When the New York Giants drafted Saquon Barkley out of Penn State with the second pick in 2018, then–general manager Dave Gettleman explained his rationale at a post-draft press conference. It was simple: Barkley was Gettleman’s highest-ranked college prospect since he evaluated Peyton Manning in 1998. “[Saquon] is the unanimous best player in the draft,” Gettleman said, “He was touched by the hand of God.” Gettleman did not care about the idea of positional value. “I think it’s a crock,” Gettleman said. “At the end of the day, a great player is a great player.”
Six years, three head coaches, one ACL tear, 5,211 rushing yards, 35 touchdowns, and just one playoff win later, the Giants watched that great player leave just a few hours into the tampering period of free agency on Monday, as Barkley agreed to sign with their NFC East rival the Philadelphia Eagles. Sometime after 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Barkley will sign a three-year contract worth just under $38 million, or roughly $12.5 million per year—with $26 million guaranteed at signing, per ESPN. Functionally speaking, Barkley’s deal is for two years and $26 million, plus a team option for a third season. It’s a slight raise from what he made last season in New York, after he received the franchise tag, and more than what he would have made had the Giants tagged him a second time.
New York letting Barkley walk is just the latest example of NFL teams treating running backs like Leo DiCaprio treats girlfriends: As soon as they turn 27 years old, it’s time to start looking for someone younger. Free agency is usually a time when fans get mad at players for abandoning them. This week was the opposite, as a bunch of NFL teams told ridiculously popular and productive franchise icons to kick rocks. More than a quarter of the NFL’s starting running backs have changed teams, including Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, and Josh Jacobs. Joe Mixon became expendable in Cincinnati after the Bengals agreed to sign Zack Moss, a slightly younger and marginally cheaper back.
From the perspective of the teams, moving on from these aging players is probably the right thing to do. But doing the right thing sucks. Try explaining to a 9-year-old who believes Derrick Henry is a God that, actually, Derrick Henry is a declining asset.
It’s not hard to understand why teams are letting these guys go. Running backs have been one of the worst investments in football over the past 15 years. They are easily injured and easily replaced. Rushing production is largely a function of blocking, meaning it makes more sense to invest in a good offensive line than a good runner. That is why running backs are paid less than every position except for long snappers and punters. The last 15 Super Bowl teams have paid their leading rusher an average of under $1.4 million. All of this is why it has become popular in the football analytics community to say, “Running backs don’t matter.” The rational part of my brain understands this. But the emotional, tribalistic lizard part of my brain is the one that likes football, and that is the part of my brain that fell in love with Barkley. Perhaps running backs don’t matter that much in the sport, but Barkley mattered to me.
In the locker room, Saquon was a team captain who set the bar for work ethic. “Your best player,” former Knicks head coach Jeff Van Gundy once said, “has to set a tone of intolerance for anything that gets in the way of winning.” For the Giants, that guy was Saquon. Off the field, Saquon had a Derek Jeter–esque run of being mega-famous in New York while having no bad press. In an era when athletes are pilloried for having no loyalty and hopping from team to team like mercenaries, Barkley, who was born in the Bronx, pleaded to stay. “I’ve mentioned before that I wanted to be a Giant for life,” Barkley told SNY in January. “That was a goal of mine when I got drafted. I wanted to leave a legacy here, but it’s out of my control. I truly have no say.”
Saquon was also New York’s most electric player for five years. When Barkley won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2018, he had eight plays of 50-plus yards, tied for the most in a single season for any player in the 21st century (not any rookie—any player). As much as any other running back, Barkley was a home run hitter, and along with Odell Beckham Jr., Barkley was one of the two most explosive Giants players of the past 15 years. I now have to explain to my mom why the Giants replaced Saquon with Devin Singletary.
New York let Barkley’s contract lapse without a serious offer for him to stay. But he wasn’t single for long. The Eagles swooping in is soul-crushing to me as a Giants fan, but fascinating as an observer. Saquon essentially got a contract that’s similar to the one that Nick Chubb received from the Browns three years ago, but the salary cap is more than a third higher than when Chubb signed (growing from roughly $180 million to $255.4 million). Chubb was also negotiating with one team, while Saquon was a free agent with options. That the Eagles’ offer was probably the highest he could get is yet more evidence that running back value has decreased (in proportion to the salary cap) over the past few years.
Perhaps the Eagles feel Barkley can rediscover the explosiveness that he lost after a high ankle sprain in 2019 and torn ACL in 2020. They might be right to zig as everyone else zags. The Eagles are signing a top-five running back for less money than the Jaguars are going to give former Bills receiver Gabe Davis ($39 million over three years).
The Giants decided to spend their money on other positions. Hours after losing Barkley, New York traded a second- and a fifth-round pick for Panthers pass rusher Brian Burns and promptly signed Burns to a deal that is functionally $90 million over three years, plus two team-option years after that. Burns is just 25 years old. He plays a premium position. The Giants chose to pay Burns $28 million per year instead of paying both Barkley and safety Xavier McKinney (who will get about $17 million from the Packers), essentially choosing one premium position over two more replaceable ones. (Singletary, who agreed to his new three-year contract with the Giants on Monday, will make an average of $5.5 million but will count for just $3.75 million toward the Giants’ 2024 cap.)
This sort of calculus has been happening all over the league. The Packers chose to sign Jacobs to essentially a one-year contract over keeping Jones on a multiyear, cap-draining contract. Green Bay asked Jones to take a 50 percent pay cut, according to The Athletic, and when Jones refused, Green Bay cut him late enough into free agency that a few of the running back vacancies had already been filled. (Jones on Tuesday agreed to a one-year deal with the Vikings, a dagger to Packers fans who loved him.) Incredibly, after moving on from Jones, the only Packers player older than 28 is pass rusher Preston Smith. The Bengals, meanwhile, squeezed Mixon to take less money last year, then traded him to Houston for a seventh-round pick after getting Moss for less money.
Henry is the oldest of the bunch at 30—he is essentially the second-oldest running back in the NFL who got significant carries in 2023 (Miami’s Raheem Mostert will turn 32 next month).
Henry on Tuesday agreed to sign with the Ravens for two years and $16 million after the Titans showed little interest in retaining him this past season—so much so that Henry gave a farewell speech in his final home game. He played in 119 regular-season games for the Titans, leaves Tennessee as no. 2 on the franchise’s career rushing list, just 507 yards behind Eddie George, and may have been one of the last running backs to be the face of a franchise.
Tennessee decided instead to sign Tony Pollard to a three-year deal worth $24 million. Ironically, as a player, Pollard is the opposite of Henry. Henry is a massive, old-school back who requires many touches to make an impact on the game but can handle biblically large workloads. Pollard is a part-time rotational back who has thrived as an explosive per-touch player but struggled to handle a full-time workload in Dallas last season after returning from a broken leg.
Perhaps most stunning of all is the plight of Austin Ekeler. He leads the NFL in touchdowns over the past three seasons, with 44 scores in his past 47 games. Ekeler will sign for just $8 million from Washington over two years. For context, the Texans signed former Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend to a contract worth $6 million over two years. Two things can be true at once. Investing in Ekeler, who is turning 29 this summer and missed time with a high ankle sprain last year, is likely a bad idea, and players should be paid for what they are going to do, not what they have done. But it’s also vexing as a fan to emotionally invest in an underdog like the undrafted free agent Ekeler, see him literally lead the NFL in touchdowns, and then watch him be treated as disposable.
The NFL is a business, and all of these players may be better off playing in places where they are wanted. But it is increasingly hard to reconcile the emotional attachments to the players at the center of NFL offenses with the rotating nature of the position. Saquon is a great player. But apparently even being touched by the hand of God isn’t enough to overcome being a declining asset.
