Home teams are unbeatable. That’s the overarching overreaction from the first weekend of the 2023-24 NBA playoffs, as all eight higher seeds won Game 1s at home. With only two games decided by single digits, it wasn’t the most compelling weekend of hoops—but as an appetizer to the next two months of playoff basketball, it’s a worthy start.
So let’s dive into the initial results by examining one specific overreaction from each of the eight games thus far, in chronological order. Will these overreactions prove true and lasting for more than the first weekend? Who knows: That’s the entire point of overreactions! We’ll learn more in Game 2 and beyond.
The Magic Offense Will Break My TV
The first game of the 2023-24 playoffs might end up as the ugliest. That’s how terrible the Magic offense looked in a 97-83 loss to the Cavaliers.
A final tally of 83 points is bad enough in this offensive era. But the Magic’s performance was even worse when removing their 18 fast-break points—the result of 17 Cleveland turnovers. Orlando’s offensive rating in the half court alone, per Cleaning the Glass, was a ghastly 63 points per 100 plays.
For context, the league average in the regular season was 99 points per 100 half-court plays. The worst half-court offense belonged to Portland, at 89 points per 100. And the Magic in this game were all the way down at 63!
Orlando’s long-running lack of perimeter spacers and playmaking guards proved devastating against a dialed-in Cleveland defense. The five Magic guards who played—Gary Harris, Jalen Suggs, Joe Ingles, Markelle Fultz, and Cole Anthony—combined to make just four shots (all from Suggs) on 35 attempts. Paolo Banchero was the team’s only moderately productive offensive player, but even his 24 points were tempered by nine turnovers.
Regardless of whether this problem eliminates the Magic in this round or later in the postseason, at least the team’s summer shopping list will be easy to compose. The Magic’s offense was so bad in Game 1 that it may have earned Malik Monk an extra $20 million this summer, because adding a guard like Monk, an unrestricted free agent who seems destined for a big payday, would go a long way toward alleviating Orlando’s scoring struggles. The Magic desperately need to give Banchero and Franz Wagner a teammate who can add some creative oomph without dominating the ball.
Jusuf Nurkic Is the Suns’ Most Irreplaceable Player
Don’t misread this sentiment: Nurkic isn’t the Suns’ best or most talented player. But he looks like the most irreplaceable. The Suns have enough talented perimeter scorers that if, say, Devin Booker goes to the bench, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal can pick up the mantle. But Nurkic is Phoenix’s only viable big, so the Suns are doomed whenever he takes a break.
Nurkic had his team’s best plus-minus on Saturday, at minus-1 in a 120-95 loss to Minnesota. But while the Suns were outscored by just one point in Nurkic’s 27 minutes, they were outscored by 24 points in the 21 minutes he was off the floor.
Plus-minus can be misleading in a one-game sample, but this has been the Suns’ dynamic all year. Among players with at least 1,500 minutes in the regular season, Nurkic ranked eighth in on-off differential and was mostly surrounded by superstars.
Biggest On/Off Differentials in Regular Season Net Rating
Drew Eubanks, who was a good backup center for the Trail Blazers last season, has been a disappointment in Phoenix; the Suns were minus-14 in his nine minutes in Game 1. And the Suns don’t have the big wings necessary to make Durant-at-center lineups viable as anything more than a momentary change of pace. In the regular season, Durant-at-center lineups allowed opponents to rebound 33.6 percent of their misses, per CtG, which ranked in the first percentile for defensive lineups.
This first-round series represents an extreme clash of styles and sizes, between Minnesota’s big defenders and Phoenix’s smaller scorers. And after Game 1, in which Minnesota won the rebounding battle 52-28, the Timberwolves are clearly winning that duel. The most important math of this series is that the Wolves have three good big men, while the Suns have only one.
The Knicks Are Too Big and Fast for the 76ers
This is a strange thing to say about a team led by the thunder-and-lightning duo of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. But look at the scoring distribution from the Knicks’ close win in Game 1:
Knicks Vs. 76ers Game 1
New York didn’t shoot well in Game 1 (just 39.6 percent from the field). Star guard Jalen Brunson (just 22 points on 26 shots) didn’t reach his usual standard. Yet the Knicks compensated by dominating at the margins, netting a combined 34 points between second-chance possessions and fast breaks.
In my preview of this series, after Philadelphia outlasted the Heat in the play-in round, I warned that the Knicks could torment the 76ers on the offensive glass. New York led the league in offensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, while Philadelphia’s defense ranked just 26th in this stat. But even I didn’t expect the Knicks to post a Game 1 offensive rebounding rate of 52 percent. FIFTY-TWO PERCENT!
Mitchell Robinson grabbed seven offensive boards. Isaiah Hartenstein and point guard Brunson added five apiece. Josh Hart secured four. All those extra chances meant the Knicks attempted more free throws than the 76ers and also took 10 more field goals, which is a hard combination to beat. “We let them play to one of their strengths, like, absolutely to the max,” 76ers coach Nick Nurse said.
LeBron James Is Trapped in a Time Loop
The Lakers led the Nuggets by two points midway through the third quarter on Saturday. Then the Nuggets went on a 13-0 run, en route to a 114-103 win.
The only surprise was that the Nuggets pulled ahead late in the third quarter, instead of waiting until the fourth to make their move. In all three matchups between the Lakers and Nuggets in this regular season, Denver pulled away from a close game in the fourth quarter:
- In October: Nuggets lead 92-89 early in fourth, Nuggets go on 11-2 run and win
- In February: 104-104 late in fourth, Nuggets go on 10-0 run and win
- In March: Lakers lead 110-108 late in fourth, Nuggets go on 9-0 run and win
Denver followed the same pattern in all four playoff games in last year’s conference finals sweep:
- Game 1: Nuggets lead 129-126 late in fourth, Nuggets score final three points and win
- Game 2: 81-81 early in fourth, Nuggets go on 15-3 run and win
- Game 3: Lakers lead 94-93 midway through fourth, Nuggets go on 13-0 run and win
- Game 4: 111-111 late in fourth, Nuggets score final two points and win
I’m beginning to suspect that LeBron is trapped in a terrible time loop, perhaps in a Method-acting experiment as the four-time MVP, who first remade Space Jam, now seeks to reprise a different mid-’90s classic in Groundhog Day.
Adding to this sense of futility is that the Lakers’ stars actually matched the Nuggets’ top duo in Game 1. LeBron and Anthony Davis combined for 59 points on 39 shots, plus 20 rebounds and 13 assists. Those numbers are comparable to—and more efficient than—what Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray produced: 54 points on 47 shots, 18 rebounds, and 17 assists.
Yet the Nuggets’ supporting cast was much better than the Lakers’. Denver’s three other starters, all returning from last year’s championship squad, were solid on Saturday, and second-year forward Peyton Watson—who spent most of his rookie season in the G League and appeared in the playoffs only in garbage time—was strong off the bench.
In contrast, the role players next to LeBron and Davis aren’t consistent enough to match the Nuggets for all 48 minutes of a game. The most obvious manifestation of this difference comes via D’Angelo Russell: The 2023-24 Lakers have become increasingly reliant on his offense, yet Russell was played off the court in last season’s conference finals and shot 6-for-20, including 1-for-9 from distance, in Game 1 on Saturday.
Boston Is Going to Sweep Its Way to the Conference Finals
Jayson Tatum tallied a triple-double as the Celtics beat the Jimmy Butler–less Heat by 20 points in Game 1, and even that margin doesn’t do justice to how badly the Celtics pounded the visiting Heat. Boston led by 32 entering the fourth quarter and didn’t look remotely fazed on either end: The Celtics’ collection of shooters tore up Miami’s typically stout defense, while an attack led by Tyler Herro couldn’t poke any holes in Boston’s perimeter shell.
Boston has had plenty of trouble against Miami in recent postseasons, but vengeance will come easy this year without Butler’s involvement. The bigger question after Game 1 isn’t whether the top-seeded Celtics will beat the eighth-seeded Heat, but how far the Celtics can advance before they lose a game. After a historically great regular season, Boston was rewarded with a rematch against an inferior Heat team in the first round, then a matchup with either the relatively unthreatening Cavaliers or Magic in the conference semis.
Because the Celtics led the league in 3-point attempt rate (a trend they continued in Game 1, with 49 3-point attempts out of 82 shots, or 60 percent), they’re vulnerable to a cold shooting night from deep. But that seems like the only way Boston can realistically lose a game until it faces much better competition—which, given the draw, probably won’t come until the conference finals at the earliest.
Momentum Is Meaningless
The Mavericks entered the playoffs as one of the NBA’s hottest teams. Led by Luka Doncic, a healthy Kyrie Irving, and a revamped post-trade-deadline rotation, Dallas went on a 16-2 run to end the regular season (not counting the last two games, when it was already locked into the 4-5 series and rested its top players).
The Mavericks’ first-round opponent, meanwhile, entered the playoffs as one of the league’s coldest contenders. After rising to the top of the Western Conference with a 34-15 record in early February, the Clippers finished the regular season on a 17-16 kick. From March 7 through April 10, the Mavericks’ net rating was 12 points better than the Clippers’.
And then Los Angeles came out and absolutely blew Dallas off the floor on Sunday afternoon, despite missing star wing Kawhi Leonard. The 109-97 final score suggests a vaguely competitive game, but this one was over within 12 minutes: On the last possession of the first quarter, James Harden sank a 3-pointer to push the Clippers’ lead to 34-22, and the Mavericks didn’t get within single digits for the rest of the game.
The lesson, as always, is that end-of-regular-season momentum doesn’t mean much for the playoffs. As I wrote a few years ago, from 1984 (the start of the 16-team playoff bracket) through 2018, teams with a worse regular-season record pulled off the upset in 22 percent of playoff series. For lower-seeded teams with a hotter finish over the last 20 games, that upset rate barely budged, to 24 percent.
That’s not to say that Dallas can’t come back in this series, especially if Kawhi misses more games as he recovers from inflammation in his right knee. The Mavericks were only one win worse in the regular season, and the Clippers surely won’t make 50 percent of their 3-pointers—as they did in Game 1—in every contest. Momentum from Game 1 doesn’t matter much, either!
But the disparate ways that the two teams entered the playoffs isn’t reason to expect a Mavericks triumph, and Game 1 showed why in emphatic fashion.
The Damian Lillard Trade Was Already Worth It
No Giannis, no problem—just as the Clippers cruised at home without Kawhi, the Bucks cruised without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who missed Game 1 against Indiana due to his lingering calf strain. The highlight of Milwaukee’s 109-94 win was Lillard’s early explosion: In his first playoff game as a Buck, Lillard scored 35 points, the second most in the first half of a playoff game in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97). Tied for third on that list? Lillard’s 34-point performance in Portland in 2019, in the same game that he later sent the Thunder home with a walk-off buzzer-beater.
Lillard’s first season in Milwaukee hasn’t gone as smoothly as expected after the Bucks completed a blockbuster trade for him last fall. He averaged 24 points per game on 42 percent shooting (35 percent from distance)—good numbers, sure, but not elite, as they were Lillard’s worst in a full season in nearly a decade.
But he caught fire against the Pacers, and Milwaukee continued a season-long trend of excelling when he gets hot. In the regular season, the Bucks were 17-3 when Lillard scored at least 30 points in a game. That was the highest winning percentage for any player with at least 10 30-point games.
The question going forward is whether Lillard’s first half is sustainable or flukish, because Lillard’s floor has seemed to fall more than his ceiling this season. Incidentally, he didn’t score at all in the second half of Game 1, as the Pacers tilted their defense his way, but Khris Middleton (23 points on 9-for-14 shooting) picked up the slack, and Indiana’s 21 percent 3-point shooting hindered a comeback attempt.
At the very least, though, Lillard bought Giannis more time to rest his calf. The former Finals MVP won’t need to rush back if his team and superstar partner can win without him.
Herb Jones Vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Is the Best Matchup of the First Round
Earlier on Sunday, Gilgeous-Alexander was named one of three MVP finalists for this season, along with Jokic and Doncic. Later on Sunday, he was pushed to the limit by Jones, the Pelicans wing who might be the ideal defender to slow down SGA’s unique scoring ability.
SGA got the last laugh in Game 1, leading the Thunder to a 94-92 victory in their first playoff game as a no. 1 seed since 2013. The MVP finalist scored a game-high 28 points, including the game-winning and-1 basket in the final minute (more on that play in a moment).
But he had to work hard to get those numbers. SGA needed 24 shots to score 28 points, and he tallied just four assists and had three turnovers. The reason is 6 feet, 8 inches tall, with a 7-foot wingspan—Jones, a surefire All-Defensive team honoree, has the necessary combination of length, speed, and instincts to blockade SGA’s arrhythmic drives and contest his stepback midrange jumpers.
This isn’t a mere one-game sample size, either: Gilgeous-Alexander’s 54 percent true shooting mark against New Orleans in the regular season was his worst against any Western Conference opponent, with Jones naturally serving as New Orleans’s primary on-ball defender.
Notably, for SGA’s game-winning bucket on Sunday, the Thunder ran a guard-guard screen to get Jones switched off SGA: With the shot clock winding down, SGA set a pick for Jalen Williams, and New Orleans switched so that Jones could stay on the ball, which freed SGA to attack the smaller CJ McCollum instead.
If the Pelicans could defend that play again, they’d surely prefer to maintain their original assignments to prevent the SGA-McCollum mismatch. Good news: They’ll have plenty more opportunities as this series continues, and as coaches Mark Daigneault and Willie Green scheme ways to fiddle with the most fascinating one-on-one battle of the first round.
