The NFL is back. Pro football will return Thursday night, when the back-to-back defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens. But we’ve already got the 2024 season figured out. Here are our predictions for the season to come:
Playoff Predictions and Super Bowl Winner
Sheil Kapadia: Joe Burrow started only 10 games last season, and even when he was on the field he was hampered by an injury. And guess what: The Bengals still won nine games! Now they have an easy schedule, the offensive line could be the best that Burrow has ever played behind, and they bolstered their secondary in free agency. If you’re scared off by the fact that Burrow is coming off of a wrist injury, I’m not going to be able to convince you that this is a good pick. But Burrow played in the preseason and looked good. I’m crossing my fingers that he can stay healthy. Besides, if I pick the Bengals every year, I have to be right one of these times, right?
Steven Ruiz: That’s right. I’m picking against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. And going with the team that Kansas City beat on the road to get to last year’s Super Bowl. It’s easy to forget now, but that was a legitimately shocking win for Mahomes and Co. Baltimore was the league’s best team by a comfortable margin in 2023. Per FTN, the Ravens were historically good too. They finished with the fifth-best regular-season DVOA ever, behind only the 2007 Patriots, 1991 Washington, 1985 Bears, and 2010 Pats. Lamar Jackson is entering his second year in Todd Monken’s offense, and the defense is stacked once again (despite losing its coordinator in the offseason). This is the year.
Lindsay Jones: I don’t want February Me to be embarrassed that September Me tried to get cute and contrarian and pick against the greatest quarterback of this generation, even if that means picking Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to do something—three-peat—that’s never been done before.
Danny Kelly: You could make the argument that a handful of teams are deeper and more talented than the Chiefs, but none of those teams is led by Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has that Tom Brady–esque ability to see things most clearly and make the most magic in the game’s biggest moments—an edge that no other team has right now. It’s tough to pick against the two-time champs.
Danny Heifetz: I couldn’t decide what was more boring, picking the Chiefs to win again or picking another team just to be contrarian. I ultimately could not get past the fact that (a) the Chiefs have Mahomes, and (b) the Chiefs might have a better team this year than last year, when wide receiver drops alone cost them multiple games. It will be tough for noted Packers fan Lil Wayne when the Chiefs topple Green Bay for the three-peat and blast this song.
Austin Gayle: Will rookie second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia be a liability at left tackle? How quickly can Marquise Brown return to the field after his shoulder injury? Is the cornerback room good enough to survive without L’Jarius Sneed? Can 34-year-old Travis Kelce continue to stave off decline? Blah blah blah. Every roster in the NFL has questions, but only the Chiefs have a quarterback good enough that the answers don’t matter. It’s still Patrick Mahomes’s league.
Nora Princiotti: [Obligatory blurb about picking the Chiefs until further notice because I don’t want to feel silly.]
MVP
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Jones: He’s just going to win this essentially every other year for eternity, and the rest of us are just going to have to get used to it. The case in 2024 will be a revitalized down-field passing game (with plays drawn up by Taylor Swift, of course).
Heifetz: Whether he gets the award or not, nobody is more valuable than Mahomes.
QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Gayle: This is a selfish prediction. I just want to watch Joe Burrow play a full 17-game season and square off against Mahomes in the playoffs. Burrow and Tom Brady are the only two quarterbacks with a postseason win over Mahomes. Can you imagine waking up on a Sunday in January with a Burrow-Mahomes playoff game on the schedule? The Chiefs-Bengals “rivalry” is good for football. I’m just doing my part to will it into existence.
Kapadia: The MVP pick has had a predictable formula over the years: quarterback of the 1- or 2-seed. I’m high on the Bengals, so I’m going with Burrow. He is positioned to put up huge numbers with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and a solid offensive line.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Princiotti: These days, if you can stack up against the best AFC quarterbacks, there’s really no other relative competition in the NFL. Which makes the top of that conference the place to look for MVP candidates. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes—but the price of consistently being the best player in football is voter fatigue. Allen, on the other hand, hasn’t won MVP. He’s shuffled through offensive coordinators and lost Stefon Diggs. Even if those changes don’t prove to be major constraints, they’ll clear Allen’s path to get all the credit if the Bills offense is strong—and it hasn’t finished below fifth in yards per game in any of the past four seasons. The Bills are coming off yet another disappointing season, but barring an excellent and healthy Jets season, they’re still more than capable of winning double-digit games and getting a solid playoff seed—generally necessary for an MVP nod. Allen is not the absolute best quarterback in the AFC, but his path to this award is the clearest.
The Ringer’s 2024 NFL Rankings
Your hub for The Ringer’s NFL rankings has arrived. Here we’ll feature our Power Rankings, Trade Value Rankings, and, of course, QB Rankings. Check back every week during the season as we put the league in order.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Kelly: Stroud was a revelation last year, leading the Texans out of the cellar and straight into the playoffs as a rookie. Now, with a beefed-up skill group that adds Stefon Diggs to the equation, Stroud has a chance to make a second-year leap in leading the Texans to new heights. There’s really no ceiling for Stroud—not even the league’s highest accolade.
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Ruiz: I’m taking a long shot here. Sean McVay could have his best run game in years after bulking up the interior of the Rams’ offensive line. That should make life easier for Stafford. After a few years playing on hard mode behind a weak offensive line, the Rams QB could be in line for some of that easy production that Jared Goff used to rack up in the early days of the McVay era. If that sort of environment can turn a young Goff—before he developed a steadier hand in Detroit—into an MVP candidate, it should do the same for Stafford. I expect that the Rams’ shaky defense will put Los Angeles in enough shoot-outs to drive up Stafford’s numbers.
Offensive Player of the Year
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Gayle: Another selfish prediction: I want to see a receiver break 2,000 yards in a single season, and Hill is best positioned to make it happen. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is an offensive mastermind. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a quick-release robot who can (and will) throw to Hill all the time. And Hill will benefit from the attention that Jaylen Waddle will steal—an asset that no. 1 receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams, who play with weaker supporting pass catchers, won’t have.
Heifetz: Hill got 1,799 receiving yards last year on just 467 routes, 157 fewer than CeeDee Lamb. Hill has a serious chance to hit 2,000 this year if he plays 17 games.
WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Kapadia: The man has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Zach Wilson and a rotating cast of other bad Jets quarterbacks. That’s legitimately one of the most impressive feats by a player in recent memory. If the Jets can just get competent quarterback play from Aaron Rodgers, I think they’ll be funneling targets Wilson’s way, and he’ll show that he’s one of the NFL’s most talented wide receivers.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Princiotti: Running backs have won Offensive Player of the Year more than any other position—they account for 17 of the past 30 victors. Robinson is perfectly paired with Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson in Atlanta’s new system—the ground game will be important, and Robinson could fill a hybrid role like Christian McCaffrey’s in San Francisco.
WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Jones: Lamb’s going to put up wild receiving stats as he helps pad Dak Prescott’s résumé for a historic contract next offseason. And this is a regular-season award, so it won’t matter if that Cowboys offense disappears, as it always does, in January.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
Kelly: Hall posted over 1,500 scrimmage yards and scored nine times on one of the worst offenses in the NFL last year. Now he’s going to be playing with an actually functional quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. On a team that’s shown a willingness to give Hall heavy volume, he could go ballistic, both on the ground and through the air.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Ruiz: I am begging—BEGGING—the football gods to give us at least one healthy season for the Anthony Richardson–Jonathan Taylor backfield. We deserve this after getting teased last season when the two played just two snaps together. If those two are on the field, with run-game wizard Shane Steichen calling the plays, the Colts should have an elite rushing offense. Steichen was cooking with Richardson early in the season, especially in the red zone. Defenses will adjust to stop the QB runs, but that will just open up more space for Taylor. He’s a home-run-hitting back with a home-run-hitting QB next to him in the backfield. If Steichen steers red zone carries away from Richardson—who’s coming off an injury-shortened season—to Taylor, and drives up his TD total, the Colts back could have his most prolific season yet.
Defensive Player of the Year
Edge Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
Ruiz: Mike Zimmer is a madman. I don’t know whether the veteran coach still has what it takes to be a top defensive coordinator in today’s NFL, but I do know he can still draw up some gnarly blitzes—and probably has some diabolical shit planned for his new defensive star, Micah Parsons. The 25-year-old has come close to winning the award but has come up just short the last two seasons. With Zimmer’s support, this is the year he’ll finally break through.
Kapadia: I hate to go chalk, but Parsons has been knocking on the door for the past three seasons. I’m excited to see what Zimmer will do to unleash Parsons even more. I think he’ll lead the NFL in sacks and have an absurdly disruptive season.
Gayle: T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa have all already won DPOY. It’s Parsons’s turn. In just his age-25 season, Parsons is still improving as a player and is in his athletic prime. It’ll be tough sledding to get the sack numbers necessary to win the award if other Cowboys defenders don’t up their game to match his freak, but if there’s anyone who can overcome that, it’s Parsons.
Princiotti: Nine of the past 10 players to win DPOY were pass rushers. Parsons is the best pass rusher in the game, and Dallas’s defense revolves around him.
Edge T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kelly: This is boring, I know, but Watt has led the NFL in sacks in three out of the last four seasons. When he is healthy, he racks up a lot of the sexy defensive stats awards that voters like to see.
Edge Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders
Jones: I’m torn between Crosby and Parsons, but I couldn’t bring myself to pick two Cowboys for individual awards. It feels like Crosby is due—he’s had 27 sacks in the past two seasons, and with an elite defensive tackle in Christian Wilkins now playing alongside him, this could be the year Crosby gets 16-plus sacks.
Edge Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Heifetz: Now that Aaron Donald is retired, Garrett is the best defensive player in the NFL. T.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks last year, but Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew and the most impactful.
Coach of the Year
Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
Gayle: Jim Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s coached, and that won’t stop in Los Angeles. He and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will be a massive upgrade over former head coach and defensive play-caller Brandon Staley. That, plus quarterback Justin Herbert is one of the league’s true elevators at the position. I trust him to make do without a star-studded receiving corps and with an offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, who will be starving to run the football on every play. Harbaugh’s Bolts also have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2024, per Vegas’s projected win totals, which should smooth out a lot of the growing pains with the coach and roster overhaul.
Princiotti: Always count on Harbaugh to make a splash in his first year. The Chargers shouldn’t be competitive this season, but they could improve enough on last year’s five wins that it won’t matter.
Heifetz: This award usually just goes to a team that was better than expected. But if the Chargers go from last in the AFC West to a playoff spot under Harbaugh, he might get it out of sheer force of personality.
Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks
Kapadia: I think the Seahawks are going to be a surprise playoff team in the NFC. That defense needed a refresh, and that’s what Macdonald is going to provide.
Ruiz: This award always goes to the coach of the team that most overachieves, so we can pretty much eliminate all the coaches of the championship contenders. I’ve picked Seattle to make a run at a wild-card spot, and if that happens, it’s Macdonald’s award to lose. His reputation as a defensive genius will give him a head start in the race.
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Jones: I am afraid that LaFleur has moved into the Tomlin Zone—where a coach’s team wins enough year after year that he’ll never win this award because it always seems to go to either a new coach or one who led his team through adversity. That said, if Jordan Love and this extremely young Packers offense continues to ascend under LaFleur’s guidance and the Packers are one of the NFC’s best teams (as I’ve picked them to be), this feels like his year to win it.
Kelly: The Packers have an incredible young core on both sides of the ball and an ascending star quarterback in Love. If this team makes a big leap on offense, and crucially, shores up their defense, they’ll have a chance to improve dramatically from their 9-8 finish last year—and maybe even threaten for the top seed in the conference. LaFleur will finally get his long-overdue credit as one of the best young coaches in the game.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Kapadia: I wish I had a sleeper pick for you, but this is just the rare situation where a rookie quarterback is really set up well for success. I like the Bears defense. And I like Williams’s pass-catching options. If the Bears offensive line is competent, Williams is going to put up monster numbers, and Chicago is going to compete for a playoff spot.
Princiotti: If Williams can get the Bears to nine or 10 wins, this is his to lose.
Jones: Let’s not overthink this. Williams will be the best of the rookie QBs, plus he’s fun as hell to watch and his highlights will be everywhere.
Kelly: Williams is the easy favorite here based on narrative alone, with the top pick playing the role of Prince That Was Promised for a long-suffering Bears franchise. Williams’s out-of-structure brilliance and penchant for big, flashy plays will help as well—and he gets a big boost by landing with a team that has enough talent to challenge for the playoffs. If Williams can turn Chicago into a contender, he’ll run away with this award.
Gayle: Williams might already be a top-five quarterback in Bears history after his electric preseason, and his supporting cast is among the best for any rookie quarterback in the past decade-plus. Injury chance is the only reason to doubt Williams as the favorite to win OROY in 2024. Playoffs or not, Williams is going to put up numbers in Chicago in year one.
Heifetz: Williams is the overwhelming favorite based on betting odds, and for good reason: Bears fans are going to be saying he is the best quarterback in Bears history by Halloween. It’s just hard for rookie wide receivers to beat out this many rookie quarterbacks for this award, even receivers as good as Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ruiz: I’m not going to overthink this. Williams is the best player in the class, he plays the most important (and visible) position, and he has the best supporting cast of all the offensive rookies drafted in the top half of the first round.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
CB Terrion Arnold, Detroit Lions
Jones: He’s got longer odds to win this award than some of the pass rushers in the rookie class, but if he’s able to secure a few highlight-worthy interceptions and help fix what had been the Lions’ biggest defensive weakness, Arnold will have a good case.
Gayle: If Arnold is going to win DROY over a defensive lineman with a high sack total, he’s going to need a top-flight supporting cast to put him in advantageous positions to make plays on the ball. The Lions’ young, über-talented defensive line, led by former no. 2 pick Aidan Hutchinson, should take another big step forward in 2024, as will the secondary after adding veterans Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson in the offseason. Expect Arnold to take advantage of ample opportunity with all the defensive talent in Detroit.
DT Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts
Kelly: Latu was my top-ranked defensive player in this draft thanks to his quick first step, tenacious style, and graduate-level array of pass-rush moves. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to rush the passer in Indianapolis, and I think he’s gonna rack up sacks from the get-go.
Heifetz: A particularly hard pick for a rookie class whose top 10 was composed only of offensive players for the first time. Latu has top-five talent but fell due to medical concerns in the draft. But if he is good to go for this season, he’s the easy pick.
Edge Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings
Ruiz: Just reread what I wrote for my DPOY pick and replace “Micah Parsons” with “Dallas Turner” and “Mike Zimmer” with “Brian Flores.” The Vikings defensive coordinator isn’t going to stop blitzing and he’ll want to draw up pressures that will put Minnesota’s first-round pick in position to dominate early. An eight- or nine-sack season is on the table as long as Turner gets enough pass-rush snaps.
CB Byron Murphy, Seattle Seahawks
Kapadia: Mike MacDonald showed in Seattle that he knows how to set up defensive players for success. I think this Seattle defense is going to be legitimately good, and Murphy should be able to produce his share of disruptive plays.
Comeback Player of the Year
QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Kapadia: If he leads the Jets to the playoffs (I think they’ll get in!) after suffering the Achilles injury on the first possession of last season, Rodgers will be an easy pick.
Jones: If his other Achilles tendon survives MetLife’s turf for a full season, I don’t see how he doesn’t win it.
Kelly: The Jets assembled a veteran crew to help Rodgers back onto his feet in 2024, adding offensive line help in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses and a receiver in Mike Williams. Add those guys to an offensive unit built around two of the brightest young skill players in the game in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and Rodgers should have the support system for a renaissance performance this year.
Ruiz: Oh no, that means he’ll get to make a speech. Is it too late to change my pick to Justin Herbert?
Heifetz: This award feels like a race between the Achilles brothers of Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. Rodgers just needs to take the Jets to the playoffs to lock this up.
Princiotti: What, exactly, a player is supposed to be coming back from to win or qualify for this award is applied so inconsistently that it’s practically meaningless. That said, quarterbacks account for 10 of the past 16 winners, so that’s a good place to start. And let’s be honest, one quarterback was more notably out of commission last season than any other.
Gayle: It’d be damn good for content, so it gets my vote.
