Just because every NFL team now has two regular-season data points instead of one doesn’t mean it’s not still the peak of overreaction season in the betting markets. Underdogs had a dominant Week 2 in the market, with 11 underdogs covering the spread and eight winning outright. So much of what we saw in Week 1—Cowboys and 49ers dominance plus Browns and Falcons disasters—proved to not be representative at all of the Week 2 performances.
Before you consider writing off a team that is 0-2, it’s important to note that historically, these teams tend to perform well in Week 3. According to Action Network’s BetLabs database, since 2010, 0-2 teams are 53-32-2 (62.4 percent) against the spread in Week 3 when facing a team that has already won a game.
Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 3 games, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night Football
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5)
New England has a rookie head coach in his first Thursday-night, short-week road game. Combined with the Patriots’ injury pileup, this has the makings of a difficult spot for them. All five Patriots offensive linemen were on the Tuesday injury report, and starting left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow didn’t participate in practice at all. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley has also been ruled out for the rest of the season, and half of the Patriots secondary was limited in practice.
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It’s another prime-time home opener for the Jets (though hopefully Aaron Rodgers can play more than one series this time), and New York’s offense did seem to click into gear in the second half of the comeback win against the Titans on Sunday.
The Jets defense has been just average against the run, which would suggest the Patriots have a path to running a ball-control, grind-it-out offensive game. I suspect the under will be a popular wager for many, but the total is a bit lower than it should be. Not enough for me to bet on it, though, so I’ll be passing on the first game in Week 3.
Verdict: Pass.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
My first reaction to this line was: “Wait, how many points is the Cleveland offense laying?” Betting on the Browns offense to win with margin feels difficult unless the defense is chipping in with turnovers or points. The Browns managed to score 16 offensive points in the win at Jacksonville, and the offense was legitimately good in the first half, with 13 points on three drives of 40-plus yards. The second half looked a lot more like Week 1, though. Only Denver, Carolina, and Chicago are producing fewer yards per drive through two weeks. The Browns are 29th in offensive EPA per drive, as well.
Hopefully the Giants will have a healthy kicker on the roster this week. It’s funny; they went from 32nd in offense in Week 1 by EPA per drive to third in Week 2. That’s certainly a commentary on the Commanders defense, not some newfound success for Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll.
One concern for Cleveland should be that the elite defense has looked anything but through two weeks. Cleveland’s defense is middle of the road in efficiency metrics and 21st in pressure rate thus far. It would be Giants or nothing for me, given Cleveland’s offensive issues, but there are better games to bet on than this one.
Verdict: Lean Giants +6 or better.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
It’s a tough situation for the Eagles, who have to travel to New Orleans on a short week after their collapse against the Falcons on Monday night. They will likely be without A.J. Brown for the second consecutive week, and it was evident how much they missed his offensive explosiveness last week. Jalen Hurts struggled to complete passes over 20 yards and averaged only 6.1 yards per attempt. They relied heavily on the run game, short passes, and Hurts’s scrambles to move the ball. Philadelphia found success with long, methodical drives, which will likely be the game plan in Week 3.
There are also concerns with the Eagles defense. Atlanta scored on five of its final six full offensive possessions, and the Eagles’ defensive line struggled to stop the run or generate a pass rush. The Vic Fangio scheme won’t be effective if the defensive line can’t disrupt opposing offenses. Philadelphia ranks 30th in EPA per drive allowed through two weeks, and the market has lost confidence in the Eagles.
The Eagles were initially favored by 2.5 points on the road, but that has shifted, and New Orleans is now nearly a field goal favorite. The time to bet on New Orleans for Week 3 has likely passed.
Verdict: Pass.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Each time the market has tried to move back to Houston -3 flat, it takes Minnesota money. There’s real market respect for the Vikings, who were projected to finish last in the NFC North before this season and are now catching less than a field goal against one of the top contenders in the AFC.
The Texans’ excellent offensive performance against the Colts doesn’t look nearly as impressive now that we’ve seen the Colts defense look pedestrian in Week 2. Now, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will go on the road to face one of the best defensive coordinators in football. Brian Flores turned water into wine last season and transformed Minnesota’s defense from one of the league’s worst units into a league-average unit. Now, with more talent on the defensive side of the ball, I’m buying the upside for the Vikings in year two of the Flores scheme.
He effectively rattled Brock Purdy with designed blitzes in Week 2 and forced the 49ers’ juggernaut offense into just an average offensive performance. The Texans are still too run reliant on early downs, and the second-half struggles against the Bears at home on Sunday night showed that this offense is still a tier below the elite for me. I’m betting against the Houston offense facing Flores on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Texans team total under 23.5 (+100).
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
As a bettor of the NFL, everything I believe in should lead me to bet on the Denver Broncos this Sunday. It’s a matchup between the 0-2 team and the 2-0 team: Denver is the underdog who has been written off due to underperformance, while the Buccaneers have exceeded preseason expectations and are coming off of a big road win in Detroit. One of the key principles of sports betting is to buy low and sell high, and right now, there are few teams lower than Denver and few higher than Tampa Bay.
Although the Buccaneers defense has some weaknesses, I have doubts about Bo Nix’s readiness to start NFL games, as his performances have been third-worst only behind Bryce Young and Caleb Williams up to this point in the season. While sharp bettors may consistently bet on Denver at +7, I would need more than seven points to back the Broncos in this situation.
Tampa Bay’s offense is still struggling to establish a running game, and its defense is having trouble stopping the run, which could help level the playing field considering its significant advantage in the passing game.
Verdict: Lean Broncos at +7.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Malik Willis proved he could be an effective stopgap game manager in an elite offensive scheme for one week, especially when facing a struggling Indianapolis run defense. Matt LaFleur turned up the creativity and ran all over Gus Bradley and the Colts at home. Trying to replicate that performance on the road against a much tougher Tennessee defensive front seems much more difficult.
I understand this is the Malik Willis revenge game, but the Packers offense had almost everything go right last week and still managed just 16 total points. You can expect them to run the ball as much as possible to protect Willis. Green Bay ran the ball nearly 10 percent more than every other team in the NFL in Week 2, and LaFleur’s offense was a full second slower than every other offense. The Packers have generally been a slower-paced team during his tenure, but last week, they took that to a whole new level. The Titans are also among the slower teams in first-half pace.
Will Levis has shown through two weeks that it’s ingrained in his DNA to be careless with the football. But if we were ever going to see Levis try to rein in his wild attempts at hero ball, this might be the week, given how publicly critical of Levis head coach Brian Callahan has been.
All of this points toward a grinder of a game that is quite low-scoring. Even if the Titans can sort out their punt protection unit, this total is still too high at 36.5 with Willis and Levis.
Verdict: Bet under 36.5 points (-110), but wait to see if it ticks back to 37 first.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
We have a classic “stoppable force meets movable object” matchup as the Bears’ anemic offense takes on the sieve of the Colts defense in Indianapolis. The Colts will be without star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, as he was placed on injured reserve, and the front seven of the Indianapolis defense has been called into question after Green Bay ran the ball 53 times for 261 yards in Week 2.
Chicago has been one of the three worst offenses, next to Carolina and Denver, in many key metrics, such as EPA per drive and yards per drive. The Bears have averaged 2.2 adjusted line yards on offense, meaning their offensive line has generated no push at all in the run game. That’s the worst in the NFL, and the second worst is the Dolphins, at 2.9.
This is a classic all-in motivation spot for the 0-2 team at home. Both sides entered the regular season with similar preseason win totals, but the Colts offense is actually the more consistent and explosive unit in this game. Indianapolis has barely been on the field offensively from a plays and time-of-possession standpoint, but the offensive line metrics look elite, and the Colts are first in EPA per play on first down. That intrigues me enough to bet them at home at this price.
Verdict: Bet Colts moneyline (-122).
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Given the conservative nature of these two coaches, the lack of explosiveness from the two offenses, and the injury to Justin Herbert, this game will probably resemble football in the 1960s more than football in the 2020s. The Chargers have the best EPA defensive metrics in the NFL by far, but they haven’t faced an offense that will consistently challenge them. That will still be true after Week 3. While Herbert doesn’t seem to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game, he did get rolled up on and walked with a limp following the win against Carolina.
Through two weeks, the Chargers rank third in percentage of rushes, while the Steelers rank second. The Steelers aren’t utilizing the middle of the field with Justin Fields and aren’t generating many explosive plays. It may sound ridiculous to bet the under on a total this low, but these two offenses are among the 12 with five or fewer plays of 20-plus yards through two weeks.
I’d bet the under at 35.5 or better.
Verdict: Bet under 35.5 (-110).
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Another week, another market overreaction to a quarterback injury. Just like the market moved too far against Willis and the Packers, it also initially moved too far against Miami. Seattle was favored by as much as 6.5 points early in the week but has since been bet down to the current -4.5 line.
My main concern about the Dolphins in relation to the market is how weak their defense has looked in the first two weeks. Jalen Ramsey and Jordan Poyer struggled in the secondary against the Bills, and the Miami defensive line was dominated in the trenches. After two weeks, Miami ranks second to last in offensive line yards and 20th in defensive adjusted line yards. The Dolphins won’t be able to take advantage of Seattle’s weakness along the offensive line, and a trailing game script on the road is not the ideal situation to trust Skylar Thompson. If the line is at six or better, I’ll reluctantly bet on Miami. Otherwise, I’ll pass and hope Seattle goes 3-0 to continue its quest for the division title and the playoffs.
Verdict: Pass.
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
The betting market quickly shifted from Panthers +7 to Panthers +5.5 once Carolina benched Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton. The total rose to 40.5, indicating that the market sees Dalton as an upgrade over the 2023 no. 1 pick. There are two key factors that would scare me away from betting on the Raiders as a favorite.
First, Las Vegas struggles to run the ball. The Raiders rank last or close to it in every metric, from success rate to yards before contact to EPA per rush. While the Panthers’ defensive line has been weak in the first two weeks, it may put in a stronger effort with Dalton replacing Young.
The second concern is that the Raiders only managed to make a comeback against Baltimore because Maxx Crosby and the defensive line exploited a weak Ravens offensive line. In contrast, despite its flaws, Carolina boasts a top-five offensive line pass block grade, according to PFF.
I’m still hesitant to bet on the Panthers at +5.5, but I anticipate they’ll put up a strong performance in this game.
Verdict: Pass unless Carolina is +7.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5)
The injury report for this game resembles a grocery list, with the 49ers missing Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey. Despite San Francisco’s depth being tested, it’s still in better shape than its division rival, the Rams, who will be without Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and offensive linemen Jonah Jackson, Joe Noteboom, and Steve Avila.
The Rams’ offensive line performance, according to PFF grades, has been significantly worse than those of other teams in the first two weeks. Even with Alaric Jackson returning from a suspension, the Rams offensive line is not expected to perform well in this game.
Although Matthew Stafford showed offensive prowess in Week 1, the Rams struggled once Kupp was out of the game. They had difficulty moving the ball against the Cardinals and are unlikely to find success against the improved San Francisco defense.
The total for this game was initially set at 46 but has since been lowered to 43.5. The Rams’ defensive metrics are concerning, and the total may have dropped too low. The Shanahan scheme could still score 30 points, even with the injuries.
Verdict: Lean over 43.5.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
Arizona is likely to be a popular underdog in Week 3 since the Cardinals looked so dominant against the injury-ravaged Rams just one week after the Lions barely squeaked by the same Rams in overtime at home.
My question is: How will the Cardinals make any stops in this game? The Lions finished their home game against Tampa Bay with just 16 points but were able to move the ball up and down the field the entire game. The only reason the Lions lost was because they scored just one touchdown on seven red zone trips. They had one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL last year, so I won’t overreact to a couple of bad games.
Detroit continues to have an elite rushing offense, ranking first in EPA per rush, and it’s able to control the game through its offensive line. Jared Goff hasn’t looked sharp in the first two weeks, but the Cardinals defense isn’t known for blitzing, generating pressure, or throwing a lot of coverage wrinkles.
This might be the most watchable Sunday game, with the total being three points higher than every other game, but it’s not the most bettable for me. Kyler Murray should find success against the Lions secondary and keep the backdoor cover in play throughout the game.
Verdict: Lean Lions at -2.5 or better, pass at -3.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
Dallas is at home for the second straight week after the Saints torched the Cowboys defense with touchdowns on six consecutive drives to begin their Week 2 game. I know that the scoring environment across the league is way down due to lengthy and methodical drives, plus red zone inefficiency, but this total seems too low for an indoor game on turf. Baltimore’s offense looks mostly fine with Lamar Jackson’s ability to create off scrambles, and the Ravens are eighth in EPA on designed rushes through two weeks. Dallas doesn’t look any better at stopping the run, as evidenced by how easily the Saints took advantage of the Cowboys’ run defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys’ offensive metrics have not been impressive at all through two weeks. However, they’ve been in extreme game states, with a huge lead in Week 1 and a huge deficit in Week 2, which is skewing the perception of this offense.
With Dallas ranked top seven in seconds per play and the Ravens offense moving the ball on the ground at will, this total should be closer to 50.
Verdict: Bet over 48.5 points (-110).
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
Atlanta’s offensive line capitalized on an excellent opportunity and pulled off an upset victory in Week 2, resulting in two vastly different performances for the Falcons offense. Will the real Falcons please stand up?
The Falcons’ inability to block the Steelers completely hindered their offense in Week 1, but they followed it up by dominating the Eagles’ defensive line in Week 2. Initially, the Falcons should have offensive rushing success with Bijan Robinson.
The Chiefs enter this game ranked 22nd in rushing defense DVOA and are in the bottom five leaguewide in EPA at defending designed runs through two weeks. The adjusted defensive line yards also place the Chiefs in the bottom eight. This all points to Atlanta being able to move the ball on the ground. However, unlike Philadelphia, the Chiefs have a formidable pass rush and can bring extra pressure while still covering in the secondary.
Kansas City lost Isiah Pacheco to an injury and signed Kareem Hunt. This is a significant loss for the Chiefs offense, which had become multifaceted thanks to Pacheco in recent seasons. Atlanta’s defensive line has struggled to generate pass rush or stop the run in the first two weeks, making it unlikely that the Chiefs will have trouble moving the ball and winning the game, even on the road.
I’ll be targeting Robinson with overs in both the rushing and receiving games as Steve Spagnuolo sets up another test for Kirk Cousins. Unless the Chiefs are bet down to -3, I will not be betting on them against the spread.
Verdict: Pass.
Monday Night Football
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
This is the perfect opportunity to support the Jaguars immediately after many have abandoned them following a rough 0-2 start. The Jaguars were just one fumble by Travis Etienne Jr. against the Dolphins and an illegal shift penalty against the Browns away from potentially being 2-0. Despite losing to Cleveland at home in Week 2, Jacksonville outperformed the Browns in total yards, average yards per play, and red zone trips.
Jacksonville continues to have one of the best success rates on early downs in the league. Buffalo may be receiving a lot of attention in the media and in the market after its impressive win against Miami, but it still heavily relies on running on early downs and may struggle to generate big plays against strong defenses.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars +4.5 (-105).
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
The Bengals came close to winning at Arrowhead against Kansas City, but a defensive pass interference penalty and a last-second field goal prevented them from doing so. As a result of their solid performance, the market is giving them a major upgrade. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has had relative success against Patrick Mahomes, but there are still major concerns about the Bengals defense, especially up front.
Cincinnati lost defensive tackles B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins to hamstring injuries during the game on Sunday, and their statuses remain unclear ahead of Monday night. The Bengals rank 22nd in rush success rate allowed through two weeks and allowed 4.7 yards per rush against the Chiefs. Washington’s offense has been surprisingly efficient in the NFL over the past two weeks.
Only the Saints and Cardinals have a higher EPA per drive thus far than Washington, and the Commanders also rank third in series success rate, a metric that measures how often a team converts a first-and-10 into another set of downs. The Commanders can shorten the game by using ball control, short passes, and effective runs to make it more difficult for the Bengals to separate from them with their own offense.
While Washington is 31st in EPA per play defensively, if Cincinnati’s possessions are limited, Washington will stay within one possession in this game. Favorites have struggled to cover large spreads due to red zone inefficiency, and the Bengals’ lack of rushing success will hurt their red zone efforts.
Verdict: Bet Commanders +7.5 (-105).
Bets from this article made for Week 3:
Chargers-Steelers under 35.5 (-110)
Packers-Titans under 36.5 (-110)
Ravens-Cowboys over 48.5 (-110)
Texans team total under 23.5 vs. Vikings (+100)
Colts moneyline vs. Bears (-118)
Jaguars +5.5 vs. Bills (-110)
Commanders +7.5 vs. Bengals (-105)
