We are at the unofficial one-week mark of the NFL offseason, and a lot has happened. Kirk Cousins is a Falcon. Brian Burns is a Giant. And the Steelers turned Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph into Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
We’ve been tracking the moves as they’ve unfolded and have finally gotten a chance to catch our breath. So what stands out from all the action around the league? Here are seven takeaways.
Stats are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted.
1. The league told us what it thinks of Justin Fields.
The following teams went into the offseason needing to figure out their starting quarterback situations: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Atlanta Falcons. That list doesn’t include the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, who will presumably draft quarterbacks with the first and second picks, respectively. It also doesn’t include teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams, who entered the offseason in search of a backup QB.
Yet over the weekend, we found out that the best the Bears could get in a trade for Fields was a 2025 sixth-round pick from the Steelers that converts to a fourth-rounder if Fields plays at least 51 percent of the snaps next season. Yes, I’ve seen the reports that the Bears wanted to do right by Fields by sending him to his preferred destination, Pittsburgh. And no, I don’t believe they would have turned down significantly better offers from other teams just to make Fields happy. That’s not how the NFL works. Since the trade was announced on Saturday, there’s been a lot of hand-wringing about how the Bears botched this whole thing. But maybe the simplest explanation is this: Fields didn’t have a market because teams didn’t believe in him as a starting quarterback.
Last season, Fields finished 28th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in dropback success rate. He was 27th in expected points added per pass play. If we zoom out to the last three seasons and look at quarterbacks with at least 25 starts, Fields ranks 28th out of 29 in success rate and 27th in EPA per pass play (ahead of only Davis Mills and Zach Wilson). Over the past three seasons, Fields has the highest sack rate (12.4 percent) in the NFL, and his 38 fumbles during that span are the most in the NFL and five more than any other player. What I’m trying to say here is that there’s no analytical case to suggest that Fields can be even an average starter for an extended period of time.
And yet … I still like the move for Pittsburgh! This is where I remind you that just because decision-makers across the league seem to agree on something, that doesn’t mean they are right. We live in a world where the Vikings just paid Sam Darnold $10 million for the 2024 season. Pretty much everything I just wrote about Fields applies to Darnold, but we’ve seen over and over again that teams will talk themselves into almost any quarterback who has a draft pedigree and a pulse. I am not a Fields truther, but he is a dynamic playmaker, and I can get on board with the idea that a better version of him could exist in a situation outside of Chicago. Fields is entering his age-25 season and is due just $3.2 million in 2024. For the Steelers, adding him was a low-risk move. At the very worst, Fields is an inexpensive, fun backup option behind Russell Wilson. Maybe he’ll be able to cut down on the negative plays and show more consistency with a different coach and supporting cast and turn into something more than that.
But that’s a big maybe, and it’s pretty clear that teams don’t see a player who can overcome his flaws, regardless of circumstances. The most likely scenario is that it never happens for Fields. When a quarterback performs like one of the NFL’s worst starters (statistically) over a three-year sample—even when he’s in a terrible situation—he typically doesn’t suddenly transform into a plus player. That’s just what history tells us. And that’s what the league told us with the low-value/nonexistent trade offers for Fields.
2. Netflix’s Quarterback helped change the narrative around Kirk Cousins.
Here’s how we used to talk about Cousins: Mediocre quarterback who will have some nice stretches, but you’ll never win anything with that guy. Does nobody else remember this?? It was like two years ago! Now? The narrative has completely changed. So what happened?
Two things. One, the Netflix docuseries Quarterback, a behind-the-scenes look at Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, and Marcus Mariota during the 2022 season, was released last summer, and lots of people watched it. It showed the extreme measures that Cousins had to take to get his body feeling good enough for game days. It also showed him hanging out with his kids and his teammates. Cousins embraced his nerdy dad persona, and it seemed like people began to develop a fondness and appreciation for him. That’s a good thing! Athletes are humans, and content that reminds people of that should be applauded.
The other thing that happened is the Vikings won a lot of games. In 2022, the Vikings went 13-4, but that record was mostly a fluke. They went 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer; no team since at least 2000 had a better record in those one-possession games. It was a fun and entertaining run for Vikings fans. The ball kept bouncing their way over and over and over again. But it shouldn’t have really changed anything about how we viewed Cousins. In his other 11 seasons, Cousins’s teams went exactly .500 (63-63-2) with him as the starter.
So why am I telling you all this? Because Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million deal ($90 million guaranteed) with the Atlanta Falcons, a sign that at least one team is probably overrating its potential ceiling with him as the franchise’s quarterback. In six seasons with the Vikings, Cousins directed a top-10 DVOA offense once (in 2020, when the Vikings finished ninth). Minnesota finished top 10 in passing DVOA once (in 2021, when they were 10th). Now Cousins is entering his age-36 season, he’s coming off of an Achilles injury, and his supporting cast in Atlanta, while interesting, is unlikely to be as good as it was in Minnesota, where he was throwing to All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Can Cousins raise the floor of the Falcons offense and give the team competent quarterback play? Sure. Should we take them seriously as a contender in the NFC just because they added Cousins? Probably not.
Not all NFL teams have the same objectives. Some are singularly focused on building a Super Bowl winner. Others target a run of sustained success. And some just don’t want to be embarrassed anymore. I think that’s where the 2024 Falcons come in. This feels like a situation where owner Arthur Blank looked around after the disappointing Arthur Smith era and said: I’m tired of watching guys like Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke. If you want to keep your jobs, find me someone better.
And Cousins is better than those guys, and now there are plenty of fans who also find him easy to root for. Sundays in the fall will be more fun for Falcons fans because of him. The team could easily win the division. And Blank can be proud of his team, even if Atlanta doesn’t come close to sniffing a Super Bowl.
3. Dak Prescott is about to become the highest-paid player in NFL history.
I can’t wait for this to happen at some point in the not-too-distant future. I’m embarrassed to admit what I’d pay for a Stephen A. Smith livestream minutes after Prescott’s next deal is announced.
Prescott and Cousins are closely linked through the business of football. We almost never see above-average quarterbacks hit the open market as free agents, but Cousins has gotten there twice, and it’s a big reason he’s earned over $281 million in his career, despite having just one playoff win under his belt. His new contract with the Falcons makes him tied as the seventh-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL. That’s at age 36 and coming off of a season-ending injury.
So if Cousins got $45 million per year, what would Prescott, entering his age-32 season, get on the open market? I don’t think that we’ll find out, but it’s at least possible that we will. Prescott is entering the final year of a deal he signed in 2021. And remember, he has both a no-tag clause and a no-trade clause. In other words, if Prescott wants to play out his contract and see what’s out there next offseason, he has the option to do that, and there’s nothing the Cowboys can do to stop him. Cousins had the same no-tag clause. It’s something that more and more quarterbacks (and more players in general) should start to push for in negotiations because it gives them leverage and the option to actually find out what they can get on the open market.
The question then becomes: What’s the scenario where the Cowboys successfully prevent Prescott from hitting the open market? There might be only one: make him the highest-paid player in the NFL. Right now, Joe Burrow tops that list at $55 million per year. Burrow’s contract with Cincinnati included $146.5 million guaranteed, which is second only to Deshaun Watson. Burrow has accomplished more than Prescott—he’s played in a Super Bowl and two conference title games—is younger than him, and is a better player. But guess what? That doesn’t matter! This is all about timing and how the next big contract builds on the last market-shifting contract. Prescott’s camp could easily make the argument that some team would pay him more than Burrow if he were to test free agency, and that’s probably true (don’t forget the lengths to which the Browns had to go to outbid other teams to land Watson). So the Cowboys can choose to be the team that pays Prescott a salary north of $55 million per year, or they can risk losing him for nothing in return after the 2024 season. Again, it’s rare that we see a player have this kind of leverage over a team.
This one has all kinds of juicy outcomes. There’s a scenario in which the Cowboys pay big for Prescott in the coming months and the team disappoints again in the upcoming season. There’s also an unlikely but possible scenario in which the two sides can’t reach an agreement on an extension, and the Cowboys end up losing him in 2025. Things are never boring in Dallas, and this is easily the biggest offseason contract situation to monitor in the months ahead.
4. The Cincinnati Bengals are making moves that make sense.
All right, where are my football hipsters? Grab a PBR, and come on over. Let’s talk about an under-the-radar offseason that has made a lot of sense to me. It’s that of the Cincinnati Bengals! They are not trying to steal any offseason headlines. They’re just trying to fill in some gaps on what is shaping up to be a Super Bowl–caliber roster.
The Bengals defense was a disappointment last season, and that’s where their focus has been in free agency. They signed safety Geno Stone to a two-year, $14 million deal. Stone is entering his age-25 season. He is a ball hawk with a high football IQ. Stone had seven interceptions and nine passes defended for the Ravens last offseason. I love his fit in the scheme of Captain Lou (Anarumo). The Bengals got a young, ascending player who should be an upgrade at the position, and they didn’t have to break the bank to do it. At the other safety spot, they brought back Vonn Bell for just $1.2 million. Bell had three excellent seasons in Cincinnati, but he left last offseason to sign with the Panthers in free agency. That didn’t work out for him, and now he’s back—count that as a huge win for the Bengals.
On the other side of the ball, they signed running back Zack Moss for two years ($8 million with $3 million guaranteed), and they moved on from Joe Mixon. Moss is less expensive than Mixon, and he ran well for the Colts last season. Cincinnati can now pair Moss with second-year player Chase Brown for an inexpensive backfield. If they draft a running back who winds up playing over one or both of those guys, great. If not, they have set a decent floor for the running game without spending significant resources.
In the second wave of free agency late last week, the Bengals brought in defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (two years, $24.5 million) to try to get some more pass-rush juice. And they’re taking a low-cost flier (one year, $2.5 million with $400,000 guaranteed) on tight end Mike Gesicki.
Not all of these moves will work out, and none are really intended to put the Bengals over the top. But the moves all make sense. Cincinnati already has the big pieces (Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Trey Hendrickson) in place. It’s about making smart bets on the margins, and that’s exactly how the team has approached this offseason.
Of course, the Tee Higgins situation is still hanging over them. The Bengals used the franchise tag on him, but Higgins is reportedly looking for a trade. This situation seems pretty straightforward: If another team offers a nice package, you consider it. If not, the Bengals keep Higgins for 2024 and try to go on a run.
Burrow’s injuries ruined the Bengals’ 2023 season, but in many ways, it was still an encouraging year. They found a good backup in Jake Browning and showed they could still be competitive without Burrow. Now you add in what has been a sensible offseason so far, and I see a team that should be right back in the Super Bowl mix.
5. The Detroit Lions are striking the right balance.
The best news for them came when offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided he wanted to stick around in lieu of taking a head-coaching job. The Lions finished fifth in offensive DVOA last season, and they’re bringing almost everyone back. Among the 13 offensive players who logged at least 400 offensive snaps for the Lions last season, the only two who aren’t under contract for 2024 are guard Jonah Jackson (who signed with the Rams) and wide receiver Josh Reynolds (currently unsigned as a free agent). This group is positioned to put up a lot of points once again.
Defense is where the Lions decided they needed a talent upgrade, and I like what they’ve done on that side of the ball. Detroit acquired Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis III for a third-round pick (they also got a pair of sixth-rounders back). Davis has had some injury issues (he played a total of 25 games the past two seasons), but he is a feisty, experienced outside corner who is entering only his age-28 season. When he’s on the field, Davis will offer an obvious upgrade to the players Detroit had on the field last year. They also signed versatile corner Amik Robertson to a two-year, $9.25 million deal.
Up front, the Lions took a flier on former first-round pick defensive lineman Marcus Davenport. Last offseason, Davenport signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Vikings. He played in just four games because of injury. That’s obviously a risk once again, but the Lions are buying low, signing Davenport to a reported one-year, $6.5 million deal. If he can stay relatively healthy, that’s a nice deal even if he’s just an average starter.
And finally, the Lions added defensive tackle D.J. Reader on a two-year, $27.25 million deal with around $9 million guaranteed. Reader is an excellent run-stopping defensive tackle who fits what the Lions want to do. My only question here is resource allocation, considering the Lions already had the best run defense in the NFL last year.
The Lions are in a tricky spot. On the one hand, it seems like they feel like they’re close, and they want to go for it. On the other, they have a young core, and they want to build something sustainable. General manager Brad Holmes has done a nice job of trying to balance both of those objectives. The bottom line is that the Lions were Super Bowl contenders last year, and on paper, they’ve gotten better this offseason.
6. The Philadelphia Eagles are set up for a boom-or-bust 2024.
It’s been an offseason of change in Philadelphia, and few coaches have more riding on the upcoming season than Nick Sirianni. Following last year’s epic collapse down the stretch, owner Jeffrey Lurie decided to retain Sirianni, but the team brought in new coordinators in Kellen Moore (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense).
General manager Howie Roseman has had a busy offseason. The Eagles signed running back Saquon Barkley, edge defender Bryce Huff, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and linebacker Devin White. They also traded for former Steelers first-round pick quarterback Kenny Pickett to back up Jalen Hurts.
So where do all those moves leave the Eagles? I see this thing going one of two ways, which I’ll outline in the form of fan fiction.
If you are an Eagles fan, read here:
Playing in one of the most running back–friendly offenses in the NFL, Barkley totals more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and the Eagles look like a juggernaut. There’s just too much for opposing defenses to account for. Some teams try to stop the run, and Hurts torches them with throws to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside. Other defenses opt to play with two deep safeties, and Hurts and Barkley run all over them. During the home opener, Hurts burns the blitz with an in-breaker to Brown, and the Philly crowd delivers a sarcastic standing ovation. It’s something they don’t remember seeing at all last year. Moore has all the answers as a play caller, and the good vibes from the Super Bowl season are back. On the other side of the ball, Jalen Carter emerges as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and Fangio shows he can do more with less as the Eagles rebound from the trauma of the short-lived Matt Patricia era. They win the NFC East, earn the no. 1 seed, and get right back into contention for a Lombardi Trophy.
If you are not an Eagles fan, read this:
The offense once again struggles to find an identity and suffers from too many cooks in the kitchen. Moore was brought in to run the show, but Sirianni is reluctant to cede full control. That leads to constant confusion and a disjointed product. The Barkley signing proves to be a disaster. The offensive line takes a big step back without recently retired center Jason Kelce, and Barkley is constantly hit behind the line of scrimmage. The 600-plus touches from the previous two seasons in New York took their toll on him, and Barkley looks like a declining player. Fans are so defeated that they can’t even muster up the energy for a faux QB controversy between Hurts and Pickett. Defensively, Fangio gets a look at what he’s working with and wonders why he left Miami. Huff is unable to handle the increased workload, and Fangio benches White three weeks into the season. By the time December rolls around, it’s clear this team doesn’t have it, and the only question is whether Bill Belichick or Ben Johnson will take over in 2025.
Check back with me in August to see which scenario seems more likely. But you get the point. The extremes feel very much in play with this Eagles team.
7. The Carolina Panthers botched the Brian Burns situation.
The three-year “Will they or won’t they trade Brian Burns?” saga reached its conclusion, as the Panthers sent the star edge rusher to the New York Giants for a 2024 second-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick. This move can only be described as a complete disaster for Carolina.
A reminder that the Panthers turned down a package for Burns in 2022 that included two first-round picks and a second, according to CBS Sports and other outlets. To be fair, at that time, Burns still had a year and a half left on his contract, so it’s no surprise that teams weren’t willing to offer quite that much this offseason, given that Burns was due for a new deal. But still, we have a lot of evidence that suggests teams have really liked Burns. Just this past November, even though Burns wasn’t having his best season, at least five teams called about trading for him at the deadline, according to ESPN. The Panthers didn’t take any of the offers.
Then this offseason, Carolina used the nonexclusive franchise tag on Burns before trading him at what had to be the absolute low point in terms of value. Perhaps the Panthers have information that I am not privy to, and they thought this was a reasonable return, but on the surface, Carolina continues to look like a franchise that has no idea what it’s doing.
The Panthers essentially had three options here. They could have signed Burns with the intention of keeping him. They could have signed Burns with the intention of trading him down the line. Or they could have traded him now. They chose the last option—and that was easily the least attractive one. Burns ended up signing a contract with the Giants worth $28.2 million per year with $76 million guaranteed. That’s a completely reasonable deal! There was nothing outlandish about Burns’s demands. He’s entering his age-26 season, has produced like a top-10 edge rusher, and has a high ceiling. The Panthers have one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Burns plays a premium position and should just now be entering his prime. Those are the types of guys that good franchises try to hold on to. But apparently, the Panthers had no interest.
Even if the Panthers for some reason did not want Burns on their team long term, you still don’t trade low. Burns is coming off of a down season (for him). The Panthers could have easily signed him to this deal and then tried to trade him for more draft capital in the future. Again, he’s young, and we know that at some point in the recent past, teams were willing to give up way more for him. Imagine what the offers would be if he has a 12-sack season in 2024. Why not hold on to a valuable player and figure the rest out down the line?
The Panthers have had so many different coaches and general managers that it’s hard to know who to blame for what. But the constant has been their owner, David Tepper. The meager return for Burns was another reminder of the inexplicable mismanagement that has come to define his tenure.
