Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, Joe Burrow threw five touchdown passes, but he ended up a loser. Dak Prescott had three turnovers, but he ended the (late) night as a winner. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winner: The Lamar Jackson–Joe Burrow Rivalry
The race for Game of the Year is over. There’s no topping what we saw on Sunday in Cincinnati, where the Ravens escaped with a 41-38 win in overtime. The game was a perfect mix of high-level play from superstar players and goofy moments. It was the type of game that will make you forget there was a scoring problem across the league through the first few weeks of the season, as the quarterbacks combined for 740 passing yards and nine touchdowns.
Jackson and Burrow had no issues throwing the football over the first 57 minutes of the game before taking turns trying to blow the game. With the Bengals sitting on a three-point lead with just over three minutes left in regulation, Burrow forced a pass to Ja’Marr Chase. The Ravens picked him off, setting up the eventual game-tying field goal. And then Baltimore’s opening drive in overtime abruptly ended when Jackson fumbled a perfectly good snap and Cincinnati recovered. After three straight Bengals runs were stuffed, Evan McPherson missed a 53-yard would-be game-winning field goal (after being iced by his own coach, Zac Taylor). A long Derrick Henry run set up a short game-winner for Justin Tucker.
There were plenty of lows for both sides at the end, but this game should be remembered for the highs we saw from Jackson and Burrow. It felt like the first proper duel between the AFC North rivals. Their past meetings have been drab affairs or one-sided blowouts. And because of their respective injury problems, we had seen Jackson and Burrow square off only five times before Sunday’s thriller.
Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow’s Combined Stats in Head-to-Head Games
Both quarterbacks dominated in their own ways. Burrow played the role of the pocket passer, picking apart Baltimore’s secondary with quick, accurate throws. Jackson also did his thing from the pocket—making numerous touch passes layered over the second level of the Bengals defense—but his brightest moments came out of structure, highlighted by this bit of red zone magic.
Stiff-arming a defensive end who makes $10 million a year so nonchalantly is a 99th-percentile play, and it was the third-most impressive feat Jackson pulled off in those 12 seconds of football ecstasy. The corkscrew, fadeaway pass was easily the most impressive part of this play and is a good example of Jackson’s absurd throwing ability. Baltimore needed every bit of that ability to pull off the second-half comeback. With Cincinnati selling out to stop Henry, who was held to 30 rush yards in regulation, Jackson needed to deliver a big game through the air. He did so in a narrative-busting win.
As deflating as this loss may have been for Cincinnati, we haven’t seen the offense play that well since the team’s Super Bowl run in 2021. Burrow was surgical, Chase was explosive, and Tee Higgins was a consistent chain mover. Burrow set a career high with five touchdowns. Sure, Cincinnati is just 1-4 after this latest setback, but the offense ranks second in expected points added per play, second in success rate, and eighth in yards per play. The Bengals also have a top-10 run game by EPA, while the offensive line has allowed the second-lowest pressure rate on the season, according to TruMedia. This is the offense Cincinnati has been trying to build for a few years.
The Bengals defense has been awful, but the results should improve over the next month, with four struggling offenses next up on the schedule. With games against the Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders coming up, Cincinnati could go on a run before it gets a rematch in Baltimore on November 7. Meanwhile, the Ravens have matchups with the Commanders and Bucs before the schedule eases up with games against Denver and Cleveland. Depending on the shelf life of the Steelers, that rematch could be for first place in the AFC North. At the very least, it should have massive ramifications for the playoff race. Here’s hoping it’s half the game we saw on Sunday.
Loser: Sean McDermott’s Clock Management
We were robbed of a second overtime thriller between AFC contenders thanks to McDermott’s rivalry with competent clock management at the end of games. Nothing will ever top “13 seconds,” but turning this situation into a 23-20 loss in regulation deserves a chef’s kiss.
The Bills were out of timeouts and needed 65 yards in no more than 31 seconds to get in range for a game-winning field goal. The margin for error was nonexistent. And with Houston sitting on three timeouts, the Texans had their own chance to get the ball back to kick a game-winning field goal. Milking the clock had to become Buffalo’s main objective at that point. Instead, Josh Allen launched a downfield incompletion to Keon Coleman, which stopped the clock and essentially forced Buffalo to lean into the bit and call two more passes to try to convert. Both fell incomplete, and the Bills punted. Houston’s game-winner quickly came to fruition.
While this was mostly a clock management blunder, field position ultimately sealed Buffalo’s fate. With the ball on the 3-yard line, Bills punter Sam Martin had little room to operate and actually got off a nice kick considering the situation. But with Buffalo’s protection unit needing to hold on to its blocks a beat longer to prevent a game-losing blocked kick, Houston was guaranteed to get a good return. Robert Woods got it to Buffalo’s 46, C.J. Stroud completed a quick pass to get it to the 41, and Ka’imi Fairbairn took care of the rest.
McDermott took the blame for the loss in his postgame presser and will have to answer questions about his game management all week. Buffalo is 3-2 after starting the season with a three-game win streak. Whatever goodwill McDermott had built up over the first three weeks is gone after being blown out by Baltimore and handing Houston a win in back-to-back games. With an upcoming road game against a Jets team that has given Buffalo fits over the past two years—including two inexplicable losses to Zach Wilson—things could get even uglier for the veteran coach.
Winners: Late Bedtimes
The Steelers and Cowboys made us earn it. If you made it through the NFL’s marathon day, which started at 9:30 a.m. on the East Coast with Vikings-Jets and ended at 1 a.m. after inclement weather delayed the kickoff of Steelers-Cowboys nearly 90 minutes, you were treated to an electric ending in Pittsburgh, where Dallas barely escaped with a 20-17 win after Dak Prescott found Jalen Tolbert on fourth down for the game-winning touchdown with only seconds remaining.
The Cowboys tried their best to give away the game. Prescott turned the ball over three times, including an aimless deep interception that set up the go-ahead drive for Pittsburgh late in the fourth quarter. Prescott also left points on the board with a red zone interception right before the half and was strip-sacked on the Pittsburgh 11-yard line on the final play of the first quarter. If that wasn’t enough, Rico Dowdle coughed up the ball on a second-down run two plays before Prescott’s game-winning throw, but Prescott fell on the ball.
Outside of the turnovers, Prescott played efficient football, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and 0.19 EPA per dropback. But that would have been a footnote had Prescott been unable to find Tolbert in the end zone on a must-score fourth down in the game’s final minute.
Despite the final score, Dallas dominated the game. The defense held Justin Fields to 131 passing yards on 27 attempts and gave up only 92 yards on the ground. With the win, the Cowboys moved to 3-2, and more importantly, they narrowly avoided a week of uncomfortable questions.
Losers: The Browns and Deshaun Watson
Watson stinks at football. I’m not sure the analysis needs to go any deeper than that after another brutal outing for the Browns offense in a 34-13 loss to the surging Commanders, but let’s go deeper anyway. Watson was bad in all the same ways he’s been bad since taking over as Cleveland’s starting quarterback in 2022: His throws were inaccurate, he ran into pressure in the pocket, and he made terrible decisions with the football. He ended the game with a QBR of just 8.5, per ESPN. That’s not even the worst performance of his season to date, which came back in Week 1, when he posted a 7.6 QBR in a loss to the Cowboys.
Watson is averaging minus-0.30 EPA per dropback after five weeks. That’s the worst start to a season for any Browns quarterback since the turn of the century—which is a very high (or low?) bar to clear—and only Will Levis, a quarterback with a propensity for absurd turnovers, has been worse this season.
This is where I remind you that the Browns handed Watson a fully guaranteed $230 million contract in 2022 and are locked into at least three more seasons of paying him to embarrass himself every Sunday. It doesn’t feel like this situation could get any worse financially, but trust me, it can. Watson’s cap hits in Cleveland have ranged from $9.4 million to $27.9 million over the first three years of the deal. Over the last two, they will balloon to an untenable $72.9 million. A restructuring would prolong the team’s financial commitment to Watson, and straight up cutting him would leave the Browns with a $172.9 million dead cap charge. The front office could ask Watson to do the right thing and take a pay cut to give this team a chance to compete over the next few seasons, but a player whose NFL future is murky at best is unlikely to do that. And Watson doesn’t seem very concerned with doing the right thing.
The Browns are stuck with Watson on their payroll, and it sounds like they’re stuck with him in the starting lineup. After Sunday’s game, head coach Kevin Stefanski said Watson would remain the starter going forward despite calls from fans to see backup Jameis Winston take over. Cleveland still seems to be stuck in the “denial” phase despite all of the evidence suggesting it’s time to park Watson on the bench. Here’s the most damning of that evidence.
Of the quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks for Cleveland since 2022, only fifth-round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been worse for the Browns by EPA per snap, per TruMedia.
Watson has been thoroughly outclassed by journeymen Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco. It’s easy to say now, after seeing Flacco light it up for the Colts the past two weeks—including a three-touchdown performance in Jacksonville on Sunday—but the Browns would have been better off just keeping their $232 million shame on the bench and hanging on to the quarterback who led this team to the playoffs last season.
As easy as it is to make Watson the face of Cleveland’s dysfunction, the franchise’s problems start at the top, with owner Jimmy Haslam. He not only ultimately made the decision to trade for a player who had 24 pending civil suits for sexual misconduct and/or sexual assault at the time but he also broke league precedent by handing him a fully guaranteed deal. With the NFL investigating yet another sexual assault lawsuit filed against Watson, there is a chance that Cleveland can wriggle its way out of Watson’s contract if he faces further league discipline. But chances are the Browns will be stuck with Watson for a few more seasons—and stuck with Haslam for even longer.
Winners: Davante Adams to the Jets Rumors
As much faith as I had in the Aaron Rodgers–Garrett Wilson connection before the season, I’m ready to abandon the idea that these two will emerge as one of the most effective connections in the league. This may seem like an odd time to abandon hope. Sure, the Jets dropped a winnable game to the Vikings in London, but Wilson “broke out” with 13 catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown in the 23-17 loss. But Rodgers targeted Wilson 22 times just to get to those totals. That kind of stat line may qualify as a decent day for a receiver catching passes from Bo Nix, but the Jets will need more out of their only viable receiving threat if they’re going to make a run to the postseason.
Beyond the numbers, there is a slight disconnect between Wilson and Rodgers. The two have struggled to connect on throws outside the numbers—particularly on back-shoulder fades—and have connected on only two passes over 15 air yards. The connection, particularly on deep passes, doesn’t look like it’s getting any stronger after Rodgers missed a wide-open Wilson for what could have been a game-winning touchdown.
The lack of explosive plays has Wilson on pace to set career lows in receiving yards and touchdowns, and Rodgers seems to have just as much trust in Allen Lazard as he does in Wilson. That’s exciting for Lazard, but it’s not conducive to an efficient passing game.
Wilson has a bright future, but developing chemistry with Rodgers that resembles what the quarterback had with Adams in Green Bay could take years—and these Jets just don’t have that kind of time. For better or worse, this team is locked into win-now mode. It may be naive to forfeit future assets in a trade for the suddenly available Adams, who requested a trade from the Raiders last week, but general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will likely be headed for unemployment if they can’t get this team to the playoffs.
For that to happen, the Jets passing game must find explosive plays somewhere. They have the third-lowest explosive play rate in the NFL, ahead of only Chicago and Cleveland, and have just one explosive gain off of play-action, per TruMedia. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has no answers in the run game, which might help set up some deeper passes, and has offered no schematic advantages with his play calling. Loading up on receiving talent and letting Rodgers cook may be the last card these Jets have to play.
Losers: Panthers Fans
As a Panthers fan, I had to turn off Chicago’s 36-10 win over Carolina to protect my mental health. I had seen enough of Caleb Williams running circles around the Panthers pass rush and picking apart its woefully overmatched secondary. If you have the misfortune of rooting for this godforsaken team, don’t click this link.
The decision to turn off the game was a prudent one. Not only did the Bears cruise to a win in an uneventful second half, but Bryce Young, a walking reminder that Carolina traded away the pick that Chicago eventually used on Williams, made a garbage-time cameo.
It would have been easier to stomach all of this if Williams continued to struggle as he had over the first couple of games. But the 2024 first pick is improving by the week and has put together three good performances in a row after a rough start.
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Williams looks good in all the ways Bears fans would hope. He’s creating out of structure and making off-platform throws with relative ease, and his quick-game accuracy has been on point since Week 1. On Sunday, he made Carolina look like a Pac-12 defense. And he’s also impressing in surprising ways. Williams’s comfort in the pocket seems to grow by the week. He’s routinely working deep into his progression, and he’s taken full command of the Bears offense at the snap, which is rare for a rookie quarterback. He’s providing plenty of flash, but it’s the substance he’s put on tape that should make Bears fans most excited … and have Panthers fans like me dreaming of what could have been if David Tepper just practiced a little patience two offseasons ago.
Winners: Kyler Murray and Jonathan Gannon
With 5:03 left in the third quarter, the 49ers lined up on first down at the Arizona 14-yard line with a 10-point lead. Until then, San Francisco had little issue moving the football, and another score felt inevitable. The Cardinals, clinging to a 6.8 percent win probability according to ESPN, were staring at a 1-4 start to a season that had begun with so much promise. That’s a hole that second-year coach Jonathan Gannon, whose record in Arizona would have fallen to 5-17 with a loss, may not have been able to climb out of. But Gannon’s defense shut out the 49ers over the last 20 minutes, which gave Murray enough time to lead a comeback and steal a 23-21 win. Gannon earned his first signature win as a head coach, and the Cardinals moved up within a game of first place in the NFC West after the Giants upset the Seahawks in Seattle.
Arizona caught a number of game-turning breaks in the win, including a first-half injury that knocked 49ers kicker Jake Moody out of the game, but Gannon’s defensive adjustments and bold decision-making ultimately won it for the Cardinals. Gannon, realizing his team was outclassed by the defending champs, turned the game into a series of coin flips with some aggressive decisions. If the Cardinals could just win one or two of them, they had a chance to pull out the win. The first coin flip came after Arizona cut the lead to 23-19 early in the fourth with a Murray touchdown pass: Gannon kept his offense on the field for a two-point conversion instead of taking the extra point and cutting the lead to three—as most coaches would have done.
The next coin flip came midway through the fourth quarter. The Niners had driven deep into Arizona territory once again and were just 8 yards away from a game-sealing touchdown before reserve linebacker Jesse Luketa made a diving effort to punch the ball out of Jordan Mason’s hands.
The Cardinals won the ensuing fight for the ball, setting up a potential go-ahead drive for Murray and the offense. That drive nearly fizzled out around midfield before Murray and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. bailed out Arizona with a clutch throw and catch on fourth down.
The Cardinals tried their darndest to bleed the clock to set up a game-winning kick as time expired, but the 49ers defense held, and Arizona gave the ball back with 97 seconds left on the clock. There was just enough time for Brock Purdy to launch a game-winning drive. But that drive was over before it really began. Another coin flip: Gannon dialed up a gutsy blitz that gave safety Jalen Thompson an unblocked path to the 49ers quarterback. Thompson hit Purdy right before he could deliver a pass to an open George Kittle, the ball popped in the air, and Kyzir White made a diving interception to put the 49ers away.
If any of those three plays went in San Francisco’s direction—or if Moody just didn’t get hurt attempting to make a tackle on a kickoff—Arizona’s season would have likely been all but over, and Gannon would have been fielding questions about his job security. Instead, the Cardinals notched a season-changing win, and this young team looks like it took its first step in the right direction.
Winner: Defense and Special Teams Scoring
After a rough September for NFL offenses, scoring was up across the league in Week 5, with an average of 50 points scored per game before Monday Night Football. Offenses are certainly playing better, but they don’t deserve all of the credit for Sunday’s scoring boom. As many fantasy football players already know, defenses and special teams also did their part, scoring six touchdowns across the 12 games played on Sunday, swinging a number of actual games—and millions of fantasy games, I’d imagine—in the process.
Vikings linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel kicked off the non-offensive scoring fest with this pick-six of Aaron Rodgers in London.
That was Van Ginkel’s second pick-six of the season, so don’t blame him for the low scores this year.
Giants tight end Bryce Ford-Wheaton finished off the Seahawks with a 60-yard return after Jason Myers’s game-tying field goal was blocked in the final minute.
In between those plays, Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II turned an errant Gardner Minshew throw into a 100-yard interception return.
And that wasn’t even the longest defensive touchdown of the day. That honor went to Seahawks defensive back Rayshawn Jenkins, who returned an Eric Gray fumble 102 yards and skipped into the end zone.
The 49ers special teams and Rams defense also found the end zone in losing efforts. Surprisingly, this wasn’t even close to touching the record for the most non-offensive TDs in a single week. In Week 12 of the 2020 season, defense and special teams units combined for 11 touchdowns. So maybe we’ve finally found a solution to the league’s scoring dip.
