Believe it or not, this is what a quiet season for Justin Jefferson looks like.

Through four weeks, the Vikings’ star wide receiver has averaged just 89.5 receiving yards per game—his lowest mark since his rookie season. He has just 20 receptions—an average of five per game average, well below the average (6.5) from his first four seasons. And yet, he’s also done this:

And this:

And this:

Let’s not mince words: Justin Jefferson is the greatest receiver in the NFL, and it’s not even close.

Earlier this season, Jefferson was asked about how defenses defended Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and whether he could learn anything from that. “Respectfully, I’m not Garrett Wilson,” Jefferson responded. 

Respectfully, Jefferson isn’t like any other wide receiver in the league. The other top wideouts—Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, et al—are not on his level. That’s a group of players who look likely to make it into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But Jefferson isn’t just on a Hall of Fame trajectory—he’s on an all-time great trajectory. Those other guys are chiseling their faces onto busts for Canton. Jefferson is chiseling his into the Mount Rushmore of wide receivers. It’s a subtle but significant distinction. 

No one disputes that Jerry Rice is history’s best receiver. He’s the NFL’s career receiving leader by more than 5,000 yards, despite playing in an era with less passing. He won three Super Bowls. He played for 20 seasons. Rice is the GOAT. After him, most would pick Randy Moss as the second-best receiver in history. After Moss? Third place gets tricky. Pick your legend: Larry Fitzgerald, Don Hutson, Terrell Owens, et al. Argue about it with your friends.

Jefferson is on his way to securing the no. 3 spot for himself. He could even supplant Moss, if his career goes as well as possible (I’ll refrain myself from saying he could supplant Rice, just because of Rice’s sheer longevity and #ringz). Not enough gets made of the absolutely mind-boggling yardage pace Jefferson has been on through just over four seasons of his career. He has more receiving yards than any player in history through 64 career games, with a pretty decent gap between him and no. 2 Julio Jones:

Jefferson is averaging 97.8 receiving yards per game for his career. The next highest mark is Calvin Johnson at 86.1 yards per game. While Jefferson hasn’t had time to grow old and potentially put up diminished numbers that deflate his career average, consider that even current young stars are nowhere close to him. Chase (82.0), Hill (80.9), and Lamb (78.0) are all more than 15 yards behind Jefferson. Consider, too, that Jefferson’s 2024 average of 89.5 yards per game is better than any player’s career average in history and yet has brought his own career average down. It can feel like we’re in the twilight zone when looking at these numbers.

To get a sense of what Jefferson’s career numbers look like against the best players in history, here’s a chart showing the cumulative receiving yards of some Hall of Famers, plus Jefferson:

Obviously Jefferson has a long way to go. The sheer length of Jerry Rice’s line on this chart is mind boggling—but at least through four-plus seasons, Jefferson is on-pace to smash all these guys.

Here is Jefferson compared to some stars who are retired or whose careers are likely nearing their end:

Jefferson didn’t match Odell Beckham Jr.’s early-career pace but has since eclipsed him, and it’s Jones who is clearly Jefferson’s closest competitor now. But we should consider two pieces of context. The first is that Jones played in a more pass-friendly environment than Jefferson. From 2011 to 2015 (Jones’s first five years in the league, covering his first 65 games), NFL teams averaged 235.4 passing yards per game; from 2020 to 2024, teams have been averaging 224.8 passing yards per game. That’s nearly a five percent drop—and yet Jefferson still has Jones beat. And the second piece of context is that Jones came into the league at age 22, but Jefferson did at age 21. Combine that with Jones missing 15 games in his first five seasons because of injuries (compared to just seven missed games for Jefferson), and Jones was just over a month shy of his 27th birthday when he played his 64th career game; Jefferson turned 25 in June. So Jefferson is nearly two years younger than Jones was at the same point in their respective careers.

Think there are current stars—like Chase—who might be close to Jefferson when it comes to production in their first four seasons? Here’s how Jefferson compares in some of the current top wideouts:

Chase stands apart from the rest of his peers … but he’s still well short of Jefferson. Chase has played in 49 career games and compiled 4,017 yards—the seventh-most in history to start a career. Jefferson had 4,787 in his first 49 games, the highest mark in history by more than 200 yards. (And if you’re wondering why Adams isn’t in this group, it’s because he had a very slow start to his career in Green Bay; his 3,236 receiving yards through his first 64 games ranks 165th in NFL history. Think about that: Jefferson has more than three thousand more receiving yards than Adams did at the same time in their respective careers!)

And finally, just for fun, here’s how Malik Nabers, the latest LSU star to burst onto the NFL receiving scene, compares:

Through four games, Nabers has 386 yards, while Jefferson had 348 through the same point in his career. So it’s early—very, very, very early—but technically Nabers is out-pacing Jefferson. (Though it’s taken an obscene and unsustainable 52 targets to get Nabers to that total. The Giants star, who is unlikely to play in Week 5 because of a concussion he suffered last week, will need a jump in efficiency to keep up this pace).

You may think that Jefferson benefits from a friendly era for passing offenses, especially when compared to Rice, Moss, and some of the other Hall of Famers above. To some extent that is true, but even when adjusting for era, Jefferson comes out ahead. Take Rice, for instance. When he began his career in 1985, teams averaged 226.6 passing yards per game. In 2023, that number was 236.3 (not as big a difference as you thought, huh?). If we bump up Rice’s 1985 numbers by 4.3 percent to account for the difference—and do the same for 1986, 1987, etc—we can estimate that Rice would’ve had 5,750 receiving yards in a 2023-like passing environment. For Jefferson, his numbers actually come down somewhat (passing was inflated in 2020 and 2021 when compared to 2022 and 2023), but he’d still clock in with an adjusted 6,070 yards. 

Jefferson tops all those other Hall of Famers when adjusting their yards as well. So don’t make the mistake of thinking a passing boom is fueling Jefferson’s ridiculous yardage pace—he’s simply that good. 

And that slow start to 2024 referenced at the top of this piece? It may not be so slow. Jefferson is actually putting together his most efficient season ever. He’s averaging 3.17 yards per route run, which would be the best mark of his career. The reason his yardage is down is because the 4-0 Vikings have simply been too good and are throwing the ball far less than usual. Minnesota has recorded just 106 pass attempts this season, tied for fifth-lowest in the league. Last year, the Vikings had the fourth-most attempts. The year before that, they had the third-most. Jefferson’s raw volume stats could take a leap if the Vikings finally get into some negative game scripts and Sam Darnold starts throwing the ball around the yard.

You want advanced stats for Jefferson? Pro Football Focus has graded him in the top five at the position in every single season of his career. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception charted Jefferson’s routes from 2023 and found that defenses double-covered Jefferson on 15.8 percent of plays, the highest rate in the league. In 2022, that number was 21.1 percent, again the highest mark in the league. (Harmon also gave Jefferson high marks in his performance running just about every single route on the field, against any defensive coverage). Since he entered the league, Jefferson leads the NFL in expected points added per route run. ESPN’s analytics department has him as the second-best receiver since he entered the league—I’ll be emailing them soon to correct the error, since I’m sure they meant to have him at no. 1.

The only real way Jefferson falls short in the GOAT debate is in touchdowns. Jefferson has 34 in his career. Rice and Moss had 53 apiece through 64 games. Jones had a reputation for not catching many touchdown passes, and he had the same 34 scores that Jefferson has through 64 games. Jefferson’s production simply hasn’t translated to the end zone in the way it has for some of the other stars of the game. Perhaps, at 6-foot-1, his frame and skill set aren’t a good match for the end zone. Perhaps he’s just been unlucky. At least this year he has four touchdown receptions in four games, tied for the league lead and far outpacing his usual rate—if that continues, he could catch back up in the scoring department. I certainly wouldn’t count him out.

What’s more is that Jefferson may be the one wide receiver in this league who is truly QB-proof. Top wideouts like Adams and Chase have seen their numbers sink when playing with subpar or hobbled quarterbacks—but not Jefferson. Last season after Cousins tore his Achilles, Jefferson went on to tally 32 receptions for 503 yards and two touchdowns with a combination of Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Joshua Dobbs throwing him the ball. That line includes the Week 14 game when Jefferson left in the second quarter with a chest injury. Take that game out, and he averaged 119 yards per game without Cousins. It shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s succeeding with Darnold as well—Jefferson is the rare mega talent who can succeed with anybody. (And if there’s any question why Darnold is having a career resurgence in 2024, Jefferson is a big part of the answer). 

Do you remember how we used to talk about Aaron Donald? In his prime, Donald wasn’t just the best defensive tackle in the league—he was on a whole different level from all the players at his position. He was the ultimate X factor, defying comparison to any other interior lineman. Jefferson should be thought of in a similar light. Because with respect to Chase, Hill, Lamb, Wilson, and whoever else you view as being at the top of the position, Jefferson is not like those guys. He’s the best receiver in the league, on his way to becoming one of the best in history. Don’t take him for granted.

Riley McAtee