The 2024 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracket Breakdown: The Best Picks for Each Region
The March Madness field is set, and we’ve made our picks for which teams could threaten each 1-seed, potentially mess up your bracket, or emerge as Cinderellas
The men’s March Madness bracket has dropped, and if you need any help filling yours out before the first full day of action tips off on Thursday, we’ve got you covered. We’re taking you through each region, breaking down the top seed, the biggest threats to the favorites, the teams most likely to bust your bracket by the end of the first weekend, and all the key names you’ll be hearing throughout the month.
East Region
The Top Seed: Connecticut
The Huskies aren’t just the heavy favorites to win the East region; they’re also favored to win the whole damn tournament for the second year in a row. Last year’s title-winning squad sent three of its starters—Adama Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, and Andre Jackson Jr.—to the NBA. But this year’s team might be even better. Coach Dan Hurley found new talent in transfer Cam Spencer, the nation’s most efficient player by points per possession, and freshman Stephon Castle, the team’s best pro prospect. The holdovers from last season have taken massive strides as well. Point guard Tristen Newton can score from anywhere and keeps the offense flowing. Alex Karaban is a 6-foot-8, 220-pound forward who can shoot from deep and never stops moving on the court. And center Donovan Clingan could be a lottery pick this summer. UConn has everything—including depth behind the country’s most talented starting five. It ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and leads the nation in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
The selection committee rewarded the Huskies for their dominant 31-3 season with the tournament’s top overall seed … only to load the East region with legitimate Final Four threats. Iowa State, the 2-seed, was in contention for a top seed after dusting Houston in Saturday’s Big 12 championship game. Third-seeded Illinois just won the Big Ten tournament and has the region’s best scorer in Terrence Shannon Jr. Auburn, the 4-seed, is KenPom’s fourth-ranked team overall. UConn might have to get through Florida Atlantic, a 2023 Final Four team that returned seven of eight rotation players, just to make the second weekend. The reigning champs will have a tough road back to the national semifinals—maybe the toughest path of all the top seeds—but they’re talented enough to navigate it.
Don’t be afraid to take the chalk in this region. Connecticut is the best team in the country. They have the depth to match Auburn’s 10-man rotation. They have the offense to outscore Illinois. They have the passing to beat Iowa State’s ball-hawking defense. And FAU’s Final Four experience won’t be an advantage over the defending champs.
The Biggest Threat to the 1-Seed: Auburn
Bruce Pearl’s team is peaking at the right time, having rolled over Florida in the SEC tournament final to cap off an impressive late-season run. The Tigers are deep, every player on the court defends and can score, and they share the basketball. They just might be the most balanced team in America. They’re the only one that ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Not even UConn can claim that, with their shameful 11th-ranked defense. The Tigers lead the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. This is not your typical 4-seed.
The Biggest Threat … to Your Bracket: Iowa State
The Big 12 has a reputation as the country’s most physical league, thanks in part to lenient refereeing in conference games. And Iowa State was one of the beneficiaries of that, with its ball-hawking half-court defense that ranks second in the nation in turnover percentage, per KenPom. Coach T.J. Otzelberger lets his players attack the opposing offense. They trap pick-and-rolls and double the post with reckless abandon, which led to an opponent free throw rate that ranks 250th in the country. And that was in the Big 12, where the refs let the players play. This East region boasts a number of talented offenses that protect the ball. That could be an issue for an Iowa State team that relies heavily on turnovers to fuel its offense. If the refs are calling games tighter than the Cyclones are used to, and they’re not turning over opponents as often, we could see a vulnerable Iowa State team.
Cinderella Candidate: Washington State
I’m not going out on a limb taking a 7-seed here, but the pickings are slim when it comes to Cinderella candidates in this bracket. None of the top four seeds are in imminent danger thanks to relatively easy round-of-64 matchups. Eleven-seed Duquesne and 12-seed UAB were both bid thieves that needed to win their conference tournaments just to get in the dance. So I went with the Pac-12 team, which wouldn’t really make for a Cinderella story but would still be surprising to see go on a run. Despite a few late-season stumbles, the Cougars are balanced and move the ball well. Either team that emerges from the Washington State–Drake game could be a threat to Iowa State. But if you’re looking for a double-digit seed to make it to the Sweet 16, you’re better off looking in another region. This one is loaded at the top, and it’s going to be tough for the lower-seeded teams to break through.
My Bracket:
South Region
The Top Seed: Houston
After crashing out in the Sweet 16 last year as a 1-seed, Houston finds itself on the top line once again. A few of the faces have changed, with Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker now in the NBA, but the Cougars are essentially the same team we saw last March. Coach Kelvin Sampson still employs a blitzing defense that speeds up opposing offenses and forces them into dangerous passes or contested shots. And Houston is once again led by point guard Jamal Shead, who took home the Big 12 Player of the Year award after helping the Cougars to the regular-season title. He’s the head of Houston’s defensive attack, and he might lead the nation in deflected passes if anyone tracked the stat.
But much of this was true last season, and Sampson’s team got run off the court by a Miami squad that was closer to good than great. And this year’s Houston team isn’t as good as the 2023 edition. Sampson plays only six or seven guys, so depth is a question. The Cougars also don’t score inside with any consistency. Big man J’Wan Roberts, the most experienced player behind Shead, just injured his shin and was limited to 13 minutes in a blowout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. L.J. Cryer leads the team in 3-point shooting, but he isn’t a creator. The X factor is Emanuel Sharp, who can score from all three levels—when he’s on. If Sharp can string together a few games of consistent play and provide Shead with some backup, Houston should make the Elite Eight with ease. If he can’t, there are some tricky matchups potentially lurking against Texas A&M and Duke. The Cougars have shown some vulnerability against teams with talented guards who aren’t bothered by extra pressure on the ball and bigs who can make decisive passes. There are a few of those teams in this region, including the biggest threat to Houston …
The Biggest Threat to the 1-Seed: Kentucky
Kentucky is the third-favorite team to make it out of the South, behind Houston and Marquette, but it’ll be the “sleeper” that every basketball snob picks to make the Final Four. If not for some early-season stumbles, Kentucky would be closer to a 2-seed in this tournament. That’s the kind of talent it has in the backcourt. Freshman guard Reed Sheppard, whose name sounds like something AI would think up for a Kentucky basketball player, is a legitimate prospect who ranks second on The Ringer’s 2024 NBA Draft Guide big board. He looks like he’s about 15 years old, but he can get to the rim and has a reliable pull-up midrange shot that is difficult to block. I’m burying the lede: He’s also the nation’s most accurate 3-point shooter, at 52.5 percent. And I don’t even know if he’s the most talented player in Kentucky’s backcourt.
Freshman Rob Dillingham isn’t as efficient as Sheppard, but he handles the ball more and has the ability to take over games at the end. That will come in handy over the next few weeks. John Calipari’s team also got a midseason boost in January when 7-2 center Zvonimir Ivisic, an international recruit out of Croatia, was ruled eligible after missing the first half of the season. He could also be a lottery pick in 2024. This is a throwback Coach Cal Kentucky team. As long as Drake stays out of the picture, it could go on a long run in this tournament.
The Biggest Threat … to Your Bracket: Duke
Unless you’re a Duke fan, you probably don’t need to be convinced to pick against the Blue Devils, who come into the tournament having lost three of their last six, including games against North Carolina in the regular-season finale and NC State in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. Jon Scheyer’s team can score enough to pose a threat to Houston or any other team in this region, but this group hasn’t gotten a stop in crunch time all season. OK, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but defense is a real issue for the Blue Devils. Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, and Jared McCain form a talented Big Three, but none of them are particularly tough defenders, and that issue shows up in tightly contested games. Against the Tar Heels and Wolfpack, Duke was late to seemingly every 50-50 ball. That’s not a path to winning games in March.
Cinderella Candidate: James Madison
The Dukes enter the tournament with the nation’s longest win streak at 13 games and are one of four teams in the field with 30 wins. They’ve achieved this thanks to the scoring duo of wing Terrence Edwards Jr. and forward T.J. Bickerstaff and an up-tempo style that wears opponents out. James Madison can shoot the 3 and score inside. It creates turnovers on the defensive end and turns them into transition buckets. It’s the kind of style we typically see out of powerhouse teams—not underdogs—so it will be interesting to see how it works against power-conference opponents. JMU will be a popular pick to make it to the second round, but a Wisconsin team that ranked in the top 10 in early February is a tough round-of-64 draw that could end their March run before it gets started.
My Bracket:
West Region
The Top Seed: North Carolina
If good point guard play is the key to a long run in March, North Carolina is set up nicely. Lead guard RJ Davis, who returned to the team along with center Armando Bacot following last season’s disappointing campaign, won ACC Player of the Year and is in contention for national honors in a dominant senior season. Davis is a gifted scorer who can shoot off the bounce and get shots off over bigger defenders in the paint. He’s one of the best players in the field, and we’ve seen guys with similar skill sets lead their teams deep into March. Bacot, the rare college center who can score over either shoulder, is one of the top second options in the country.
North Carolina is typically known for its offense, but this year’s team is better on the defensive end. Role players Harrison Ingram and Elliot Cadeau are tireless defenders. Bacot and sophomore Jalen Washington are both prolific shot blockers. Transfer Cormac Ryan is more useful on offense, but at 6-foot-5, his length can be an asset when UNC has to take on teams with bigger players on the wing.
Coach Hubert Davis is probably the biggest question mark for the Tar Heels at this point. Outside of UNC’s surprising run to the Final Four in 2022, the third-year head coach hasn’t had the best March showings. His team is fresh off a disappointing loss to a mediocre NC State team in the ACC tournament final—the Tar Heels were outplayed for 40 minutes by a Wolfpack team that was playing its fifth game in as many nights. That’s a tough look for a team with this much experience: UNC ranks sixth in Division-I playing experience, per KenPom. It’s been a bounce-back year for the Tar Heels after they missed the tournament a year ago, but if they go out early after landing a 1-seed, Davis will be pinned with the blame.
The Biggest Threat to the 1-Seed: Arizona
The committee did UNC no favors, placing Tom Izzo and Michigan State in its quadrant and giving the Tar Heels a potential matchup with Saint Mary’s or Alabama in the Sweet 16. Each of those teams could be tricky opponents for the Tar Heels, but none can match Carolina’s depth of talent. That will change if UNC meets Arizona in the Elite Eight. Caleb Love leads the Wildcats these days, and you probably remember that he led North Carolina to a Final Four in 2022 before transferring last offseason. Love is a talented scorer, but he’s not overly efficient and can be a bit of a ball hog. But that’s exactly what Arizona needed after last year’s first-round embarrassment at the hands of 15th-seeded Princeton. That team didn’t have a go-to scorer. This year’s version does.
Love is hardly a one-man army. Coach Tommy Lloyd has assembled a stacked team full of players whose games mesh well together. He has ball handlers, shooters, post threats, and plenty of depth. Arizona is as talented as any team in this tournament, including UConn.
But the same was true entering last year’s tournament, and the Wildcats went out with a whimper. Lloyd was thoroughly outcoached by Princeton’s Mitch Henderson, so if we’re going to question Hubert Davis’s coaching chops, it’s only fair to also point the spotlight on the third-year Arizona coach, who hasn’t yet been past the Sweet 16.
The Biggest Threat … to Your Bracket: Alabama
Nate Oats coaches his team to play entertaining basketball. They push the pace. They space the floor. They jack up 3s. The Alabama offense is the closest thing college basketball has to a pro offense. I enjoy watching Oats’s teams play, so it brings me pain to point out that the Crimson Tide have made it past the opening weekend of the tournament only twice in six tries. They’ve generally performed up to expectations—last year was a big exception—but we haven’t seen how their style of play would work in the later rounds. [Me doing the worst Charles Barkley impression you’ve ever heard]: You live by the 3, you die by the 3, Ernie. This is my most boomer take on college basketball, but you can’t trust a team that’s this reliant on 3-pointers. Only three teams in the field shoot from long range more often, and one of them just so happens to be Alabama’s opening opponent, Charleston. Oats’s team should be able to win that shoot-out, but if they draw a defensive powerhouse like Saint Mary’s in the second round, they could be headed for another early exit.
Cinderella Candidate: Dayton
OK, I cheated again by taking another single-digit seed as a potential “Cinderella,” but I just wanted an excuse to talk about how cool this Dayton team is, and specifically DaRon Holmes II, the 6-foot-10 forward who leads the Flyers offense. Holmes is the college version of Domantas Sabonis. He operates out of the high post and sets up teammates with handoffs and sharp passes to cutters. He can step out and hit a 3 or shoot over shorter defenders on the block. When he’s cooking down low and teams are forced to double, that opens up shots for his teammates. And Dayton is stacked with sharpshooters. There’s Koby Brea, who ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage; Kobe Elvis, a shoo-in for the All-Name Team who shoots 37.5 percent from 3; and Nate Santos, a 42.7 percent shooter from deep. The Flyers can put the ball in the basket. I wasn’t brave enough to take them over Arizona in my bracket, but if they do make a run, we’ll be in for an entertaining tournament.
My Bracket:
Midwest Region
The Top Seed: Purdue
Purdue and Zach Edey are back in the NCAA tournament a year after suffering the second-most embarrassing loss in the history of the competition, a 63-58 defeat at the hands of 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson. But a lot has changed. Edey is still his dominant self and is a lock to win national player of the year for the second year in a row after averaging over 24 points and 12 boards this season. What’s new is the improved 3-point shooting around him. The Boilermakers enter the tournament shooting 40.8 percent from deep, the second-best mark in the country, after finishing 276th in 3-point shooting a season ago. That’s a remarkable transformation for a team that brought back a lot of players from last season, outside of Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones. Second-year guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have made the biggest strides from year to year, and both are over the 40-percent mark when shooting from range. Even the 7-foot-4 Edey has made a 3-pointer this season. Fairleigh Dickinson’s game plan in last year’s shocking upset, which dared Purdue to shoot from distance, would not be viable against the 2024 version. Don’t let last year’s failure dissuade you from picking the Boilermakers to make a run.
Even so, there are still other concerns with this team and how it’s built. The Boilermakers have had some issues when sped up on offense. Despite getting solid backcourt play all season, especially from Smith, they can be sloppy with the ball, ranking 145th in turnover percentage, per KenPom. There are a number of teams in this region—including the two Cinderella candidates—that could present awkward matchups for the regular-season Big Ten champs. And despite Edey’s continued dominance, his game hasn’t evolved much. He’s not a threat in the pick-and-roll, his bag of post moves isn’t overly impressive, and despite his size, he’s not a great rim protector. There’s a reason he’s not viewed as much of an NBA prospect. Edey will get his numbers, but he’s not a walking bucket in crunch time.
The Biggest Threat to the 1-Seed: Tennessee
Edey may end up winning national player of the year, but Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, who led the SEC in scoring at over 24 points per game in-conference, would get my vote for the best player in the region. Knecht is a true three-level scorer with NBA size and lift on his jump shot. He can run off screens, creates off the dribble, and is a shooter first and foremost. But he also did this earlier in the season against Michigan State:
Tennessee mostly plays him off the ball, but in crunch time it lets him close games out as an isolation scorer. In a February win over Auburn, Vols coach Rick Barnes called the same isolation play for Knecht on four straight possessions. The first time, he hit a pull-up 3 right in his defender’s face. He followed that up with a blow-by drive for a dunk against the same defender. Then, after he cruised past another defender for a left-handed layup on the third play, Auburn coach Bruce Pearl finally said enough of this shit and sent a triple-team at Knecht to get the ball out of his hands.
Having a dominant iso scorer is a rare commodity at the college level, but Knecht is that good. And Tennessee also has the nation’s third-best defense, per KenPom, plus a roster that has plenty of experience in big games. I have the Vols going to the Final Four in my bracket—and the only reason I’m not super confident about the pick is because they’re coached by Barnes, who couldn’t get to the second weekend with Kevin Freaking Durant during his time at Texas and has a reputation for coming up short in March. Knecht, however, may be good enough to drag his coach on a deep run.
The Biggest Threat … to Your Bracket: Gonzaga … or Kansas
Just skip to the next section.
Cinderella Candidate(s): McNeese State … and Samford!
I cheated again! You can’t force me to pick between these two potential tournament darlings, and I will never forgive the selection committee for putting them in the same region. Both teams are good enough to make a run to the Sweet 16, but only one will be able to do it.
McNeese has the better résumé of the two teams. It is 60th in KenPom’s overall rankings and owns regular-season wins over Michigan, VCU, and UAB. It ranks seventh in 3-point percentage and forces turnovers at the sixth-highest rate in college hoops. The Cowboys, who enter the tournament with a 30-3 record, don’t just beat opponents; they throttle them with a suffocating defense and attacking offense. They’re coached by Will Wade, who was fired from LSU after getting in trouble with the NCAA for recruiting violations. But Wade loaded up on transfers from higher levels, including Southland Conference Player of the Year Shahada Wells, who transferred from TCU; Antavion Collum, who started at Ole Miss; CJ Felder, who came over from Florida; and Mike Saunders Jr., who played at Utah. The Cowboys have power-conference athletes, and they put them to good use by switching everything on defense and hounding ball handlers with intense pressure.
Gonzaga is better than its record and seeding imply, but this is a bad matchup for the Zags, who don’t shoot the 3 particularly well. The Cowboys give up a ton of 3-point attempts due to their aggressive style, and if you can’t punish them with makes, Wade’s team can be difficult to score against.
If you think McNeese sounds like a cool team, then you’re going to love Samford. The SoCon champs like to play fast on both ends of the court. On offense, they storm down the court hunting 3-point opportunities—and make them at a 39.3 percent clip—and on defense they mix full-court presses with various zone looks. Samford’s breakneck style is known as “Bucky Ball,” named after head coach Bucky McMillan, who sounds like a character from a 1960s sitcom but could be one of the hottest coaching candidates this offseason if he leads Samford on a tourney run. In order to do that, he’ll have to get past Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks, who are limping into the tournament with Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson, the team’s two top scorers, nursing injuries that kept them out of the Big 12 tournament. Self’s team already lacked depth. If either of his two stars can’t go, the Jayhawks could be done in by Bucky Ball.
My Bracket:
