The 2024 MLB season is the first “normal” campaign in half a decade. The 2020 and 2021 seasons were disrupted by the pandemic; a lockout made 2022 strange; and 2023 brought a suite of new rule changes to the typically orthodox sport. But in 2024, baseball looks fully like baseball, with no reservations, from the good (superstars) to the bad (injuries to said superstars).
With the All-Star break ending and the rest of the schedule resuming on Friday, it’s time to take stock of all 30 teams with a traditional Ringer power ranking, to see just how well we assessed each club the last time we ranked them before Opening Day. All wins above replacement figures come from FanGraphs.
1. Philadelphia Phillies (62-34)
Preseason Rank: 3
The last time the Phillies won the NL East, in 2011, they did so thanks to one of the best starting rotations in MLB history. The 2024 version isn’t quite at the Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt-Worley level, but Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez all rank among the top dozen pitchers this season by WAR, and Aaron Nola isn’t far behind. Add in a bullpen helmed by Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering—who have a combined 1.29 earned run average in 111 1/3 innings—and it’s a wonder the 2024 Phillies ever allow any runs at all.
Oh, and Philadelphia’s offense ranks third in the majors in runs per game, despite missing J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber for stretches. The Phillies could use another outfielder, but at full strength they’re dominant at run scoring and run prevention, with stars and depth and a roster that seems well-constructed for October. Barring additional major injuries, the Phillies are all but guaranteed to enter the postseason as the World Series favorites.
2. Baltimore Orioles (58-38)
Preseason Rank: 4
From a pure total-WAR perspective, the Orioles almost certainly lost the trade that brought Corbin Burnes to Baltimore for one season, in exchange for 12 combined seasons of team control over Joey Ortiz and DL Hall. But all WAR isn’t created equal, and where would the division-leading Orioles be if not for All-Star starter Burnes and his 2.43 ERA?
Sure, Ortiz has been great in Milwaukee (2.2 WAR), but he was expendable in Baltimore, where breakout All-Star Jordan Westburg and MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson hold down the left side of the infield. The main question for the Orioles now is how expendable all their other hitting prospects are, when the rotation—which will miss both Kyle Bradish and John Means for the rest of the season—still needs proper wingmates for Burnes. Given the Orioles’ needs and farm system, no contender is in a better position to make a significant deal by the July 30 trade deadline.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (56-41)
Preseason Rank: 2
Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have typically combined the superstar spending of big-market bullies with the depth development of smaller-market success stories, but this season the latter component is missing. The Dodgers’ one-through-five hitters—who are usually Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernández—have a combined 146 weighted runs created plus, the best in the majors by 16 points. But the six-through-nine hitters are down in 21st place with a 79 wRC+, which underscores the complete lack of thump at the bottom of the order.
Despite a recent slump and injuries in the rotation, the Dodgers are still in excellent shape, with strong underlying numbers and a firm grip on the NL West lead. But Friedman might need to wheel and deal at the deadline in order to upgrade his roster’s glaring holes, lest the disappointing likes of Gavin Lux and James Outman drag down the soaring Ohtani and Betts in October.
4. New York Yankees (58-40)
Preseason Rank: 9
In 2023, Aaron Judge was incredible, but none of his lineup-mates did their part. Now, after adding Juan Soto in the offseason, the 2024 Yankees have the same problem with a minor tweak: Judge and Soto are both incredible, but none of their teammates follow suit.
Judge leads all qualified batters with a 207 wRC+, and Soto ranks third (after Ohtani) with a 179 mark. But the next-best Yankees hitters (minimum 100 plate appearances) are the currently injured Giancarlo Stanton (124) and Jose Trevino (103)—everybody else is below average. Regression from the starting rotation—wherein Gerrit Cole doesn’t look right in his return from an elbow injury—is the main culprit behind the Yankees’ 8-18 swoon since their torrid 50-22 start. But the lineup needs to lengthen for New York to beat Baltimore for the division title and have a chance at the franchise’s first World Series appearance in 15 years.
5. Cleveland Guardians (58-37)
Preseason Rank: 20
The Guardians have the best record in the American League and the second-best record in the majors; they also rank just 13th with a 49-46 BaseRuns record, which means they’ve outperformed their underlying numbers by nine wins, the most in the majors by far.
That’s partly the result of a tremendous bullpen, led by closer Emmanuel Clase, who touts a 0.81 ERA and leads all pitchers in win probability added. Without Shane Bieber and with Triston McKenzie demoted to Triple-A, the Guardians rank 29th in WAR from starting pitchers but first in WAR from relievers. The combination of a poor rotation and probably unsustainable clutch hitting suggests Cleveland won’t be as formidable a playoff opponent as its record would indicate.
6. Atlanta Braves (53-42)
Preseason Rank: 1
With Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. out for the season and many of the team’s All-Star hitters underperforming, Atlanta looks like a merely good contender instead of a superteam. Atlanta’s position players are on pace for 17.4 WAR this season, which is less than half their 40.2 WAR total from 2023, when they led the second-place Rangers by eight wins.
But in the offense’s relative absence, Atlanta’s Strider-less rotation has picked up the slack. Max Fried, converted reliever Reynaldo López (with his 1.88 ERA), and the resurgent Chris Sale form a potent top three. And they could help pull off a revenge playoff upset, if Atlanta matches up with Philly for a third straight NLDS after back-to-back 3-1 defeats.
7. Boston Red Sox (53-42)
Preseason Rank: 21
Guess which team has the best BaseRuns record in the American League. Well, that might not be difficult given the header atop this section, but the answer is still a surprise! Boston’s underlying numbers say the team should be in first place, and despite a four-game underperformance, the Sox look like a playoff team, with Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran leading the offense, and Tanner Houck making a Cy Young case.
Boston has some major holes still worth filling, though, if it wants to make a full-fledged playoff push. Fortunately, the Red Sox have one of baseball’s best farm systems, giving them the ability to trade for another couple bats and another starter. Don’t be surprised if Boston not only grabs a wild-card berth, but comes close to chasing down Baltimore and New York for the division lead.
8. Milwaukee Brewers (55-42)
Preseason Rank: 18
No Counsell, no Burnes, no Stearns, no problem. Despite losing the manager, ace, and GM who powered the club to the 2023 NL Central title, Milwaukee remains atop the division in 2024. But this is a different Brewers team, which is stronger on offense—thanks to Christian Yelich’s resurgence and able contributions from Ortiz, William Contreras, and others—than on the mound.
Given that Milwaukee’s rotation ranks 25th in WAR and looks to be held together by bubble gum and sticks, the Brewers could benefit from an infusion of pitching talent at the deadline. But they’re closer to a first-round bye than they are to missing the playoffs, and that’s already a massive overachievement relative to expectations.
9. Minnesota Twins (54-42)
Preseason Rank: 11
To just about everyone’s surprise, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, José Miranda, and Ryan Jeffers compose one of the best offensive infields in the majors—or they would, if only Lewis could stay healthy between all his home run binges. The Twins are solid up and down the roster, likely without any major award contenders but without any major weaknesses either.
They trail the Guardians by 4.5 games in the Central, but that margin would look a lot more manageable if Minnesota hadn’t gone 0-5 against Cleveland in the first half. A more advantageous split in their eight remaining head-to-head games could help the Twins close the gap for the division title and probable playoff bye, especially if Cleveland’s good luck regresses after the break.
10. Seattle Mariners (52-46)
Preseason Rank: 8
The Mariners’ young pitchers have been excellent. Their top five starters—four 20-somethings and 31-year-old Luis Castillo—have combined for a 3.18 ERA, with Logan Gilbert and George Kirby both turning in career-best campaigns.
But their counterparts on the position-player side haven’t held up their end of the bargain. Julio Rodríguez registers as a particular disappointment, following his Rookie of the Year win in 2022 and fourth-place MVP finish in 2023. Rodríguez is only a league-average hitter this season, despite a .354 BABIP, because his power has all but disappeared. The Mariners will need a lot more out of his bat—and his teammates’—to fend off Houston for their first division title since 2001.
11. Houston Astros (50-46)
Preseason Rank: 5
The Astros had a losing record every day of the season through June 25, but now they sit just one game behind the AL West leaders—despite a rash of pitching injuries, the spectacular collapse of José Abreu, and the worst season of Alex Bregman’s career. This feels all too familiar from the club that’s reached the ALCS seven years in a row.
More specifically, the 2024 Astros resemble the 2020 version, which finished 29-31 in a shortened season, but qualified for the expanded playoff field and missed the World Series by one game. That group didn’t have a long enough regular season to turn things around before the playoffs, but the 2024 version does. Who would possibly pick against the Astros now?
12. Kansas City Royals (52-45)
Preseason Rank: 24
In my preseason rankings, I predicted that “the Royals have dark-horse candidates to win both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards.” That forecast still holds true, via Bobby Witt Jr. (152 wRC+, 5.7 WAR) for the former and either Cole Ragans (3.16 ERA, 3.5 WAR) or Seth Lugo (2.48 ERA, 2.8 WAR) for the latter.
The more surprising element is that Witt, Ragans, and Lugo aren’t excelling in obscurity, but rather for a surprise playoff contender: Kansas City exits the break just two games out of a wild-card berth. Witt and Salvador Perez likely need more help in the lineup for Kansas City to actually win a slot, but just being in the running represents a remarkable turnaround for a club that lost 106 games a season ago.
13. New York Mets (49-46)
Preseason Rank: 17
Welcome to the wide middle of the National League; starting with the Mets, the next eight teams in these rankings are mediocre NL clubs battling for the league’s second and third wild-card spots. The first among relative equals is the Mets, who have reversed their fortunes with a 27-13 record following a 22-33 start.
In late May, it looked as if the Mets would be sellers at the deadline, most notably of impending free agent Pete Alonso. But now the Mets might be buyers instead, as first-year president of baseball operations David Stearns could work to support a deep lineup with pitching upgrades. The Mets rank 28th in pitching WAR, and rehabilitated versions of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino don’t exactly stand out as compelling no. 1 and 2 starters in a short wild-card series (though Kodai Senga’s imminent return from injury could solve part of this problem).
14. St. Louis Cardinals (50-46)
Preseason Rank: 16
The Cardinals would claim a playoff spot if the season ended today, but it’s difficult to envision them finishing that way given their negative-38 run differential. Veterans Nolan Arenado (101 wRC+) and Paul Goldschmidt (90) aren’t hitting. Nor are promising youngsters Lars Nootbaar (104) and Nolan Gorman (95). Offseason additions Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn have helped stabilize St. Louis’s rotation, but the Cardinals will need to work more magic to keep pace in the wild-card race. Perhaps their greatest reason for belief is that all of their closest competitors have plenty of flaws, as well.
15. San Diego Padres (50-49)
Preseason Rank: 14
The Padres seem like less than the sum of their well-paid parts. The lineup is full of stars, and the rotation has been a pleasant mix of established starters (Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish when healthy) and newbies (Michael King, knuckleballer Matt Waldron). But San Diego has hovered around .500 all year, unable to break into positive territory for more than a week at a time. Can inveterate trader A.J. Preller make more moves to spark a better run down the stretch?
16. Arizona Diamondbacks (49-48)
Preseason Rank: 10
Fresh off a World Series appearance, the Diamondbacks made a winter splash by signing Eduardo Rodríguez and Jordan Montgomery in an effort to improve a shallow rotation. But Rodríguez hasn’t pitched yet this season due to shoulder problems, while Montgomery has a 6.44 ERA in 13 starts. Arizona can’t afford that kind of underperformance from two projected core contributors—especially as Corbin Carroll has declined from a 133 wRC+ to a mere 82.
17. Cincinnati Reds (47-50)
Preseason Rank: 19
In 1986, his third season in the majors, the Reds’ Eric Davis broke out with a 27-homer, 80-steal season, in the process becoming one of the majors’ most exciting players. In 2024, 38 years later, Elly De La Cruz—the first Red since Davis to hit for the cycle—is following right in his predecessor’s path. De La Cruz is on pace for 28 homers, 77 steals, and a large league lead in social media highlights. Let’s hope his peak lasts longer than that of Davis, who was waylaid by a spate of injuries in his prime.
18. Chicago Cubs (47-51)
Preseason Rank: 13
Patience is growing thin in Chicago, where the Cubs haven’t won a playoff game since 2017. This season, the Cubs’ top four starters all have ERAs of 3.27 or better, but a mercurial bullpen and inconsistent offense haven’t offered sufficient support. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Cody Bellinger combined for 13.5 WAR last season but are on pace for just 7.4 in 2024, and those six “missing” wins could well be the difference between a playoff spot and another October miss.
19. Pittsburgh Pirates (48-48)
Preseason Rank: 26
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20. San Francisco Giants (47-50)
Preseason Rank: 15
For the second offseason in a row, the Giants missed out on their top free agent targets. But they responded with a seemingly solid plan B, signing Matt Chapman, Jordan Hicks, Blake Snell, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo Lee to universally reasonable contracts.
Fast-forward six months: Chapman and Hicks have been solid, but Snell has a 6.31 ERA, Soler is an average hitter with no defensive value, and Lee had a .641 OPS before suffering a season-ending injury. The best-laid plans often go awry.
21. Texas Rangers (46-50)
Preseason Rank: 6
With Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle all set to miss extended time due to injuries, the 2024 Rangers were built with a tenuous plan in mind: Tread water long enough to be in position to surge into a playoff spot once the cavalcade of pitching reinforcements arrived. The early returns haven’t been promising, and a five-game gap might be too much for Texas to make up after the break.
But all’s not yet lost for the defending World Series champs. Scherzer is back, and deGrom and Mahle remain on their rehab schedules; in the lineup, rookie Wyatt Langford is heating up (.816 OPS since the start of June) after a slow start. FanGraphs odds give the Rangers only a 13 percent chance to come back and reach the playoffs—but that’s much greater than their chance before last October to win the World Series, and they managed that feat.
22. Detroit Tigers (47-50)
Preseason Rank: 22
The Tigers look like a worse version of the Royals, with a stellar young hitter (Riley Greene, instead of Witt), dominant lefty ace (Tarik Skubal, instead of Ragans), and strong veteran righty (Jack Flaherty, instead of Lugo) taking top billing. If only Spencer Torkelson could match Greene’s rise, then the Tigers’ future would look much brighter, but the former no. 1 pick is currently scuffling in Triple-A after a midseason demotion. If a first baseman can’t hit, he doesn’t have much of a place in the majors, and Torkelson has a 69 wRC+ in the majors this season, as well as a 90 wRC+ across his career.
23. Tampa Bay Rays (48-48)
Preseason Rank: 7
With an All-Star–caliber rotation on the IL, the Rays are mired in a down year; their .500 winning percentage belies a 42-54 BaseRuns record. Only the Guardians have outperformed their underlying metric by a larger margin, and Tampa is still 5.5 games out of a playoff spot.
The Rays’ biggest question over the next two weeks is whether they’ll take the opportunity to reset for next season and beyond, perhaps by trading Randy Arozarena. The left fielder is a proven playoff performer and has righted the ship (.833 OPS since the start of June) after a dreadful start (.568 OPS through the end of May), and he’d fit well in Philadelphia, Atlanta, or Seattle.
24. Washington Nationals (44-53)
Preseason Rank: 28
Juan Soto has been worth 5.5 WAR this season; the players Washington acquired in their Soto trade two years ago have been worth 4.5. There’s almost no way for a team to win a trade when it’s selling a future Hall of Famer in his prime, but the Nationals might get close: CJ Abrams is an All-Star, MacKenzie Gore has harnessed his potential, and James Wood is just beginning what projects to be a long and starry MLB career.
25. Toronto Blue Jays (44-52)
Preseason Rank: 12
The Blue Jays’ record looks bad, and their underlying numbers are even worse: Their 40-57 BaseRuns record rates below those of the Angels and Athletics. Bo Bichette has a not-so-nice 69 wRC+, Alejandro Kirk’s 2022 Silver Slugger season looks more like a fluke every month, and the bullpen has been worth 1.7 wins below replacement, thanks to a 4.91 ERA and 5.03 FIP.
Despite three playoff appearances in the last four years, Toronto is still searching for its first postseason win of the Bichette–Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era. That quest will almost certainly continue for another year.
26. Los Angeles Angels (41-55)
Preseason Rank: 25
Imagine that: The team that never reached the playoffs with Ohtani on the roster is even worse without him. With Ohtani now playing for the other Los Angeles team and Mike Trout hurt again, the Angels are on pace for the franchise’s worst winning percentage since 1980.
27. Oakland Athletics (37-61)
Preseason Rank: 27
The Oakland fans who have supported this team for 57 years deserve better than to have their watch end like this. The A’s are set to move to Sacramento next season, and this is the way their Oakland tenure ends: not with a bang but with a whimper. The A’s are on pace to lose 100-plus games for the third season in a row, for the first time in Oakland and only the second time in franchise history (1919-1921 in Philadelphia).
28. Colorado Rockies (34-63)
Preseason Rank: 30
Replace Nolan Jones (3.6 WAR last season, negative-0.6 this season) with Brenton Doyle (2.9 WAR so far), and the 2024 Rockies look a lot like the 2023 Rockies: rotten overall, but with one young bright spot in the outfield. Maybe they’ll fetch a nice return for Ryan McMahon, if they trade the third baseman during a solid bounceback season.
29. Miami Marlins (33-63)
Preseason Rank: 23
I’ll say this for the Marlins: At least they’re not the White Sox. But compared to other NL teams, Miami ranks last in runs, last in OPS, last in slugging percentage, last in errors (meaning they’ve committed the most), and second-to-last in runs allowed. In 2023, the Marlins reached the playoffs for the first time in two decades, other than the shortened 2020 season; mere months later, they look as far away as ever from contention in a competitive NL East.
30. Chicago White Sox (27-71)
Preseason Rank: 29
Good news, White Sox fans! Your team is on pace for only 117 losses, and as long as the Sox don’t slip over the 120-loss threshold—the modern MLB record set by the 1962 Mets—they’ll be grouped with other run-of-the-mill terrible teams rather than remembered as a singular, historically awful loser. Over the last dozen years, the Astros, Orioles (twice), Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Athletics have all lost 110-plus games in a season, so the White Sox are just joining a growing party of misery.
