Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, let’s look at the surprising Arizona Cardinals and the disappointing Chicago Bears, and run through the AFC and NFC playoff scenarios.
The football hipsters might have been right about the Cardinals.
You heard the hipsters talking up the Cardinals last summer, didn’t you? When they took a break from shopping for vinyls and grooming their ’staches, they were telling anyone who would listen that the Cardinals were a sleeper playoff team. I mostly laughed. Kyler Murray had never before put together a full season of truly exceptional, consistent quarterback play, and the Cardinals defense lacked talent at all three levels. However, I am now willing to rethink my position. Those plaid shirt–wearing thrift shop enthusiasts might have been on to something.
The Cardinals delivered one of the most impressive performances of the weekend in a 31-6 victory over the Jets. The Cardinals’ seven offensive possessions resulted in four touchdowns, one field goal, one punt, and one drive on which they ran out the clock to end the game. Based on expected points added (EPA) per drive, it was the second-best offensive performance by any team in a game this season. Murray was 22-for-24 for 266 yards, one TD, no turnovers, and one sack. The one sack was a vicious blindside hit that knocked Murray’s helmet off.
Murray came right back and feathered a beautiful pass to tight end Trey McBride on third down before delivering a perfectly-placed touchdown to Marvin Harrison Jr.
And it’s not just one game. On the season, the Cardinals are all the way up to fourth in offensive success rate. Only the Ravens, Commanders, and Lions have been more likely to produce a positive play on any given offensive snap. What Arizona is doing feels sustainable. Murray looks comfortable, he’s throwing the ball accurately from the pocket, and he’s still using his legs to break the back of opposing defenses. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is scheming up explosive plays and has designed a dynamic screen game. Players like McBride, Harrison, and running back James Conner are winning their one-on-one matchups and running through and away from opponents.
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Defensively, I’m still concerned about the Cardinals’ lack of talent, but they’ve shown improvement and are all the way up to 14th in DVOA. Arizona is 6-4 and in the mix for a playoff spot and the NFC West crown. According to the betting markets, the Cardinals have faced the NFL’s toughest schedule so far, but their remaining schedule is eighth easiest. In other words, there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest that what they’re doing is flukey. The question is just whether they can sustain this level of play over the next eight weeks.
I’m not ready to admit that the hipsters were definitely right. There’s still a long way to go. But if the Cardinals keep playing like this, I’ll gladly crack open a PBR, turn on the Murray film, and admit I was wrong.
The Bears are broken, and things are about to get even worse.
We’re among friends here, right? OK, good. Then I can admit that I had the Chicago Bears making the playoffs when I made my preseason predictions. I saw a frisky defense, a capable group of pass catchers, and an offensive play caller who’d previously had at least some success. I thought Caleb Williams was stepping into an environment where he’d be able to outperform the average rookie season for an NFL quarterback.
Well, those hopes are officially over. The 2024 Bears season is dead. To be clear, this isn’t just about their loss to the Patriots on Sunday, although that’s part of it. This is about a bad situation snowballing and an organization that doesn’t have answers for how to fix it. I mean, think of all the things that have happened over the past three weeks. This has been an epically bad run:
- In Week 8, the Bears lost to the Commanders on a Hail Mary. But it wasn’t just a random gaffe. Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who was supposed to be boxing out the player who caught the pass, was yelling at fans in the stands when the ball was snapped.
- In Week 9, the Bears were not competitive in a 29-9 loss to the Cardinals. The game included wide receiver DJ Moore leaving the field in the middle of a play while Williams was looking for someone to throw to and the defense allowing a 53-yard touchdown run with 12 seconds left in the first half. After the loss, Moore was asked if head coach Matt Eberflus had lost the team. His response: “I want to say no.”
- In Week 10, the Bears were 6.5-point favorites at home and lost 19-3 to the Patriots. Chicago had 11 offensive possessions and did not score a touchdown. The Bears have now gone 22 straight possessions without scoring a touchdown.
All of this has put the Bears at 4-5 going into their Week 11 game against Green Bay. On paper, that record qualifies them as a team within striking distance of an NFC playoff spot. But in reality, it’s not going to happen. They have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. In other words, this is actually going to get worse. We can get into a long conversation about who’s to blame for what, but the bottom line is that the offense is a disaster. The Bears rank 30th in offensive DVOA, ahead of only the Raiders and the Browns. Williams ranks 32nd in dropback success rate, ahead of only Will Levis, Deshaun Watson, and Bryce Young. Again: It’s a complete disaster, and between the scheme and the coaching and the poor play of the offensive line, there’s plenty of blame to go around.
There’s no guarantee that a new head coach or a new offensive coordinator or better pass protection will unlock Wililams. Teams miss on quarterback prospects all the time, and Williams has made a bad situation worse. On the season, 28.7 percent of his pressures have turned into sacks, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s the worst mark among starting quarterbacks. Williams ranks 28th out of 34 quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. His accuracy has been all over the place. The environment has not helped Williams, but he also hasn’t shown an ability to make up for the shortcomings around him.
So where does this all leave the Bears? Most likely looking for a new head coach. When the Bears drafted Williams first overall in April, the organization’s top priority became to develop him. Eberflus is a defensive-minded head coach, and head coaches whose speciality is on that side of the ball have to nail the offensive coordinator hire. Eberflus targeted Shane Waldron last offseason after firing Luke Getsy. Eberflus had two shots at this, and neither has worked out. We’ve all seen this story before. When quarterbacks are drafted high and don’t perform, ownership makes changes to the people in charge. That’s where we’re at with the 2024 Bears—an organization that entered the season with high expectations now better be ready for an offseason of change.
Eight teams are fighting for seven spots in the AFC.
Thanksgiving is two weeks away, and Netflix is already promoting holiday movies like Hot Frosty. That means we are now officially allowed to start looking at the playoff picture. And I can’t remember the field feeling this condensed this early in a long time. I’ve got eight teams in the AFC that I’m ready to count out:
Jaguars (2-8)
Raiders (2-7)
Titans (2-7)
Browns (2-7)
Dolphins (3-6)
Patriots (3-7)
Jets (3-7)
Colts (4-6)
The Colts are the AFC version of the Bears. Their record suggests they have a chance, but c’mon. They don’t really do anything at an above-average level. The playoffs are not happening. The Dolphins got a nice win on Monday night against the Rams. Their offense looks completely different when they have Tua Tagovailoa, and their defense did a nice job of slowing down Matthew Stafford. They could be frisky down the stretch, but they’ve dug themselves too deep of a hole, and I don’t see them as a team that’s good enough to go on a real run. That leaves us with just eight teams vying for seven spots. Here they are:
Chiefs (9-0)
Bills (8-2)
Steelers (7-2)
Texans (6-4)
Ravens (7-3)
Chargers (6-3)
Broncos (5-5)
Bengals (4-6)
What’s most interesting? Those last three teams—the Chargers, Broncos, and Bengals—could be vying for two spots. The Chargers have had a couple things go their way so far. One, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL. And two, only the Bills have gained more of an advantage on turnovers, based on EPA. Their defense has been very good. Quarterback Justin Herbert is playing well, and they are well-coached. Jim Harbaugh’s team is in a nice spot with eight games left.
There’s a scenario that could haunt the dreams of Broncos fans in which Sunday’s blocked field goal against the Chiefs ends up being the play that costs them a playoff spot. But Sean Payton’s team has overachieved. Denver’s defense has played well, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix looks way more comfortable than he did early in the season.
And finally, regular readers of this column know that I’m not going to give up on the Bengals until I absolutely have to. They’ve been arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL. Cincinnati is 1-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Only the Jaguars have a worse winning percentage in such games. Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level, and Cincy’s passing game is going to keep the team competitive every week. If the Bengals can find some answers on defense (and that’s a big if!), they are going to have a chance down the stretch.
What’s fun about this is that the Bengals play the Chargers in Week 11, and they play the Broncos in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Chargers play each other in Week 16. In other words, we’ve got some high-stakes matchups coming up that will determine who gets in. DVOA currently gives the Chargers an 83 percent chance, the Broncos a 53 percent chance, and the Bengals a 32 percent chance of making the playoff field. Things can obviously change, but right now, this three-team race for two spots in the AFC is one of the juiciest subplots of the final eight weeks. Predictions? Oh fine. What do I have to lose? I think the Chargers and Bengals get in and the Broncos are the odd team out.
Eleven teams are fighting for seven spots in the NFC.
The NFC is way more wide open than the AFC. Here are the five teams I’m ruling out:
Giants (2-8)
Panthers (3-7)
Saints (3-7)
Cowboys (3-6)
Bears (4-5)
Have an issue with any of those? I didn’t think so. Here are the 11 teams vying for the seven playoff spots:
Lions (8-1)
Eagles (7-2)
Falcons (6-4)
Cardinals (6-4)
Vikings (7-2)
Commanders (7-3)
Packers (6-3)
49ers (5-4)
Rams (4-5)
Seahawks (4-5)
Bucs (4-6)
We get a huge matchup in the NFC East between the Eagles and Commanders on Thursday night. The winner will be in the driver’s seat for the division, though there’s a good chance that both teams are going to be in the playoff field. The Commanders have the second-easiest remaining schedule, and the Eagles have the third-easiest. According to DVOA, both teams have over a 90 percent chance of getting in.
There’s still plenty to be determined in the loaded NFC North. The Lions are in pole position for the division and the no. 1 seed, but the Vikings are right behind them. Minnesota’s performance in getting to seven wins so far is even more impressive when you consider that they’ve faced the NFL’s third-hardest schedule. The Packers might be the most high-variance team in the NFC. They’re talented enough to win the Super Bowl but can’t afford many slip-ups the rest of the way. Green Bay has the seventh-hardest remaining schedule. If the season ended today, the Packers would get the last wild-card spot.
The Bucs, in some ways, are the NFC version of the Bengals. They are 1-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer and have lost both of their overtime games. But Tampa Bay (at +13) has a better point differential than the NFC South–leading Falcons (+2). They also rank slightly higher than Atlanta in DVOA. One thing to keep in mind with the Bucs: They have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, and they’ve faced the second-hardest schedule so far. The issue with Tampa Bay is that it’s been hit hard with injuries. The Bucs lost wide receiver Chris Godwin for the season, and Mike Evans has been sidelined. And now they’re going to have to play without All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs for the next stretch of games. If the Bucs were healthier, I’d be tempted to take them in the division over the Falcons.
And finally, we have the messy NFC West. The Cardinals are currently in first place, and if the season ended today, the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks would all be out. San Francisco might be facing more pressure than any other team the rest of the way. They barely snuck by the Bucs on Sunday and have the second-hardest remaining schedule. Like the Packers, the 49ers are a high-variance team. They could go on a run to get back to the Super Bowl, or they could miss the playoffs entirely. Due in large part to horrendous special teams that have landed them at 5-4, the 49ers’ margin for error the rest of the way is slim. The Rams are frisky, but ESPN’s Troy Aikman said it well during the Monday night broadcast: They could eventually look back at this loss to the Dolphins as the one that kept them out of the playoffs. And finally, the Seahawks are long shots. I’m not ready to completely rule them out, but they’ve been an inconsistent team and have the third-hardest remaining schedule.
Prediction time? I’ve got the Eagles, Lions, Falcons, and 49ers winning their divisions. And I’ve got the Commanders, Packers, and Vikings getting in as wild-card teams. Sorry to the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and Bucs. See you all back here next week when I will have completely changed my mind about all of this.
