See you all in a week, NBA fans. After a sweep in the Eastern Conference finals and a gentleman’s sweep in the Western Conference finals, the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks have a long time to wait until the start of the Finals on Thursday, June 6.
The two finalists took different routes to the same destination. Boston has been the best team in the East all season long; the Celtics took the no. 1 seed for good in mid-November, coasted to 64 wins and a record 14-game lead over the no. 2 seed, and went 12-2 in the playoffs while benefiting from the easiest Finals path in modern NBA history. On the other side of the bracket, Dallas remade its rotation at the trade deadline, pulled off three series upsets in a row, and now seeks to become the first no. 5 seed to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
The Celtics enter the Finals as the favorites, with a “championship or bust” mission, home-court advantage, and two wins in as many matchups against the Mavericks this season. Boston beat Dallas 119-110 in January and 138-110 in March (after the trade deadline, but before the Mavericks settled on their current starting lineup). Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played in both games.
But it’s not as if Boston has owned Dallas, or Luka in particular, for very long. In November 2021, Doncic did this to beat Boston at the buzzer:
And in February 2021, he did this in the final seconds:
Whichever team wins the title will become the sixth different winner in the past six years, tying an NBA record. Here are three big questions that will decide the latest victor.
1. Can Boston slow down the Doncic-Irving duo?
The Mavericks enter the Finals with one huge advantage: They have the best player in the series. That dynamic already cost this Celtics core one championship, when Steph Curry beat them in the 2022 Finals.
And Doncic’s sidekick is no slouch, either: Irving’s résumé includes one of the most important shots in Finals history, and the two form the best active backcourt in the NBA. (Despite some “best backcourt ever” chatter during Dallas’s playoff run, I’m not ready to even broach that conversation—do people forget watching Steph and Klay Thompson combine powers for the past decade?)
Doncic and Irving appear to be peaking at the right time. In the conference finals, they torched the Timberwolves’ league-best defense. The two guards ranked no. 1 and 2 in scoring in the Western Conference finals, combining for 59 points per game—both scoring 30-plus in three of five games!—and making 41 percent of their 3-pointers.
But as far as one exists, Boston has the ideal roster to try to rein in that dynamic duo. Joe Mazzulla’s Celtics start four plus perimeter defenders who can mix, match, and share the assignments of defending Dallas’s guards.
The Celtics’ primary defender on Doncic in the regular season was Jaylen Brown, who has improved as a wing stopper despite middling defensive metrics, while Jrue Holiday handled the matchup with the second-highest frequency. Holiday and Derrick White—who both made an All-Defensive team this season—split the Irving assignment.
That approach didn’t work at all against Luka, who averaged 35 points per game on 47 percent shooting in the two games against Boston. If that trend continues in the Finals, expect Jayson Tatum—the biggest of Boston’s four perimeter starters—to try his hand as a Doncic defender, as well.
But Boston won both games anyway because Luka’s teammates couldn’t keep pace. Irving in particular struggled against Holiday and White’s hounding defense, scoring 42 points on 43 shots while attempting just two total free throws.
That difference is notable in part because of what happened in Dallas’s closest call in the playoffs thus far. Against the Thunder in the second round, the Mavericks relied on last-second free throws in Game 6 to advance, and that series ended up perfectly even in total points scored (636 for Dallas, 636 for Oklahoma City). One reason the Thunder stayed close was that Irving wasn’t particularly productive, averaging only 15.7 points per game and scoring in single digits twice.
If the Celtics can limit Irving in that fashion in the Finals, Dallas will be in trouble even if Luka continues to score at will. The battle between Irving and the Holiday-White tag team could swing the series—as if there weren’t already enough narrative implications for Kyrie’s matchup against Boston, half a decade after his contentious tenure with the team.
2. How healthy is Kristaps Porzingis?
Porzingis scored 20 points per game on 52/38/86 shooting splits in his first regular season as a Celtic while also playing excellent defense in the middle. Opponents made just 52 percent of their shots at the rim when Porzingis was the closest defender, the fifth-lowest mark among 66 players with at least 250 shots defended.
Best Rim Defenders in Regular Season
Yet the Eastern Conference competition was so weak that Boston didn’t even need him for the last nine wins of its journey to the Finals. Porzingis left Game 4 of the Celtics’ first-round romp, all the way back on April 29, with a calf strain. He hasn’t played since, meaning he’d end up with 37 days of rest if he returns for Game 1 of the Finals.
Without any tune-up games, though, Porzingis might be rusty; at the very least, he might be on a minutes restriction as he builds up his endurance after so much time off. And the Celtics aren’t playing the Heat without Jimmy Butler, the Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell, or the Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton—they’ll need a top-tier version of Porzingis, a former Maverick, to help defend the rim on one end and stretch the floor on the other.
Porzingis played in only one of the regular-season meetings between Boston and Dallas, but he was a difference maker in that contest. He scored 24 points on 8-for-14 shooting (4-for-8 from distance) and embraced opportunities for open 3s when Dallas’s defenders collapsed to help on drives.
Porzingis could scramble the Mavericks’ preferred defensive strategy, which worked such wonders in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Dallas coach Jason Kidd has been content to station his centers (Daniel Gafford and rookie sensation Dereck Lively II) around the basket, ignoring subpar shooters away from the rim. Against the Thunder, the Mavericks left Josh Giddey open, for instance, and against the Timberwolves they sagged off Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson.
But every member of Boston’s typical rotation, including Porzingis as a stretch 5, is a willing and able shooter from deep. The Celtics led the NBA in 3-pointers made and attempted this season, sinking them at a 38.8 percent rate (second best in the league).
Celtics Shooters in Regular Season
(In the playoffs thus far, four of Boston’s starters have continued to make 3s at a solid clip, but Tatum has slumped to 29 percent from distance.)
Beyond providing rim protection and offensive spacing, Porzingis would also lengthen Boston’s rotation by moving Al Horford—seeking his first title, after 17 seasons and 181 playoff games—back to a bench role. In that position, Horford can contribute without being such an easy target for Doncic and Irving in pick-and-rolls.
Kyrie isn’t the only crucial player in this series with an opportunity for revenge after a less than satisfying stint with the opposing team.
3. Who has the advantage in the clutch?
At some point in the Finals—many points, hopefully—the two teams will have to execute in high-stakes, pressure-packed, late-game situations. In those moments, championships are won and lost, legacies forged and erased.
Those moments will pit two of the most statistically clutch teams in the league against each other. In the regular season, Dallas ranked second in clutch win percentage (72 percent) and third in clutch net rating (plus-20.5), while Boston ranked fourth in clutch win percentage (64 percent) and fourth in clutch net rating (plus-15.4). And in clutch minutes in the playoffs, Boston is 4-0, with an astounding plus-43.9 net rating, while Dallas is 6-3, despite a more mediocre plus-1.6 net rating.
Those are the numbers; the two teams’ clutch vibes, however, are more distinct. On one side, Dallas has won numerous close games in this postseason thanks to superior shotmaking from Doncic, Irving, and P.J. Washington, and the presence of the two star guards means that the team can generate makeable shots on every possession.
The Celtics, conversely, have a much worse clutch reputation, starting with a star who hasn’t produced at the same rate late in games. Boston’s clutch possessions can look sluggish and disjointed, without much of a plan—yet the Celtics have won close games all season long, including in three of their four victories in the conference finals.
The Mavericks have won those games all season long too, though, and the Finals are a zero-sum game: Only one team can keep winning in the clutch. The team that can continue doing so is the true favorite to lift the trophy.
