My god, look at the calendar. Go on. I insist. Look at it. It seems impossible, but facts are stubborn things, and we’ve already arrived at the final men’s golf major of the 2024 season. Was it not just yesterday that we were marveling at Scottie Scheffler as he earned his second green jacket at Augusta National, or Xander Schauffele as he bagged his elusive first major at the PGA Championship, or Scheffler again as he was carted off to jail at the same PGA Championship, or Rory McIlroy as he missed gimme putts at nos. 16 and 18 at the U.S. Open, thus ceding the tournament to onetime pariah/now possible future president Bryson DeChambeau?
Between the ongoing and increasingly incomprehensible status of the allegedly pending merger between the PGA, DP World, and LIV tours and a corresponding sense of fatigue and frustration from both players and fans alike, this is a very weird period for the men’s game. But a few times a year, we’re able to ignore all that and revel in the high-intensity struggle that yields a champion for the ages. That’s one thing they can’t take away with closed-door committee meetings. So far. So grab your rain gear, your beanie, and your beverage of choice and buckle up for four days of riveting action from the region where strange geniuses first invented the sport we love. As always, I am joined by my esteemed playing partners Megan Schuster and Matt Dollinger as we prepare you for the 152nd occurrence of the oldest major of them all, the Open Championship. —Elizabeth Nelson
What can we expect from Royal Troon?
Nelson: This week’s Open Championship takes place at Royal Troon in Scotland, and, man, is that a cool name for a golf course. Royal Troon was founded in 1878 on the Scottish southern coast, and it’s considered one of the world’s premier links venues. It has hosted nine previous Open Championships, featuring winners including legends such as Arnold Palmer and Tom Watson, and the last time the Open Championship was played there in 2016, it resulted in a highly entertaining shoot-out in which Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson to become the year’s champion golfer. Stenson and Mickelson both went very low that week—20-under par and 17-under par, respectively—but the course actually played far tougher than that, with no other players within 11 shots of the two leaders.
Royal Troon is a challenging but relatively straightforward par 71, which will play at 7,385 yards this weekend. In traditional Open Championship fashion, its fairways and greens are studded with deep pot bunkers, the sort that can ruin an otherwise promising tournament in the span of a few uproarious minutes. (Let’s not kid ourselves—watching a professional golfer take five shots to extract their ball from a 7-foot-deep sandpit is delightful and part of why we tune in every year. Don’t lie.)
In terms of strategy, the opening stretch of holes contains some of Troon’s more scorable par 4s, and it will behoove contenders to get off to a quick start, as the back nine is much longer and nastier. The weather in Scotland will be chilly, and while the forecast looks dry on Thursday, it appears more unstable heading into the weekend, when high winds and rain could create borderline unplayable conditions. Which can also be hilarious.
The most famous hole at Troon is the par-3 eighth, which is known as “the Postage Stamp” and can play as short as 99 yards while still delivering the potential for abject misery for those who are overly daring or choose the wrong club. In the end, the winner will likely be someone whose ball-striking skills and overall composure are enough to surmount the course’s treacherous layout, difficult greens, and chaotic weather. Expect a tough, nervy, entertaining four-day test.
Are you there, golf gods? It’s me, Rory McIlroy.
Megan Schuster: Death, taxes, and parsing Rory McIlroy’s chances at the next major tournament. That’s become the norm in golf spheres ever since McIlroy’s last major win at the 2014 PGA Championship. Unfortunately, the results have only become more frustrating, more backbreaking, and more dispiriting as the decade has gone on. And while McIlroy has long been able to adopt an air of positivity no matter the circumstances, that may be changing, too.
There was the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews, in which a four-shot 54-hole co-lead wasn’t enough to get him the win that Sunday—or even a top-two finish in the tournament. “I’ll be OK,” McIlroy said after the loss. “At the end of the day, it’s not life or death. I’ll have other chances to win the Open Championship and other chances to win majors. It’s one that I feel like I let slip away, but there will be other opportunities.” There was the 2023 U.S. Open at the Los Angeles Country Club, where McIlroy held a share of the lead on Sunday before eventually losing to first-time major winner Wyndham Clark. “I’m getting closer,” McIlroy said after that tournament. “The more I keep putting myself in these positions, sooner or later it’s going to happen for me. When I do finally win this next major, it’s going to be really, really sweet. I would go through 100 Sundays like this to get my hands on another major championship.”
Then there was last month’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst, in which McIlroy held a two-shot lead with five holes to play, only to miss two putts inside 4 feet and eventually finish second to Bryson DeChambeau. That meltdown—on such a public stage, with such high hopes and expectations—seemed to finally affect McIlroy’s spirit. In uncharacteristic fashion, McIlroy refused to speak to the media after the loss. He went on to change his phone number—accidentally ghosting Tiger Woods in the process—and he took a break from tournament play, withdrawing from the Travelers Championship.
This week, McIlroy has been back espousing positivity, saying his disappointment has turned to motivation and that all in all, it took only a few days for him to bounce back. But the question remains whether this will finally be the major in which he earns a reprieve from the golf gods—or yet another source of pain to add to the ever-growing list.
Is Bryson DeChambeau the people’s champion?
Matt Dollinger: Scheffler might be the best golfer alive, but there isn’t anyone hotter than DeChambeau, who in the last 14 weeks has finished T6 at the Masters, second at the PGA, and first at the U.S. Open. Even more impressive, he’s completely reversed the narrative around himself in the process.
Two years ago, when DeChambeau bolted for LIV Golf, most fans couldn’t wait to see him go. His act had grown more tired than your local muni’s greens. The never-ending quest for distance, the know-it-all attitude, the wonky equipment, the annoying quips. He wasn’t even playing good golf, having missed four straight cuts before he took the money and ran. Who would miss him?
Then, something happened. Or rather, a lot of things happened. Maybe the heart does grow fonder with (ahem) distance. It turns out, we missed Bryson. And the LIV experience may have humbled him. Because as smart as Bryson is (just ask him), he seemed to realize that he gave something up when he went to LIV: us. And unlike his now-buddy Brooks Koepka, Bryson really, really, really cares what we think. He wants us to like him. He wants us to watch him. He wants to be the people’s champ. It means something to him.
Pardon my language here, but who the fuck stops to high-five the gallery on a Sunday when they are contending, no less leading, at a major? Bryson has done that at the last two. He’s embracing every single cheer he’s getting from the gallery. He’s soaking in every scream. He clearly wants to do more than just win—he wants to put on a show. He wants fans to be a part of the experience. He genuinely, and unapologetically, loves this shit.
I mean, look at this celebration. This looks like Gronk celebrating a touchdown, not a pro golfer putting out to win. At one point, he stares directly into the camera and breaks the fourth wall. Bryson knows you are watching. Whether you are rooting for him to succeed or fail, he’ll take it. He loves the attention. And he’s unlikely to let it go this time.
What if Scottie Scheffler wins?
Nelson: Could Scottie prevail in Scotland? Of course—he’s the best player in the world. Scheffler could never pick up another club, and his 2024 campaign would be considered a legendary season. Scheffler has won six starts to this point, including the Masters and five of the PGA Tour’s other signature events. He has been dominant at times and clutch at others. His ball striking has been incredible, his putting electric. He has the temperament of a friendly, soft-spoken anaconda. His most recent win, a playoff victory over ascendant Tom Kim at the Travelers Championship last month, saw him calmly make par on the first sudden-death hole, while Kim hacked the ball around like a man in the throes of a challenging psychedelic experience.
The entire Scheffler situation is remarkable. Five years ago, nobody had heard of the man. Now, his enshrinement in the World Golf Hall of Fame is all but a foregone conclusion. That’s difficult to improve upon! But what if he won the Open Championship? Then we’re entering the discussion about the greatest seasons of all time. It’s difficult to imagine anyone ever replicating the nine-win, three-major campaign Tiger Woods posted in 2000, but a Scheffler win at Troon would bring us about as close as we’re likely to get.
To be clear, I don’t think Scheffler will win the Open Championship this week. No player has won both the Masters and the Open Championship in the same year since Tiger in 2005, and the only others to do the trick have been Mark O’Meara, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, and Arnold Palmer. Scottie is the clear-cut favorite, but all of the variables at the Open Championship—including weather, start times, and the unusual nature of the courses—make it notoriously the most difficult of the majors to predict. This will be just Scheffler’s fourth Open Championship appearance, and while previous results have been promising enough—T23 at Royal Liverpool last year, T21 at St. Andrews in 2022, and T8 at Royal St. George’s in his first Open in 2021—nothing exactly screams Claret Jug. But should he stand on the 10th tee on Sunday in contention, it will be cancel-all-your-plans appointment viewing. Major championship golf is all about history, and Scheffler has been making it all year long.
Keegan Bradley, Ryder Cup captain???
Nelson: Hell yeah! Essentially unrelated to this tournament but pertinent to golf generally is last week’s shocking news that the PGA of America has appointed Bradley to captain Team USA for the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black. This is such a bizarre development. Like most things in the American golf ecosystem, the Ryder Cup tends to be a hothouse of cliques and personal rivalries, which has led to a persistent team unity problem in the U.S.’s biennial contest against Europe. Bradley, the 19th-ranked player in the world, was famously left off the 2023 team by then-captain Zach Johnson, despite demonstrating outstanding form. That was broadly interpreted as a mean-spirited slight, and it blew up in Johnson’s face as his captain’s picks performed disastrously and the Yanks were routed in Rome. Now, in an evident attempt to make amends, the 38-year-old Bradley has been handed the keys to the entire apparatus.
Everybody acknowledges that the Bradley selection came out of nowhere. It had been broadly assumed that Tiger Woods would take over in 2025, galvanizing the team at a venue where he achieved one of his most famous triumphs at the 2002 U.S. Open. But following months of vacillating, Woods turned the job down and set the stage for this appointment at the top of the org chart. In truth, though, Bradley’s captaincy isn’t quite as random as it seems. He played college golf at St. John’s, which hosts a yearly tournament at Bethpage, so Bradley knows the course like the back of his hand. He is generally one of the best-liked players on tour, which could not be said for Johnson or, frankly, a lot of the previous American captains. What he lacks in experience—he is a two-time Ryder Cup participant but has never been an assistant captain—he presumably makes up for in the intangible “I don’t hate the man who is coaching our team” department.
And most of all, this represents a pretty radical reset for an American Ryder Cup operation that sure needed to do something different, having gone 2-5 in its last seven contests. This could easily all go very wrong, but the folk-hero vibes here are strong. If Captain Keegan can claw back the Cup on Long Island, the poets will sing his praises, and Tiger will, for once, be an afterthought.
Who is more likely to make the cut: Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson?
Dollinger: It’s been a little over five years since Woods won his last major. Here’s how he’s done in the 13 majors he’s entered since: missed cut, T21, missed cut, T37, missed cut, T38, 47th, withdrawn, missed cut, withdrawn, 60th, missed cut, missed cut.
It’s been a little over four years since Mickelson won his last major. Here’s how he’s done in the 11 majors he’s entered since: T62, missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, T2, T58, missed cut, missed cut, T43, missed cut, missed cut.
I had to do a lap around the house after typing all that out. Frankly, it’s depressing. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Tiger and Phil are likely done competing for majors. One is 48 years old, and the other is 54. One has a fused spine and a surgically repaired leg, and the other plays Candy Land golf and has more demons than a horror movie.
And yet, I will wake up at an ungodly hour to watch the Open this week and savor every glimpse of Tiger and Phil that the broadcast gives me. Maybe you don’t like watching them miss the cut, but it won’t be long until Father Time bars them from doing even that. One of the greatest rivalries in golf history doesn’t have much longer. But even in 2024, it still has a little juice.
As for who is more likely to make the cut, I’ll go with the guy I still think has more to prove. The one with the bigger chip on his shoulder. The one who just got all the bulletin board material he needed this week.
Brooks Koepka or Jon Rahm: Which of LIV’s big hitters has the best chance?
Schuster: This may be a question that Rahm’s foot can answer better than I can, but I’ll give it a shot. It’s been an … interesting year for Rahm in the major championship department. In April, he followed his 2023 green jacket win with a disappointing T45 finish at the Masters. Then in May, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Between that finish and the U.S. Open in June, Rahm developed a lesion between the fourth and fifth toes of his left foot, which got infected, and … well … you can read all the gory details here, but suffice it to say things got so bad that he had to withdraw from the year’s third major.
Now Rahm says he feels back to his early 2023 form, and his +2500 odds are lower than Koepka’s +3500 entering the tournament. But I’d still go with Koepka here. First, we know that Brooks plays his best golf on the biggest stages, and that should certainly apply to Royal Troon this week. Second, while he hasn’t played up to expectations in majors so far this season—his best finishes were two T26s at the PGA and U.S. Open—he’s been better than Rahm in those tournaments and hasn’t had the same health concerns. Both players have solid histories at the Open—Koepka has four top-10 finishes in nine starts while Rahm has two top-fives in eight starts—but I’m giving the edge to the man who lives to troll and is looking to collect his sixth major championship win.
Brian Harman was a surprise winner last year. Who might emerge from the shadows this time?
Dollinger: Before the U.S. Open, I (somewhat jokingly) ranked Ludvig Aberg as the fourth-best golfer to never win a major. A few days later, he had the 36-hole lead at Pinehurst No. 2, only to eventually fade over the weekend. But the 24-year-old is dangerously close to dominance. Last week, he had the 54-hole lead at the Scottish Open, only to fade on Sunday and lose to the hard-charging Robert MacIntyre. But Aberg—who finished second at Pebble Beach and second at the Masters and has four other top-10 finishes this season—is trying to tell us something. With a swing and putting stroke as pure as his, all he’s missing is a little scar tissue and the know-how on how to close. Once he figures out what to do on the weekends, he’ll be as dangerous as anyone on tour. He’s tied for the fourth-best odds to win this week, ahead of some of the biggest names in the world.
Outside of Aberg (potential podcast name?), I’m keeping an eye on Sahith Theegala, another young hotshot who’s destined to eventually break through. Theegala has the game and demeanor to win majors, and he showed last week at the Scottish Open (T4) that he’s got the game for links golf. You need to be both brave and creative to win at Royal Troon. Tell me this guy doesn’t have a chance. Theegala is a deep sleeper at +6500 to win, but so was Harman.
Finally, I’m riding with Shane Lowry (another podcast name!), who hasn’t won this year but has been playing some great golf, making the cut in all three majors, including a T6 finish at Valhalla. Lowry skipped the Scottish Open last week to sneak in some extra practice at Royal Troon, but he’s been sharp in recent tournament golf, finishing T9 at the Travelers and T19 at the U.S. Open in June. His game is perfectly suited for a brutal week. The tougher the course, the tougher Lowry will be.
Who will win?
Nelson: Collin Morikawa. Morikawa won this tournament at Royal St. George’s in 2021 and then proceeded to miss the cut at his next two Open Championships. But he’s been playing very well this year and has finished in the top 15 at all three majors, although that has been entirely overshadowed by the astonishing play of Scheffler. Morikawa is absolutely elite, and I still think he and Scheffler will foster a great American golf rivalry over the next decade. This week, Collin stakes his own claim to 2024 glory.
Dollinger: Ludvig Aberg. I’m not sure I can handle the pain of picking Scheffler or McIlroy again, so I’m going with Aberg. He’s made 14 of 15 cuts and has seven top-10 finishes this year. Last time the Open came to Troon, Henrik Stenson prevailed on Sunday. Maybe another Swede will do it this time.
Schuster: Aberg. Give me the youngster! Aberg has played in only three major championships to this point in his fledgling career, but in those, he has had a T12 and second-place finish. I’d like to see him round that out with a Claret Jug.
