In early September, I asked 24 questions that would shape the NFL season. The questions varied in scope, from ones with leaguewide implications, like “How will the new kickoff rules change the game?” to those that were more granular, like “Can the Chiefs rediscover the deep ball?” Now that we’re at the midpoint of the season, we can start to answer those questions and develop a better idea of how the rest of the season will play out. Let’s dive in.
1. Will the Detroit Lions be able to play man coverage?
Detroit revamped its secondary in the offseason with the explicit intention of playing more man coverage this season, and the project is paying off. The Lions are playing man at a top-three rate, and they’re doing it at a high level. They rank seventh in expected points added allowed per snap and sixth in defensive success rate, per TruMedia. They’re also forcing tight-window throws at the highest rate in the league.
In May, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn told reporters that he likes to “smother the offense,” and that’s exactly what his defense is doing to opponents. With offseason pickup Carlton Davis and first-round rookie Terrion Arnold lining up on the outside and Amik Robertson, another free agent signing, and 2023 second-round pick Brian Branch sharing coverage duties in the slot, this group is formidable. Building it wasn’t cheap—but the Lions are getting their money’s worth.
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The one concern is how this will all hold up against a more talented receiving corps. As the numbers show, Detroit’s man coverage has been largely effective, but it’s had less than stellar performances against the Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings—three teams that have at least two talented receivers. Even in Sunday’s impressive win over the Packers, the Lions had some issues manning up against Green Bay’s deep group of pass catchers. How the rebuilt secondary fares in potential postseason rematches against those teams or in games against the loaded 49ers and Eagles offenses will determine how far this team will go. Through nine weeks, Lions fans should be cautiously optimistic.
2. How will the new kickoff rules affect the games?
Meh.
The new “dynamic kickoff” hasn’t been all that dynamic through the first half of the season. Return rates are up and the leaguewide average starting field position has jumped by about 4 yards, but the plays haven’t been more exciting than they were in the past. Three kicks have been returned for a score to this point. But we had two touchdown returns at the same point in 2023—on 177 fewer plays.
Kickoff Returns Through Week 9, 2023 Vs. 2024 (TruMedia)
The new kickoff is more interesting from a strategic standpoint—coaches have compared the blocking concepts they’re employing to those they use on run plays—but I wouldn’t say they’re more entertaining to watch. With the kicking team lining up deep into opponent territory, the returner just has to break through one line of defense before reaching open grass.
On the old kickoff, returners had to make their way through several waves of tacklers, which stretched out the excitement of the play for a bit longer.
Then again, the league’s goal wasn’t necessarily to make kickoffs more exciting. It was to incentivize teams to return kicks while not subjecting players to violent collisions. So far we are seeing significantly more returns, but it will take years and far more injury data than is currently available to assess the new rule’s effect on player safety.
3. How will Derrick Henry fit into the Baltimore Ravens offense?
With Henry nearly on pace for a 2,000-yard season, the easy answer is: extremely well. There were some initial worries about how he would fit in a shotgun-based offense after he previously operated mostly under center with the Titans. Even Ravens coaches had expressed concerns before Henry hit the practice field and reminded everybody that he’s 250 pounds and can run over 20 mph.
“I’m not going to lie, I questioned that,” running backs coach Willie Taggart said in June. “Until he got here, and [I saw] the big man move hiws feet, and I’m like, ‘Whoa.’”
Through nine weeks, the Ravens have used under-center formations for most of Henry’s runs, but he’s actually been more effective when carrying the ball from the gun.
Derrick Henry Has Been More Efficient on Shotgun Runs (TruMedia)
In the past, Baltimore’s run game had been powered by the gravity Lamar Jackson has on option runs when lined up in the shotgun. That’s still the case in 2024, but bringing in Henry has provided a major boost to the Ravens offense when Jackson goes under center. Baltimore is generating more explosive plays in the ground game, but the real benefit has come in the play-action pass game. Jackson has used play-action on every under-center dropback he’s taken this season, and he’s averaging 9.6 yards and 0.46 EPA per play with a 64.7 percent success rate, per TruMedia. Those are all top-five marks this season.
Henry allows the Ravens to do more on offense while also improving all the other facets of the scheme that were already successful. When Baltimore has failed in the postseason, it’s been due to a lack of options on that side of the ball. Everything was built around Jackson in some way, and when good defenses homed in on that, the Ravens didn’t have another star who could make them pay. Now they do, and it’s costing them only an average of $8 million in salary cap space for this season and next. Not a bad deal.
4. Which team has the best “zone read” backfield in the NFL?
Shockingly, it hasn’t been the Ravens. Jackson and Henry have been productive on “read-option” runs, but Baltimore ranks “just” sixth in total EPA (4.3 EPA) on those plays, per Sports Info Solutions. Washington (10.1) leads the NFL and is nearly doubling the second-place Giants (5.7). The Commanders also lead the league in yards and touchdowns on those plays. Philadelphia ranks second in those two categories and leads the NFL in attempts. The Cardinals and Packers, thanks to Malik Willis, have also performed well on those plays.
Jayden Daniels has been the key to Washington’s success on the ground, and it hasn’t really mattered who’s lined up next to him in the backfield. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler have put up similar numbers on option plays. In Philadelphia, meanwhile, Saquon Barkley is doing almost all of the work. His 290 rushing yards on those plays lead the NFL by a wide margin, and Jalen Hurts has run for only 47 yards on his 16 option attempts. It’s gone the other way in Baltimore, where Jackson (199 yards on 37 attempts) is outproducing Henry (80 yards on 17 carries) on the option plays. Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson may have challenged those teams for the “zone read” title belt, but Taylor has been hurt and ineffective, and Richardson just got benched—though I’d pay a lot of money to watch a 39-year-old Joe Flacco lead an option-based attack.
5. The pistol is back. Will it stick around this time?
For at least one season, it has been. So far in 2024, there’s been a slight increase in pistol usage compared to the 2023 season, but it hasn’t proved to be a significant tool—teams are using the alignment on just 6.8 percent of snaps. That number will jump in the near future, though, if coaches are monitoring the results. For starters, pistol-pass plays have been more efficient this season than non-pistol passes.
Pistol-Pass Plays Have Been More Efficient in 2024 (TruMedia)
The pistol also makes the play-action pass game more effective, so it’s a useful tactic for teams whose quarterbacks prefer not to go under center. Shotgun play-action passes are generally less efficient—and while the only difference between shotgun and pistol formations is the running back’s alignment, that’s a significant change for the defense.
When an offense is in the shotgun, with a back flanking one side of the quarterback, defenses know which direction a run is headed: the opposite of the running back’s alignment. When the back is behind the quarterback, there are no directional tells. So runs are harder to defend in the pistol, the play-action passes work better, and the quarterback gets a better view of the field. What’s not to like?
The Falcons (who have a 33 percent pistol usage rate this season), Dolphins (28.4 percent), and Rams (19.6 percent) are leading this charge. No other teams use it on more than 12 percent of snaps. But several should consider deploying it more often. Baltimore (6.4 percent) shreds teams from the pistol, averaging 8.9 yards per play. The Bengals (6.8 percent) are averaging 0.81 EPA and 13.8 yards per dropback when they pass out of the pistol and 0.88 EPA and 15 yards per dropback when they use play-action. Joe Burrow is one of those quarterbacks who prefers the shotgun, so his pistol success isn’t surprising.
Detroit is the one team that hasn’t lined up in the pistol this season. The Lions offense is doing just fine without it. But the other teams outside of Atlanta, Miami, and Los Angeles should be attempting it more often over the second half.
6. Will Tua Tagovailoa’s 2024 offseason project go as well as the 2023 one?
Tagovailoa dropped weight in the offseason to improve his mobility and playmaking out of structure. But after a Week 2 concussion spoiled the first half of his season, I’d much prefer to see Tagovailoa keep his scramble rate low. The 26-year-old, who returned to action two weeks ago, is scrambling on 3.6 percent of his dropbacks, compared to 2.7 percent in 2023. That’s not a significant increase, but the increase in production has been significant. Tagovailoa’s averaging 9.0 yards per scramble and has a perfect success rate on those plays. In Miami’s loss to Buffalo on Sunday, he moved the chains on fourth-and-4 with a clutch scramble. He scrambled for a first down in his return against Arizona and got a standing ovation for sliding.
Tagovailoa’s concussion came at the end of a scramble, so I won’t suggest that he do this more often. And based on the numbers, he’s doing a fantastic job of picking his spots. As long as he’s picking up a first down with his legs every other week, defenses will have to account for it, and Miami’s pass game will be even harder to defend.
7. Can Sean McVay get the Rams run game humming in Los Angeles?
Only one team is averaging fewer yards per carry than the Rams, so the answer, thus far, has been a resounding no. But I’ll call this one inconclusive. The Los Angeles offensive line has been hit hard by injuries going back to training camp, and that group was the main source of optimism around the run game coming into the season. The line should return to full strength by the end of the month, though: Left tackle Joseph Noteboom potentially hits the field this week, McVay announced Monday that the team opened the 21-day return windows for guards Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila, and Rob Havenstein is slated to return in a week or two. So let’s revisit this question in December.
8. Which teams nailed their uniform makeover?
After seeing all of the new uniforms in action, I’m sticking with the Jets as my answer. The football has been crappy, but they look fantastic. The throwback uniform they wore for the Week 6 loss to Buffalo was exquisite.
Given how New York’s season has played out, I do have to rethink my theory that a good uniform redesign improves the on-field results. There are always outliers.
9. Can Gardner Minshew do enough for the Raiders to compete for a playoff spot?
Lol.
10. Which version of Jordan Love will we get this season?
The 2024 version has dealt with two lower-body injuries and a spike in interceptions, but so far, Love is playing far better than he did over the first half of 2023. His EPA average is up, his success rate is higher, and he’s averaging more yards per dropback.
Love’s EPA numbers are down compared to his strong second half in 2023, though, and the increase in interceptions (and drops by his receivers) is responsible for the gap.
Jordan Love Through Nine Weeks, 2023 Vs. 2024 (TruMedia)
Outside of the interceptions, Love has looked like the quarterback we saw at the end of last season—the one who earned the biggest deal in NFL history. And Matt LaFleur defended Love this week and called questions about the picks “really annoying.” But those questions won’t stop if Love keeps giving away the ball.
11. Will Tom Brady be any good at calling NFL games?
Brady hasn’t been an instant star like Tony Romo or Greg Olsen, but he hasn’t been bad in his new job as Fox’s lead analyst. Maybe his first two months would have produced more memorable moments if he hadn’t been assigned to so many crappy Cowboys games. So far, he’s made news by being a little hard on Brock Purdy during the 49ers-Chiefs game and by criticizing Brian Branch’s ejection in Sunday’s Lions-Packers game—-but that was a story only because of the restrictions imposed on Brady by the league after he became a minority owner of the Raiders. You can count the number of exciting calls or insightful analyses from Brady on one hand. He’s shown plenty of promise, but he’s got a long way to go before we can compare him to the top analysts at other networks.
12. Which rookie quarterback is the most “pro ready”?
We have a clear winner based on the numbers:
2024 Rookie Quarterbacks, by the Numbers (TruMedia)
Daniels is running away from the field in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race and is tied with Jared Goff for fourth in MVP betting odds on FanDuel. It turns out that he was more than ready for the pros, but Daniels didn’t fit the mold of a typical “pro-ready” prospect. At LSU, he took sacks at an alarming rate and didn’t run the most advanced offense. The Kliff Kingsbury dropback passing scheme isn’t terribly complicated, either, which has eased the rookie’s transition to the pros, but with his combination of precise accuracy and athleticism, Daniels would be thriving in most systems. So maybe the idea of what makes a quarterback pro ready needs to be updated.
Caleb Williams, on the other hand, is the rookie quarterback who’s being asked to operate like a veteran. From the jump, the Bears have trusted the first pick to call his own protections and adjust plays at the line of scrimmage.
Williams needs to speed up his process—every rookie does—but he’s getting through his progressions more often than not and giving his receivers time to run their routes before he goes into creation mode. The results aren’t there yet. Williams’s deep-ball accuracy has been the primary issue, but Chicago’s offense is also giving him minimal support; play calling and an awful run game have been the two biggest obstacles. Despite that, his tape is encouraging. Good results should follow if the Bears coaching staff gets its shit together.
Elsewhere, Drake Maye (more on him later) is playing well in a bad Patriots offense, and Bo Nix’s game has transferred to the pros. He has had some ugly moments in the pocket, but the value he adds as a runner has made the Broncos passing game somewhat viable.
13. Which young offensive coordinator will become the next coaching star?
Ben Johnson may have extended his lead at the top of the list of head coaching candidates, as some of the young hopefuls—like Bobby Slowik in Houston and Ryan Grubb in Seattle—haven’t lived up to their preseason hype.
But some other options have emerged. Liam Coen has taken the Baker Mayfield reclamation project to another level in Tampa Bay, and the Bucs offense is still rolling even after the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Buccaneers have the fifth-most efficient offense by EPA; they’re fourth in scoring, sixth in yards per play, and second in both third-down conversion rate and red zone efficiency. Salvaging the run game, which had been a problem for years, may be Coen’s most impressive feat. The Bucs rank fourth in rushing average, fifth in EPA per run, and seventh in explosive rush rate, per TruMedia. Coen’s also cooking in the short passing game, which has made Mayfield’s job a lot easier. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in EPA on throws behind the line of scrimmage and has generated more EPA than the second- and third-place teams combined. These are all signs of a well-designed offense and sharp play calling. If Coen can keep it up over the second half of the season, he’ll get plenty of interview requests for a head job.
Other possible candidates include Joe Brady in Buffalo, Atlanta’s rookie OC Zac Robinson, and Kingsbury, who has Daniels playing like an MVP candidate. And while Todd Monken isn’t exactly young, he’ll get some more interview requests after leveling up Baltimore’s offense.
14. Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs rediscover the deep ball?
Mahomes has the lowest average depth of target among QBs with at least 140 dropbacks. He has become a checkdown merchant in recent years, and I’m starting to worry that the old Mahomes, who never turned down an opportunity to chuck it downfield, is gone for good. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic. Xavier Worthy is his only healthy deep threat with Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown out injured, and the rookie wideout has an aDOT of 11.4 yards, according to TruMedia. That’s similar to Tyreek Hill’s aDOT over his last three seasons in Kansas City. Now Worthy just needs to learn to get his feet down.
Unfortunately, DeAndre Hopkins’s arrival hasn’t led to a major increase in downfield passing. Mahomes’s aDOT in the win over Tampa Bay on Monday was just 6.3 yards. He did connect with Hopkins on a deep ball against the Bucs, but it required a tremendous throw and catch.
It’s never looked this difficult for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
15. Does the Vic Fangio defense still have it?
The Fangio coaching tree isn’t looking as lush as it did three years ago, but the man at the root of it is still getting it done. In just one year, Fangio has completely turned around an Eagles defense that ranked 30th in defensive success rate last season. Let’s just ignore the fact that Fangio was replacing one of his former assistants in Sean Desai and instead focus on how the Eagles now rank 10th in the same stat.
Fangio has Philadelphia playing more man coverage than it did a season ago, which is a shift for the veteran coordinator. Throughout his career he’s generally preferred a zone-heavy approach, but in Darius Slay and rookie Quinyon Mitchell, he has the dudes to play tighter coverage, and he’s taking advantage. That’s a positive sign for Fangio, who was criticized by Jalen Ramsey for not properly using the skilled Dolphins secondary he had in 2023. He’s still adapting. It may not be enough to earn him another head coaching job, or to rehabilitate the image of his entire tree, but he’s got the Eagles back in the playoff hunt.
16. How much time will Jim Harbaugh need to win with the Chargers?
The man just wins everywhere he goes. Harbaugh needed literally no time to start winning. The Chargers won their first two games and haven’t fallen below .500 since. They’re sitting at 5-3 at the season’s midpoint and have a winnable game coming up against Tennessee on Sunday. The schedule gets more challenging after that. They’ll take on Cincinnati on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, then play Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Denver in consecutive weeks. The Athletic’s prediction model gives Los Angeles an 84 percent chance of making it to the postseason. If Harbaugh pulls it off with this roster, he should be the favorite for coach of the year.
Most of the credit for this start belongs to first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who followed Harbaugh from Michigan after serving two seasons as his DC there. The defensive personnel hasn’t changed much from the past few seasons, when the Chargers finished near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. But the coverage has been tight, the front seven has been tougher, and the results have completely flipped. After clamping down on the terrible Browns offense in a 27-10 win on Sunday, the Chargers now lead the NFL in defensive efficiency by EPA.
The results have been mediocre on the other side of the ball, but the offense is gaining momentum now that Greg Roman has fully unleashed Justin Herbert on early downs. The Chargers are spamming play-action on first and second down, and the 26-year-old has hardly missed a throw.
Harbaugh is getting elite play out of his quarterback and defense. That’s typically enough to get a team to the playoffs.
17. Can Brock Purdy do it again?
That depends on how we’re defining “it.” If it means “replicate his league-leading results from 2023,” then the answer is no. Purdy is still producing at a high level, but his numbers now are more in line with Jimmy Garoppolo’s during his best years in San Francisco.
49ers QB Seasons Under Shanahan (TruMedia)
But it would be unfair to expect Purdy to replicate his 2023 results without the same supporting cast. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t played all season due to Achilles soreness, and the 49ers receiving corps has been banged up. So what Purdy has done this season, with limited options around him, has been arguably more impressive.
McCaffrey returned to the practice field this week, so San Francisco’s offense should be back to full strength soon. Having McCaffrey in the backfield will take the playmaking stress off Purdy, who’s holding the ball longer than any other quarterback in the league and throwing downfield far more often than he did a year ago. Kyle Shanahan should be able to recreate the easy buttons in the offense that fueled Purdy’s statistical success last season. And at the very least, McCaffrey’s presence will prevent teams from dropping two safeties deep as much as they have against the 49ers over the first half of the season, which has to be a win for the QB and head coach.
18. Has the game passed Mike Zimmer by?
Dallas has been without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence for most of the season, so this might be unfair to Zimmer, but the answer has to be yes. The Cowboys have sunk to the bottom of the league in just about every defensive metric. They’re giving up explosive plays at a high rate, they can’t stop the run, and Zimmer’s blitzes aren’t working. These are all symptoms of a poorly coached defense, and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better.
19. Can Garrett Wilson be Aaron Rodgers’s new Davante Adams?
The Jets answered this question when they traded for the actual Davante Adams in October. The trade has led to better results for Wilson, but there’s still an awkward chemistry between him and Rodgers. Things didn’t immediately click for Adams and Rodgers once they reunited, either, but New York’s win over Houston last week offered some hope that the former Packers can still run an effective two-man game. Adams caught seven passes for 91 yards and his first touchdown in Jets green, which put the game away.
Wilson is turning it on, as well. He hauled in two touchdowns against Houston and has averaged 88 yards per game over the past three games. He may not be the new Adams, but he’s starting to look like the old Wilson, who set franchise records for receptions and receiving yards in the first two years of a career.
The win against Houston revived the passing game and the team’s playoff hopes. Just three teams sit between the Jets and the final playoff spot in the AFC standings, and New York is favored in its next two games before a Week 12 bye. The Jets play only one team (Buffalo) with a winning record after that bye in the schedule.
20. Is this the last dance for the Joe Burrow–Ja’Marr Chase–Tee Higgins triumvirate?
It’s been two months and we’re not any closer to a resolution. Chase and the Bengals ended negotiations without a deal when the season kicked off. He reportedly turned down an offer that would have paid him $35 million per season due to issues with the structure of the deal, but it shouldn’t take too long for a deal to get done once the two sides start talking again after the season. And even if they don’t get a deal done, the Bengals hold a fifth-year option on Chase for next season.
The resolution of Higgins’s contract situation looks more dicey. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent next March unless Cincinnati uses the franchise tag on him for a second year in a row. The cost of doing that—around $26 million—wouldn’t be that high, but the Bengals could save money by doing the sensible thing and paying the guy. Their best shot at winning a Super Bowl would be by recreating the magic of the 2021 offense, which they’ve kind of done this season when Higgins has been out there. If the front office needs more convincing that this unit needs Higgins, it can just look at his on/off splits this season.
Joe Burrow With Tee Higgins on and off the Field, 2024 (TruMedia)
With the 25-year-old on the field, Burrow has played like an MVP candidate. When he’s been hurt, Burrow’s numbers have been far more mediocre. I’m sure the offense will be fine in the long run if the Bengals let Higgins walk next spring, but it could be so much more than fine with him in the fold.
21. Will Sam Darnold be the next QB to resurrect his career?
Darnold has played well in Minnesota, but it’s still unclear whether he’s done enough to earn a starting job next season. He ranks 18th in the league in EPA per dropback, so he’s not lighting defenses up, and he’s had a few ugly turnovers in high-leverage situations. He certainly hasn’t done enough to convince Minnesota to bring him back to start over J.J. McCarthy. That was always very unlikely to happen.
Those mistakes will be hard to ignore when QB-needy teams evaluate his performance next offseason, and there may not be many open jobs in 2025. If the Giants move on from Daniel Jones, they’ll likely draft a quarterback. The Raiders will be drafting one, as well. The Saints are financially handcuffed to Derek Carr for at least one more year. The same goes for the Browns and Deshaun Watson. A reunion with the Jets seems unlikely even if Aaron Rodgers retires. The Steelers have a good thing going with Russell Wilson. There could be openings in Tennessee and Indianapolis, but Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are still young. Perhaps a team will give Darnold a chance to start next season, but it’s not the slam dunk it appeared to be a month ago.
22. Can the Bills replace Stefon Diggs by committee?
Only Jackson and Daniels have generated more EPA on dropbacks than Josh Allen this season, so the Bills passing game is doing just fine without Diggs, whom the Bills traded in the offseason and who recently went down for the season with a torn ACL. Rookie Keon Coleman is on pace for a 788-yard, six-touchdown season. Curtis Samuel, a free-agent pickup, has been a bust, but Mack Hollins, a less heralded addition, has already found the end zone three times. Khalil Shakir, who’s been on the team since 2022, has emerged as Allen’s favorite target and leads the team in receptions with 42. That could soon change once Amari Cooper, who came to Buffalo in a trade three weeks ago, gets more comfortable in the offense. Before the season, the receiving corps looked like a potential weakness for the Bills. Now it looks like one of the deepest groups in the league.
23. How quickly can Drake Maye unseat Jacoby Brissett in New England?
Maye took over in Week 6 and isn’t giving back the job any time soon. Turning to the rookie hasn’t led to more wins, but it’s made the Patriots offense more watchable. And Maye is playing good football outside of the occasional bozo play, including his game-ending interception in overtime against Tennessee on Sunday.
But the game would have ended in regulation without this bit of Maye magic.
Maye has been the quarterback pre-draft scouting reports suggested he could be. He’s layering passes over the middle of the field, throwing accurately from awkward platforms, and scrambling his ass off when plays break down. Preseason concerns about his footwork seem silly now, and Maye is doing a good job of protecting himself behind New England’s leaky offensive line. The 22-year-old is balling.
24. So … who’s going to win the Super Bowl?
I had the Ravens beating the Packers in my preseason prediction, and I’m sticking to that despite Green Bay’s disjointed start to the season. If Jordan Love can get healthy, and stop with the mindless interceptions, I’ll feel much more confident about the pick. And with Lamar Jackson playing like this, I don’t feel so dumb for picking against the undefeated Chiefs.
