A Thinking Draft Fan’s Guide to the 2024-25 College Basketball Season
The NBA is already keeping a close eye on lottery odds ahead of next year’s draft. But Cooper Flagg isn’t the only premier player to be had. Here are five big questions scouts and draftniks are mulling over as the best prospects begin to square off against one another.
First and foremost, I’d just like to say congratulations. You officially weathered the storm of following the 2024 NBA draft, a class so shallow in star power that the Hawks selected a high-upside role player with the no. 1 pick. This year’s class shouldn’t have that problem. While we don’t know for sure which prospects are destined for greatness, there are several potential major-impact players who could be in the mix next June.
Not sure which ones to keep tabs on as the college basketball season ramps up, starting with this week’s Champions Classic? We’ve got you covered below, with the five most pressing questions scouts and draftniks will be asking while closely watching the NCAA this draft cycle. (The international crop is interesting in its own right, but we’ll get to that another time.)
I’m excited to be fully in the NBA draft lane this season, and I hope you’ll tag along and humor my dives, both shallow and deep, on the development of these players throughout the season. We’re aiming to have more boots-on-the-ground video, player interviews, snazzy scouting reports and rankings, and a bunch more.
1. Is Cooper Flagg the no. 1, no matter what?
The shorter answer is yes, but there are some caveats.
I dived deep into my thoughts on Flagg in a video that I released in September, before he’d played a second of basketball for Duke. While I’d still love for you to watch the video, the yada yada of my takeaway is that while there are unanswered questions about Flagg’s offensive ceiling, because he does a bit of everything, this guy fits on any team. Need some perimeter size and athleticism? Awesome, have some Flagg. So-so rim protection at the 5 and could use a weakside shot blocker to help? Have some Flagg. Ball sticking in your offense? Need a smart cutter who can connect to the opposite side of the floor or throw lobs? Here’s a prescription for several hundred milligrams of Flagg (not to be mixed with alcohol).
Most teams assume that they need to find an offensive engine before figuring everything else out. The reality is that every Batman sorely needs a Robin. Every Coen brother needs ... well, another Coen brother. The winning in Michael Jordan’s career is inextricable from Scottie Pippen. These are extreme examples, but you get the idea.
My hunch is that Flagg is that Pippen-esque elite supportive piece who has something to add in nearly every area, with the chance to mature into something more. The question to weigh against that idea is whether there is a player in this class that is a more certain bet to be an elite primary option on offense. That’s what we’ll be monitoring.
It’s possible that the two most likely candidates are on the same Rutgers team: Dylan Harper and Airious “Ace” Bailey. Dylan Harper is the son of five-time NBA champion Ron Harper and the younger brother of Ron Harper Jr., who’s grinding away for the Maine Celtics in the G League. Dylan projects as the stronger prospect in the family—he was a consensus top-five player in his class and is a shade taller than his older brother.
Harper the Younger is a sturdily built lead guard who has little issue driving through the chests of on-ball defenders, although I have questions about that translating seamlessly to the next level. He’s not especially wiggly or overly creative as a ball handler, but that in and of itself shouldn’t be seen as a disqualifying factor. Harper could very well thread the needle between Cade Cunningham’s size and pace with the ball and improve on it with a scoring package that is eerily reminiscent of Jalen Brunson at times. While finishing and playmaking craft off of one foot has become en vogue, Dylan can do both in the middle of the floor playing off of two feet, which provides a stronger base. This play in particular is incredibly impressive for a player who turns 19 in March—watch the way he stutter rips here to open a driving lane to his right, fakes a spin back to his left to get his defender behind, jump stops, and pivots off his left foot to step back the big and finish with his left hand. He’s also an invested defender, which sets him up to fit the mold of some trends that we’ll discuss later.
Bailey, the 6-foot-10 scorer from Chattanooga, Tennessee, is the other intriguing freshman at Rutgers, the kind of sizable offensive weapon that lottery teams and fan bases daydream about. The major selling point here is the cross section of legitimate NBA size and dynamic shotmaking, both off the bounce and from a standstill. The balance of that one alluring and at times overwhelmingly effective tool of creating his own shot whenever he damn well pleases and the real concern about how often and how effectively he can get off the ball reminds me a lot of the conversations that happened around Michael Porter Jr. several years ago.
The other possibility is a long shot, I admit, but I’m keeping an eye on Tre Johnson, the 6-foot-6 offensive dynamo starring for Rodney Terry at Texas this season. Johnson has had an interesting but familiar arc from his initial high school sample to now—early enthusiasm and then, inevitably, nitpicking as more and more tape on him accumulated. But he’s burst out of the gate as a wiry bucket getter with the look of someone who could become a legitimate shotmaker at the higher levels. I was blown away to see how much he’s improved his frame since the spring, looking much more filled out and comfortable operating in the middle of the floor, which could clear the way to improve his playmaking and finishing questions.
One final final wild card is the incendiary VJ Edgecombe—the 6-foot-5 guard who lit the draft internet on fire this summer while starring for the Bahamas in the Olympic qualifying games. Edgecombe, who’s playing at Baylor this season, is arguably the best perimeter athlete in the class. His streaking explosions to the rim are confounding, both in transition and in the half court, but he can put on the Superman cape and go to places that others just cannot because of his speed. The ball skills are going to be a real point of debate as this season unfolds, and that could dictate whether he’s a surefire top-three pick or someone who slips to later in the lottery.
2. Will the Calipari draft machine roll on?
John Calipari has essentially uprooted his entire operation from Kentucky, root and stem, and replanted it in Fayetteville. He reassembled the gang, bringing Kenny Payne (after one of the worst return-to-alma-mater experiments in history at Louisville) and Brad Calipari, his son, back into the fold, as well as Kentucky mainstays Bruiser Flint, Chin Coleman, and Chuck Martin. I have no idea how the wins and losses will shake out at Arkansas. My best guess is that this initial Hog squad could be challenged by some of the issues that have troubled Coach Cal teams in recent years—dependence on inexperience in an increasingly experienced high-major environment, and a cluster of bucket-getting guards not known as natural ball movers who could find themselves on the wrong side of shooting variance at critical times.
That said, there’s plenty of NBA and potentially lottery talent on this Arkansas team.
- D.J. Wagner, son of Dajuan and former top-10 high school recruit, returned to college and followed Calipari to the Razorbacks after a meh freshman season in which his offensive game was an even split of unusual finishing habits and unreliable spacing. While ankle issues did nag Wagner off and on, I have a hard time believing that’s what led to some rough shooting: His 27.7 percent clip on spot-up looks was consistent with his previous two EYBL seasons.
- You likely saw the internet go hog wild over Boogie Fland’s performance during Arkansas’s roasting of Kansas in an exhibition game. He drilled a huge pull-up 3 as the slobbering hogs tried to mount a comeback against Baylor. This is the Boogie Fland experience—on nights when his jump shot is going in, he’s going to look like a Malik Monk type who can unleash runners, fades, dribble pull-ups, and high glass finishes and hang points on anyone. When the jumper isn’t going in, his aggressiveness can drift into the “why do that at this moment?” zone.
- Purely when it comes to ball skills, Zvonimir Ivisic is one of the most talented big guys in the country. I find myself thinking of former Thunder legend Aleksej Pokusevski when I flip-flop between giddiness over an Ivisic behind-the-back pass out of a short roll to an open shooter and teeth gnashing because he just hit his quota for inexplicable illegal screens or matadored an opposing offensive player to the rim for an easy one. Wild and tiring as that flip-flopping can be, I can’t quit Big Z. I will be holding on for hope until it’s definitive and obvious that it’s not happening.
- Curious too will be the return of Trevon Brazile, a bouncy junior forward who was flashing glimpses of a face-up game before he tore his ACL during the 2022-23 season, when Eric Musselman’s roster was filled with perimeter talent that had the draft community buzzing—guys like Nick Smith Jr., Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, and Ricky Council IV.
- I’ve written this much and still haven’t mentioned Karter Knox, the 6-foot-6 wing who happens to be the younger brother of Kevin Knox II, a former Kentucky forward. Karter played for Overtime Elite last season and has an outside chance to become the best overall prospect in the Knox family, although we’ll have to wait to see whether his lack of playing time in the early season is a trend or a sign that the Knox crew is more willing to slow play the college experience this time around. Kevin, for all of his issues, was someone who I had contended would have benefited from another year of pre-NBA development. He was one of the all-time “looks the part, somehow cannot play the part” players who failed to live up to his lottery status in the 2018 draft.
I’m pretty fascinated by the potential range of outcomes for this team. A decade from now, this roster could have as many as six credible NBA players on it … or it could have none.
3. How long will it take for Duke to start Kon Knueppel at point guard?
Knueppel has one of the more enticing skill sets in the class, but when I make my way down the array of offerings from the 6-foot-7, 217-pound wing, I find myself asking what should really be an obvious question: Is Knueppel actually a point guard who’s just waiting to make the transition? Could he be a load-bearing primary option going forward?
Kon’s marketing campaign to be a top pick in this draft could align with Duke’s overall goals—the strength of this roster is in its daunting size in the 3-5 spots, with Khaman Maluach, Flagg, and Knueppel. Their three-man actions will torment defenses all season long, but the long-term effectiveness of that idea could come down to how much respect Tyrese Proctor and sophomore Caleb Foster can muster on a consistent basis. Moving Knueppel into that primary handler role could give the Blue Devils a real dribble pull-up threat who could lift Duke’s pickup point and make its perimeter size even more difficult to contain. You can already imagine the problems that he’ll create for defenses in ball screens; now imagine the headache that he’ll cause when he gives the ball up after the initial action and then comes off a screen.
This situation reminds me a bit of Devin Booker’s heading into college. I’m not making a one-to-one comp, but Knueppel is also a highly skilled and dynamic movement shooter (this guy was in the 93rd and then 98th percentiles for all jump shots during his two EYBL seasons) with a solid frame (Kon is beefier and bigger than Book, but still) and a strong foundation of footwork in the midrange who can capably throw lobs and spray skip passes. Watch the way his shooting gravity and deliberate pace allow him to manipulate this situation—simply selling this rip-through and then gathering as if he’s going to pull the trigger brings both defenders to him and allows Mason Gillis to ghost this screen and relocate to the empty corner. Then Kon attacks and dumps the ball to Gillis, who cans the 3.
Year after year, we see tantalizing athletes and hope that these types of skills materialize in their games. Kon is displaying a lot of this stuff now; I’ll be watching how many opportunities Jon Scheyer and his staff give him to really let loose.
4. How will Egor Demin respond to the Big 12?
Let’s talk shop for a second and get some strong statements off our chests. I’ll start, and then you guys can send me your tweets, passenger pigeons, whatever you’d like.
I think Demin, BYU’s 6-foot-9 slo-mo playmaker from Moscow, is quite possibly the most talented manipulative playmaker we’ve had in college basketball since Tyrese Haliburton left Iowa State in 2019. I also think he’s the most talented basketball player to wear the Cougars uniform since Danny Ainge. Jimmer Fredette was a shotmaker, I get it, but Demin’s command over the flow of the game is different.
Opinions on Demin to this point have been positive but guarded, yet the 18-year-old who last played for Real Madrid showed the entire repertoire in his debut earlier this month against Central Arkansas. He sold his shot high and then threw live-dribble darts to shooters low. He lofted lobs off the backboard in traffic—this was absolutely a pass—to his big. He caught the ball on the short roll and moved the low man with his eyes to open a kick to the corner for a 3. And if there’s a prospect in this class that has better overhanded pass touch and placement, I would love to see them.
I let out a yawp that scared the shit out of my dog as I was pulling clips from Egor’s first game under new BYU coach Kevin Young, who migrated to Provo from the Phoenix Suns. I concede the caveat that it was against a vastly inferior opponent; I just think the mental acuity of what went down in that game feels like it’ll translate to the rest of the schedule. Ignore the size of the opposition and observe the casual boredom that Demin exhibited as he yawned and made the correct decision on the first four pick-and-roll plays of the game, each with a different outcome.
The beauty here is that BYU’s transition to the Big 12 will provide Egor opportunities to be tested on both ends. I’m very eager to see what Kelvin Sampson and Bill Self draw up for him and how he handles it, not just on offense but on defense. It’s possible that we were seeing a lack of respect for the opponent, but the attention to detail from Demin was subpar at times. That will get tested in the Big 12, and it could put some stress on the idea that Demin is such an elite offensive player that his defensive issues can be tolerable on a winning team.
Will I be able to stop myself from getting overexcited? That’s the question. Better yet, I’ll ask a question that I should probably contemplate on Saturday nights while I’m tweeting and watching the Matrix sequels on YouTube TV: How high is too high? Demin is a prototypical bonus playmaker and scorer within an offense: He perhaps lacks the offensive assertiveness or toolbox to fully carry an elite offense, but he’s versed enough as a shooter and a reader of the game to hurt whatever the defense chooses to do.
5. Who will be the foremost (non-Flagg) forward?
Don’t be surprised if Georgia’s Asa Newell, the 6-foot-11 smooth-moving lefty forward who can do a little bit of everything, really climbs over the course of this draft cycle. His repertoire spans from the finesse (he’s already shown flashes that he could grow into a perimeter threat) to the forceful (he can attack the basket and finish with touch). Newell was a diligent soldier next to immense talent the past couple of seasons at Montverde Academy, primarily acting as an energizer on the offensive glass and feeding off the open spaces that would form around players like Flagg, UConn’s Liam McNeeley, Baylor’s Robert Wright III, and Maryland’s Derik Queen. I think it’s pretty critical to be exposed to a variety of roles, but he could do more this season if given the chance. (I also hope we get to see him use his right hand more.)
People who’ve had to listen to me talk for the past year have suffered (I could probably stop the sentence there) through me repeatedly expressing my enthusiasm for Derrion Reid, the sinewy but solid 6-foot-8 freshman who’s set to get major minutes this season for Alabama. Like Newell, Reid was on a high school superteam last season at Prolific Prep as a teammate of AJ Dybantsa, Aiden Sherrell, and Zoom Diallo, among others. But every single time I watched that team play, I came away feeling encouraged by the likelihood that Reid could be a switchy defensive pest on one end and a spacing, slashing, finishing force on the other.
Xavier Booker of Michigan State and Kwame “KJ” Evans of Oregon are two second-year players to watch, too. Both are looking to improve on less than inspiring freshman seasons where fleeting indicators of pro potential were visible but major questions surfaced about their aspirations to be face-up bigs out to the 3-point line.
Whew. OK. That’s certainly a start, and although a slew of names were rattled off here, there are a ton more that are worth mentioning and examining as this process unfolds. Luckily, that’s why we’re here, baby! That’s exactly what we’re going to focus on and dissect, from as many angles as possible. So, swallow the pill. Buy the ticket. Take the plunge. Apply the cream. It’s the start of a beautiful process where we giddily overreact to the highs and hastily dismiss having seen the lows. And away we go …