There are already two NFL teams with head coaching vacancies to fill in January—and with 11 teams sitting at two or three wins heading into Week 11, the number of open head coach spots is bound to increase.
It will be an interesting hiring cycle a year after longtime head coaches Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll were fired, as the profile of an enticing head coaching candidate is evolving. Of course, some teams will still be in search of the next hotshot quarterbacks coach or offensive play caller, the next Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, though the branches of those coaching trees have been pruned thoroughly. Belichick could be an option for desperate owners looking to make a splashy hire, but in an era when team presidents and general managers have amassed more power, it’s not a sure thing that a team will want to hire an autocratic head coach like Belichick, no matter how decorated he might be. There are a handful of other retread head coaches who will likely get looks, from Mike Vrabel, who is currently working as a consultant for the Browns, to Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury, Minnesota DC Brian Flores, and Denver DC Vance Joseph, each of whom has done impressive work in the first half of this season.
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But you know about those guys, and NFL owners know them, too. In this exercise, we’re looking at some of the most interesting up-and-coming coordinators and play callers who might wind up in the mix for head coaching jobs come January. For now, we’re not including Buffalo DC Bobby Babich, Atlanta OC Zac Robinson, and Houston DC Matt Burke—not because they wouldn’t profile well as potential head coaches down the line, but because it’s a bit too early in each of their careers to expect them to be seriously considered. That’s especially true of Babich and Burke, who are coordinating defensive schemes under experienced, defense-minded head coaches—Sean McDermott and DeMeco Ryans, respectively. I’m also leaving out Houston’s offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik; he was a hot candidate last January, but now he bears the brunt of the criticism for the team’s struggling offense.
Now, let’s talk about a handful of the best rising ball coaches we have in this league, coaches you’ll be hearing more about in January, ranked in order of how quickly team owners should make the call. Plus, we’ll take a look at two young standout defensive coordinators who could get interviews this cycle, a year ahead of schedule.
The Top Candidates for 2025
Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions Offensive Coordinator
Defining coaching characteristic: turning first downs into more first downs.
Lions offensive play caller Ben Johnson has been among the top coordinators in the NFL for the past two and a half seasons, and he’ll likely have his choice of any coaching opening he wants in the offseason. He’s earned the right to be choosy. You can take your pick of reasons why he’ll be the top candidate this cycle, but what stands out most to me is his ability to keep Detroit’s offense out of bad situations. Detroit has the third-fewest dropbacks on third down this season, and before Jared Goff’s five-intereception meltdown last Sunday night, the Lions had the ninth-lowest expected points lost to interceptions.
The crux of Detroit’s success on offense is its ability to stay far ahead of schedule. It ranks in the top five in conversion rate (moving the chains) on first-down runs and first-down passes. It’s not just that Johnson simply knows the best ways to use his talent—which there’s no shortage of on this roster—but that he blends elements from different offensive schemes to keep defenses on their toes.
Let’s look at the design of this outside zone run against Houston. Every bit of the pre-snap presentation comes right out of the Kyle Shanahan playbook—from an early shift to gauge whether the defense is rotating a particular way to a fast-tempo motion to get an extra blocker at the point of attack:
Later on in the same game, Detroit comes out in a condensed set and uses motion to widen the weakside edge and give Houston’s back seven defenders a little eye candy. This time, Detroit’s run is a trap concept called a “crunch,” which is designed to take advantage of an aggressive defensive front like Houston’s. This is the same concept Baltimore used against Buffalo, resulting in an 87-yard rushing touchdown for Derrick Henry.
Because this offense can bend defenses to its will in the run game, Johnson’s early-down play-action calls in the passing game often seem like easy money. But his play designs are as good as any you’ll see on tape each week. The Lions are sixth in expected points added on first-down passes and first in play-action throws.
Johnson was at his best in Detroit’s beatdown of Dallas earlier this season, putting on a master class in how to pick up easy yardage on early downs. In the clip below, Dallas’s defense is so concerned about Detroit’s receivers tearing up the field that it leaves the receiver on the shallow crosser plenty of room for easy yardage after the catch.
Johnson’s offense puts opponents in a particular kind of bind because even if defenses anticipate those underneath dump-off passes, Detroit always seems to have another player working in the void in the middle of the field. Take this play against Green Bay, in which linebackers sit low in anticipation of the drag route, leaving an open window for Goff to throw to the receiver who’s running the deep in-breaking route.
While a good deal of the Detroit offense works because of the talent on the offensive line, Johnson has designed a passing game that allows Goff to play as aggressively or conservatively as he needs to, without either approach coming at the expense of his offense’s down-to-down health. Any team with a young quarterback—or any team intending to draft a quarterback in 2025—should fall all over itself to have Johnson in charge of QB development.
Aaron Glenn, Detroit Lions Defensive Coordinator
Defining coaching characteristic: relentless physicality and effort.
Glenn, a longtime NFL defensive back who has been coaching with Dan Campbell since 2016, has a reputation for connecting well with players, and that will likely serve him well in head coaching interviews. But he’s also proved himself to be one of the best defensive play callers in the league this season. His aggressive approach is no secret to Detroit’s opponents; the Lions are leading the NFL in Cover 1 usage and are seventh in blitz rate. This style isn’t new for Glenn, but now he has the type of talent on the defensive roster to play that way successfully. Detroit’s success rate against the pass has improved in each of the past three years, and the Lions still rank in the top 10 in pressure rate this season even though star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury a month ago.
You’d assume that a team that plays as much man coverage as Detroit does would give up some big plays—but the Lions have the lowest explosive pass rate allowed on third down this year and have allowed just 54 percent of third-down passes to be completed against them. Glenn wants his defense to challenge offenses on every level, forcing opponents to go to extreme lengths or risk being smothered. You can see that in this clip; against a predictable offense like Dallas’s, Detroit is able to load up the line of scrimmage and manipulate the protection with stunts and twists, and no Cowboys are able to break open.
But Glenn’s scheming worked even against one of the best offensive play callers, Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur. In the clip below, Green Bay’s pre-snap setup is ideal for the Packers against Detroit’s mugged-up defensive look because the condensed offensive set should be able to create enough traffic for a receiver to get a clean release. The only way Detroit can play man coverage against a set like this is for defenders to run through traffic and stick with their original assignment. That requires playing with discipline, and they do just that; their quickness lets them get attached to Green Bay’s receivers immediately after the release. Green Bay manages to pick up the pass rush, but there’s nobody open enough for quarterback Jordan Love to push the ball to downfield.
Glenn has built a Super Bowl–caliber defense in short order. Among the first-time head coach candidates, he should be option no. 2 for any team that strikes out on Johnson.
Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator
Defining coaching characteristic: building a healthy ecosystem around his star.
By any metric, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been phenomenal in 2024. He’s been the driving force of the offense, so all conversations about this Bills team should be framed around him as a singular force of nature. Still, for all of Allen’s excellence, Buffalo remains in the top tier of Super Bowl contenders because coordinator Joe Brady, who took over from Ken Dorsey in the middle of last season, built a truly balanced offense that’s able to get the most out of Allen and the players around him.
Brady’s influence is especially evident in the Bills’ run game. Buffalo generates some chunk plays on the ground at times, but the intended design is for the run game to be a hammer, forcing defenses to load the box and get out the split-safety looks that make downfield passing more difficult. It’s working. Buffalo is seeing eight-man boxes at the highest rate in the NFL (and at the only rate higher than 50 percent), but it’s still in the top 10 in success rate and EPA per rush.
Buffalo’s offensive line is built to play bully ball, and its downhill run game is tough on the interior of almost any defensive line it faces. This style has helped running backs James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson to run behind this line, and Buffalo is averaging the fifth-most yards before contact on first- and second-down runs. Brady is smartly leaning on his big guys up front instead of asking Allen to be a superhero. In the clip below, from the team’s win over Miami earlier this month, Buffalo is running inside zone with effectively no window dressing or misdirection—none is needed when it can get so much movement off the line of scrimmage.
Even in cases where one of the offensive linemen loses his one-on-one matchup, the scheme has built-in answers. On a first down in the same game against Miami, Buffalo runs outside zone to the short side of the formation, and the center, frankly, gets his ass kicked. For most offensive lines, having the run cut off this violently would end the play on the spot, but the backside guard and tackle get so much push that there’s a clean cutback lane for Cook. When these are the results in the worst-case scenario, it’s hard to poke holes in the operation.
In the passing game, it’s a little harder to disentangle how much success is a matter of Allen’s excellence or of the scheme Brady has built around him, but I will note that Allen currently has the second-best success rate on early-down play-action passes of his career. So the passing game’s success is at least partially a credit to the scheme. Two of Allen’s best play-action reps this year came against the Seahawks because of the way Brady leveraged him and the run game to get guys open downfield.
In the clip above, Buffalo uses motion to identify the incoming blitz from the safety lined up in the box, allowing the offensive line to adjust the protection. Because Allen knows where the heat is coming from, he can confidently get to the top of his drop and rip the ball across the seams—and using tight end Dalton Kincaid on the deep crossing route from an in-line alignment helps to get him behind the second level of the defense.
In the clip below, using the same player in motion again reveals to Allen that the Seahawks are playing man coverage. With the condensed set opposite the motion, all receiver Khalil Shakir needs is a clean release, and he can run free. Allen’s play is augmented by Brady’s ability to get him the answers he needs before the ball is snapped.
While I’m not entirely sure yet just how in demand Brady will be this cycle, it is worth noting that the New Orleans job is already open, and Brady previously coached there under Sean Payton and coordinated the nearby national champion LSU offense with Joe Burrow.
Liam Coen, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator
Defining coaching characteristic: pushing all the easy buttons.
Coen built a solid résumé through the first half of the season. In the first seven weeks, before the Bucs lost receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries, Tampa Bay had the sixth-best passer rating and yards per pass attempt and was one of just seven teams averaging 5 yards per carry or more. Tampa Bay’s 18 passing touchdowns and 946 rushing yards in that span were more than it had in the past two years combined. But what should make Coen stand out from his peers is what he has done in the weeks since losing one of the league’s best receiver duos, taking an already healthy offense and catapulting it forward. He has shown he’s capable of maximizing subpar talent and crafting a system his quarterback is confident in.
When it comes to getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands and to his playmakers quickly, no one is doing a better job than Coen, who took over as Tampa’s play caller this year after Dave Canales left for Carolina. Tampa Bay has the most throws of 5 air yards or fewer this season and leads the league in EPA on those passes. The gap in EPA between Tampa Bay and second-place Baltimore on those quick, short throws is as big as the gap between the Ravens and 11th-place Las Vegas. While players like Godwin and running back Rachaad White have made some excellent plays after the catch, Tampa Bay’s general passing success is a credit to Coen’s ability to scheme all five eligible receivers out into the route. Baker Mayfield has looked good this season primarily because he’s had to get rid of the ball quickly. On those throws of 5 or fewer air yards, Tampa Bay’s average time to throw is fourth fastest in the league, at 2.15 seconds. The pair of clips below clearly shows the strength of this offense; the first play is a speed-out pass against six-man pressure from the Falcons, and the second is a play-action dump-off on a shallow crosser.
A passing scheme like Coen’s, one that makes a defense think twice about blitzing and uses the open space underneath the defense, is one that can dictate terms on early downs, and it’s helped the Bucs establish the type of running game they’ve been missing for years. Before losing their top two receivers last month, the Bucs were seeing eight-man boxes at the fourth-lowest rate in the league and had the fifth-highest explosive run rate. There will be plenty to learn about Coen’s play calling down the stretch, as Tampa spends more and more time without Evans and Godwin. If Mayfield plays well against a soft schedule and the Bucs stay in the NFC South hunt, it’ll be hard for head coach Todd Bowles to keep Coen around for long.
Drew Petzing, Arizona Cardinals Offensive Coordinator
Defining coaching characteristic: slapping a fresh coat of paint on age-old concepts.
Defensive mastermind Buddy Ryan terrorized the NFL with the 46 defense in the 1980s, but the one offense that consistently gave him problems was Joe Gibbs’s multiple-tight-end, single-back system. Gibbs’s scheme relied on outside zone and “counter trey”—using the backside guard and tackle to pull in the run game—two run plays that work against any defensive front, even one that loads up the box like Ryan’s tended to do.
Petzing, who coached under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland and Minnesota before getting his first play calling job in 2023, has built his Arizona offense on the same kinds of principles and has given it a modern spin to fit this era and his dynamic quarterback, Kyler Murray. Even though it has a young and patchwork offensive line, Arizona has had one of the best rushing attacks in the league since Petzing came on, ranking first in explosive run rate, second in yards per carry, and fifth in EPA per rush over the past two seasons.
Petzing’s menu of run game plays isn’t long, but his use of personnel groupings makes them a nightmare to deal with because of all the variations he’s built. When Arizona plays in spread looks (11 personnel), defenses have to be mindful of counter trey runs—especially if the defense is playing the pass first with two deep safeties. In the clip below, not only is the defensive look ideal to run against, but the pre-snap motion gets running back James Connor on the move at the snap. Using Murray as a potential runner keeps backside defenders from joining the pursuit. This type of run is exactly why Gibbs was such a headache for Ryan; the blitz call was designed to help the defensive front deal with some alignment issues, but it’s still outflanked because of the pulling tackle.
If defenses want to play with fewer players at the line of scrimmage, Petzing is showing that the Cardinals can still win the edge with pin-and-pull runs, another scheme advantage that works against any defense. In this clip, Arizona uses a condensed set and is able to eliminate the edge defender with a down block from a receiver. That allows the tight end and tackle to get on the perimeter and force smaller defensive backs to defend the run. Unless the defensive end beats the down block, the defense is outnumbered—and when defenses have to be alert for pullers or for Murray manipulating rushers in the option game, it puts them in a bind. This is a credit to Petzing’s play design.
Early Vetting for the 2026 cycle
Dennard Wilson, Tennessee Titans Defensive Coordinator
Jesse Minter, Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Coordinator
Defining coaching characteristics: combining multiple schemes to play sound, disciplined football.
Because defensive coaches typically have to put up gaudy numbers on winning teams to be hot names in the hiring cycle, I’m not sure we should expect serious consideration for defensive coordinators Minter or Wilson this winter. Both of these coordinators have been exposed to a wide variety of defensive schemes over their coaching careers—Minter through the college ranks and Wilson while working under a wide variety of NFL play callers. In 2024, both have found themselves leading defenses that do not allow explosive plays from opposing offenses.
You can see both of their schemes shine on third downs. For all of Tennessee’s troubles this year, Wilson’s defense is fifth in the NFL in success rate against third-down passes, at 68.3 percent.
Use the clip above as an example of Wilson’s ability to prepare his players for elite opponents. On this third-and-long against Buffalo, Tennessee is playing Cover 4 out of a mugged-up look, walking both linebackers up into the A gap. Edge rusher Arden Key doesn’t register a high-value pressure here, but his pass rush angle keeps Allen from buying extra time in the pocket. Middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV (who has since been traded) drops into the window of the in-breaking route, leaving Allen without an easy answer.
Every piece of Wilson’s defense executes its assignment to keep offenses from taking advantage of would-be mismatches, an accomplishment made more impressive by the lack of pass rushing talent he’s working with up front. Tennessee has brought that same kind of discipline to its coverage on early downs, finishing in the top 10 in passing success rate and explosive pass rate allowed, and this defense has the fifth-lowest missed-to-made tackle ratio in the league.
Minter has better edge rushing talent to work with than Wilson, but he still uses his scheme to manipulate opponents. On the third-and-long play above, Minter overloads the defensive front away from the running back, stressing protection rules and creating space and angles for his pass rushers. Arizona motions into an empty set to get an idea of whether it’s man or zone and who’s rushing. Instead of blitzing everyone no matter what, Los Angeles runs a mugged-up Cover 0 look, allowing the linebackers to read the protection before dropping into passing lanes and forcing an incompletion by impeding the vision of the Arizona receiver. This kind of simulated pressure not only denies quick throws but also gets safety Derwin James an unblocked path to quarterback Kyler Murray.
Minter’s defense hasn’t played against many elite offenses yet, though that will change with Cincinnati, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Kansas City coming up in the next month. But his unit’s domination of weaker competition suggests that his approach is stable. On first and second down, the Chargers rank top five in EPA allowed against the run and pass, and they have one of the lowest missed-to-made tackle ratios in the NFL.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see both Wilson and Minter land an interview or two at season’s end as teams vet out whether the coordinators’ schemes and philosophies fit into a vision that works for an entire organization.
