The Winners and Losers of NFL Week 3
This week was defined by surprising quarterback play, from Andy Dalton’s offensive explosion in Carolina, to Justin Fields making the Steelers offense fun again, to C.J. Stroud falling apart against Minnesota, to Malik Willis winning a revenge game. These are the winners and losers from the Sunday slate.
Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winners: Justin Fields and a Watchable Steelers Offense
It’s been more than five seasons since the Pittsburgh Steelers fielded a passing game that could be called “productive” by even the most generous standards. Per TruMedia, the 2018 season was the last time Pittsburgh finished with a positive expected points added average on pass plays—that’s back when Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster were still at the tops of their respective games. Pittsburgh has been an offensive wasteland since then. Only the Jets, Panthers, Commanders, and Giants have been worse by total EPA over the previous five seasons.
But this is a new season, and the Steelers have a new quarterback: Justin Fields, who, surprisingly, has made the Pittsburgh passing game watchable for the first time in years. Fields didn’t light up the Chargers’ secondary in Sunday’s 20-10 win, but he put on a professional display of quarterbacking we didn’t see very often during his time in Chicago. He completed 25 of 32 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He scrambled only once, and he took only two sacks and lost just 13 yards on those plays. He committed his first turnover of the season—an unfortunate interception off a batted pass—but kept the ball out of harm’s way. It was the perfect performance for a quarterback trying to impress Mike Tomlin, who has spent the past few seasons coaching around the mistakes of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitchell Trubisky. Fields more than pulled his weight in this win, and with the Steelers at 3-0 and in first place in the AFC North, it’s hard to see how Tomlin could possibly send Fields to the bench once Russell Wilson recovers from the lingering calf injury that has sidelined him since just before Week 1.
In stacking impressive performances for Pittsburgh, Fields appears to have improved as a passer in some vital areas. Per TruMedia, he’s on pace to set career lows in sack rate, interception rate, time to throw, and off-target throw rate. In other words, he’s getting rid of the ball on time more regularly than he ever did in Chicago, and the ball is getting to its intended target more consistently. Fields hardly resembles the quarterback who failed with the Bears. That guy wasn’t making anticipatory throws into tight windows over the middle of the field like this:
While Fields’s passes have been more efficient in Pittsburgh, his scrambles haven’t been nearly as explosive as they were in Chicago. He’s averaging just 6.2 yards and 0.07 EPA per scramble this season; he averaged 9.2 yards and 0.69 EPA per scramble during his time with the Bears. That could be because Fields is being more patient and turning down run lanes more often. Or maybe his breakout scrambling performance is imminent—and that would add a much-needed dimension to the offense. The Steelers’ run game has been the weak link for the offense over the first three weeks. It’s typically the other way around in Pittsburgh, and with run-game guru Arthur Smith designing this scheme, there is reason to believe the coaching staff can find some balance eventually. The Steelers appear to have found a star in rookie center Zach Frazier, giving Smith another foundational piece, along with Fields, for a productive run game. Improvement should be coming.
And if the run game does indeed pick up, Pittsburgh’s ceiling could be even higher than what it’s already shown. That’s reason enough for Tomlin to keep Wilson on the bench and name Fields the starter for the rest of the season. Fields is younger, he’s a better athlete, he’s got a stronger arm, and with the strides he’s made as a passer, it’s difficult to find areas where Wilson owns a clear advantage. It always felt to me like Fields would be the Steelers’ best option. If Tomlin didn’t see that initially, he must by now.
Loser: Bobby Slowik, Who Failed the Flores Test
If there’s a downside to calling plays for a brilliant young quarterback like C.J. Stroud, it’s knowing that you’ll be blamed whenever anything goes wrong. A lot went wrong for the Texans offense in Sunday’s 34-7 loss to the Vikings, and second-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will undoubtedly catch heat for the crappy performance—especially for allowing Stroud to fall into Brian Flores’s defensive blender.
Stroud is already one of the NFL’s best (and sharpest) quarterbacks, so it’s easy sometimes to forget how inexperienced he is. It’s unfair to expect him to take on one of the NFL’s most wicked defensive play callers on the road without significant help from his coaches. Slowik’s job is to make things easier for his quarterback, and he didn’t do that on Sunday.
Flores used his typical tricks, crowding the line of scrimmage with potential pass rushers and overwhelming Houston’s pass protection. Stroud and Slowik never found an answer. The Vikings blitzed Stroud 14 times on Sunday. He averaged minus-0.31 EPA per play and just 5.0 yards per dropback. The Texans finally threw in the towel on Stroud’s behalf and pulled him with just under five minutes remaining, when the Texans were trailing by 27 points. Flores’s defense could no longer harass him as he sat on the sideline, but it was a long day for the second-year pro.
The key to avoiding Flores’s nasty blitz package is to win on first and second down. Offenses have to avoid obvious passing situations at all costs if they want to stand a chance at passing the Flores test. And Slowik has had play-calling issues on those early downs throughout his time as Houston’s offensive coordinator. Last season, he was criticized for leaning too heavily on Houston’s inefficient run game on first down. Slowik has responded by calling more passes on early downs in 2024, but the results haven’t been pretty. The running game remains ineffective, and Stroud is near the bottom of the league in some key passing metrics on early downs. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson have been worse on first and second down by EPA, per TruMedia. Stroud’s brilliance on third down had covered up that issue in wins against Indianapolis and Chicago this season. But he couldn’t cover it up with Flores on the other sideline, and that’s not unexpected for a young quarterback; this is simply what Flores does better than just about any other defensive coordinator. But with Slowik again failing to unlock Houston’s run game or produce downfield shots off play-action in the passing game on first and second down, Houston’s offense never really stood a chance.
Slowik will get more of these tests with matchups against other top defenses, like those in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Buffalo. The Texans may be able to pad their stats against crappy AFC South defenses, but until we see them put it on a top unit with a savvy defensive play caller, it will be difficult to trust this young team to make a playoff run. The Texans have the quarterback and the surrounding talent to make a run to the Super Bowl. It’s unclear whether they have the offensive coordinator.
Loser: The Watchability of the Chiefs Offense
Nobody in Kansas City is pounding the panic button after the Chiefs narrowly escaped Atlanta with a 22-17 win. Still, we might need to talk about the state of Kansas City’s passing game, which put together another punchless performance in front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes needed 39 attempts to reach 217 passing yards against a bad Falcons defense. His average depth of throw was just 5.3 yards on the night, and that somehow raised his season-long average to 5.2 yards, per TruMedia. Only Baker Mayfield and Jayden Daniels are throwing shorter passes on average.
Mahomes’s aDOT has decreased nearly every season since 2018, when he first took over as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes’s Average Depth of Target, by Season
His aDOT has hit a new low in 2024, but this isn’t a new issue. We’ve been lamenting Mahomes’s inability to push the ball downfield like he did in the good old days—yes, 2019 counts as the good old days in this scenario—when Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins were catching go balls and deep crossers every week. Now the Chiefs’ passing game is built on drag routes and quick in-breakers short of the first-down markers.
The increase in two-high coverages has been credited with destroying Kansas City’s deep passing game, but this isn’t the only offense seeing a lot of two-high defenses. Other teams have figured out ways to push the ball downfield even when the defense is sitting on those plays. Josh Allen and the Bills, for instance, have had no real issues there. Besides, we’ve also seen a decline in Mahomes’s aggressiveness against single-high coverages. His aDOT against single-high coverages has dropped to 6.1 yards in 2024. That number was at 9.0 yards in 2019 and has declined pretty much every season since then.
Patrick Mahomes’s aDOT Is Declining Against All Coverages
That’s not the only concerning number for this Kansas City offense. Travis Kelce, who struggled through much of the 2023 season before turning it on in the playoffs, is off to a career-worst start. He’s caught only eight total passes and has yet to cross the 100-yard mark on the season. He’s averaging just 0.78 yards per route run, which ranks 46th among qualified tight ends. Even if we see a repeat of last season, such that Kelce comes on down the stretch and plays his best in the postseason, the Chiefs will have to make it through the regular season with a receiving corps featuring Rashee Rice and not much else. First-round pick Xavier Worthy looks more like a gadget guy early on in his rookie season. Marquise Brown, the team’s big offseason acquisition at receiver, is expected to miss the entire regular season after undergoing shoulder surgery and landing on IR last week. Barring a midseason pickup, this receiving corps looks no better than the one that held the offense back for most of the 2023 season, which means we might be in for a long season of Chiefs discourse.
Loser: Bryce Young’s Trade Value
Dating back to last season, the Panthers scored 13 total points over Young’s last four starts. On Sunday, it took Andy Dalton, who replaced the 2023 no. 1 pick in the starting lineup this week, all of three drives to beat that number. And the scoring didn’t stop there. Dalton led the Panthers to 36 points against a decent Raiders defense and delivered the team’s first win since Week 15 of last season. More significantly, Dalton provided the latest evidence that Young was the problem for Carolina’s offense, and there is little hope for him to turn things around with this particular team.
Dalton finished Sunday’s game with 319 passing yards and three touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception, and he lost only 13 yards on two sacks. Receiver Diontae Johnson, whom the team traded for in the offseason to theoretically make Young’s job easier, broke out with an eight-catch, 122-yard performance. First-round receiver Xavier Legette chipped in with a big 35-yard reception. Running back Chuba Hubbard ran for 114 yards. It felt like the first time we got to see the full potential of this offense—which is exactly why rookie head coach Dave Canales had to bench Young. Dalton gives the Panthers a shot at a fair evaluation of both their roster and coaching staff.
Earlier on Sunday, it was reported that teams had inquired about Young’s availability in a trade. Canales has remained adamant that Young is his quarterback (despite reports to the contrary), but a split is probably best for both parties at this point. It’s just not likely that Carolina would get much in return for the struggling first-round pick.
This isn’t the first time Dalton has put up big numbers in what was supposed to be a terrible offense that didn’t give its quarterback a chance to succeed. He threw for 361 yards in a Week 3 game against the Seahawks last season when Young was injured. Dalton hasn’t played nearly as much football as Young over the past year, but the comparison of their numbers in the same offense could be the biggest red flag for Young’s long-term prospects.
Bryce Young Vs. Andy Dalton, Since 2023
Maybe teams calling about a trade for Young should ask about Dalton instead.
Winner: Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson–Derrick Henry Backfield
Roll the footage!
That’s the highlight Ravens fans have been waiting for since Henry decided last spring that he’d be joining Jackson in Baltimore’s backfield. Against a pitiful Cowboys run defense, Henry racked up 151 rushing yards on 25 carries and scored two touchdowns in a 28-25 win in Dallas. Jackson also had his way with the Cowboys defense, carrying the ball 14 times for 87 yards, including this game-sealing run:
In all, the Ravens rushed for 274 yards, which made things easier on Jackson when he dropped back to pass. That was a significant change from the first two weeks of the season, when Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken had been criticized for not putting the ball in Henry’s hands enough. Those critiques were a bit unfair, as Monken called plenty of run-pass options, and in reading the opposing defenses, Jackson chose to pass the ball instead of handing it off to Henry. Against Dallas, Monken swapped out the RPOs for read-option plays, which gave Jackson the ability to keep the ball in his own hands and run. Coming into this game, the Ravens had attempted just nine read-option plays, per Sports Info Solutions. We’ll have to wait a few days to get the updated read-option numbers after the Cowboys game, but based on my live viewing, Baltimore may have doubled that number on Sunday.
But Jackson’s heavier involvement in the run game is not the story here. That’s Henry, who showed that at age 30, he still has plenty left in the tank and can take over a game. That’s certainly what happened against Dallas. Henry wasn’t just taking advantage of open rush lanes against a bad run defense. He was creating those lanes himself. The running back broke 12 tackles and created an extra 45 yards according to Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expected metric.
There is still plenty to be concerned about with this Ravens offense. The right side of the offensive line is a major issue in pass protection. The receiving corps isn’t creating a lot of separation downfield. And this offense still has no answers against the blitz. How Baltimore navigates those problems will ultimately dictate the ceiling on this team, but with Jackson and Henry finally powering the run game, the floor for the offense might be the highest in the league.
Loser: Derek Carr’s MVP Campaign Manager
Coming into Week 3, New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr had attempted 39 passes on the season. Maybe we should have waited to see more from him before deciding he was new and improved, somehow immune to pressure, and more willing to push the ball downfield and pushing him to the front of the early MVP race. That campaign hit a speed bump in the form of a 15-12 loss to an Eagles team whose defense hadn’t been playing its best ball coming into the game. The old, familiar version of Carr—the one who is overly sensitive to pressure and all too willing to throw short of the sticks—showed up. And so did the Eagles’ pass rush, led by Jalen Carter, who lived in the Saints backfield all afternoon.
Through the first two weeks, Carr was averaging a ridiculous (and unsustainable) 18.1 yards per dropback when pressured, per TruMedia. Against the Eagles on Sunday, he averaged minus-0.5 yards on pressured dropbacks, and his season average dropped to a more reasonable 7.6 yards. The game fittingly ended with Carr making a panicked throw off his back foot as pressure bore down on him. The ball fluttered through the air and into the arms of Eagles defensive back Reed Blankenship for a game-sealing interception.
It felt very familiar. But don’t just ask me. Take it from Eagles defensive back (and former Saint) C.J. Gardner-Johnson:
While I would be frantically trying to off-load any Carr MVP stock I bought over the past two weeks, I am not down on the Saints as a whole. First-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was outcoached by Vic Fangio on Sunday, but the foundation of Kubiak’s scheme, built around an Alvin Kamara–led run game, is sound, and Dennis Allen’s defense ranks near the top of the league according to most of the major defensive efficiency metrics. Even after Sunday’s setback, the Saints still lead the NFL in offensive EPA per play and are tied for second in defensive EPA per play. They also own the league’s best point differential. Even if this loss poked holes in Carr’s MVP case, New Orleans still looks like the favorite to win the NFC South after Tampa Bay’s poor showing against the Broncos.
Winner: Green Bay’s Quarterback Factory
The Packers may have done it again. In a league where some franchises spend years trying to find one productive quarterback, Green Bay seems to find one anywhere it looks. The latest is Malik Willis, who led the Packers to a decisive 30-14 win against the Titans to move to 2-0 as a starter while filling in for the injured Jordan Love. Willis led Green Bay with 73 yards on the ground in his return to Tennessee, and the offense led a run-heavy script for a second consecutive week. It was a dominant performance on the ground for Willis, but it doubled as the most impressive passing performance of his career to date—and he did it against the team that drafted him in the third round in 2022 and traded him to the Packers for peanuts last month. Packers coach Matt LaFleur didn’t ask too much of Willis in the passing game—it was a steady diet of designed short passes and deep shots that don’t require much thought—but Willis flashed his arm strength with a couple of passes over the middle of the field, including this strike to move the chains on third down.
Willis completed 13 of 19 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. He hasn’t yet attempted enough passes to qualify for the league’s statistical leaderboards, but if he qualified, Willis would rank second in yards per dropback and EPA per dropback. He’d be third in ESPN’s total quarterback rating. We’re talking about a quarterback who had never thrown for 100 yards in an NFL game before last week. He’s been in this offense for only a few weeks total. As LaFleur said after the game, what we’re seeing out of Willis is truly shocking.
“I just cannot articulate the job that he’s done in this short period of time,” LaFleur said, via ESPN. “People can’t fathom it. I promise you, you guys don’t get it. I know you think you got it, but you don’t get it. What he’s been able to do, I’ve never seen something like this.”
LaFleur, once again, also deserves some credit. Though Willis looks like a totally different player for the Packers compared to his time with the Titans, it’s clear he has limitations as a passer. And the Packers staff, including offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, has done an excellent job of working around those weaknesses and leaning into his strengths. The Packers are spamming quarterback runs and drawing up simple throws that make good use of Willis’s ability to throw on the move. These aren’t complex plans Green Bay is throwing at its opponents—and it’s only a matter of time before defenses start to catch up—but they have served their purpose: Willis hasn’t been put in a position to make silly mistakes, and he hasn’t gone out of his way to make any. (Unlike Will Levis, the guy he used to back up in Tennessee.) More importantly, the Packers are 2-0 without their starting quarterback and just one game back from the division-leading Vikings.
The Ringer’s 2024 NFL Rankings
Your hub for The Ringer’s NFL rankings has arrived. Here we’ll feature our Power Rankings, Trade Value Rankings, and, of course, QB Rankings. Check back every week during the season as we put the league in order.
Loser: Kyle Shanahan in the Fourth Quarter
As the 49ers held a 10-point lead midway through the fourth quarter of a game against the Rams in which they had to play without a trio of star skill-position players, it looked like Shanahan was headed for a week of praise for his latest display of schematic wizardry. Without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, Shanahan managed to craft a game plan that allowed Brock Purdy to throw for 292 yards and three touchdowns and WR3 Jauan Jennings to catch 11 passes for 175 yards and three scores. Shanahan appeared poised to notch another win over his closest rival, Sean McVay. It was shaping up to be a good day for Shanahan.
And then it all fell apart. Now Shanahan will spend the coming days answering questions about another blown lead in the fourth quarter. The Rams, who have also been dealing with injury issues and played this game without their top two receivers, scored 13 consecutive points to steal a 27-24 win and dropped the 49ers to 1-2. Ultimately, it won’t matter that Shanahan was without three of his stars. It won’t matter that there weren’t any obvious coaching mistakes that led to this blown lead. Or that his highly drafted kicker, Jake Moody, missed a field goal that could have put the game away. Or that receiver Ronnie Bell dropped a deep pass from Purdy that would have given Moody another shot at a go-ahead field goal late in the game—a drop that made Shanahan throw his arms up in disgust.
This loss will be pinned on Shanahan, and maybe it should be. According to the Associated Press, it’s the fifth time Shanahan’s 49ers have blown a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Only John Harbaugh’s Ravens have blown more of those leads since 2017. Five games shouldn’t overshadow all of the other fantastic work Shanahan has done overseeing this Niners team, but when two of those losses are Super Bowls, you’re going to catch shit about it.
These losses are tough to stomach, but ultimately there’s nothing to glean from these blown leads. There’s no consistent pattern to them. Shanahan has been criticized for not running the ball enough in those spots. And he’s been criticized for being too conservative. He’s seen different 49ers quarterbacks melt under pressure. If you coach as many high-profile games in this league as Shanahan has, you’re going to take some ugly L’s. His losses have just been poorly timed, and, as was the case on Sunday, particularly deflating.
