Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’ll focus on midseason awards.
Lamar Jackson is the midseason MVP.
A funny thing happened on Sunday afternoon. Jackson faced a Broncos defense that had been performing like one of the best units in the league and shredded it, completing 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. The ball barely hit the ground. The Ravens had nine real possessions, and those resulted in five touchdowns, two field goals, and two punts. Again, this was against a really good defense! And guess what? No one was really surprised. This has become the expectation for Jackson and the Ravens. Based on DVOA, the Ravens have the best offense in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. The difference between them and the no. 2 Commanders is roughly the same as the difference between the Commanders and the no. 13 Eagles.
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Jackson has never looked better. He’s first in expected points added (EPA) per pass play and dropback success rate. He’s also tied for 17th in the entire NFL with 505 rushing yards. Is it all Jackson? Of course not. Derrick Henry has been terrific, and we’ll have more on him in a minute. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has done a good job. And the pass catching group has performed well. But let’s be real: There’s no argument that the supporting cast is lifting Jackson up. It’s so clearly the other way around. Jackson is in full control of the most reliable offensive unit in the NFL. I know what some of you are saying: He’s got to do it in the playoffs. If we’re talking about Jackson’s legacy, I completely agree. But if we’re discussing who the MVP has been through the first nine weeks, he’s the clear choice.
Just for fun, let’s fill out a top five ballot:
2. Jayden Daniels
I hear a lot of people bending over backward to explain why the Commanders offense is successful for reasons other than Daniels. Let’s do a little exercise: Time travel back to August, and tell me what your reaction would have been if someone had made the argument that Daniels was set up for success because of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, his offensive line, and his supporting cast. You would have laughed hysterically. The reality is that all the other factors look good because of Daniels.
Daniels ranks second behind Jackson in EPA per pass play and fifth in dropback success rate. The Commanders have schemed up a nice run game. But c’mon. Daniels’s threat as a runner (459 rushing yards on the season) is a big reason for that success. The idea that the scheme is creating easy throws for him is not backed up by the data. On third and fourth downs (the obvious passing situations), Daniels ranks second in EPA per pass play. Aside from Terry McLaurin, he’s throwing to pass catchers (Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Austin Ekeler, Olamide Zaccheaus) that any team could have signed this offseason. And he’s making it all work. The Commanders have the second-best offense in the NFL, are competing for the top seed in the NFC, and have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises. Maybe Daniels won’t be able to sustain this pace, but through nine weeks, he absolutely deserves to be here.
3. Josh Allen
Remember how this was supposed to be a reset year for the Bills? I’ll admit—that’s how I viewed it going into the season. But Allen has reminded us once again that when you have a great quarterback in his prime, you always have a chance, and you never really take a step back. He is third in EPA per pass play and has made more “How did he do that??” throws than any other quarterback in the NFL. Think about what would happen if you plugged an average quarterback into this Bills offense. They would be an afterthought. But with Allen, Buffalo has a top-five offense. Allen makes everyone—the pass catchers, the offensive line, the coaches—better. With receiver Amari Cooper now in the fold after a trade with Cleveland, it’d be no surprise to see Allen take over the top spot here by season’s end.
4. Patrick Mahomes
We have ourselves a classic “two things can be true” situation with Mahomes right now. One, this is far from the best version of Mahomes we’ve ever seen. Two, he still is easily among the five most valuable players in the NFL. The Chiefs offense lacks an explosive element, and Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions—yet he is still second in dropback success rate. That means that on a down-to-down basis, the only play in football more likely to produce a positive outcome than a Mahomes dropback is a Jackson dropback. The Chiefs passing game is too methodical for my liking, but it still works.
And then we should consider what Mahomes is being asked to do for his team. The Chiefs have had issues at offensive tackle, and their pass catchers have been below average (although that problem has at least partially been addressed with the recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins). Mahomes was on fire on third down Monday night against the Bucs. That’s nothing new. He’s been saving the Chiefs all season. On third and fourth downs, he leads the NFL in both dropback success rate and EPA per pass play. Even in what some might consider a “down” season, he is putting the offense on his back and making the Chiefs successful in high-leverage situations.
You could still make the case that Mahomes should be no. 1 on every MVP ballot. If we dropped him into any other team, it’s hard to see a scenario in which an offense would get worse. I’m admittedly grading him on a special Mahomes curve here by having him fourth because he just hasn’t looked the same as he’s looked in previous seasons. But I can easily see a scenario in which I’m making the case that Mahomes deserves the MVP by the time we get to the end of the year.
5. Joe Burrow
The Bengals’ underwhelming 4-5 record has virtually nothing to do with Burrow, who has played the best football of his career so far this season. He ranks fourth in success rate and sixth in EPA per pass play. The Bengals have one of the least efficient run games in the NFL, but they rank fifth in passing DVOA. Cincinnati has chosen to play a very specific style, one in which it’s much more methodical than explosive. You can play that way only if your quarterback operates with elite precision and doesn’t make mistakes. Burrow qualifies. He’s completing over 70 percent of his passes and has produced the lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays among starting quarterbacks, as charted by Pro Football Focus. On third and fourth downs (obvious passing situations), only Mahomes has a higher success rate. Burrow can operate from the pocket, and he can create through second-reaction plays. That’s why I still can’t give up on this Bengals team. As long as Burrow is healthy, they have a chance.
Coach of the Year so far is Mike Tomlin.
Let’s break these coaches into two categories:
Category 1: Deserving of a mention
I’ve got Sean McDermott, Jim Harbaugh, Sean McVay, Raheem Morris, and Sean Payton in this group. McDermott’s Bills are 7-2 in what was supposed to be a transition year. Their plus-87 point differential is second in the NFL. And he is absolutely doing more with less on defense with a group that is performing at a top-10 level. Harbaugh’s Chargers have faced the NFL’s easiest schedule, but they’re 5-3 and have an excellent chance of making the playoffs. That franchise needed a culture shift and a quick turnaround, and Harbaugh has provided it. The inclusion of McVay here might surprise some, but the Rams have been decimated by injuries, lost Aaron Donald to retirement in the offseason, and are breaking in a new defensive coordinator. Along with quarterback Matthew Stafford, McVay has kept the Rams afloat. It’s been an underrated coaching job.
As for Morris, there were a bunch of ways in which this Falcons season could have gone sideways in a hurry—especially after they drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round after already signing Kirk Cousins to a massive deal in free agency. I don’t think Atlanta is a great team, but Morris has them prepared to play every week, and they’re in first place in the NFC South. And finally, Payton. I know he’s arrogant and sometimes (often?) comes across as obnoxious, but the man can coach. The Broncos’ over/under for wins this season was 5.5. They are currently 5-4 and have a chance to make the playoffs. Payton has done an objectively good job.
Category 2: The actual contenders
I’ve got Dan Quinn, Dan Campbell, Matt LaFleur, Kevin O’Connell, and Tomlin here. Quinn took over a downtrodden Washington franchise, is coaching a rookie quarterback, and has the Commanders at 7-2. I tend to give Daniels (see above) more credit than Quinn for the turnaround, but reasonable minds could disagree. Campbell might be a boring pick, but it’s not easy to come off of a devastating playoff loss like Detroit suffered last season and pick up where you left off. The Lions look like the best team in the NFC. They have a clear identity. And they play with joy. I am someone who foolishly made fun of Campbell during his early days with the Lions. I now think he’s one of the best coaches in the NFL.
Turn on the Malik Willis tape, and you’ll see the straightforward case for LaFleur. The Packers went 2-0 in Willis’s two starts, and LaFleur completely changed the offense on the fly to position his quarterback for success. The Packers have had some ups and downs, but they have to be thrilled to be 6-3.
O’Connell is my runner-up. Getting Sam Darnold to perform at even a mediocre level is a HUGE accomplishment, given what we’d seen previously in Darnold’s career. Also: A big part of being a great head coach is assembling a great staff. Any team could have hired Brian Flores as its defensive coordinator, but O’Connell was the one who actually did it in 2023. O’Connell has done a phenomenal job.
But ultimately I landed on Tomlin, who just continues to do Tomlin things. In past years, that meant the Steelers winning ugly, close games that they had no business winning. Nerds like me would constantly point to the Steelers’ unimpressive point differential and say things like, They can’t keep getting away with this! But this year’s Steelers have been different. They are 6-2, and it’s not a fluky 6-2. In the AFC, only the Bills have a better point differential. Those results should not be possible when you are navigating a quarterback competition between Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. Yet once again, Tomlin has found a way to figure it out. No coach has done more with less through nine weeks.
Offensive Player of the Year at the halfway point is Derrick Henry.
My name is Sheil Kapadia, and I have been running back pilled. I used to be the guy saying things like: Do not pay running backs. It’s a supply-demand issue. The injury risk is too great. It’s not a good use of resources. And to be clear, I’m not completely backing off of those takes. But this season is certainly making me rethink some things—specifically in regard to two players: Henry and Saquon Barkley. I couldn’t decide which player was more deserving here, so I went to the numbers:
Derrick Henry Vs. Saquon Barkley at Midseason
There is not a whole lot separating these two players. In terms of supporting cast, Henry has a better quarterback with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, but Barkley has a better offensive line and better wide receivers (if we’re talking about how opponents have to game-plan for each back) in Philadelphia.
I looked at the Big Nerd stats, too. Henry faces eight-man boxes at a higher rate than Barkley, and he also has the edge in rush yards over expected. That’s a stat that looks at how many yards a running back is supposed to gain based on blocking, defensive alignment, etc., and then compares it to how many yards they actually gain. Henry is first in the NFL. Barkley is second.
In recent years, this award has basically gone to the most impactful non-quarterback on offense. Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson definitely belongs in the conversation, but through nine weeks, it comes down to Henry and Barkley. Ultimately, I didn’t want you to call me a Philadelphia homer, so I went with Henry because I think he has a slightly better statistical case. But if I go on local sports-talk radio in Philly this week, I might change my mind to Barkley. Don’t judge me. I’m not built for this.
Defensive Player of the Year is Fred Warner.
There are no stats that can accurately reflect what Warner means to San Francisco’s defense. He has 66 tackles, six passes defended, one interception, one sack, and four forced fumbles. The numbers are good, but what Warner means to a modern NFL defense is why he gets the nod from me. A big part of offensive football right now is about messing with and taking advantage of linebackers. Making them half a second late by using play-action or motion. Forcing them to be flawless with their eye discipline with the use of run-pass options. Asking them to stay tight in coverage on tight ends or running backs or slot receivers and cover ground and condense space in the middle of the field.
If it sounds like a hard job, that’s because it is. But Warner does it better than anybody else. Ask coaches from all 32 teams whether they’re happy with their linebacker play, and you might get a handful who say yes. That’s what makes Warner so valuable. The gap between him and every other linebacker is bigger than it is with the top player at any other position in the NFL. There are defensive linemen like Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Dexter Lawrence, and T.J. Watt who are also deserving of the award, but I don’t think any of those guys have separated from the pack of pass rushers just yet. Warner has been fantastic and is the key cog on a 49ers defense that ranks fifth in DVOA. He has a chance to be the first off-ball linebacker since Luke Kuechly (2013) to win the award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year is Jayden Daniels.
You saw that I had him second in my MVP stack, right? So yeah, I’m not going to overthink it here. Since 2000, there have been 64 rookie quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks through the first nine weeks of the season. Among that sample, Daniels ranks third in EPA per pass play, barely below Dak Prescott (2016) and Ben Roethlisberger (2004). He had the Monday night moment in Week 3 against the Bengals and the Hail Mary in Week 8 against the Bears. It’s not hyperbole to think that this could be the best rookie quarterback season we’ve ever seen.
Raiders tight end Brock Bowers has been terrific. Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers have both been excellent. But the choice is Daniels. And it’s not close.
Defensive Rookie of the Year is Jared Verse.
It’s still early, but so far it looks like the Rams got an absolute steal by selecting Verse at no. 19. Verse’s 3.5 sacks aren’t going to wow anyone, but the other metrics are eye-popping. His 39 pressures rank seventh—not among rookies, but in the entire NFL! Over the past five seasons, no other rookie has had more pressures through the first nine weeks of the season. His 14 QB hits are tied for seventh leaguewide. And his pressure rate (18.3 percent) is fifth behind Garrett, Danielle Hunter, Will McDonald IV, and Hendrickson.
Verse’s game is built on power and physicality. Oftentimes, rookies with that profile take time to adjust to NFL competition, but that hasn’t been the case with Verse. He’s been absurdly productive from day one. Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell has been excellent and is my runner-up, but Verse is the easy choice.
