The 2024 MLB regular season is nearly complete, with just a delicious doubleheader—full of playoff implications and the potential for scandal—between Atlanta and the Mets still to come on Monday. But there’s no time to wait for that resolution before commencing actual postseason analysis, because the playoffs themselves start on Tuesday!
So before the wild-card round begins, let’s examine the playoff contestants (and remaining possible contestants) to determine why each one might, and might not, win the 2024 World Series. This is a wide-open field, after a regular season in which no team won 100 games. The last time MLB brought this level of parity was 2014, when a lack of 100-win teams produced a thrilling postseason, which started with the greatest wild-card game ever and ended with the World Series–tying run stranded on third base.
May baseball fans be blessed with similar drama a decade later. As we dive into our analysis, teams are ordered by FanGraphs championship probability. All WAR figures come from FanGraphs.
Philadelphia Phillies (95-67, NL’s No. 2 Seed, 17 Percent World Series Odds)
Why they’ll win: The Phillies have MLB’s most complete team. All four of their projected playoff starters—Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez—were worth at least 3 wins above replacement this season, which no other team can boast. The Phillies are also perfectly suited for October baseball, with a bullpen full of flamethrowers and a lineup full of sluggers. They run well, they field well (aside from Nick Castellanos, at least, and he has another playoff gear), and they rock the right vibes.
There’s a reason FanGraphs gives the Phillies the best odds of lifting the Commissioner’s Trophy next month. If I had to reset my preseason predictions now (I picked a healthy Atlanta before the year), the Phillies would be my choice to win it all, too.
Why they won’t: The Phillies did all of their heavy lifting in the spring and early summer, but since the All-Star break, they’re just 33-33. Three of the team’s infielders have slumped over that span (Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Trea Turner—maybe the latter needs another standing ovation), and the pitching staff has allowed way too many homers. Momentum is mostly a myth, and it’s not as if the Phillies had anyone pushing them during their monthslong swoon, but they must hope they didn’t peak too early, after reaching their stride at just the right time in 2022 and 2023.
New York Yankees (94-68, AL’s No. 1 Seed, 16 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Baseball isn’t typically like other sports, in which a dominant pick-and-roll duo or quarterback–wide receiver pairing can power a team to victory. Two stars aren’t enough to win on the diamond (see: Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout in Anaheim). But Aaron Judge and Juan Soto will put that maxim to the test this October, after Judge led the majors with a 218 wRC+ (among qualified AL/NL players since 1901, only Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams have done better) and Soto ranked third with a 180 wRC+.
The Yankees’ star pitcher is peaking at the right time, as well. Gerrit Cole has rounded into form after a slow, injury-delayed start to the season. The reigning Cy Young winner has a 2.25 ERA (with a 2.62 FIP) in his last 10 starts; take out one blowup against the Red Sox, and he has a 1.29 ERA in the other nine appearances.
Why they won’t: The Yankees really, really need Judge and Soto to produce at historic levels, because the rest of the lineup doesn’t appear up to the task of winning a title. The Yankees are the majors’ worst baserunning team, so they can’t manufacture runs via small-ball tactics, and the lineup is marred by two giant holes: at first base (where Anthony Rizzo was struggling even before fracturing two fingers) and left field (where Alex Verdugo can’t hit and Jasson Domínguez can’t field).
And while Cole looks ready to start Game 1 of the ALDS, the rest of the pitching staff looks less reliable, especially after Nestor Cortes Jr.’s elbow scare. The bullpen—almost always a strength for New York—is in particular flux after the struggles and ensuing demotion of closer Clay Holmes.
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, NL’s No. 1 Seed, 16 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: The Dodgers offense is on fire. Ohtani stole the show with his historic 54-homer, 59-steal season, but he’s not alone: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernández all ranked among the top 22 qualified hitters in wRC+, and Max Muncy would rate just as highly if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The Dodgers led the majors in run differential and team wRC+, and only the Diamondbacks—who play in a more hitter-friendly home park—scored more total runs. Led by Ohtani in his first playoff appearance (finally!), L.A. might just slug its way to the World Series.
Why they won’t: Here’s a list of injured Dodgers starters: Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, and River Ryan.
Here’s a list of currently healthy Dodgers starters: midseason acquisition Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who hasn’t lasted more than five innings or 79 pitches in four starts since returning from his own injury), Walker Buehler (who had an ugly 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP after returning from Tommy John surgery), Bobby Miller (who’s down in Triple-A due to an 8.52 ERA), and 27-year-old rookie Landon Knack.
There’s almost no way the Dodgers’ playoff rotation will perform as poorly as it did last postseason, when Kershaw, Miller, and Lance Lynn combined to allow 13 runs in 4 2/3 innings (that’s a 25.07 ERA) en route to being swept by Arizona in the NLDS. But there isn’t much reason to expect the Dodgers to outpitch the Phillies, Padres, or other NL rivals, either.
Houston Astros (88-73, AL’s No. 3 Seed, 11 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: They’re the Astros, with seven consecutive trips to the ALCS. Don’t let the mediocre record fool you: Since a terrible 12-24 start, Houston is an MLB-best 76-49 (that’s a 98-win pace over a full season). The familiar lineup tentpoles are still here, and Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman are all mashing. Meanwhile, the rotation has excelled even without helpful contributions from 41-year-old Justin Verlander. Led by Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, the Astros led the majors in starting pitcher WAR after the All-Star break.
Why they won’t: The lineup isn’t nearly as long as the Astros are accustomed to in October, as catcher Yainer Diaz offers the only reliable above-average bat beyond the core four. The Astros also rank 29th in baserunning value, ahead of only the Yankees. Meanwhile, a bullpen that projected for three shutdown relievers this season might not have any: Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu combined for a 2.23 ERA last season but all have ERAs of 3.10 or higher in 2024.
San Diego Padres (93-69, NL’s No. 4 Seed, 8 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: In 2022, the Padres reached the NLCS with a rotation headlined by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove—but now their rotation is so deep that those two veterans are the no. 3 and 4 starters, respectively. Dylan Cease and Michael King were both tremendous in their first seasons in San Diego, combining for 8.7 WAR. And that fearsome foursome is backed by a deep and effective bullpen, which looked strong even before Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing arrived as deadline reinforcements. That trio combined for a 1.76 ERA in San Diego, while pen-mates Robert Suarez, Adrián Morejón, and Jeremiah Estrada all checked in with sub-3.00 ERAs as well.
The Padres offense isn’t quite as dominant because of Ha-Seong Kim’s season-ending shoulder injury and Xander Bogaerts’s down year. But they’re still capable of matching almost any opponent run for run, thanks in large part to their outfield trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, and Rookie of the Year contender Jackson Merrill. Only the Yankees, with Judge and Soto, have a higher wRC+ from outfielders than the Padres do.
Why they won’t: The Padres boasted a teamwide 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers—the third-best mark in the majors, behind only the Yankees and Dodgers. But they finished with a below-average 96 wRC+ against lefties; among playoff clubs, only the Tigers and Royals fared worse.
Regular starters Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Arráez are all lefty batters who hit much worse against same-handed hurlers; righties Bogaerts and Tatis posted reverse splits this season; and the Padres don’t have many better options for platoon purposes. Reading too much into splits and subsamples is a dangerous game, but the Padres might be forced to confront this problem right away, if they face any of Chris Sale, Max Fried, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, or Eduardo Rodríguez in the wild-card round.
Cleveland Guardians (92-69, AL’s No. 2 Seed, 7 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Opposing teams had better take a lead over the Guardians in the first few innings of any given game, or else they’re not going to win. Cleveland’s bullpen shortens games so effectively because of its quality and quantity of top relievers: The Guardians are the first team in MLB history with four relievers—Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin—who each finished with a sub-2.00 ERA in at least 60 innings. And as an entire relief corps, Cleveland posted the best win probability added for any bullpen in the last half century, which is as far back as FanGraphs’ WPA calculations go.
Why they won’t: Opposing teams might well take leads over the Guardians early in games, because Cleveland’s starting rotation is as weak a unit as exists in the playoff field. Cleveland ranked 27th in starter WAR this season—ahead of only the last-place Angels, Rockies, and Marlins—and Tanner Bibee is the team’s only trustworthy option.
More broadly, Cleveland played beyond its means all season long, and it’s unlikely that run of good fortune will continue for another high-pressure month. The Guardians’ BaseRuns record—which estimates a team’s expected record based on the result of every plate appearance—was just 81-80. Cleveland outperformed that expectation by 11 games, while no other playoff team was more than three wins ahead of its BaseRuns record.
Atlanta Braves (88-72, NL’s No. 5/7 Seed, 7 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Despite a plethora of ruinous injuries—more on that in a moment—Atlanta has remained in potential playoff position due to a stellar rotation. Chris Sale is on the verge of his long-awaited first Cy Young award, Max Fried turned in a terrific contract year, and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach and converted reliever Reynaldo López both excelled in fewer innings. Toss in a tremendous bullpen, and Atlanta led the majors in pitching WAR.
Why they won’t: Atlanta’s top three projected players this season were, in order, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley. All three are done for the year. Their next five best-projected players included Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy, who have all suffered from injury, underperformance, or both.
But a lackluster offense—a rotten follow-up to a historically great season at the plate—isn’t the main reason Atlanta might struggle to advance in October. The club’s greatest problem is logistical, as it must navigate a home doubleheader on Monday and then win a best-of-three series in San Diego just to reach the NLDS. Atlanta still has a shot—especially if it can win the first game against the Mets on Monday, thereby saving Sale for the wild-card round—but that’s a tall task for a team already missing so many key players.
Baltimore Orioles (91-71, AL’s No. 4 Seed, 5 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Nine Orioles batted at least 300 times this season, and all nine had an above-average batting line. There are no easy outs in this lineup—not at the top, where Gunnar Henderson might have won MVP in a less crowded field; nor in the middle, where Anthony Santander clubbed 44 homers; nor at the bottom, where the likes of Cedric Mullins and Ramón Urías offer strong platoon options. Adley Rutschman’s terrible slump (64 wRC+ since the start of July) hurts, but the overall Baltimore lineup remains a potent force, with an enviable balance of handedness, power and speed, and youth and veteran know-how.
Why they won’t: Like the Dodgers, the Orioles have more high-caliber starting pitchers on the injured list than in the current rotation. This group has a whole lot of question marks after Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, and it’s not as if the bullpen provides much more certainty; saves leader Craig Kimbrel was designated for assignment earlier this month, and replacement closer Seranthony Domínguez has allowed six homers in 22 2/3 innings with his new club. The Orioles might need to win a couple playoff games by football scores if they want to stay alive until late October.
Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73, NL’s No. 6/7 Seed, 3 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Do you like offense? Because the Diamondbacks score in bunches. They led the majors in runs and second-half wRC+, as Corbin Carroll returned to form, Eugenio Suárez exploded, and Ketel Marte produced at a prolific clip when healthy. Like the Orioles, the top nine Diamondbacks in plate appearances were all above-average hitters over the full season; unlike the Orioles, the Diamondbacks also ranked among the majors’ best fielding teams, too, emphasizing the all-around excellence of Arizona’s lineup.
Why they won’t: You can’t win in the playoffs without first reaching the playoffs, and Arizona is in a tenuous spot. If Atlanta and New York split their doubleheader on Monday—which seems likely, given that whichever team wins the first game would want to rest all its top players in the second game—then both those teams would qualify ahead of Arizona, due to tiebreakers, and the Diamondbacks would miss out on an opportunity to defend their National League pennant.
Such would be a brutal outcome for Arizona, which made an effort to improve over the winter and ended up with a much better team in 2024 (89 wins and a plus-98 run differential) than in 2023 (84 wins and a minus-15 scoring margin). But FanGraphs odds suggest Arizona has only a roughly 50-50 chance to reach the wild-card round at this point, and the odds don’t even factor in the psychological factors that should encourage a doubleheader split.
Kansas City Royals (86-76, AL’s No. 5 Seed, 3 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Especially in the shorter early playoff rounds, the Royals will be able to flex an excellent top of the rotation; Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo ranked second and third, respectively, among AL pitchers in WAR, and they might be enough to win a round or two by themselves. And on the position player side, 24-year-old Bobby Witt Jr. appears primed for a breakout postseason after a 10.4-WAR regular season—the fifth-best for a shortstop in MLB history. Witt leads a defense that Statcast ranks as baseball’s best.
Why they won’t: Unfortunately for Kansas City, a team can’t win solely by preventing runs; it has to score some, too, and that’s where the Royals run into trouble. Witt, the slumping Salvador Perez, and the injured Vinnie Pasquantino are the only Royals with better than a 102 wRC+ in any number of plate appearances this season. Kansas City is neck and neck with the Tigers for worst playoff team across a host of offensive categories. Oh, and the Royals were 12-1 against the historically terrible White Sox—and a mere 74-75 against every other team.
Milwaukee Brewers (93-69, NL’s No. 3 Seed, 3 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: Milwaukee excels on the margins, adding value in all the little areas that aren’t immediately obvious when analyzing a lineup or rotation. The Brewers rated as an elite defensive team, especially in the outfield. They thrived in high-leverage relief situations, placing second behind the Guardians in bullpen WPA. And they led the majors in baserunning value and ranked second in stolen bases, with a much better success rate than the Nationals, who led in raw steals. Those seemingly hidden advantages could be the difference in a league without any overwhelming superteams.
Why they won’t: The Brewers’ best hitter, Christian Yelich, was enjoying a resurgent season—until he hurt his back, which will keep him on the bench for the duration of the playoffs. With Yelich out, Milwaukee’s lineup looks more fine than great; William Contreras, Willy Adames, and rookie sensation Jackson Chourio can all rake, but there are too many average to below-average hitters behind them.
Like Cleveland, moreover, Milwaukee’s excellent bullpen comes at the cost of a subpar rotation. Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers were the only Brewers pitchers worth more than 1 WAR this year. (Midseason pickup Frankie Montas accumulated a combined 1.4 WAR with two teams, but that’s due to volume, not quality, of innings: He had a below-average ERA and FIP.)
Detroit Tigers (86-76, AL’s No. 6 Seed, 3 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: They might be a team of destiny. The Tigers were sellers at the trade deadline and bottomed out at 55-63 on August 10—only to storm to a 31-13 record the rest of the way, with the underlying performance to match. And if Detroit is truly a team out of the prophecies and storybooks, then Tarik Skubal is the azor ahai to lead them. The Tigers southpaw will claim the Cy Young trophy later this fall after winning the majors’ first pitching Triple Crown since 2011. (Sale will almost certainly match that feat in the National League.)
Why they won’t: With the utmost respect for the Tigers’ Cinderella run, this roster just has a lot less talent than its opposing numbers in October. Detroit’s lineup is barren beyond Riley Greene and some platoon bats, which is why the Tigers scored fewer runs than any other playoff club. And after Skubal and Reese Olson, the pitching staff is a patchwork quilt of openers and bulk guys, anonymous relievers and reclamation arms. That plan has worked for the last two months, but it’s a dicey strategy for October.
New York Mets (88-72, NL’s No. 5/6/7 Seed, 2 Percent WS Odds)
Why they’ll win: The Mets are a well-rounded team with high-caliber batters (likely MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor), starters (shrewd free agent signee Sean Manaea), and relievers (a resurgent Edwin Díaz, with an MLB-best 46 percent strikeout rate in the second half). Few teams have played better baseball of late than the Mets, who boast a 26-13 record since mid-August. That’s not quite Tigers-level momentum, but it’s not far behind.
Why they won’t: The Mets are well-rounded, sure, but they don’t have a ton of obvious strengths. Their roster is a report card full of B-plus grades without any As—especially with Lindor hampered by a back injury that forced him to miss two weeks during the playoff race. The Mets still need to reach the playoffs, and even if they get there, they’ll enter October with the least-talented roster in the NL field. Stranger things have happened (see: Arizona’s run to the World Series just last year!), but a Mets championship in 2024 looks, for now, like the least likely outcome this postseason.
