Back in February, while the facility maintenance crew at Allegiant Stadium was still raking confetti into trash bins following San Francisco’s loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, 49ers star receiver Brandon Aiyuk did what any self-respecting yet aggrieved athlete would do. Aiyuk opened up his Instagram and typed an intentionally vague but thinly veiled threat that made it clear where things stood between him and the 49ers front office.
“Don’t forget what got you there,” Aiyuk wrote, kicking off a chain of events that landed us here, about a week before the start of training camp, with Aiyuk’s relationship with the organization reaching a crisis point. On Monday, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported that Aiyuk had (finally) formally requested to be traded, in absence of landing the long-term contract extension he’d been seeking from the Niners. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that San Francisco’s offer was in the $26-$27 million per year range, falling short of market value for receivers at a similar age and with résumés similar to Aiyuk’s. In an ecosystem where Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown is now making an average of $30 million per year and Miami’s Jaylen Waddle will collect $28 million on their respective deals, it’s easy to identify the impasse in Aiyuk’s negotiations.
The subtext to Aiyuk’s post–Super Bowl Instagram post is that he believes he’s an integral, and irreplaceable, part of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and as he heads into the final year of his rookie contract, he’s ready to get paid like a true no. 1 receiver. Even with a star-studded offensive roster that includes elite skill position players like running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle, and do-everything receiver Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk is probably right—and Shanahan’s offense doesn’t hum without him. The question now is whether the delay on signing Aiyuk to a new contract is a sign that Shanahan disagrees, or whether it’s just another case of the 49ers dragging out contract negotiations with a star player because they can.
Contract talks for San Francisco’s foundational players have a history of taking an uncomfortable amount of time—so while Aiyuk appears to be serious about his trade request, it’s best to temper expectations before Photoshopping him into another team’s jersey. Samuel’s contract extension with the Niners in 2022 wasn’t agreed on until training camp had already begun, and Samuel spent that offseason looking to be traded if a new deal wasn’t struck. Nick Bosa’s holdout spanned the entire preseason before the star edge rusher signed his market-setting deal for $170 million.
With both Samuel and Bosa, the 49ers had both the leverage and the motivation to eventually get deals done to keep their elite players on the roster. And while the schism between Aiyuk and the team has gradually become more public this offseason, no amount of Instagram screenshots or TikTok clips are compelling enough to suggest that the 49ers have any interest in trading Aiyuk—not even when there’s plenty of smoke coming from Aiyuk’s online posturing with former college teammate Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, whose front office is now run by former 49ers executive Adam Peters. Time and team control are firmly on San Francisco’s side, and the team still has the option to use the franchise tag on Aiyuk next offseason. The most likely outcome is that Aiyuk will wear red and gold through his prime, though his trade request has surely raised the temperature of the situation. A “hold-in” once training camp starts this month could further apply some pressure.
Still, while the logic for GM John Lynch to continue to slow play the situation is sound, there comes a time for wisdom to take the wheel. Aiyuk’s back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and All-Pro honors in 2023 make him worth a top-five contract at his position—not just on his own merit as a phenomenal player, but specifically within the 49ers’ offensive system. San Francisco has built an all-star team with its skill-position talent, but the offense that set fire to the league in every conventional and advanced statistic in 2023 doesn’t just take a major hit in Aiyuk’s hypothetical absence—it functionally ceases to exist without him.
If San Francisco were to trade him away, it would be forgetting what indeed got them here, as the most unstoppable force on a play-to-play basis last season.
The “Kyle Shanahan System” is defined by several key ingredients that have changed in order of importance over the years, but there are central tenets: pre-snap motion, multiple personnel groupings, and a scheme anchored by explosive runs and meticulously crafted play-action passes.
We don’t often associate his offense with needing a dominant receiver because we’ve seen his offense stay functional without one. When Shanahan has a true X receiver, though, there’s an immediate change in his offensive approach. When Shanahan landed in Atlanta as offensive coordinator in 2015, not only did his pistol-heavy run game instantly provide a more traditional approach to fit quarterback Matt Ryan, but he was also able to heavily shift the balance of targets for all-world receiver Julio Jones, who set career highs in targets, receptions, and yardages under Shanahan in 2015.
While Aiyuk, at just 6 feet and 200 pounds, is not built like Jones and isn’t the prototypical big-bodied bully out on the perimeter, his ability to separate against any coverage gives him similar value as an unguardable piece in a Shanahan scheme. Last season, Aiyuk was fifth among receivers in total EPA when facing zone coverage and was first in success rate. The few times defenses dared to play man coverage against San Francisco, Aiyuk’s EPA per target, yards per route run, and explosive reception rate each ranked in the top five.
Aiyuk’s ability to separate gives Brock Purdy a “Get Out of Jail Free” card when things break down and the quarterback is asked to improvise. On pass plays that took longer than three seconds, Aiyuk put up 571 yards on 26 receptions in 2023, second only to Cleveland’s Amari Cooper. And Aiyuk puts on a route-running clinic every snap and keeps plays alive when the protection breaks down or the first look in the progression is covered.
Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports and Reception Perception perhaps captured Aiyuk’s value best in his charting. Just look at all that green:
No matter what level of the field Aiyuk is working or the coverage type he sees, he’s going to be open, and he’s going to punish a defense if he’s targeted. He’s not the same kind of singular force as Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and A.J. Brown, but he’s just as productive. Acquiring Aiyuk will likely cost at least a first-round pick and another in the top 100—effectively the price Philadelphia paid to acquire Brown from the Titans in 2021—a hefty cost for a player you know will be seeking a long-term extension when he walks in the door.
If the 49ers want to stay where they’ve been, as a perennial contender in the NFC, it should take a mountain-moving offer to make it worth parting ways with an offensive player like Aiyuk who creates instant explosive plays for Shanahan’s offense.
Aiyuk isn’t just Purdy’s best asset; he’s a fundamental piece of building the best version of Shanahan’s scheme and a testament to San Francisco’s player development. The Niners don’t let that sort of talent walk out the door as their young QB prepares for his long-term extension—especially as they’re fighting tooth and nail to keep their championship window open.
To translate another one of Aiyuk’s less than vague social media posts: Money talks, bullshit walks.
