England, Atlanta, Denver, Las Vegas, and Minnesota (assuming Cousins makes it to free agency). Incoming rookies—Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels—will claim three of those jobs, and J.J. McCarthy could steal a fourth if the growing hype around him is real. But there will undoubtedly be a number of seats open for quarterbacks via the trade and free agency markets.
Let’s try to identify where those QBs might be headed in 2024 and the impact those moves will have on the NFL landscape.
Kirk Cousins
We’re just days away from learning where Cousins will play in 2024. On March 13, his contract will self-destruct, leaving Minnesota with a $28.5 million cap charge and allowing him to hit the open market. And if the Vikings and Cousins don’t hammer out an extension by then, all the signs point to the 35-year-old heading to Atlanta, where Cousins has familial ties—his wife is from the area and he lived there during his last free agency experience in 2018—and schematic ties, with Zac Robinson, a Sean McVay acolyte like Kevin O’Connell, taking over as Falcons offensive coordinator.
Outside of an unlikely reunion with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, Atlanta would be a best-case scenario for Cousins. In addition to the schematic familiarity, he’d get to work with an ascending receiver in Drake London, a matchup headache at tight end in Kyle Pitts, and a potential superstar in running back Bijan Robinson. The offensive line underperformed in Arthur Smith’s demanding scheme last season, but it could flourish under Zac Robinson. With an adult at QB, the Falcons have the ingredients for a top-10 offense. That could be enough to win a bad division.
But that assumes that Cousins fully recovers from the Achilles injury that ended his 2023 season in Week 8. If he can regain the form he had before the injury, Cousins will be a fringe top-10 quarterback. His numbers dipped as Minnesota’s offense evolved and put more strain on the quarterback, but Cousins has been a dynamic player over the past two years, taking more chances on downfield throws and playing more out of structure. He’s been willing to create when a play breaks down—something he focused on adding to his game during last offseason. But it’s impossible to say how rehabbing from a major Achilles injury could affect that progress.
Atlanta has plenty of cap space to burn and no other viable options. Sure, spending upward of $40 million on a 30-something quarterback who has few meaningful wins on his résumé is a risk, but barring another injury, getting a bona fide starter would give the Falcons team, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017, a considerably high floor. It would also allow Atlanta to use the eighth overall pick on another skilled offensive player or a foundational piece for Raheem Morris’s defense. Cutting the check for Cousins would make the rest of Atlanta’s offseason less complicated.
Most likely destination: Atlanta
Impact: If Cousins is healthy and Morris can get the defense up and running in year one, this team has the bones of a fringe contender in a wide-open NFC. Atlanta has cap space to spend and five top-80 picks in this year’s draft. Even with a productive offseason, the Falcons would still fall behind Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, and San Francisco in the conference pecking order, but they’d be the clear favorite to win the NFC South.
Justin Fields
We’ve seen a lot of Justin Fields over the past three seasons, so it’s easy to forget how little football he’s actually played up to this point in his career. He just turned 25 last week. Going back to college, he’s attempted 1,576 passes at the two highest levels of the sport. Compare that to Bo Nix, who is widely viewed as a fringe first-round prospect in this year’s draft, is only 11 months younger than Fields, and has attempted 1,936 passes since starting college—360 more than Chicago’s lame-duck QB. In terms of quarterback development, Fields is still a baby—and a talented one at that. And while it makes sense for the Bears to move off of the 2021 first-rounder to take Caleb Williams, Fields should probably be a hotter commodity than he seems to be at the moment.
He can make plays like this with his legs …
And make throws like this with his arm …
I’d use a second-round pick on a quarterback prospect who could do those things. And if the rumors are true and the trade market for Fields is cooler than Chicago anticipated, the asking price could be even lower than that. ESPN’s Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler reported over the weekend that Chicago “no longer seems likely” to get a second-round pick for Fields. If a QB-needy team doesn’t bite, a smart team could burn a draft pick to add Fields as a backup and developmental project. Baltimore or Philadelphia could use a mobile threat behind Jackson and Hurts, and it would be fascinating to see where Fields’s game could go under McVay or Shanahan. But, really, teams like Pittsburgh or Tennessee should be jumping at the chance to add a talent like Fields to their underwhelming quarterback competitions if the price isn’t too steep.
Most likely destination: Las Vegas
Impact: Bears GM Ryan Poles has said he wants to deal Fields early in the offseason, but Chicago may have to wait until after the other free agency dominoes—Cousins, specifically—fall before making a deal. Las Vegas doesn’t look like a destination for Kirk, so it could be the team left without a starting quarterback when the first wave of free agency ends—no offense to Aidan O’Connell. First-year Raiders GM Tom Telesco is reportedly looking for a big name at quarterback, and Fields could be the only option left that fits the bill. Wilson is the other, but Telesco, the former Chargers general manager, has seen plenty of Wilson over the past two seasons and should know better. Fields played under new Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy in Chicago, so the two would be able to pick up right where they left off in his development.
Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo
With Sam Darnold’s deal up in San Francisco, the 49ers backup job is open! That’s great news for all the statuesque play-action merchants, who should be fighting over the chance to back up Brock Purdy in that Death Star offense. A return to Shanahan’s bench could be awkward for Garoppolo, but these two belong together. And if Purdy misses any time, we know Garoppolo can steer this thing in the right direction. Tannehill would also be a good fit in San Francisco. He’s fearless in the pocket and isn’t afraid to test tight windows over the middle. Tannehill can’t move like Purdy, but he can make the same stationary throws as the 49ers starter. If San Francisco prefers a more athletic backup, it could bring back Darnold or gauge Drew Lock’s interest in taking the backup job.
Whichever quarterback gets that job should consider themselves lucky. The rest are destined for a mentor role on a team that drafts a quarterback in the first round or, worse: getting screamed at by Sean Payton all season after Denver’s offense inevitably collapses. If Jimmy G thought playing for Shanahan was rough …
Most likely destination(s): San Francisco, Minnesota, or Washington
Impact: We’ve probably seen the last of Garoppolo and Tannehill as viable starting options, so it’s unlikely either will make a huge difference for new teams in 2024.
