The NFL makes its long-awaited return with back-to-back exciting prime-time matchups this week, starting with Thursday’s AFC championship game rematch between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, followed by a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles on Friday in the league’s first game in Brazil.
The Week 1 slate also brings us a wild-card playoff rematch between the Rams and Lions and a rematch of the pseudo–AFC South division title game between the Texans and Colts, eight months after Houston ended Indianapolis’s season.
In this column, I’ll break down each NFL game from a betting perspective every week, providing my thoughts on sides, totals, props, and more. There won’t be bets on every game, but I’ll give a sense of where I’ve already put money down, where I’m leaning on certain games, and some potential angles to consider. Week 1 is often one of my biggest cards of the year, and this season is no different.
Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 1 games, starting with Thursday Night Football—and this week, a Friday night special!—and then the games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already wagered on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.
Thursday (and Friday) Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
This is one of a handful of Week 1 matchups that’s a rematch of a game from late last season or in the playoffs. These repeat matchups allow us to assess how the market has changed for both teams since January. The flip on this game is pretty significant, for example. Baltimore closed -4.5 at home in the AFC championship game, implying that the Ravens were roughly three points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. With home-field advantage worth roughly 1.5 points in the NFL in 2024, the market is now saying that Kansas City is 1.5 points better than Baltimore.
That’s an almost five-point swing since January, and there have been only two football games played since then. Kansas City has improved its receiving corps (although Hollywood Brown won’t play against Baltimore), and now the market expects a bounce-back regular season from the offense, which struggled for the entire second half of the 2023 campaign.
The biggest question I have is about the Ravens’ offensive approach in year two under Todd Monken and whether the offensive line is good enough for Baltimore to run the ball consistently. The day after the AFC championship game, much of the fan base’s ire was directed at Monken for his complete abandonment of the run game once Kansas City took the lead, after scoring touchdowns on its first two drives.
Kansas City’s rush defense was and still is its weakness. Monken will likely go pretty heavy offensively with lots of 12 personnel—one running back and two tight ends—and lean on Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson in the run game. Kansas City emptied the tank on the opening two drives of that playoff game and then barely hung on to win, but I suspect that Patrick Mahomes will have more success through the air in this game.
Even if you think Baltimore’s defense will take a step back this season and that the offensive line has real holes, those are factors that have clearly been priced into the massive adjustment since January. While it stinks to sit out the first game of the NFL season, in my view the market is painted correctly. Instead of betting the full game, I’ll look to go back to a tried-and-true Kansas City second-half under, especially if the Chiefs lead at the half. According to the Action Network, the second-half under was 18-3 in Kansas City games last season.
Verdict: Pass, but look to bet the Chiefs’ second-half under.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
The Packers and Eagles finished 27th and 29th, respectively, in defensive DVOA last year. Both defenses were especially poor by season’s end, resulting in a defensive coordinator change for each team. Jeff Hafley came in from Boston College to run the Packers defense, and the Eagles hired Vic Fangio. Philadelphia spent a lot of draft capital—its first two picks—trying to beef up its secondary, especially at corner. Since the Eagles are relying on rookie corners (plus aging veteran Darius Slay), especially when linebacker remains a hole in this defense, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has an opportunity to use the depth and variety of the Packers offense to take advantage of Philadelphia’s defensive weaknesses.
Even though I expect Green Bay to be more aggressive defensively under Hafley than it was under Joe Barry, the Eagles have a clear advantage against Green Bay in the run game.
Both of these offenses have among the most talent and upside in the NFL. I’m especially interested in seeing whether Jalen Hurts is better able to throw to the middle of the field with DeVonta Smith deployed in the slot more often and since new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore relies on motion more than outgoing offensive coordinator Brian Johnson did.
We don’t know how much Green Bay will blitz Hurts in this game, but given how talented both of these offenses are, I expect early fireworks in Sao Paulo. Moore and LaFleur are both good at scripting early plays, and this first-half total should not still be sitting at 24.
If the Packers get to +3 across the board, I’ll be betting them against the spread as well. If not, they are an excellent teaser option in what should be a highly competitive Week 1 game. LaFleur is 13-2 against the spread in the first three weeks of the regular season, per Evan Abrams.
Verdict: Bet first half over 24 points (-110); bet Green Bay if it gets to +3 (-110).
Pass
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
This is one of the toughest games to bet given the uncertainty surrounding Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who has resumed his bizarre hold-in during Week 1 practices. On Monday head coach Zac Taylor said that Chase’s status for the New England game is a “day-to-day” situation. You should also have some apprehension about betting on Cincinnati to outperform its market expectations in September, given that Joe Burrow and the Bengals have had a 7-8-1 record in the opening four weeks of the season dating back to 2020.
New England’s starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, has generally been underrated by the betting markets throughout his career, but the Patriots’ offensive line and skill position groups are arguably the worst in the NFL.
Cincinnati is an excellent teaser option if you can get it between -7.5 and -8.5, which could happen if Chase doesn’t play. There are many games that are better to bet on than this one. The only way I’d consider betting it is to lay big points with the Bengals, and I’m unable to do that here confidently.
Verdict: Pass.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
On paper, the Bucs defense put up some impressive numbers last year, allowing the third-lowest red zone touchdown rate and 11th-fewest points per drive. But they also allowed the 10th-most yards per drive, so it’s possible there’s real regression coming for this unit, especially after cornerback Carlton Davis III was traded away.
Meanwhile, the Commanders defense still looks like a bottom-five unit in both the pass rush and the secondary. I’m not sure that quarterback Jayden Daniels, the no. 2 pick, will be all that efficient as a passer right away, but his ability to use his legs helps raise the floor of the Washington offense since Sam Howell was constantly getting sacked last year.
The problem for me with betting the over here is the number. While it sat at 42 points most of the offseason, it’s now up to 44. I think that the market is properly priced for this game, and if you hoped to bet the over, you missed your chance to get the best number, and the value just isn’t there now.
Verdict: Pass.
Lean
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
The market for this game has been all over the place, as both teams have gone through major changes this offseason. Chicago’s rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams, showed some impressive improvisation in the preseason, and the Titans have spent a ton of money to bolster their roster. For most of the summer, the total for this game was between 42 and 43.5 points.
The total has since risen to 45.5, and the Bears remain a 4.5-point favorite. Why the move to the over? Both quarterbacks are expected to play a high-risk style that will increase explosive offensive plays, but it will also increase the risk of turnovers and short fields on the other side. Tennessee’s Will Levis had the highest average intended air yards in the NFL last year, and Williams held the ball as long as any quarterback in the preseason.
The market is also reacting to the expectation that the Titans will become more pass heavy under new head coach Brian Callahan, especially when compared to the very conservative nature of outgoing head coach Mike Vrabel.
It’s usually better to play against these major market moves at a certain point because the pendulum tends to swing too far in one direction. The total on this game would qualify as a textbook example of a pre–Week 1 overreaction to a projected change in a team’s play style. It would be under or nothing for me, as I’m also lower than the market on both Chicago and Tennessee and have no opinion on taking a particular side at the current price.
Verdict: Lean to the under at 45.5 or more.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Another game in which we have two new defensive coordinators implementing entirely different defensive schemes and facing quality pass offenses in the first week. Ryan Nielsen is the new coordinator for the Jacksonville defense, and that unit is expected to play a lot more man coverage and be a lot more aggressive. I cannot imagine opening your defensive coordinator tenure with a more difficult game than a man-heavy scheme at Miami in September.
The forecast calls for 88-degree heat and 70 percent humidity, creating the potential for real exhaustion for both defenses as the game progresses. Jacksonville should be pretty pass heavy offensively, and the Dolphins defense isn’t close to full strength right now.
Everything in the analysis of this matchup projects toward points, and even though the market had adjusted upward and is nearing a line of 50 points, it would be a surprise to me if this game didn’t hit that over. As the heat and humidity wear down the pass rushes and both defenses adjust on the fly, the offenses could have a field day here.
Verdict: Lean over 49 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
The Art Smith revenge game! The season-long betting market has moved hard against Pittsburgh in the last week due to the Steelers’ declining offensive line health, but the market hasn’t moved much for this game. Now, Smith, the Steelers’ new offensive coordinator, faces the team that fired him after last season. This is a tough matchup for me personally; I had hoped to bet against both teams early in the season because of all the turnover. Atlanta has a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new 36-year-old quarterback coming off a major injury, and it faces Pittsburgh’s havoc-inducing defensive line. In addition to Smith, the Steelers have a new quarterback, are dealing with offensive line injuries, and remain shorthanded at receiver after they weren’t able to pull off a trade for Brandon Aiyuk.
While I think that good offenses will have their way with the Atlanta defense this season, there’s basically zero evidence that Pittsburgh’s offense will be close to league average in 2024. The Steelers hoped first-round pick Troy Fautanu would start at left tackle, but he missed too much time in camp and might be a game-time decision on Sunday. And interior offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo is likely out for this game, while Nate Herbig definitely is.
Even with the addition of Matthew Judon in a trade from New England last month, Atlanta’s pass rush, which was dead last in win rate last year, projects to be mediocre yet again.
This looks to be a classic Mike Tomlin game, with scoring in the high teens and the outcome decided late in the fourth quarter. I definitely wouldn’t want to lay points with the uncertainty surrounding Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. It’s under or nothing.
Verdict: Lean under 42.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Both offenses in this game have a lot more questions than answers. Is Justin Herbert 100 percent healthy? Did the Raiders make the correct quarterback choice out of training camp? Is rookie Ladd McConkey really the no. 1 wide-receiving option for Herbert? How run heavy will the Chargers be under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman? All of these questions point in the same direction: toward the under (and tangentially, the Raiders). The market moved down on this total from 43 points and is now at or past the key number of 41.
The bottom could still absolutely fall out for the Raiders, whose vibes out of camp seemed as low as those of any team in the league. Antonio Pierce and the Raiders ran up the score on the Chargers in the last meeting between these two teams last season, when he was the interim head coach. I’m willing to bet that Harbaugh will remind the Chargers of that many times this week, even if he wasn’t the coach when that Thursday night 63-21 debacle happened.
The Raiders fit the divisional underdog trend, but I’ve got no interest in this game unless the total hits 41.5 again, in which case I’ll bet the under.
Verdict: Lean under 41.5.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+1.5)
It would probably shock you to find out that this is Daniel Jones’s sixth year as an NFL starter. It certainly doesn’t seem like he’s been around that long. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 5.2 after more than 1,900 passes in his career. That ranks him below Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky, and he is just in front of Matt Cassel. When you throw in his ballooning sack rates (15.8 percent last year), you see why the contract the Giants gave him in 2023 has not aged well. From a quarterbacking perspective, there’s not much of a gap between Jones and Sam Darnold, who is trying to resurrect his career in Minnesota (5.02 career ANY/A). The advantages for the Vikings in this matchup are across the rest of the roster, and they should be more of a road favorite than their current pricing suggests.
For me, there is one major mismatch in favor of the Vikings in this game. Minnesota has one of the better offensive skill position groups in the NFL and will go up against a weak Giants secondary. The Giants project to have one of the better pass rushes in the NFL, but Minnesota is well above average at both tackle positions, with Christian Darrisaw graded as the fifth-best tackle pass blocker by Pro Football Focus last year.
Bottom line, Minnesota has the much better offensive line and receiving options. I’ll ride with the likelihood that Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will have Jones seeing ghosts by the third quarter.
Verdict: Lean taking the Vikings moneyline (-130), but I would feel more comfortable waiting to see if there is movement toward the Giants by Sunday.
Pick
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
After hours of painful research into the NFC South, I’ve developed a potentially profitable betting system and discussed it with colleague Austin Gayle on our new podcast, BreadZone. What if we bet the underdog on the moneyline in every NFC South divisional matchup? I have a feeling that by January we’ll come out on top by betting into this chaos theory, given how low I am on the three top contenders and how Panthers curious I am. Since 2014, underdogs in divisional matchups have been 37-15-1 against the spread in Week 1, per Evan Abrams of the Action Network. That trend would apply to Carolina, Indianapolis, and Las Vegas in the opening week of the 2024 season.
New Orleans’s offensive line issues are in danger of completely preventing the offense’s ability to move the ball consistently. Last season, the Saints were 19th in expected points added per rush and 22nd in rushing success rate, and according to PFF’s charting, they were also 25th in pass blocking. Now, they are also replacing injured tackle Ryan Ramcyzk with the previously benched Trevor Penning. Even with a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, replacing Pete Carmichael, it’s hard to scheme around such a clear deficiency.
Verdict: Bet Carolina moneyline (+176), or +3.5 (-104) if you’re more risk averse, to kick off BreadZone’s NFC South betting system.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
Houston could certainly be one of the most heavily bet sides across the NFL Week 1 slate, with a popular Super Bowl contender laying less than a field goal against Indianapolis, which saw its young quarterback ride the training camp and preseason roller coaster. The Texans beat the Colts when they played in Week 18 last season, and while the Texans were offensively shorthanded in that game relative to where they are now, the Colts also started Gardner Minshew and were 1.5-point underdogs at home.
What has changed since that meeting? For me, not all that much. The Texans had a blowout win and a blowout loss in the playoffs following that narrow Week 18 win, when Indianapolis had more total yards, averaged more yards per play, and largely controlled the line of scrimmage.
The Texans can’t possibly be as run heavy on early downs as they were last year, right? If so, we must start asking questions about offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Assuming Houston throws more, with a deeper pool of receiving options for C.J. Stroud, it’ll be a major mismatch against the Colts secondary in Week 1.
It’s still hard to know exactly what the Colts will get from second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, but I expect them to play as fast as possible in year two under head coach Shane Steichen while exploiting what I see as Houston’s biggest weakness: the run defense. The total opened at 48, and I’d bet the over as it stands now.
Verdict: Bet over 48.5 (-115).
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
When looking at this matchup, it’s important to remember just how different the Cowboys offense was on the road last year and how much better the Browns defense was when playing at home.
Cleveland allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt on the road last year and 4.7 at home. The run defense held up better at home (3.9 yards per carry) than it did on the road (4.7) as well. The Cowboys passing game heavily relies on cadence and timing—remember “Yeah, here we go!”—and Dak Prescott had a much more difficult time operating that way away from AT&T Stadium, averaging nearly 2 fewer yards per attempt in away games last season.
That said, it feels like too many people seem to be writing off the Cowboys, and that’s shown up in the betting markets this summer. Their win total opened at 10 and has been bet down to 9.5 now. This game has flipped; Dallas was favored this summer, but now, the Cowboys are 2.5-point underdogs.
But no NFC team has won more regular-season games in the past three years than the Cowboys, and the concerns about the offensive line should be alleviated by how well the unit graded out in the preseason and how it appeared in training camp. Cleveland has as tough of a defensive line as Dallas will see all year, and Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has plenty of experience against Dak Prescott from his time coaching in Philadelphia.
With Cleveland struggling to find a healthy starting five on its offensive line, this game should be an ugly defensive battle, with both D-lines wreaking havoc.
Verdict: Bet under 42.5 and tease Dallas up from +2.5 to +8.5.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
My love for the Seahawks in the season-long futures market correlates directly to how much I like them in the Week 1 market, where the projected spread in my personal power ratings suggests that they should be favored by more than seven in this game. A lot of this is because of how skeptical I remain about whether new Denver starter Bo Nix’s short and underneath passing style from college can translate to the Broncos, who have a very limited roster of offensive skill position players. The Chargers and Patriots are the only two teams with worse offensive supporting casts. Denver is likely to be extremely run heavy, and Seattle’s run defense should be improved.
So much of what we’ve heard about Seattle in training camp and the preseason has been hype about the run game and Kenneth Walker. Last season, Denver finished 24th in rushing success rate allowed. The biggest offensive weakness for Seattle is the offensive line, and the Broncos aren’t poised to take advantage of that.
The Broncos likely have to blitz to apply pressure on the quarterback, and outside of cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the secondary isn’t talented enough to keep up with the deep Seattle receiving group. Denver’s defense finished 2023 30th in pass rush win rate, and Geno Smith averaged 8.4 yards per attempt when not pressured last year.
Additional tip: The overwhelming majority of the players in your survivor pool will pick the Bengals to beat the Patriots, so you won’t be getting good value if you pick with the pack. I typically like to avoid road teams and divisional games in survivor, and Seattle should actually be your first choice in this pool. I’ll use Cincinnati later in the season.
Verdict: Bet Seattle -5.5 (-120).
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Buffalo is poised to be another potentially slow-starting team as it sorts out all of the roster overhaul it had in the offseason. Most of its sluggish start in 2023 came down to lousy turnover luck and a ton of close losses, but I also think that there are real questions about how well the Bills will perform covering the bigger spreads this season, given how run heavy they were down the stretch last year.
The Bills have lost defensive leader Matt Milano to injury yet again, and there’s a ton of shuffling in the defensive backfield. Arizona might have a bottom-five defense again, but the offense has real upside this year and could be among the top 10 or 12 units thanks to upgrades at receiver and an underrated run game that finished sixth in EPA per rush last year.
The total will be difficult to gauge in this game because both offenses are too run-first to reliably score a lot of points. I think the best way to play this is to dive into individual props and lean into my expectation that the Bills won’t ask Josh Allen to do too much in the passing game. If Buffalo and Arizona are both having success on the ground, Allen will have fewer possessions to work with. It’s hard to see an explosive passing game from the Bills unless they fall way behind early.
Verdict: Bet Josh Allen under 256.5 passing yards (-110).
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
These two teams met in the wild-card round in Detroit last season, and the total for that game closed at 53 points. (The Lions were a three-point favorite.) Even though the game ultimately went under the total, that was because of red zone inefficiency more than anything else. Both teams moved the ball at will, and the Lions’ run defense stiffened up to prevent the Rams from winning in the closing stretch.
Once again, we ask what has changed since that January meeting. The Lions attempted to bolster their secondary after it was the team’s biggest liability last season. The Rams, meanwhile, lost future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. They already had questions about their run defense with Donald and are sure to have even more issues without him.
If the Rams get into a negative game script on Sunday night, they can still turn to Matthew Stafford and his multiple talented receiving options against the untested Detroit secondary. The Lions will want to play a lot of man again, and while there’s more talent in the secondary now than there was in January, I expect that Sean McVay will be able to scheme receivers open.
Detroit’s offensive line against Los Angeles’s defensive line is one of the bigger unit vs. unit mismatches in the Week 1 slate, which will be clear on the scoreboard.
Verdict: Bet Detroit team total over 27.5 (-110).
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
No single-game spread in all of Week 1 has moved more than Monday’s game between the Jets and 49ers. San Francisco was as high as -6 early this offseason, and now the Super Bowl runner-up is down to -4.5. San Francisco left tackle Trent Williams was a holdout for all of the preseason but returned to the team on Tuesday after nearing a resolution to his contract dispute. His return to the offensive line is critical. In each of the two games he missed time in last year because of injury, San Francisco failed to reach 20 points. The rest of the offensive line has major question marks, and he’s the glue that holds the group together. I’m not one to rely too much on preseason results, but it was glaring how much trouble the 49ers had blocking without Williams last month. Now, San Francisco comes up against one of the best defensive lines in the entire league. The 49ers bullied a lot of the top teams in the NFC last year, but remember how much they struggled offensively against top-tier defenses like Baltimore and Kansas City?
In reality, so many of the league’s top defenses were in the AFC last year. Who played good defense in the NFC? Philadelphia, Detroit, and Green Bay each had bottom-12 defenses by EPA per play and were playoff teams. The Jets have an incredibly well-rounded defense, and the 49ers have much to sort out offensively. Anything over a field goal is good for me to bet on the Jets on Monday.
Verdict: Bet Jets +4.5 (-115).
Each week, I’ll keep a running list of the bets referenced above for transparency. Here’s where my money is in Week 1 so far, with the numbers I got before lines moved:
- Eagles-Packers: first half over 24 (-120)
- Lions: team total over 27.5 vs. Rams (+102)
- Josh Allen: under 256.5 passing yards vs. Arizona (-110)
- Seahawks: -6 vs. Broncos (+100)
- Panthers: +4.5 vs. Saints (-110) and moneyline (+176)
- Cowboys-Browns: under 42.5 (-110)
- Vikings: moneyline vs. Giants (-120)
- Texans-Colts: over 48.5 (-110)
- Jets: +3.5 vs. 49ers (-105)
