Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on what happened the previous weekend, with an eye on what’s to come.
The Kyle Shanahan offense doesn’t look like the Kyle Shanahan offense.
It’s possible that this is just the year from hell for the San Francisco 49ers. They were not really competitive in a 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. They are 3-4 on the season. And they have lost wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for the season with a knee injury. Pretty much every “Super Bowl hangover” cliché applies to this group, and they’re also dealing with a lot of bad luck that is out of their control. But you know what they can control? How they structure and design and call the offense. And Shanahan’s decisions on those fronts have been one of the bigger surprises of the 2024 season.
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Brock Purdy was bad against the Chiefs. There’s no sugarcoating it. But the way that Purdy is being asked to play has gone under the radar this season. Think of how we traditionally have spoken about Shanahan’s offenses. Efficient run game. Play-action. Scheming up easy throws. Quarterback-friendly. But let’s take a look at their numbers. We’re not seeing those typical things from this version of the 49ers offense. The 49ers rank 15th in rushing DVOA. They were second last year. Purdy is throwing into a tight window on 21.8 percent of attempts, which ranks second behind only Dak Prescott. Last year, that number was 12.8 percent, which ranked 25th. He’s holding on to the football longer than last year, throwing downfield more, and using play-action less.
There are some simple answers to the why here. One, the run game just hasn’t been as good without Christian McCaffrey, who is on injured reserve with Achilles tendonitis. The 49ers are still trying to run the ball. They are the fourth-most run-heavy team on early downs. They just haven’t been effective at it. And two, the injuries at wide receiver have played a role—especially on Sunday once the 49ers were without their top three guys in Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings.
Let’s be clear: The 49ers offense is far from a disaster. They are 10th in DVOA (sixth in passing). But it hasn’t looked right. And maybe more importantly, it hasn’t featured the easy buttons that we’re used to seeing from a Shanahan offense. We’re going to learn a lot about this team the rest of the way. Will Shanahan get back to his roots? What will the passing game look like without Aiyuk? Are we going to see more ugly Purdy games that look like what we saw vs. the Chiefs? The 49ers aren’t dead yet, but their ability to problem-solve will be one of the most interesting leaguewide story lines the rest of the way.
The Raiders have to try to trade Maxx Crosby.
Listen, I don’t like it either, but this is what needs to happen. The Raiders suffered a ho-hum, unremarkable 20-15 loss to the Rams on Sunday. Starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell left the game with an injury, and Gardner Minshew threw three interceptions after replacing him. Watching that game, it was hard to think anything other than, “What the *&^% is this team?” They’ve got nothing: No quarterback, no talent, no plan. The way this season is going, it’s reasonable to expect the Raiders will be looking for a new coach and a new general manager once again at the end of the season. If that happens, whoever gets hired would be tasked with figuring out a way to make the Raiders relevant again. And there is no easy fix for that. First-round pick Brock Bowers is a productive, exciting tight end. Crosby is an elite defensive end. Beyond that? The cupboard is bare.
That’s why the Raiders have to make Crosby available ahead of the trade deadline on November 5. Their only chance at sustained success is a patient rebuilding plan that includes taking a swing on a quarterback in the draft in the next year or two. They could sit tight and hope that they’re bad enough to land one of the top picks, or they could be proactive and acquire draft capital that gives themselves the flexibility for a plan that actually makes sense.
Crosby is a spectacular player. His 33.5 sacks since the start of the 2022 season are second to only Myles Garrett. He plays a premium position. He never comes off the field. He is 27 years old. And he is on a below-market deal through the 2026 season. He’s precisely the type of player you never want your team to lose if you’re a fan. But those qualities also make him precisely the type of player who could bring back a monster return in a trade.
What could that return look like? A deal that includes two first-round picks. I’m not telling you that the Raiders would definitely get that back in return, but they might. In 2022, the Rams reportedly offered two first-round picks for edge defender Brian Burns. The Bears’ deal to acquire Khalil Mack from the Raiders in 2018 included two first-round picks. Crosby is better than Burns was in 2022 but probably not quite as good as Mack was in 2018. In other words, two first-round picks is a reasonable ask. Edge rushers in their prime rarely become available. All it takes is one team to be aggressive.
Think about where such a move would leave the Raiders. One, it would make them worse the rest of the season. I am not recommending a full-on tank, but they’re 2-5 right now and would have the eighth pick in next year’s draft if the season ended today. Getting into the top five or even the top three wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. A Crosby trade would give them two firsts in 2025 and two firsts in the following year’s draft. Now we’re talking about a team that has the resources to potentially take a quarterback, while also adding talent at other premium positions. It’s not guaranteed to work. But it is at least a plan that would give the Raiders a chance. And when was the last time the Raiders had one of those?
Let’s (maybe) ease up on Jerod Mayo just a little bit.
This is a classic “two things can be true” situation:
- Mayo isn’t inspiring much confidence in his first year as Patriots head coach.
- There’s a lot of revisionist history about the last year in New England.
In case you missed it, the Patriots got stomped by the Jaguars Sunday in London. Jacksonville ran the ball over and over and over again, and New England couldn’t stop them. They had penalties and special teams miscues. It was ugly. After the game, Mayo said the Patriots were a “soft” football team. Bill Belichick took issue with that characterization. And now Mayo is feeling the heat. The Patriots have lost six in a row, and their minus-76 point differential is ahead of only the Panthers. I am not here to tell you that Mayo is doing a great job. He’s not. And it’s possible that he’s going to be a complete disaster.
So what’s my issue? We need to be realistic about the situation that Mayo was walking into. I know everyone forgets now, but this was a poorly coached team with Belichick last season. They were 28th in special teams DVOA. They committed stupid penalties. They were 4-13 and ranked 29th in point differential. In the offseason, the Patriots decided to bring back most of the same players who produced those results. Belichick still had his fastball when it came to defensive scheming (he also had stud defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who hasn’t played this season). But pretty much everywhere else, he was a minus. So why would any reasonable person have expected this to be a competitive team in 2024?
Again, it’s entirely possible that Mayo is a disaster. He’s challenged his players through the media. They could respond. Or they could take offense and turn on him. But the guy has coached seven games and has one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Let’s be realistic about expectations, and let’s not pretend like the 2023 version of Belichick would have this group performing significantly better.
Joe Schoen should throw his phone into the Hackensack River.
OK, that might be extreme. It’s a pain to get a new phone. But Joe, my guy, do not—I repeat, DO NOT—pick up if owner John Mara calls this week. Yes, I know it’s generally bad practice to ignore your boss when they’re trying to get in touch with you, but this is the exception. Give him a few days to cool off. Tell him you had bad service. Say you dropped your phone in the toilet. Say you were feeling nostalgic about the good ol’ land line and are trying to adopt a simpler lifestyle. Whatever it takes. Because if he finds you, you’re getting crushed.
The Giants delivered one of the most entertaining seasons of Hard Knocks in recent memory last offseason. The most prevalent story line centered on running back Saquon Barkley. It was clear in just about every scene that Mara wanted Barkley back and Schoen didn’t. Schoen’s thought process, in many ways, was sound. Barkley was entering his seventh NFL season and was going to have to be paid like a top-five running back. The Giants had other needs. It was reasonable to think that committing money elsewhere was the logical move. The only problem? Through seven weeks, the nightmare scenario for Schoen is playing out.
The Eagles are 4-2, and Barkley has been their best player. His 761 rushing yards are second in the NFL. He’s averaging 6.1 YPC. And his rushing success rate is the highest of his career. On Sunday, Barkley put the Eagles offense on his back in his return to MetLife Stadium, rushing 17 times for 176 yards. He ran both through and away from Giants defenders and was an explosive play machine. All season long, when the Eagles offense has been in a rut, Barkley has provided a spark. This is the best version of him we’ve ever seen.
The Giants, meanwhile, are 2-5. They had 104 total yards in the first three quarters of Sunday’s blowout loss before head coach Brian Daboll, in search of an offensive spark, replaced quarterback Daniel Jones with Drew Lock. He did not find one. On the season, the Giants’ minus-50 point differential ranks 27th in the NFL. Their quarterback situation is a disaster, and their roster needs work.
At some point, Schoen is going to have to convince Mara that he deserves more time, and the Barkley decision is going to come up. The old “process over results” line might not be enough to save him.
