In 2023, we saw the Las Vegas Raiders jump all the way up to eighth in defensive efficiency after finishing 29th the season before. That type of improvement is relatively common on defense, which typically varies more from year to year than offense. Some years, a defense might be gifted a few turnovers. Other years, the same team might drop those potential interceptions. Some years, a defense faces a murderers’ row of opposing quarterbacks. Other years, it’s a bunch of backups. And as always, injury luck is one of the biggest determinants of success.
Keeping all that in mind, which defenses are most likely to rise as the Raiders did last season, and which are most likely to fall this season? Let’s rank them from no. 1 to 32.
Statistics from this article are from TruMedia or Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
1. New York Jets
They’ve played at a high level for two straight seasons, and I don’t see that changing in 2024. The Jets have one of the best corner trios in the NFL, led by Sauce Gardner. They have one of the best linebacker duos in the NFL in C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams. And they have one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL in Quinnen Williams. Talent at all three levels and scheme continuity from the previous two seasons should lead to great results once again.
The Jets finished third in defensive efficiency last season, and they didn’t get incredible injury luck or turnover luck—factors that tend to regress from one season to the next. In other words, there was nothing fluky about what we saw last year. As of this writing, the Haason Reddick saga continues to hang over them—he’s requested a trade and hasn’t shown up to training camp months after being traded to New York from Philadelphia—and that is a concern. But given the talent already on the roster, this still looks like it’ll be an excellent defense.
2. Cleveland Browns
A lot of the new-school defensive coordinators prioritize stopping explosive plays above all else. But Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is old school. Attack gaps, hit the quarterback, and play man coverage. Shout-out to my fellow olds who appreciate this throwback style of play.
The Browns had an average defense before Schwartz’s arrival, finishing 16th in 2022. Under Schwartz last season, it jumped all the way up to second. The Browns have an excellent cornerback trio in Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson Jr., and Greg Newsome II. And 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett headlines a group of defensive linemen that can wreck games.
What made the Browns’ performance last season so impressive was that they got unlucky in a number of categories. Only five defenses had worse injury luck than the Browns. Meanwhile, they had the NFL’s worst red zone defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns 71.4 percent of the time. If those things come back toward league average, this Browns defense could be even better in 2024.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The hard truth for the Ravens is that it’ll be nearly impossible to replicate their success from a season ago. According to the FTN Football Almanac, the 2023 Ravens had the eighth-best defensive season this century. Only five teams generated more expected points added on takeaways last season. They lost the architect of that defense, Mike Macdonald, and have replaced him with Zach Orr. Orr, a former Ravens linebacker who coached that position under Macdonald in Baltimore, could certainly be a nice fit, but stepping in and matching Macdonald’s feel for game-planning and play-calling is a big ask for a first-time defensive coordinator.
But looking at the 2024 roster, the spine of the defense remains strong. Defensive tackle Justin Madubuike earned a lucrative contract with his 13-sack season. Roquan Smith is the NFL’s second-best off-ball linebacker, behind Fred Warner. And do-everything safety Kyle Hamilton is one of the NFL’s best defensive players. The secondary is strong, and while the edge spot looks thin, the Ravens have a history of finding ways to generate a pass rush. Add it all up, and I see a group that will probably take a step back from last season but still perform like one of the league’s better defenses.
4. Dallas Cowboys
The biggest move the Cowboys made in the offseason was hiring Mike Zimmer to replace Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator. Zimmer has one of the most impressive résumés of any defensive coach in the NFL. In eight seasons as the Vikings head coach, Zimmer produced five top-10 defenses and four top-five defenses. The man can coach.
The Cowboys finished fifth in defensive efficiency under Quinn last season, but there’s some noise associated with that ranking. They had a league-high six defensive touchdowns, which is not something you can count on every season (teams had 1.9 defensive touchdowns on average last season). The numbers suggest they were overly reliant on takeaways and weren’t the most sound group on a down-to-down basis. Dallas ranked 26th in defensive success rate if we include both regular-season and playoff performance.
But there’s still a lot of talent on the defensive roster here. Seeing what Zimmer does with do-everything outside linebacker Micah Parsons will be fascinating. DeMarcus Lawrence continues to be an excellent no. 2 edge rusher. And this corner group—Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, and Jourdan Lewis—should create a lot of disruption. The Cowboys have to show they can stop the run, and the linebackers are underwhelming, but the combination of their playmakers with Zimmer has me buying in.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Surprise! As mentioned at the top of this piece, there’s quite a bit of variance with the top defenses year to year, and the fun part of this exercise is trying to identify a few units that could make a big leap even if they were bad the previous season. At the top of my list among those teams is the Seahawks.
This group stank last year, finishing 28th in defensive efficiency. Pete Carroll had a great run, but he just wasn’t able to figure out the next iteration of his defense after the legendary Legion of Boom’s reign ended. Mike Macdonald takes over as head coach; he is considered one of the best defensive play callers and most innovative minds in the league. He has previously shown that he can turn things around quickly. The Ravens finished 28th in defensive efficiency in 2021. The next season under Macdonald (when they got better injury luck), they finished eighth. And last year, Macdonald’s Baltimore defense finished first.
The cupboard isn’t bare in Seattle. The Seahawks have a number of guys on the defensive line—Uchenna Nwosu, Dre’Mont Jones, Leonard Williams—who have been good players in the NFL, and they spent a first-round pick on defensive tackle Byron Murphy II. They have young players in the secondary such as Riq Woolen and nickel Devon Witherspoon. And the Seahawks made moves at linebacker and safety in the offseason for players who will presumably fit Macdonald’s scheme.
The Seahawks will likely take some lumps early as they get acclimated to a new defense, but I expect this group to improve and be one of the biggest surprises in the league as we get into the second half of the season.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
As long as edge defender T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick are on the field, I’ll feel pretty good about this group. The Steelers had the sixth-best defense last season, and from a personnel standpoint, there’s reason to believe they’re even better set up for success this season. Pittsburgh signed former Ravens off-ball linebacker Patrick Queen in the offseason, and if cornerback Joey Porter Jr. can build off of a promising rookie season, he could be one of the NFL’s breakout stars in 2024.
The Steelers saw their depth tested last season, as only six defenses had worse injury luck. But they gained the fourth-highest EPA on takeaways. That’s not something you can typically count on from one season to the next. Pittsburgh was also fortunate to face the second-fewest snaps against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks.
Overall, I like the blend of youth and experience here, and I trust Mike Tomlin’s coaching to mask some of the roster shortcomings.
7. Houston Texans
This defense has undergone massive turnover from the group that finished 16th in efficiency last year. The Texans let edge defender Jonathan Greenard, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, and linebacker Blake Cashman, among others, walk in free agency. They made a big splash by signing edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks for Minnesota last season, along with defensive lineman Denico Autry and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
The Texans now have an excellent edge duo in Hunter and 2023 first-rounder Will Anderson Jr. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., the team’s first-round pick in 2022, played in just 20 games in his first two seasons, but when he’s on the field, he’s a difference maker.
Houston had some things working against it last year. Only four defenses had worse injury luck than the Texans. And they finished just 23rd in EPA gained on takeaways. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has a proven track record of getting the most out of his defenses. He produced top-five defenses in both of his seasons as the 49ers defensive coordinator. And the Texans improved from 28th to 16th in Ryans’s first season as their head coach. I’m expecting another jump in 2024.
8. Chicago Bears
It looked like a different defense after acquiring edge defender Montez Sweat in the middle of last season. The Bears finished the season ranked 17th in defensive efficiency, but if we focus only on Weeks 9 to 18 (after adding Sweat), Chicago ranked sixth in EPA per drive and ninth in success rate.
The strength of this defense is at cornerback. Jaylon Johnson is one of the NFL’s best corners, and he’s joined by ascending players Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon. The Bears are also strong at linebacker with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. The biggest question is whether they’ll have enough pass rush outside of Sweat. Per the FTN Football Almanac, even though the defense improved with Sweat, Chicago’s pressure rate bumped up from 32nd to only 25th.
There are also some regression factors at play here for Chicago. This defense had the seventh-best injury luck last season and gained the eighth-most EPA on takeaways. But I am buying that the young talent here will shine.
9. San Francisco 49ers
The numbers didn’t match the eye test for the 49ers defense last year. Statistically, it ranked fourth in efficiency, but if we include the playoffs, San Francisco ranked 23rd in success rate. Kyle Shanahan clearly did not see his defense as a trustworthy group, and he made a major offseason change by replacing coordinator Steve Wilks with Nick Sorensen shortly after the Super Bowl loss to Kansas City.
Sorensen has a lot of talent to work with in San Francisco’s front seven. Defensive end Nick Bosa and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave return, and the team signed veteran linemen Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins. And Fred Warner is still the best inside linebacker in the NFL. But there are plenty of reasons to think that this defense might get stung with regression. It had the sixth-best injury luck last season, and only four teams gained more EPA on takeaways. It’ll be starting this season without linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who tore his Achilles tendon in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Sorensen is a complete unknown as a defensive coordinator. He’s been with the 49ers as an assistant but has never before called plays. Given the setup, it feels like his no. 1 rule will be: Do exactly as Kyle Shanahan says.
Given the talent, this profiles as a high-floor group. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a step back from last season.
10. Detroit Lions
The Lions acknowledged a weakness at cornerback and essentially threw darts at it all offseason, hoping one of those shots would hit. They traded for veteran Carlton Davis III. They signed Amik Robertson. They used a first-round pick on Terrion Arnold and a second-round pick on Ennis Rakestraw Jr. If a couple of those moves work out, this could be one of the most improved positional units in the NFL.
The Lions ranked 13th on defense last year, and along with the personnel upgrades at corner, there are other reasons to believe that they could get some better luck in 2024 and leap into the top 10. Last season, 85 percent of their defensive snaps came against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks; that was second most for any defense and way above league average. Also, their defense had below-average injury luck, ranking 24th in the adjusted games lost metric.
Detroit has a couple of quality players up front in edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and defensive tackle Alim McNeill, but it’s not the deepest group. And while I like the corner additions, their only sure thing in the secondary is Brian Branch. I see a lot of variance with this group but am cautiously optimistic that it’ll be better than last season’s.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
This is another group that falls under the “will likely take a step back but still be really good” umbrella. Last season, the Chiefs produced what was easily the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era, ranking seventh overall in DVOA. They have a game wrecker in Chris Jones at defensive tackle, very good linebackers, young options at corner, and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL in Steve Spagnuolo.
Having said that, there are a few things that concern me. One, the Chiefs traded away one of their best players in cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. They have options at corner, but Sneed played at an All-Pro level last season and will be nearly impossible to replace. Two, the Chiefs got lucky in a couple of areas last season. They had the fourth-best injury luck of any defense, and they faced the fifth-fewest snaps against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks. I still see the ingredients for a very good defense; it just might not look quite as good as it did last year.
12. Minnesota Vikings
I love what we saw from defensive coordinator Brian Flores last year. Put last year’s Vikings defense under the direction of an average coordinator, and it probably would have stunk. Most coaches would have run their usual schemes and thrown their hands up, and everyone would have pointed to the lack of talent as the reason for their struggles.
But Flores understood that he gets paid to do more with less. He implemented a fun scheme where he sent the standard four rushers relatively infrequently—he both blitzed and sent only three rushers at high percentages. The key was not giving the offense a tell about which tactic he would deploy before the snap. That strategy led to the 11th-best defensive performance in the NFL last season.
In the offseason, the Vikings lost edge rusher Danielle Hunter, but they signed Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and drafted Dallas Turner in the first round. There is significant turnover, but I like this year’s pass-rush group more than last year’s.
Safety Harrison Smith is entering his age-35 season, and the Vikings have questions at corner (even after signing veteran Stephon Gilmore), but that was the case last year too. Bottom line: They have talent in the front seven, and I trust Flores to figure out how to make the pieces fit.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
It would probably surprise a lot of people to find out that the Jaguars had the 10th-ranked defense in the NFL last season. It might even surprise head coach Doug Pederson because he fired coordinator Mike Caldwell and replaced him with Ryan Nielsen, who directed the Falcons defense in 2023.
The Jaguars have some talent up front. They brought back edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen after his 17.5-sack season. Travon Walker, the no. 1 pick in 2022, had arguably the quietest 10-sack season in NFL history. And Jacksonville added versatile defensive lineman Arik Armstead from San Francisco. General manager Trent Baalke has dumped a lot of resources into the front seven, and that group will have to carry the Jaguars because they have serious questions at corner. Overall, I think there’s enough here for a slightly above-average defense.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
Has there been a bigger coaching upgrade in the history of the NFL than going from defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio? The Eagles made an in-season change last year, going from Sean Desai to Patricia, and the defense completely fell apart, finishing the year 29th in efficiency. You could watch football for another 100 years and not see a more confused group of players.
In addition to being poorly coached, the Eagles defense was also unlucky last season. It had the fourth-worst injury luck of any defense. In the offseason, the Eagles traded edge defender Haason Reddick and replaced him with free agent Bryce Huff. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, who was one of their most consistent players last season, retired. The never-ending rotating door at linebacker now includes Devin White and Zack Baun. And the Eagles completely remade their secondary, using top-40 picks on defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean while also signing safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
But how quickly can Fangio turn this group around? He hasn’t been as impressive in the last decade as he was when he was coaching the 49ers defense in the early 2010s. In his last eight seasons directing a defense—one with the Dolphins, three with the Broncos, and four with the Bears—he has produced one top-10 unit.
There’s certainly a scenario where the Eagles outperform this ranking: The young defensive backs play well. Jalen Carter makes the leap and emerges as one of the best defensive tackles in football. And Fangio shows he still has his fastball. But there’s also a lot of uncertainty. Like everything else with the Eagles, I see a high-variance group.
15. Las Vegas Raiders
Let me start with what I like. Edge defender Maxx Crosby is fantastic and almost never comes off the field. In the offseason, the Raiders added defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who played the best football of his career last season and also plays on every down. That duo forms a fun foundation up front, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham deserves credit for the job he did last season.
Now, just about everything else makes me a little nervous. The Raiders had a legitimately good defense last season, ranking eighth in efficiency. But they had a number of random factors working in their favor. The Raiders defense had the second-best injury luck, meaning its depth is likely to get tested a whole lot more in 2024. They also had five defensive touchdowns last season, second only to the Cowboys. Again, that’s something that’s unlikely to repeat (on average, teams had 1.9 defensive touchdowns). And finally, they caught a break with the quarterbacks they faced. Just 62.1 percent of the Raiders’ defensive snaps came against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks—fourth fewest for any defense.
From a personnel standpoint, the Raiders’ biggest question is cornerback. That’s something Graham will have to scheme around. Overall, I see a defense that is likely to take a step back from last season but still be solid.
16. New York Giants
There is potential here for an excellent pass rush. The Giants made a good trade for edge defender Brian Burns. And Burns, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, and third-year player Kayvon Thibodeaux should make for a tough group for opposing offensive lines to handle.
The Giants defense was more mediocre than terrible last season, finishing 21st overall. In the offseason, head coach Brian Daboll replaced coordinator Wink Martindale with Shane Bowen. Bowen spent the previous three seasons with the Titans, where his defenses ranked 10th, 19th, and 18th.
The case for the Giants being better than last season starts with the Burns addition. It’s also key for second-year corner Deonte Banks to make the leap. If that doesn’t happen, this secondary will be in trouble. The case against the Giants being better than last season has to do with takeaways. Last year, they gained the most EPA on turnovers of any defense. That is highly unlikely to repeat.
I like the pass rush. I like Bowen. And I like that the Giants have some young pieces with upside in the secondary. I think this can be a frisky unit.
17. Buffalo Bills
Last year’s Bills defense was a great example of a coach doing more with less. Buffalo was not very talented and got decimated by injuries, but Sean McDermott still coached the team to a no. 12 ranking in defensive efficiency.
The coaching job might be even more difficult with this year’s group. The team is in reset mode, with a number of veterans (such as safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, edge rusher Leonard Floyd, and corner Dane Jackson) no longer on the team. Linebacker Matt Milano, meanwhile, is out indefinitely with a biceps injury. Buffalo has some talent up front in defensive tackle Ed Oliver and defensive end Greg Rousseau, and it could be OK at corner. But safety looks potentially disastrous, and linebacker could be a problem too. Zooming out, the Bills defense is unlikely to get as lucky with turnovers as it did last season, when it had the second-highest EPA gained on takeaways.
The Bills have not had a truly bad defense since McDermott arrived in 2017. Their worst ranking during his tenure was 16th. So while I’ve got plenty of questions with this group, the ranking reflects the fact that McDermott usually figures it out.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have not had a below-average defense since Todd Bowles joined the organization in 2019. They finished 14th last season, and that was Tampa’s lowest ranking in the past five years. But I’m predicting a below-average finish this year, in part because they lost some of the core pieces—edge defender Shaq Barrett, linebacker Devin White, and cornerback Carlton Davis—this offseason.
There is still talent on this team with defensive tackles Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, veteran linebacker Lavonte David, and do-everything safety Antoine Winfield Jr. But I have concerns about the Bucs’ pass rush. When they didn’t blitz last year, the Bucs generated pressure just 28.2 percent of the time—29th in the NFL. The floor for this group is high, but the questions at pass rush and corner have me concerned. A slight step back would not be surprising.
19. New England Patriots
There were a lot of reasons why Bill Belichick’s tenure with the Patriots ended after a 4-13 season. But when it came to defensive game-planning and scheming, the man still had his fastball. The Patriots ranked ninth in defensive efficiency last year. What made that performance especially impressive was that the Patriots had the worst injury luck and the fourth-lowest EPA gained on takeaways for any defense.
Under normal circumstances, this is precisely the type of defense I’d predict to leap into the top five. But these are not normal circumstances. THEY LOST THE GREATEST DEFENSIVE COACH IN NFL HISTORY. Sorry for the caps. I am just blown away by any conversation about the Patriots defense that doesn’t include that minor detail.
From a talent perspective, the Patriots are without one of their best players in defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who is out indefinitely as he deals with a blood clot issue. Meanwhile, they traded edge defender Matthew Judon to the Falcons during training camp. They have some fun second-year players like defensive lineman Keion White and corner Christian Gonzalez, but this defense worked last year because the pieces fit, not because it was loaded with talent. I know head coach Jerod Mayo and new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington were previously on the staff, but until I see that they can give the Patriots an edge with their game-planning and scheming, I can’t put New England any higher than this.
20. Green Bay Packers
We have a new character in our NFL lives, and he could have a significant impact on who’s playing in the Super Bowl this season. His name is Jeff Hafley, and he is the new coordinator for a Packers defense that has been best known for consistently underperforming its talent. Hafley coached previously in the NFL as an assistant and was the head coach at Boston College the past four seasons.
The Packers finished 27th in defensive efficiency under Joe Barry last season. I love talking about coaches who do more with less. Barry, meanwhile, was a coach who did less with more. Green Bay couldn’t defend downfield passes or middle-of-the-field passes or screen passes. Just about every scheme worked against this defense last year. And it was also unlucky. Over 80 percent of the Packers’ defensive snaps came against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks—fifth most of any defense. They ranked bottom eight in both injury luck and EPA gained on takeaways.
Green Bay has an underrated pass-rush group. When rushing four or fewer, the Packers generated the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL last season. They have talent at corner, and they spent big on safety Xavier McKinney, who has the skill set and range to allow the Packers to play more single-high safety coverages.
If Hafley is an average defensive coordinator, this should be a solid defense. And if he can find ways to give it an edge schematically, I see enough talent on the roster for the Packers to make a monumental leap from last year.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals defense took a significant step back last season after a strong 2022 campaign. It struggled to fill the void left by veteran safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell—both of whom left in free agency. They were really bad against the run. And they faced the third-hardest schedule of opposing offenses.
So will things be different for Lou Anarumo’s squad in 2024? They moved swiftly to try to solve the safety issue, bringing Bell back and signing Geno Stone from the Ravens. And their schedule figures to be far less daunting. The run defense, however, is still a major question mark. The Bengals signed Sheldon Rankins, but he will be more impactful as a pass rusher. They also used two top-100 picks on defensive tackles, but it’s always risky counting on rookies to contribute.
I see a group that still has holes but is better positioned than it was last year, when it ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
22. New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen has been an excellent defensive coach for a long time (we can talk about his performance as a head coach at a later time). But last year, New Orleans slid from good to mediocre, finishing 15th in defensive efficiency. And that was with some random factors going its way. The Saints had the fifth-best injury luck of any defense, and they ranked 10th in EPA gained on takeaways.
The Saints are good at corner, and Demario Davis is still getting it done at linebacker. They signed linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and drafted corner Kool-Aid McKinstry with the 41st pick. New Orleans also added defensive end Chase Young, but the pass rush is still probably the biggest question mark with this group. On snaps where the Saints rushed four or fewer last year, opponents took, on average, 3.07 seconds to throw the ball—the second-longest time for any defense. They produced sacks just 5 percent of the time last season when they didn’t blitz; that ranked 29th.
There’s a scenario where the Saints’ recent draft picks and free agent additions give them a boost, but it’s more likely that they’ll take another small step back.
23. Tennessee Titans
The Titans made a big splash this offseason, acquiring cornerback L’Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs. That trade was just one part of a significant overhaul that included losing defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and replacing him with Dennard Wilson. Wilson spent last season with the Ravens and the previous two with the Eagles. He has never before been a defensive coordinator or a play caller in the NFL.
Wilson takes over a group that ranked 18th last season. The Titans had the best red zone defense in the NFL, which is not something you can count on from one season to the next. On the other hand, the Titans gained the second-lowest EPA on takeaways last season; that’s also unlikely to repeat.
The Titans have some talent up front with Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry, and Arden Key. In the secondary, they added vets like Sneed and safety Quandre Diggs to a group that includes promising nickel Roger McCreary. At the end of the day, the Titans have some players I like. But given the roster turnover and new coordinator, I’m not sure how it’ll all fit together.
24. Miami Dolphins
This is one of the hardest groups to project. The Dolphins defense was starting to come on strong under Vic Fangio last season before it was hit with a number of devastating injuries.
Miami ended up ranking 19th, but after the season, the organization decided to move on from Fangio, with reports surfacing about how he clashed with players.
Replacing Fangio is coordinator Anthony Weaver, who had been serving as an assistant with the Ravens. In Weaver’s one season as a coordinator with the Texans in 2020, the defense ranked 31st in efficiency. From a talent perspective, the Dolphins let defensive tackle Christian Wilkins walk in free agency. The edge pairing of Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb looks great on paper, but both are coming off of season-ending injuries. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks and cornerback Kendall Fuller were reasonable pickups. And Miami took fliers on older vets like defensive tackle Calais Campbell and safety Jordan Poyer.
While the Dolphins can hope for better injury luck, they very well could get worse turnover luck. Only the Giants and Bills gained more EPA on takeaways than the Dolphins last season. If the players take to Weaver more than they took to Fangio, and if the injured players can come back strong early in the season, I could see this group making a jump. But those are big ifs.
25. Los Angeles Chargers
There’s a part of me that wants to make the Chargers defense a sleeper pick to leap forward this season—based mostly on the upside of the coaching with Jim Harbaugh and new coordinator Jesse Minter. But when I look at the depth chart, it’s just impossible to get there. A great coaching job probably means fielding a mediocre defense.
The Chargers finished 26th on defense last year. That was despite facing the lowest percentage of snaps by opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks and having above-average injury luck. The Chargers didn’t have a lot of flexibility this offseason and weren’t able to significantly upgrade the roster. They still have some talent—edge rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, along with safety Derwin James—but I see a group that’s probably still a year away from making some noise.
26. Denver Broncos
Any time you give up 70 points in a single week, the defensive numbers at the season’s end probably won’t look that good. Denver’s defense finished 30th in efficiency. That was despite facing the third-fewest snaps against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks.
The optimistic case for the Broncos defense is that coordinator Vance Joseph has done more with less previously in his career. He won’t sit back and play passively. If the pass rush isn’t getting home (which was the case last year), he’ll blitz and play a high-variance style. Sometimes that will come back to bite him, but at least Joseph is willing to try to create some chaos.
Up front, the Broncos have a number of veterans who should be capable of at least offering competency. And Patrick Surtain II is arguably the NFL’s best corner. Overall, it’s an underwhelming group that lacks talent, but I think there’s enough here for Denver to be a little better than it was last season.
27. Indianapolis Colts
There aren’t a lot of surprises with a Gus Bradley–coached defense. They had the third-lowest blitz rate in the NFL last season. And they played zone at the highest rate. That formula got Indianapolis the 20th-ranked defense last season.
Bradley’s preferred play style is fine if you’re talented, but the talent here is mediocre. And edge defender Samson Ebukam—who had a team-high 9.5 sacks last season—suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in camp. The Colts probably need first-round pick Laiatu Latu to have an immediate impact for this pass rush to be above average. The secondary, meanwhile, comes with question marks. Overall, this looks like a group that could take a step back.
28. Atlanta Falcons
Last year, with Aaron Donald and a bunch of guys nobody had heard of before the season, Raheem Morris coached the Rams to the 22nd-ranked defense. That’s a good baseline to start with when discussing this Falcons team.
The big issue for the Falcons is pass rush. Atlanta traded for edge defender Matthew Judon, but he’s 32 years old and coming off of a season-ending torn bicep. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has had a great career, but he had 1.5 sacks in eight games last year, then suffered a season-ending ACL injury. It requires quite a leap of faith to think that this pass rush will impact games.
I think the Falcons have a better chance in the secondary. Safety Jessie Bates was excellent last season, and the addition of Justin Simmons in August gives Atlanta a reliable veteran duo. A.J. Terrell is an above-average starting corner, but the Falcons have questions at the other spots. Overall, this looks like a below-average group, but I don’t think it’ll be a complete disaster.
29. Washington Commanders
Dan Quinn had a (mostly) outstanding three-year run as the Cowboys defensive coordinator. The playoffs weren’t his finest moments, but the Cowboys finished top five in defensive efficiency every season under Quinn. Previously, during his head-coaching stint with the Falcons, Quinn’s defenses ranged mostly from uninspiring to flat-out bad. So did he become a better defensive coach in Dallas? Or did he just have more talent? We’ll get an answer to those questions this season when we see how the Commanders perform.
The ceiling for this group is low. The organization is in a transition phase, and there just isn’t much talent here. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen are a top-tier defensive tackle pairing. Frankie Luvu, who came over from Carolina, is a fun, playmaking linebacker. But other than that? This defense has major questions at edge rusher and in the secondary.
I believe in Quinn—both as a head coach and a defensive schemer—more than most, and it’s possible that some young players will emerge, but I just don’t see enough to work with to rank the Commanders any higher.
30. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams finished 22nd in defensive efficiency last year, and it’s pretty much impossible to make the case that they’ll be better. They lost Aaron Donald. Wait, let me repeat that for effect: THEY LOST AARON DONALD! OK, now I feel better. They are also replacing Raheem Morris with Chris Shula, who has never before been a defensive coordinator in the NFL. There’s more: The Rams benefited from having the best injury luck of any defense last season. Their depth is likely to get tested more in 2024.
OK, keeping all of that in mind, how can the Rams maintain their level of play from last year, or even improve? They definitely deserve credit for drafting and developing young players like defensive tackle Kobie Turner and edge Byron Young—both of whom played well last year. And they invested in more young players up front in this year’s draft, taking edge defender Jared Verse in the first round and defensive lineman Braden Fiske in the second. If Turner and Young build on last season, and if Verse and Fiske pop right away, this group has upside. It’s just always risky to count on rookies, and it’s fair to wonder how effective the returning players will be without Donald by their side. In the secondary, the Rams have had massive turnover and are counting on a bunch of veterans to offer an upgrade.
I’m not discounting the possibility that this will develop into a fun group that improves as the season goes on. But I think the most likely scenario is that the Rams defense struggles and is worse than last season.
31. Carolina Panthers
They traded edge defender Brian Burns and let linebacker Frankie Luvu walk in free agency. The Panthers added a bunch of veterans, including Jadeveon Clowney. But from a talent perspective, they’re probably worse than last season. And they weren’t very good last year—ranking 25th in efficiency.
It is fair, however, to point out that the Panthers are unlikely to get as unlucky as they were last season when they had the second-worst injury luck of any defense and the lowest EPA on takeaways. So worse talent, but probably a little bit luckier. Where does that leave us? Around the same range as last season. But given the talent deficiency, the floor here is low.
32. Arizona Cardinals
The hipsters will tell you that this defense did a lot of cool stuff schematically last season. The nerds will tell you that this was the worst defense in the NFL. So what needs to happen for us all to sit down, look at some spreadsheets together, have a couple PBRs, and find a middle ground?
There is a straightforward case for why the Cardinals defense will at least be better than it was last season. One, 92.9 percent of their defensive snaps came against opponents’ primary starting quarterbacks. That was by far the highest rate for any defense. Two, they had terrible turnover luck. Only four defenses gained less EPA on takeaways than the Cardinals. And three, they faced the hardest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. So even if the Cardinals trotted out the exact same players as last year, chances are they would get a little bit luckier and be a little bit better.
The problem? I’m not sure this group of players is much better than last year’s. Arizona made some uninspiring signings along the defensive line and at corner. It used a first-round pick on defensive lineman Darius Robinson and a second-round pick on defensive back Max Melton. It’s possible that those guys will be good right away, but that’s far from a given. A bad pass rush combined with unproven corners is a bad combination. Bottom line: I look at the depth chart and just have a hard time seeing anything other than one of the NFL’s worst defenses.
