Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the course of the season, you’ll get my takes on what happened the previous weekend, with an eye on what’s to come.
It’s hard to play offense better than the Lions did Monday night.
You know what I love about Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson? He has what we’ll label a “résumé call” on his play sheet every week. You can almost imagine the dialogue in his head when he calls that play. Hey there, NFL owners. You sure you don’t want to make me an offer I can’t refuse next offseason? Before you answer, watch this! Last week, it was a beautifully executed hook-and-ladder. On Monday night during a 42-29 win over the Seahawks, it was a red zone play in which Jared Goff flipped the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown and then leaked to the end zone for a 7-yard touchdown catch. It’s almost as if Johnson gets bored calling the same old running plays and passing concepts week after week. He just needs to spice it up and show off every once in a while.
Johnson famously turned down head-coaching opportunities last offseason and decided to return as the Lions’ offensive coordinator. Against a banged-up Seattle defense, he and Goff couldn’t miss. Goff finished the game 18-for-18 for 292 yards. The Lions scored six touchdowns on 10 possessions (not counting the kneel down at the end). Johnson schemed up play after play—run, pass, it didn’t matter. Everything was working.
After the Lions lost to the 49ers in the NFC championship last season, Dan Campbell told his players that might have been their only shot at a Super Bowl. But four games into the 2024 season, the Lions again look like top contenders. Their offense is not just picking up where it left off a year ago. It’s improving. Based on expected points added per drive and offensive success rate, the 2024 version of the Lions offense is actually outperforming the 2023 version. Numbers aside, the Jameson Williams factor can’t be overlooked. His ability to create a 70-yard touchdown out of thin air was not something the Lions had in their bag last season.
There’s a long way to go, and the defense has plenty of work to do. But maybe Campbell was wrong. Look around the NFC after four weeks, and it’s hard to find a more trustworthy team than the Lions.
The Washington Commanders are winning the NFC East.
I know what you’re thinking: Sheil, you’re a wily vet. You’ve seen September Kliff Kingsbury before. It’s been four games. Don’t overreact to small samples. A lot of people read this very fine website. You don’t want to get dunked on six weeks from now when this take looks ridiculous.
I appreciate the concern. Really, I do. And I’ve considered all of that. But I just can’t ignore what’s right in front of me, and that’s Jayden Daniels turning into a star. He is completing a league-best 82.1 percent of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt (which ranks fourth). And let’s remember that he is in far from a perfect situation. The Washington offensive line was considered terrible coming into the season. No one could argue that his group of pass catchers is above league average. But Daniels is the reason it’s all working. Defenses have simply not had answers for him.
The Commanders put together a nearly flawless offensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last Monday night and then went to Arizona and did pretty much the same thing again in Week 4 (a span of only six days!). They scored on seven of nine possessions en route to a 42-14 victory. This was the first time since Week 1 that the Commanders punted. If we look at the past three weeks and take away the kneel-down drives, they’ve scored on 20 of 22 possessions. This is not normal stuff!
How not normal is it? Glad you asked. Since 2000, based on EPA per drive, the only offense that has been better through the first four weeks of the season than the 2024 Commanders is the 2007 New England Patriots. (Yes, those historically good New England Patriots.) If we look at just this season, the Commanders rank first in EPA per drive by a wide margin. The difference between them and the no. 2 Bengals is roughly the same as the difference between the Bengals and the no. 20 Steelers.
I repeat: THIS IS NOT NORMAL STUFF!
I understand that the Commanders are unlikely to maintain this pace. Kingsbury’s teams tend to start off hot and fade late. Washington has a league-low one offensive turnover. And the Commanders defense looks like one of the worst in the NFL. We should expect regression, but to what degree?
I look around the division and I see Eagles and Cowboys teams that have been mediocre (at best) through four weeks, and the Giants are an afterthought. The Commanders offense appears to be the best singular unit in the NFC East. Maybe I’ll live to regret it, but for now, I choose to believe what my eyes are telling me: This quarterback and this team are legit.
The 2024 Eagles look a lot like the 2023 Eagles.
It’s becoming harder and harder to find Eagles fans who still have high hopes for this season. A playoff team? Maybe. But a Super Bowl contender? There aren’t many signs to indicate this team has that kind of ceiling. The Eagles are 2-2 going into their bye, and they’re expecting to get key offensive players such as A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson back from injury. Still, the prevailing feeling in Philadelphia is that this season probably won’t be a whole lot of fun. In many ways, even though the pieces are different, it feels like a continuation of last year.
Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie opted for an unconventional approach in the offseason. He decided to retain head coach Nick Sirianni but stripped him of his responsibilities and assigned him new coordinators—Kellen Moore on offense and Vic Fangio on defense. Sirianni has been tasked with being a CEO-type head coach—someone who oversees the entire operation, focuses on culture and preparation, and handles game management.
Well, the game management has been an issue, and the team that took the field against the Bucs on Sunday did not look ready to play. Tampa jumped out to a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter and never looked back. The slow starts on offense aren’t new. The Eagles are the only NFL team that has failed to score a single point in the first quarter this season. On four opening drives, the Eagles have totaled one first down and 17 yards.
Because of the injuries, the offense has some built-in excuses. The defense, though? Well, that’s a different story. It had all 11 starters healthy Sunday and couldn’t get a stop when it needed it. The Bucs opted for a quick passing attack (Baker Mayfield’s average time to throw was 2.24 seconds) to neutralize the Eagles’ pass rush, and Fangio was unable to find answers. On the season, this year’s Eagles defense is actually performing worse than last year’s defense in terms of EPA per drive. This is where I remind you that Matt Patricia was prominently involved in directing last year’s defense.
Of course, it’s not all coaching. General manager Howie Roseman drew rave reviews in the offseason for trading Haason Reddick to the Jets and replacing him with Bryce Huff in free agency. Through four games, Huff and Reddick (who continues to hold out from the Jets and has not played) have the same number of sacks, and Huff has just one more pressure. Internally, the Eagles are probably tired of hearing about last year. But if they return from the bye looking like the same team we’ve seen through four weeks, the connections will be impossible to shake.
Vance Joseph is saving Sean Payton right now.
Unless you are a real sicko (or a fan of one of the teams … or had money on the game … or had Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall in fantasy), you had no reason to pay attention to the Broncos-Jets game on Sunday. So let me offer a brief synopsis: It was slop. Pure, unfiltered slop. The final result was a 10-9 Broncos victory. Denver won even though Bo Nix threw for 60 total yards. How? Because Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is having an MWL (more with less) season. He doesn’t have the most talented group to work with—and earlier in the week, the team lost inside linebacker and defensive captain Alex Singleton due to a torn ACL—but he’s identifying the strengths and weaknesses of his players and putting them in positions to succeed. He is … wait for it … COACHING!
The Broncos had the third-best defensive performance of Week 4 in terms of EPA per drive. They held the Jets to 248 yards and sacked Aaron Rodgers five times. In the past two weeks, the Broncos defense has been on the field for 22 possessions (not counting end-of-half or end-of-game scenarios) and has allowed just one touchdown. On the season, it ranks top five in both EPA per drive and defensive success rate. Joseph has long preferred an aggressive style of defense, and he’s not backing off with this group. He is blitzing opponents at a league-high rate of 46.3 percent, and it’s working. On 25 dropbacks against the blitz Sunday, Rodgers averaged just 4.5 YPA and was sacked four times.
Payton put his reputation on the line by drafting Nix with the no. 12 pick last April, and it’s still way too early in the season to decide what type of quarterback Nix will be. But we can objectively say that the offense has been a mess so far. The Broncos rank 30th in both EPA per drive and success rate through four games. If this defense performed at just a mediocre level, the Broncos would be 1-3 or 0-4, and Payton would be fielding a whole lot of questions about the offensive struggles. But the defense has been lights out, and the Broncos have won two in a row, so those questions can wait (for now).
The Ringer’s 2024 NFL Rankings
Your hub for The Ringer’s NFL rankings has arrived. Here we’ll feature our Power Rankings, Trade Value Rankings, and, of course, QB Rankings. Check back every week during the season as we put the league in order.
It’s OK to have some concern about the Chiefs.
Before you yell at me, I get it. As long as the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, they have a great chance to win the Super Bowl. No one could reasonably argue otherwise. But it’s OK to admit that their margin of error seems as slim as ever this season. This isn’t as simple as “4-0 is 4-0.” Among the 22 teams that have started 4-0 the past 10 seasons, the Chiefs have the worst point differential (plus-20). Yes, they are good at winning close games. But also, there is a limit to how good you can actually be at winning close games.
The bigger deal here has to do with Mahomes’s supporting cast. Wide receiver Rashee Rice suffered a knee injury during Sunday’s win over the Chargers. Initial reports suggested that it could be a torn ACL, but there’s nothing definitive yet, except that Rice will miss next week’s game. I remember thinking after last season’s Super Bowl that it would never be that hard for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense again. But the way things currently stand, well, it might actually be harder this season. The team was already playing without running back Isiah Pacheco and wide receiver Hollywood Brown. The wide receiver group for the time being will look something like: Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore.
The Chiefs’ options? Maybe Worthy will emerge like Rice did last year. Maybe tight end Travis Kelce will be more prominently involved as a receiving option like he was in Week 4. Maybe Rice will return this season. Or maybe they’ll trade for someone. But it’s also possible that none of those things will happen, and we’ll point to the lack of help for Mahomes as a reason why they can’t bring home another Lombardi. Fair or not, the bar for the Chiefs is different than it is for every other team. And while there’s no reason to panic, they’ve got some things to figure out in the weeks ahead.
